Published March
17, 2022
Not for the first
time , China is
attempting to buy oil in yuan rather than dollars, and now it may have
found a willing seller. Saudi Arabia, which sells a quarter of its exports to
China, is considering making these sales in yuan, the Wall Street Journal reported .
These negotiations, which have surged and ebbed over the last
half-decade, are not likely to fructify soon. For one, Saudi Arabia pegs
its riyal to the dollar, so any damage inadvertently dealt to the dollar
will hurt its own currency. But the US’ geopolitical hegemony is based so
significantly on the petrodollar—with 80% of global oil transactions
denominated in dollars—that the question is ever-present. What would the world
look like if the petroyuan became the oil industry’s currency of choice?
The US’ economic dominance was built on the petrodollar
The dollar’s robust status as a reserve currency owes much to
the strength of the US economy. But it also derives from the dollar’s ample
liquidity, which is partially a result of countries maintaining pools of dollar
reserves to buy oil.
That link was forged in the early 1970s, not long after
president Richard Nixon decoupled
the dollar from gold. In 1974, Washington and Riyadh struck a deal by which
Saudi Arabia could buy US treasury bills before they were auctioned. In return,
Saudi Arabia would sell its oil in dollars—not only enlarging the currency’s
liquidity but also using those dollars to buy US debt and products. The
political economist David Spiro, in his book The Hidden Hand of American
Hegemony , described how Saudi Arabia convinced other OPEC nations to
invoice oil in dollars, rather than in a basket of different currencies.
If the yuan displaces the dollar to a sufficient degree in the
annual $14
trillion global oil trade—although what that sufficient degree would be is
difficult to say—countries will have to maintain yuan reserves instead. (At the
moment, 2.48% of the world’s reserves are held in yuan, compared to 55% for the
dollar, according to IMF data .)
Oil producers receiving yuan would have to spend it on Chinese debt and
imports, further strengthening China’s economy, but if the world was
particularly awash in yuan, other trade might start to be yuan-denominated:
metals, say, or soybeans.
The effect on both China and the US would be profound. To
preserve the yuan’s new role, China would have to ensure political stability
and financial transparency, of the kind the US promised in the 20th century.
The US’ abilities to issue dollar debt and earn dollars for exports would
decline, so its economy would shrink. In this situation, the dollar’s weakening
may trigger a vicious cycle: capital flight away from the dollar and towards the
yuan, debilitating the dollar further.
More
https://qz.com/2143450/saudi-arabia-wants-to-sell-its-oil-in-yuan-not-dollars/?utm_source=YPL
Up next, the Great Bear Market in falling yields comes to
its end. After 40 years of falling
interest rates we have entered a new bull market of rising yields.
But few professional money managers, stock and commodity
punters have any experience of sustained rising interest rate markets. Even
worse, many companies are loaded to the rafters with low interest rate debt
that they presumed could be rolled forward at low interest rates forever.
Over the rest of this decade many deeply indebted face their
comeuppance.
Bank of England hikes rates
again, adopts dovish tone as Ukraine war adds to inflation concerns
Published Thu, Mar 17 2022 8:01 AM EDT
LONDON — The Bank
of England on Thursday raised interest rates for the third consecutive
meeting as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to keep inflation higher for
longer.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favor of
a further 0.25 percentage point hike to its main Bank Rate, taking it to 0.75%.
U.K. inflation was already running at a 30-year high prior
to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent energy prices surging and will
exert more upward pressure on the central bank’s inflation projections.
At its last meeting in February, the Monetary Policy
Committee imposed back-to-back interest rate hikes for the first time since
2004 and upped its forecast for inflation to a 7.25% peak in April, against a
backdrop of strong growth and a robust labor market in the U.K.
The Bank said at the time that any further tightening of
monetary policy would depend on the medium-term prospects for inflation, which
were then propelled upward by Moscow’s assault on Ukraine and subsequent
threats to energy supply.
“Global inflationary pressures will strengthen considerably
further over coming months, while growth in economies that are net energy
importers, including the United Kingdom, is likely to slow,” the Bank said in
Thursday’s report.
The Bank now expects inflation to increase further in the
coming months to around 8% in the second quarter of 2022, and perhaps even
higher later in the year.
Given the tightness of the labor market and persistent
domestic cost and price pressures, the MPC also said that “some further modest
tightening in monetary policy may be appropriate in the coming months,” though
the risks are two-sided depending on the development of medium-term inflation
prospects.
Sterling
retreated following the announcement, shedding 0.3% against the dollar, while
the euro gained
around 0.5% against the pound.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/17/bank-of-england-hikes-rates-for-third-time-in-a-row.html
Brazil hikes key interest rate
ninth straight time
Wed, March 16, 2022, 10:17 PM
Brazil's central bank raised its key
interest rate for the ninth straight time Wednesday, as Latin America's biggest
economy continues to reel from surging inflation, now exacerbated by the
Ukraine war.
The bank's monetary policy committee
raised the benchmark Selic rate by one percentage point, to 11.75 percent, in
line with analysts' forecasts, citing inflation that "continued to
negatively surprise" policy makers.
Brazil has waged one of the most
aggressive interest-rate tightening cycles in the world as it struggles with
spiraling prices driven upward by the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic and
now Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The latest increase dialed back the
pace of monetary tightening a notch -- the previous three Selic increases had
been by 1.5 percentage points each.
But the committee "considers
that, given its forecasts on the risk of inflation expectations remaining above
target for a longer term, it is appropriate for the cycle of monetary
tightening to continue advancing significantly into even more contractionary
territory," it said in a statement.
The decision was unanimous by the
committee's nine members. It said it expected another hike "of the same
magnitude" at its next rate-setting meeting, scheduled for May 3 and 4.
More
https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-hikes-key-interest-rate-221710071.html
In incompetence news, step up the London Metal Exchange.
Oh well, easy come easy go, who needs nickel anyway?
On to today’s market opening with today’s new 12% daily
limit.
Nickel falls 8% to hit limit down
in chaotic trade on London metal exchange
Published Thu, Mar 17 2022 5:34 AM EDT
LONDON — The benchmark three-month nickel contract fell 8%
on Thursday morning to hit its new trading limit, as heavy selling continued in
metal markets.
The price hit $41,945 a metric ton as it opened for trade,
according to Refinitiv data. Nickel prices more
than doubled in a matter of hours on March 8, climbing above $100,000
a metric ton as one of the world’s top producers, China’s Tsingshan Holding
Group, bought large amounts to reduce its short bets on the metal.
Trading had to be halted as the move exacerbated a price
rally at a time when metals were already spiraling upward on Russia’s
intensifying conflict in Ukraine.
On Wednesday, the LME attempted to
resume nickel trading after the rare shut down. But a technical glitch prompted
the 145-year-old exchange to temporarily halt the market once again, before
trading reopened at 2 p.m. London time.
The LME installed a trading limit of
5% on Wednesday which was widened to 8% for Thursday. The “systems error” on
Wednesday allowed a small number of trades to go through below the newly
imposed daily price limit.
Speaking before the open on
Wednesday, Matthew Chamberlain, CEO of the LME, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe”
that the exchange was “absolutely mindful of the impact that this has had on so
many people and we need to make sure that it doesn’t happen again.”
Chamberlain said the LME had
“deliberately prioritized stability” by setting a relatively narrow range of
daily trading limits, but these could soon be widened if the exchange observed
a “more orderly market.”
Commodity prices have jumped on
supply fears related to Russia’s onslaught of Ukraine, with the ongoing war and
an array of Western sanctions raising disruption fears.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/17/nickel-falls-8percent-to-hit-limit-down-in-chaotic-trade-on-london-metal-exchange.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Finally, in that failure of diplomacy unnecessary war,
the Russian Bear growls back at the USA in a most threatening way.
Russia warns United States: we
have the might to put you in your place
March 17,
2022 9:24 AM GMT
LONDON, March 17 (Reuters) - Russia
warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the
world's pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a
wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart.
Dmitry Medvedev, who served as
president from 2008 to 2012 and is now deputy secretary of Russia's Security
Council, said the United States had stoked "disgusting" Russophobia
in an attempt to force Russia to its knees.
"It will not work - Russia has
the might to put all of our brash enemies in their place," Medvedev said.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb.
24, the United States and its European and Asian allies have slapped sanctions
on Russian leaders, companies and businessmen, cutting off Russia from much of
the world economy.
President Vladimir Putin says that
what he calls the special military operation in Ukraine was necessary because
the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia and Russia had to defend
against the "genocide" of Russian-speaking people by Ukraine.
Ukraine says it is fighting for its
existence and that Putin's claims of genocide are nonsense. The West says
claims it wants to rip Russia apart are fiction.
Russia says that despite sanctions
it can fare well without what it casts as a deceitful and decadent West led by
the United States. It says its bid to forge ties with the West after the 1991
fall of the Soviet Union is now over and that it will develop ties with other
powers such as China.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-will-put-its-enemies-such-united-states-their-place-medvedev-says-2022-03-17/
Russia claims to have ordered
crucial bond payment as it seeks to avoid historic debt default
Published Thu, Mar 17 2022 6:09 AM EDT
Russia’s Finance Ministry claimed
Thursday it had fulfilled crucial interest payments on two dollar-denominated
eurobonds, saying the order had been made to payment agent Citibank in London.
The ministry said it would later
comment separately on whether the $117 million payment has been credited.
Citibank declined to comment when
contacted by CNBC on Thursday morning.
The delivery of payment on the two eurobond coupons is a
key test for Russia. The Kremlin is staring down the prospect of its first
foreign currency debt default in over a century after the U.S. and
international allies imposed a barrage of economic sanctions over its invasion
of Ukraine.
The penalties have blocked a bulk of Russia’s gold and
foreign exchange reserves and sought to cut off Moscow from the global
financial system.
Russia had until the end of business Wednesday to fulfill
its obligations and pay $117 million in interest on two sovereign eurobonds.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reportedly said Thursday
that any potential default would be “entirely artificial” because Russia had
the funds necessary to fulfill its external debt obligations.
“The fact is that from the very beginning we have said that
Russia has all the necessary funds and potential to prevent a default — there
can be no defaults,” Peskov said, according to Reuters.
“Any default that could arise would have an entirely
artificial character,” he added.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said
Wednesday that Russia had attempted to deliver the payment and it was now up to
the U.S. to decide whether it went through.
It was not immediately clear whether
the order had been made in dollars amid speculation Russia could attempt to pay
in rubles.
Credit ratings agency Fitch warned
earlier this week that payment to bondholders in a currency other than dollars
would constitute a default.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/17/russia-claims-to-have-ordered-payment-as-it-seeks-to-avoid-historic-debt-default.html
“Men can have friends, statesmen cannot.”
Charles de Gaulle.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our
spendthrift politicians, inflation now
needs an entire section of its own.
Homes Earned More for Owners Than
Their Jobs Last Year
Increase in value of typical U.S. home exceeded median worker
income for first time, Zillow says
March 17, 2022 8:00 am ET
In this booming housing market, many homeowners earned more
last year from home appreciation than from their jobs.
Zillow
Group Inc.’s home value index, which estimates the value of the typical U.S.
home, rose 19.6% in 2021 to $321,634, an increase of $52,667 from 2020. That
figure was slightly higher than what the median U.S. full-time worker earned,
which was about $50,000 last year before taxes, according to Census Bureau data
cited by Zillow.
That marked the first time that the annual nationwide
dollar growth for the typical home value exceeded the inflation-adjusted median
pretax income, according to a Zillow analysis, which goes back to 2000.
Home
values surged last year as low mortgage-interest rates
stoked buyer demand and the number of homes on the market remained unusually
low. Remote work enabled some households to move from high-cost housing markets
to less expensive ones, where they were able to outbid local buyers. Investor
purchases of single-family homes also increased.
The surge in home prices last year has been a boon to homeowners but has made it more difficult for first-time home buyers to enter
the housing market.
“The people who are winning the housing bids, typically,
are folks who have higher incomes or have the equity from their previous home
that they’re able to put forward,” said Nicole Bachaud, an economist at Zillow.
“That’s definitely a big challenge, I think, when we consider first-time
buyers, renters, people who don’t already own a home and aren’t really
benefiting from that equity.”
Collectively, U.S. homeowners with mortgages gained more
than $3.2 trillion in equity in 2021 compared with a year earlier, according to
housing-data provider CoreLogic.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/homes-earned-more-for-owners-than-their-jobs-last-year-11647518400
Putin's war has
destabilized the world economy and inflation may be just the start
The Russian attack on
Ukraine is already affecting Canadians and their economy
Don Pittis · CBC News · Posted: Mar 17, 2022
4:00 AM ET
As images from the conflict in
Ukraine attest, war can completely change the rules of economics.
Suddenly people who only a month ago
were worried about keeping their jobs and paying their mortgages are on the
move, some to the Polish border to escape shattered homes, some to risk
their lives in battle.
By definition it is the unexpected
that perturbs the world economy and the markets that are one of its real-time
barometers.
As Canadian inflation hits new
highs and the world's most powerful central bank makes its first attempt to
restrain an explosion of rising prices, even a continent away, Russia's
invasion of Ukraine has triggered an unpredictable alteration in what we
thought were the conventions of global economics.
"The human toll is tragic, the
financial and economic implications for the global economy and the U.S. economy
are highly uncertain," is how Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal
Reserve, began his address Wednesday as he announced the central bank
would raise interest rates by one quarter of a percentage point.
That is the same increase announced
by Tiff Macklem at the Bank of Canada two weeks ago. Of course Macklem's
small rate hike was too late to stop Wednesday's rise in Canadian inflation
which hit a 30-year high of 5.7 per cent.
As Powell said in his speech, most
of the recent surge in inflation cannot be blamed on Russian President
Vladimir Putin. The exception is gas price hikes caused by the war,
which have already aggravated the latest Canadian rise.
But while its full effect has yet to
show up in the statistics, Putin's war is already pushing North American
consumer prices higher than if the war had never happened.
Asked directly about the impact of
sanctions on the U.S. dollar and its place as the default currency
for world trade, Powell explicitly refused to address the question other
than offering general support for sanctions and to say they were the
remit of politicians. He said central bankers had only been technical
advisors.
But Powell made it clear that the
Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the world's response, held both
actual and potential implications for the U.S. economy and for its
monetary policy.
"In addition to the effects
from higher global oil and commodity prices, the invasion and related events
may restrain economic activity abroad and further disrupt supply chains, which
would create spillovers to the U.S. economy through trade and other
channels," said Powell.
There are increasing signs that the
new European war has been the catalyst for a series of shifts in the global
economy, of which even higher than expected inflation is only a single
result.
"The volatility in financial
markets, particularly if sustained, could also affect credit conditions and affect
the real economy," said Powell.
The Federal Reserve chair said that
while the central bank had to be aware of those potential challenges, his
principle goal remained fighting domestic inflation with a stream of interest
rate hikes over this year and next that is expected to take rates to 2.8
per cent by the end of 2023.
But with Europe facing its biggest
war since the 1940s, there are plenty of unknowns.
"While we have pretty sophisticated economic models,
none of them are going to give us the understanding of how prolonged or what
the magnitude of the shock in Eastern Europe is going to be," said Frances
Donald, global chief economist and strategist at Manulife Investment
Management.
Contracting economies
So far analysts at Reuters and Bloomberg say the
economies of Ukraine and Russia will be the worst affected by the war,
though any figures can only be estimates.
An
International Monetary Fund report released
Monday said the Ukraine economy would contract 10 per cent
in 2022 which is more than 13 per cent below what it was expected to achieve
had there been no invasion, although in a worst case the decline could be more
like 35 per cent.
In the case of Russia, the impact of sanctions including
the collapse of the ruble and the country's stock market could lead to a GDP
decline of about 9 per cent in 2022 according
to Bloomberg Economics although other estimates range from a decline
of 15 per cent to a drop of 7 per cent.
More
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/putins-war-economy-column-don-pittis-1.6386042
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
South Korea omicron deaths surge
More than 1,100 COVID-19 patients were in serious or critical
conditions
Published March 17, 2022 8:07am EDT
Officials in South Korea tried to calm public fears amid concerns about
a faltering pandemic response as daily cases and deaths
reached record highs Thursday.
The 429 deaths reported in the latest 24 hours were nearly
140 more than the previous one-day record set on Tuesday. Fatalities may
further rise in coming weeks considering the intervals between infections,
hospitalizations and deaths.
The 621,266 new coronavirus cases diagnosed by health workers
were also a record daily jump, shattering Wednesday’s previous high of 400,624.
That pushed the national caseload to over 8.2 million, with more than 7.4
million cases added since the start of February.
The outbreak has been significantly bigger than what had
been forecast by government health authorities, who maintain that omicron is
nearing its peak. Still, South Korea has a much lower rate of COVID-19 deaths
in relation to population size than the United States or many European nations,
which officials attribute to high vaccinations with more than 68% of the population having
received booster shots.
However, some experts say health officials clearly
underestimated how the greater scale of outbreak would strain worn-out hospital
workers who had just wiggled out of the delta surge. They criticize the
government for sending the wrong message to the public by easing social distancing restrictions and effectively
communicating that omicron is mild.
Officials in recent briefings have said omicron is no more
deadly than seasonal influenza for vaccinated people and less dangerous than
the delta strain that hit the country hard in December and early January.
Transmissions were probably worsened by an intense presidential campaign leading up to last week’s election , which also appeared to have reduced political
capacity to maintain a stringent virus response.
While 1,159 virus patients were in serious or critical
conditions as of Thursday, government officials said the medical response
remains stable following efforts to expand resources since the delta outbreak,
which has brought the number of COVID-19 intensive care units to 2,800.
That’s likely close to the maximum number of ICUs that can
be squeezed out of South Korea’s hospital system, which could possibly buckle
if the number of serious COVID-19 cases reaches 1,800, said Jaehun Jung, a
professor at Gachon University College of Medicine in Incheon.
More
https://www.foxnews.com/world/south-korea-omicron-deaths-surge
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Symmetrical flow battery may
strike right balance for grid-scale storage
By Nick Lavars March 16, 2022
As
useful and impressive as current battery technology is, versions that store
renewable energy for grid-scale use may look vastly different to those inside
today's phones and electric vehicles. One promising technology is flow, or
redox flow, batteries, which store energy in fluids inside tanks that could be
upsized to satisfy energy demands as they increase. A new symmetrical design
takes us a step closer to unlocking their potential, and leans on more
environmentally friendly materials while it's at it.
Because
the energy provided by renewable sources is intermittent by nature, using it
for grid-scale applications will require large-scale storage solutions. Flow
batteries are an attractive proposition because the problem can be tackled by
storing liquid electrolytes in tanks for months at a time, with chemical energy
being converted into electricity when the fluid is passed through a special
membrane in between two tanks.
Conventional designs use a scarce and expensive metal
called vanadium as the basis for the electrolyte solution, which raises
questions over their viability as a long-term solution. Scientists working in
this space are increasingly demonstrating the potential of greener and cheaper
alternatives, finding inspiration in everything from shrimp
shells , to saltwater ,
to candles .
Scientists at the University of Groningen in the
Netherlands have conceived a different kind of flow battery that not only uses
an organic molecule in place of vanadium, but takes on a symmetrical form. The
two tanks in a flow battery generally hold fluids with different compositions,
but scientists have made inroads with symmetrical designs by using hybrid
molecules that serve the purposes of both fluids, though these quickly
compromise its performance.
"The drawback of this approach
is that only one part of the molecule is used on either side," said Edwin
Otten, Associate Professor of Molecular Inorganic Chemistry at the University
of Groningen. "And, during use, reactive radicals appear that degrade over
time. This makes stability a problem."
Otten and his team were on the hunt
for a molecule that could solve this stability issue and both accept and donate
electrons to effectively do the job of two molecules, negating the need for a
hybrid approach. They believe they have found the answer in what's called a
Blatter radical, which is a bipolar organic compound with intrinsic stability.
The compound was put to use in a small electrochemical cell, where the
scientists proved its viability over 275 charge and discharge cycles.
"We need to bring this up to
thousands of cycles; however, our experiments are a proof of concept,"
said Otten. "It is possible to make a symmetrical flow battery that has
good stability."
The scientists say the Blatter radical molecule is
relatively simple to make and scaling up production for industry use is
possible, though first they'll need to create a water-soluble version of it for
use in flow battery tanks, and then conduct larger scale tests.
"The crucial test is to see whether our compounds will
be stable enough for commercial applications," said Otten.
The research was published in the Journal
of the American Chemical Society .
Source: University of Groningen
https://newatlas.com/energy/symmetrical-flow-battery-grid-scale-storage/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=c36e418f45-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_03_17_09_14&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-c36e418f45-90625829
Another weekend and
sadly another war weekend because the politicians and diplomats completely
failed. Only President Macron of France will prosper in the history of this
dismal failure. Have a great weekend everyone.
Since for the moment we are headed for the
quadrillions and collapse the following table is provided as a service to those
unable to master the scientific notation that will rapidly be needed in
handling the fiat currency. In the U.S number system works as follows :
In dollars
Million - 1,000,000
Billion - 1,000,000,000
Trillion - 1,000,000,000,000
Quadrillion - 1,000,000,000,000,000
Quintillion - 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
Sextillion - 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 for comparison,
in seconds
Million - 11.5 days
Billion - 31.7 years
Trillion - 31,700 years
Quadrillion - 31,700,000 years
Quintillion - 31,700,000,000 years
Sextillion - 31,700,000,000,000 years
In fiat dollars, we are already operating
in the 30,000s of years. Stay long physical gold.
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