Thursday, 30 July 2015

“All’s Well!”



Baltic Dry Index. 1104 +10   Brent Crude 53.66

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

“So come with me, where dreams are born, and time is never planned. Just think of happy things, and your heart will fly on wings, forever, in Never Never Land!”

The “talking chair” with apologies to Peter Pan and J.M. Barrie.

Up first today, yesterday’s “all’s well and getting weller” from the Fed, and a rose tinted glasses spin on today’s release of Uncle Scam’s GDP figures. According to Wall Street’s stock promoting Great Vampire Squids, the GDP figure for Q1 2015 will be revised from down to up, though probably not enough to take Q2 2015s figure from up to down. The HFT algos loved it, especially after someone, probably at the NY Fed’s Liberty Street team of riggers and fix-its, turned their buying attention to the stocks of the Dow Jones Transportation Index causing it to surge. “We have ways of dealing with a Dow Theory sell signal.” Beijing’s team of market riggers and fix-its, can only look on in envy.

Below, and they all lived happily ever after.

“All the world is made of faith, and trust, and pixie dust.”

The “talking chair” with apologies to Peter Pan and J.M. Barrie.

Fed Says Labor Market Improves as It Moves Toward Rate Rise

July 29, 2015 — 7:00 PM BST Updated on July 29, 2015 — 9:20 PM BST
Federal Reserve policy makers said the job market has made further gains, keeping them on a path to raise interest rates this year for the first time in almost a decade without providing a clear signal on the timing of liftoff.
“The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday in Washington. It dropped the modifier “somewhat” from its description of the decline in labor-market slack.
With Chair Janet Yellen and her fellow policy makers saying their decisions are “data dependent,” the focus turns to figures on growth, jobs and inflation that will help determine whether the Fed raises rates in September, as many economists expect, or later in the year.
----Stocks extended gains, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbing 0.7 percent to 2,108.57 as of 4:08 p.m. in New York. Treasuries remained lower, with the 10-year note yielding 2.28 percent, up three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, from late Tuesday.

The Fed made a one-word change to its language on conditions that would justify a rate increase: It needs to see “some further improvement in the labor market,” adding the modifier “some,” and it must be “reasonably confident” inflation will move back to its 2 percent goal over the medium term.
It also dropped a sentence saying energy prices appeared to have stabilized.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/fed-says-labor-market-improves-as-it-moves-toward-rate-increase

Here's What to Watch for in the U.S. GDP Report

July 29, 2015 — 8:02 PM BST
----The release from the Commerce Department promises to offer double the usual excitement: One, it'll show how strongly growth rebounded in the second quarter from the inclement weather and West Coast port labor disputes that depressed the economy early in the year. Two, due to revisions that happen once a year and some new adjustments, it'll reveal whether gross domestic product really contracted in the January to March period.
Gross domestic product rose 2.5 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, following a 0.2 percent drop in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, probably climbed 2.7 percent.
"There's more uncertainty attached to the numbers this time, which could make things interesting,'' said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York. "You don’t know what the history is for the prior quarter, so you've got to take everybody's second-quarter estimates with a grain of salt.''
Still, it's clear that a strong job market, healthier finances backed by gains in equities and property values, cheaper gasoline and low borrowing costs are sustaining household purchases, he said.
----The Commerce Department will also tweak data going back to 2012 to take into account new information and to attempt to reduce so-called residual seasonality, which some economists believe persistently depresses first-quarter growth. Economists at BNP Paribas and Societe Generale project GDP for January through March will end up showing a gain instead of a drop.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/here-s-what-to-watch-for-in-the-u-s-gdp-report

Asian shares, dollar up on Fed's optimism; earnings in focus

Wed Jul 29, 2015 10:50pm EDT
Asian stocks tiptoed higher on Thursday and the dollar consolidated recent gains after the U.S. Federal Reserve painted a relatively bright picture of the world's biggest economy, but a deepening sell-off in commodities kept gains in check.

Prospects of stronger U.S. growth in coming months lifted Asian stocks in early trade, with Japan's Nikkei .N225 up 1.2 percent and Australian shares adding 0.7 percent. But South Korean shares .KS11 fell 0.7 percent.

A dollar-denominated index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.4 percent after Chinese stocks had a quiet opening.

Gains were muted before the earnings season kicks off in full throttle next week, when companies are broadly expected to post disappointing results on the back of weak economic data in recent months, particularly for trade.

---- "The markets still think that the world's economy remains fragile, given a fall in Chinese shares and commodity prices. The Fed surely doesn't want to screw up its exit from zero rates by hastily moving and hitting already fragile commodities market and the world economy," said Tohru Yamamoto, chief fixed income strategist at Daiwa Securities.
Subdued external demand is expected to weigh on corporate earnings, with CLSA strategists expecting first-half earnings growth at Hong Kong and Chinese companies to be weak and guidance for the third quarter unlikely to be better.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/30/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0Q402720150730

Back in the real world where Cecil the Zimbabwe lion once lived, before another unintended consequence of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money (communist money,) brought his life to an untimely, painful, and 40 hours long lingering death, all is not quite so rosey. In the real world of harsh reality, a slowing global economy, and a dying EUSSR and emerging markets, there’s no “talking chair” with a magic wand to show up to throw pixie dust around, turning down into up.

VW Lowers Sales Forecast as Russia, South America Falter

July 29, 2015 — 7:44 AM BST Updated on July 29, 2015 — 9:49 AM BST
Volkswagen AG lowered its global sales forecast for this year amid growing concern among automakers about the slowdown in China, the world’s biggest car market.
Deliveries will be about at the 2014 level, the Wolfsburg, Germany-based carmaker said Wednesday in a statement that also cited challenging markets in Russia and South America. It had previously forecast a moderate increase in vehicle sales this year.
VW’s deliveries in China dropped for the first time in a decade in the first half. The year is shaping up to be no better for the industry as a whole, as China’s economic slowdown and volatile stock market coincide with curbs on auto registrations in some areas. Carmakers may see Chinese sales drop for the first time since 1998, Ford Motor Co. said Tuesday.

“It had to be expected to some extent that the sales guidance needed to be cut, given the recent market slowdown,” said Juergen Pieper, a Frankfurt-based analyst for Bankhaus Metzler. “The others aren’t faring any better, if you look at Toyota or Peugeot.”

PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe’s second-biggest carmaker after VW, also cited the tough market in China when it reported results today. Despite more than tripling its first-half earnings, the French company didn’t raise earnings forecasts. Chief Executive Officer Carlos Tavares pinned that on an “unstable international environment,” and the company said it’s focusing on how to adapt to the steep slowdown in China.

VW saw profit from its Chinese joint venture fall 17 percent in the second quarter to 1.15 billion euros ($1.27 billion), based on calculations by Bloomberg News.

“We are keeping a very close watch on global macroeconomic trends, especially where there are uncertainties such as in the Chinese, Brazilian and Russian markets,” VW CEO Martin Winterkorn said in Wednesday’s statement.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/volkswagen-lowers-sales-forecast-as-russia-south-america-falter

Mozambique coal: boom to bust to wait it out

28th July 2015

Mozambique's coal rush is officially over and the government is now looking offshore to a gas bonanza, according to analysts at a coal conference this week in the capital Maputo.

Just a few years ago, billions of dollars poured into Mozambique, one of the world's poorest nations, in a twin scramble for inland coal and offshore gas.

The gas rush is intact, but the coal boom has come apart at the seams, hobbled by low prices, overblown expectations, and a rail and port network that remains woefully inadequate.

"At this stage Mozambique is not a coal story any more. It's very expensive, very uncompetitive and they need a lot of added capacity," said Thea Fourie, Africa economist at His, a financial and risk consultancy.

"It's really a liquefied natural gas (LNG) story now and I think the government is shifting its focus from coal to LNG," she told Reuters on the sidelines of a Mozambique coal conference organised by Informa.

In the coal region of northern Tete province, there has been a flurry of exploration permits issued and regular flights now connect this rural backwater to Johannesburg.

But real action is limited. According to Andy Lloyd, an independent geological consultant, as of November 2014, 124 exploration licences had been issued in Tete. There are 11 approved mining concessions - the midway point to getting the green light to start a project.

But only four operating licences exist and the companies involved are mostly stuck in for the long haul with deep pockets.

One is Brazilian mining group Vale, which has a balance sheet that can allow it to hang tough for the long run in a country where it has linguistic and cultural ties formed from a shared Portuguese colonial past.

Another, International Coal Ventures Private Limited (ICVL), is an Indian company which wants to expand the Benga mine it acquired from Rio Tinto in a fire sale after the global mining giant pulled the plug on its ill-fated foray into Mozambique that included a write-down of $3.5-billion.
more

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/mozambique-coal-boom-to-bust-to-wait-it-out-2015-07-28

“I'm not young enough to know everything.”

The “talking chair” with apologies to Peter Pan and J.M. Barrie.

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 57.55 Moz, Eligible 118.86 Moz, Total 176.41 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Yes it’s the incredibly stupid, anti-democratic EUSSR again. This time it’s the out of control lefty loonies of Spain. Why would any sane person want to be in a club like this? Why would anyone even want to visit Spain, let alone buy property there? Why would Great Britain want to remain in this neo-communist run, wealth and jobs destroying, backwater just to appease American President Obama who doesn’t himself actually live in the increasingly jobless EUSSR that he wants Great Britain to remain in? Wouldn’t the world be better off if he busied himself instead with stopping US police from acting like Gestapo on the long suffering hapless US public?

“One could mention many lovable traits in Merkel. For instance, after killing Greece, it was her spectacles she wiped instead of her weapon.”

Tsipras, with apologies to Peter Pan and J.M. Barrie.

Spanish man fined up to €600 under new gag laws for calling police 'slackers' in Facebook post

Wednesday 29 July 2015
A young man in Spain has been fined for calling the police lazy in a Facebook post, becoming the first citizen to fall foul of a series of controversial new “gag” laws.

The 27-year-old man, identified only as Eduardo D in national media reports, described the local police force as a “class of slackers” in a series of online posts which he described as humorous.

The Spanish senate approved the Citizen Security Law in March, and its effects came into force at the start of July. It has been widely criticised, including by UN human rights experts who said it would “unnecessarily and disproportionately restrict basic freedoms”.

According to the Spanish daily El Pais, Eduardo made three comments on Facebook criticising the money spent on police facilities in his town of Güímar, Tenerife.

He also accused local authorities of misappropriating a public building, and in a third post suggested local police were so lazy they might as well have “a hammock and a swimming pool” at each station.

Eduardo made the comments on 22 July, according to the Spanish edition of The Local, and that afternoon he received a visit from police accusing him of “making comments on social media that showed a lack of respect and consideration for Güímar’s local police”.

He now faces a fine of between €100 and €600, and told El Pais he had appointed a lawyer to fight the “madness” of the penalisation process.

One of the first uses of the nationwide so-called “gag laws”, Eduardo’s case comes amid a backdrop of a range of bizarre new laws across Spanish municipalities following the sweeping success of left-wing groups at elections two months ago.

They included the introduction of a compulsory siesta in the town of Ador near Valencia, attempts to limit tourists only to the most popular destinations in Barcelona, and the setting-up of a so-called “Ministry of Truth” in Madrid.
More

In fairness to Europe, the Brits of the Upper House can be bonkers and quite dishonest too. Other than comedy and dishonesty, what’s a House of Lords for?

Think Lord Sewel is bad? These are the seven deadliest sinners in the House of Lords

The alleged 'Lord Coke' is not a patch on these womanising, drug-taking, fridge-shooting, whoremongering, heroin-smuggling peers

By Harry de Quetteville 8:22AM BST 28 Jul 2015
Some people, such as the Prime Minister, think that Lord Sewel should quit the House of Lords after apparently being caught in a sex and drugs sting. (Update: he has now resigned.)

What they do not realise is that John Buttifant Sewel was simply upholding the finest traditions of the Upper House.

Indeed his exploits look positively tame compared to some. If you really want to see a rogue in ermine, check out this list - gathered from our extensive obituaries archive - of seven deadly miscreant peers.
More

The cure for admiring the House of Lords is to go and look at it.

Walter Bagehot.

The House of Lords is like a glass of champagne that has stood for five days.

Clement Atlee.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? A quantum computer next?

Offshore wind power gets foothold in U.S. with Rhode Island project

Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:04am EDT By Richard Valdmanis
NEW SHOREHAM, Rhode Island (Reuters) - Rhode Island's Deepwater Wind will start installing the foundations for North America's first offshore wind farm on Monday, a milestone the company says could pave the way for an industry long established in Europe but that is still struggling with opposition in the United States.

The 30-megawatt wind farm, which will include five turbines located three miles (4.8 km) off the coast of the bucolic summer tourist destination of Block Island, will take more than a year to build and is scheduled to produce electricity for the tiny island community and the mainland by the end of
next year.

"Our belief is once Block Island is up and running, it will bring offshore wind from theory to reality in the United States and open up opportunities to build larger projects," said Jeffrey Grybowski, Deepwater Wind's CEO.

Offshore wind projects have been delivering power in Europe since the 1990s, with nearly 2,500 turbines connected to the grid, but they have struggled to gain a foothold in the United States due to worries about cost, the aesthetics of towering wind turbines within view from the coasts, and the impact on birds and whales.

A rival project, Cape Wind's proposed 130-turbine wind farm off in Nantucket Sound, for example, was for years expected to be America's first such project but stalled in part due to a lack of local support. Other offshore wind projects are in limbo off of Delaware, New Jersey and New York.

Deepwater's project fits a different mold, according to Grybowski and the project's backers, French bank Societe Generale and Ohio-based Key Bank: it was relatively small and therefore easier to finance and is set in a location that has substantial built-in government and local support.

"Rhode Island was very forward-thinking and had designated a specific development area," said Alexander Krolick, Societe Generale's energy project finance director for the Americas. SocGen and Key Bank have provided about $300 million for the project, according to Deepwater, which is based in Providence.

Block Island was chosen as a wind power site by the state in 2007 in part as a solution to the island's own energy woes: it's 1,000 residents have for years relied on costly diesel-fired generators for electricity. Once the wind farm starts up, prices will drop 40 percent, according to a study by the Block Island Utility Task Group.

But about 90 percent of the wind farm's power will be shipped to Rhode Island's mainland via an undersea cable where utility National Grid will buy it for 26 cents/kwh and mix it into the rest of the state's supply, which generally ranges between 6 and 10 cents/kwh. Although it will account for only 1 percent of the state's power supply, the higher cost represents the industry's biggest challenge.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSKCN0Q113020150727?irpc=932

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: +98 Down. NASDAQ: +192 Down. SP500: +127 Down. 

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