Baltic Dry Index. 2544 -23 Brent Crude 117.54
Spot Gold 1943
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 28/03/22 World 482,158,223
Deaths 6,148,372
Remarks by Governor Ben S.
Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club,
Washington, D.C. November 21, 2002
---But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm
In the Asian stock casinos, a nervous rebound of sorts. A little relief from a slightly easier crude oil market too.
The big news this week will be if Russia actually tries to make “unfriendly countries” pay for natural gas supplies in Roubles.
The big news next week will likely be if Russia defaults on a debt payment or switches the payment into Roubles.
Chinese tech stocks mostly rise as Meituan jumps more than 14% in mixed Asia trading
Published Sun, Mar 27 2022 7:42 PM EDT Updated 4 Min Ago
SINGAPORE — Shares in Chinese tech firms mostly rose in mixed Asia-Pacific trading on Monday, with oil prices falling more than 2%.
By Monday morning in Hong Kong, shares of Meituan soared 14.37% while Tencent climbed 3.82%.
Meituan on Friday posted better-than-expected revenue for the last three months of 2021. The company’s revenue for the fourth quarter came in at 49.52 billion yuan ($7.78 billion), above mean analyst expectations for a 49.2 billion yuan print, according to data from Refinitiv Eikon.
The Hang Seng Tech index recovered from earlier losses as it gained 3.05%. Some Chinese tech stocks, however, slipped: Xiaomi edged 0.28% lower while JD.com dropped 2.01%.
“Even if you look now, where we see very significant and sharp falls so that valuations now are at much more reasonable levels, I think it’s still quite difficult for investors … to really build the courage to go back in at these levels,” Mark Konyn, group chief investment officer at AIA, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
The broader Hang Seng index in Hong Kong advanced 1.3%.
Mixed Asia-Pacific markets
The broader Asia-Pacific markets struggled for direction in Monday trade.
Mainland China’s Shanghai composite slipped 0.13% while the Shenzhen component shed 1.066%.
Data released over the weekend showed Chinese industrial profits grew in the first two months of the year. Profits at China’s industrial firms rose 5.0% for the January to February period as compared with a year earlier, according to data released Sunday.
Investors have been watching for clues on policy easing from Chinese authorities amid concerns over the outlook for the economic powerhouse as it grapples with issues such as its worst Covid outbreak since the initial height of the pandemic in early 2020.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.47% while the Topix index ticked 0.13% lower. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.13%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.22%. Singapore’s Straits Times index also climbed 0.35%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific outside Japan traded below the flatline.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/28/asia-markets-data-shows-chinese-industrial-profits-growth-.html
Russia will likely default with April 4 payment due of $2.2B: experts
By Lydia Moynihan March 24, 2022
Investors breathed a sigh of relief last week after the Russian government made a $117 million interest payment on its foreign debt. But a much bigger payment comes due April 4 — to the tune of $2.2 billion — and creditors are far less optimistic Russia will pony up this time.
“The last payment was a small investment in credibility, but when Russia has to start writing billion dollar checks it’s a different calculation,” Jay Newman, former Elliott Management portfolio manager and author of “Undermoney,” told The Post. “I don’t think it’s realistic that Russia comes up with the $2.2 billion.
The bond payment last week panicked investors because it was unclear whether Russia’s central bank would be able to able to use its frozen reserve of US dollars to make the payment — and whether US banks would work with the country to transfer the money. There was also a dispute about whether Russia could pay the debt in its own currency. The Russian Finance Ministry insisted the country could pay in rubles but people with knowledge of the contract say it’s required to be paid in dollars.
For some smaller installment payments Russia is allowed to pay in rubles. But for the previous payments of $117 million and the upcoming payment of $2.2 billion, the terms mandate Russia must pay in US dollars.
Russia came through last time. But debt experts take a grim view of what comes next. These people tell The Post they don’t think Russia’s ability and willingness to service its previous debt obligation means anything when it comes to the future — especially because Russia faces nearly $4.8 billion in debt payments this year.
And April 4 will be the first big test: “Two billion is real money,” Newman warns.
The Treasury Department clarified Russia can use frozen funds to make debt payments until May 25. After that, the country likely needs to scrape up the money from other sources — borrowing cash or selling oil to countries like China or India.
----And it’s not just an economic issue. Even if Russia is able to make another payment, some experts worry Russia may simply refuse.
Newman argues the harsh sanctions imposed by the US may backfire — and that removing Russia’s ability to access markets and global trade eliminates the country’s motivation to keep paying debt.
“If Russia is cut off form the rest of the world, you have to doubt they’ll keep paying,” Newman said. “It’s unusual for a country under increasing and persistent economic sanctions to keep up payments — these sanctions have unintended consequences.”
More
In European war news, the big President Biden walk back. US troops are not going into Ukraine. If Russia uses chemical weapons NATO will not be responding “in kind.” President Putin can remain in power if he and Russian voters want him to.
A sanctioned Russian oligarch thinks we are all in for a long war.
The west stealing Russia’s gold and FX holdings is causing a wider rethink about where to hold reserves and in what form.
Russian aluminium billionaire Deripaska warns of long war in Ukraine
Sun, March 27, 2022, 4:17 PM
LONDON (Reuters) -Russian aluminium tycoon Oleg Deripaska said on Sunday that U.S. President Joe Biden's speech in Warsaw indicated that some sort of "hellish ideological mobilisation" was underway that may usher in a long conflict in Ukraine.
Deripaska, the founder of Russian aluminium giant Rusal who has previously called for peace, said his personal opinion was that the conflict in Ukraine was "madness" which would bring shame on generations to come.
Deripaska, who has been sanctioned by the United States and Britain, did not assign explicit blame for the conflict but said both the United States and Russia had sharpened their rhetoric.
Deripaska said he had hoped that the conflict could have ended weeks ago but that Biden's speech - in which the U.S. president spoke about a much broader conflict between democracy and autocracy - indicated it could last much longer.
"Now some sort of hellish ideological mobilisation is underway from all sides," Deripaska said on Telegram. "That's it: these people are preparing to fight for a few years more."
"It appears all sides are recklessly gearing for a long-term war that will have tragic consequences for the entire world."
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-deripaska-says-biden-remarks-151739525.html
Ukraine-Russia crisis is driving countries to explore new ways of pricing oil, Qatar says
Published Sat, Mar 26 2022 7:09 AM EDT Updated Sat, Mar 26 2022 9:30 AM EDT
Qatar’s foreign minister has said the conflict in Ukraine, and its geopolitical ramifications, is pushing some countries to explore new ways of pricing oil — not in the dollar.
The comments, made Saturday by Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, come after a Wall Street Journal report that Saudi Arabia is in accelerated talks with China to accept yuan instead of dollars for oil that Beijing buys.
Speaking to Hadley Gamble at the Doha Forum, Al-Thani said he didn’t expect such a system to be introduced in the near term, but stressed that the economic consequences of the Ukraine war were hitting some countries hard.
“Honestly speaking, look at what happens and the dynamics around us right now. I’m sure there are a lot of other countries who are unhappy with what’s happened and the consequences of the Ukrainian-Russian crisis, especially the economic consequences,” he said.
“And they are going to look and explore a parallel system [of pricing oil] … going to hedge, at least, for them economically. So as we are living through a transition, this transition will not be only a political transition but it is an economic transition as well.”
Last week, Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, told CNBC the U.S.′ stinging economic penalties could push countries away from the dollar — the currency oil is typically priced in.
The sanctions include effectively freezing Russia’s central bank reserves and disconnecting Russia from the interbank messaging system, SWIFT.
“On the one hand, you are sanctioning right and left. On the other hand, you want countries to buy your Treasurys and finance your debt. That’s not a sustainable scenario,” Luft said.
----It comes as European countries seek to diversify their energy supply away from Russia – particularly gas. The EU imported 45% of its gas from Russia last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
On Friday, the U.S. said it was looking to work with partners — which include Qatar — to provide at least 15 billion cubic meters more of liquified natural gas to Europe this year, with that amount set to increase going forward.
However Al-Thani said that no one energy supplier can substitute another.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Mortgage rate soars closer to 5% in its second huge jump this week
Published Fri, Mar 25 2022 3:01 PM EDT
The rate for the most common kind of mortgage just surged again.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage shot significantly higher Friday, rising 24 basis points to 4.95%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It is now 164 basis points higher than it was one year ago.
“That’s the second time this week, and it puts this week on par with the worst week from the 2013 taper tantrum — a record we didn’t see being legitimately challenged a few days ago,” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.
On Tuesday, the rate had hit 4.72%, a 26-basis-point jump from March 18. The quicker-than-expected rise in rates has weighed on demand for mortgages and refinancing loans.
The rate surged as the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury also took off. Mortgage rates follow that yield loosely, but not entirely. Mortgage rates are also influenced by demand for mortgage-backed bonds. The Federal Reserve is scaling back its holdings of these assets and is also hiking interest rates.
It couldn’t come at a worse time, as the all-important spring housing market gets underway. Potential buyers are already facing extraordinarily tight supply and sky-high prices. With both rates and prices considerably higher, the median mortgage payment is now more than 20% higher than it was a year ago.
Buyers are also facing inflation on everything else in their budgets, which exacerbates the affordability issues. Rents are also surging higher at a record rate, causing more potential buyers to be unable to put aside money for a down payment. In addition, as rates rise, some buyers will no longer qualify for a mortgage. Lenders have been much more strict about how much debt a borrower may take on in relation to income.
More
U.S. home sales post another decline
Fri, March 25, 2022, 4:40 PM
STORY: Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. dropped for a fourth straight month in February, weighed down by a persistent shortage of properties. And with increasing mortgage rates and high house prices, sales could remain sluggish.
The National Association of Realtors said on Friday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 4.1% last month to 104.9. Pending home sales declined in the South, Midwest and West, but rose in the Northeast.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts rebounding 1.0%. Pending home sales decreased 5.4% in February on a year-on-year basis.
While sales of previously owned homes tumbled in February, they remained above their level from before the health crisis.
The inventory of used houses is at record lows. Shortages and expensive building materials have made it harder for builders to ramp up construction, leading to double-digit growth in house prices.
Mortgage rates surged in February and have continued to push higher after the Federal Reserve last week raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, the first hike in more than three years. They are likely to continue accelerating as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday said the U.S. central bank must move "expeditiously" to raise rates and possibly "more aggressively" to combat inflation.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-home-sales-post-another-164033972.html
GM will idle Indiana truck plant for two weeks over chips shortage
March 25, 2022 2:27 PM GMT
WASHINGTON, March 25 (Reuters) - General Motors Co (GM.N) said Friday it will idle for two weeks in April an assembly plant in Indiana that builds pickup trucks, over ongoing semiconductor chip shortages.
The Detroit automaker said it will halt production at its Fort Wayne assembly plant, which builds the Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and GMC Sierra 1500, for two weeks starting April 4.
"There is still uncertainty and unpredictability in the semiconductor supply base, and we are actively working with our suppliers to mitigate potential issues moving forward," GM said Friday.
The automaker said this is its first semiconductor-related full-size truck production downtime since August.
GM noted that overall it has "seen better consistency in semiconductor supply through the first quarter compared to last year as a whole. This has translated into improvement in our production and deliveries during the first three months of the year."
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
China's Shanghai split in two for COVID lockdown as asymptomatic cases surge
March 28, 2022 3:45 AM
SHANGHAI, March 28 (Reuters) - China's financial hub of Shanghai launched a planned two-stage lockdown of the city of 26 million people on Monday, closing bridges and tunnels, and restricting highway traffic in a scramble to contain surging local COVID-19 cases.
The snap lockdown, announced by Shanghai's city government on Sunday, will split the city in two roughly along the Huangpu River for nine days to allow for "staggered" testing. It is the biggest COVID-related disruption to hit the city so far.
The announcement also marks a turnaround for the local government, which last week expressly denied Shanghai would be locked down as it pursued a more piecemeal "slicing and gridding" approach to try to prevent infections from spreading. read more
Wu Fan, a member of Shanghai's expert COVID team, told a briefing on Monday recent mass testing had found "large scale" infections throughout the city, triggering a stronger response.
Containing the large scale outbreak in our city is very important because once infected people are put under control, we have blocked transmission," she said, adding that testing would be carried out until all hidden risks are eliminated.
A record 3,450 asymptomatic COVID cases were reported in Shanghai on Sunday, accounting for nearly 70% of the nationwide total, along with 50 symptomatic cases, the city government said on Monday.
Shanghai's Public Security Bureau said it was closing cross-river bridges and tunnels, and highway tollbooths concentrated in the city's eastern districts through April 1. Areas to the west of the Huangpu River will have similar restrictions imposed April 1-5.
In a statement posted to its official Weibo account, the bureau said traffic controls would be implemented on highways into and out of the city, requiring people leaving Shanghai to show proof of negative results from nucleic acid tests taken within 48 hours.
The city government said on Sunday it would suspend public transport, including ride-hailing services, in locked down areas. It also ordered the suspension of work at firms and factories, with the exception of those offering public services or supplying food.
U.S. automaker Tesla (TSLA.O) is suspending production at its factory in the city for four days, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Monday. read more
The recent surge of COVID cases in China has added to pressure on the world's second-largest economy, likely further chilling consumer spending.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Light derails electrons through graphene
Date: March 24, 2022
Source: ICFO-The Institute of Photonic Sciences
Summary: Researchers have experimentally caused electrons to bend in bilayer graphene with the use of light. The way electrons flow in materials determine its electronic properties. For example, when a voltage is sustained across a conducting material, electrons start flowing, generating an electrical current. These electrons are often thought to flow in straight paths, moving along the electric field, much like a ball rolling down a hill. Yet these are not the only trajectories electrons can take: when a magnetic field is applied, the electrons no longer travel in straight paths along the electric field, but in fact, they bend. The bent electronic flows lead to transverse signals called 'Hall' responses.
Now, is it possible to bend electrons without applying a magnetic field? In a study recently published in Science, an international team of researchers report that circular polarized light can induce bent electronic flows in bilayer graphene. The study has been carried out by a team including ICFO scientists Jianbo Yin (currently researcher from the Beijing Graphene Institute, China), David Barcons, Iacopo Torre, led by ICREA Prof. at ICFO Frank Koppens, in collaboration with Cheng Tan and James Hone from Columbia University, Kenji Watanabe and Takashi Taniguchi from NIMS Japan and Prof. Justin Song from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore.
----As Justin Song explains, "Electrons are not just particles, but can have a quantum wave-like nature." In quantum materials, such as bilayer graphene, the wave pattern of electrons can exhibit a complex winding often referred to as quantum geometry. "Frank and I talked about the possibility of harnessing quantum geometry in bilayer graphene to bend the flow of electrons with light instead of using magnetic fields."
With this in mind, Jianbo Yin, a researcher in Frank Koppens' team, decided to take on the challenge of experimentally realizing this unusual phenomenon. "Our device was very complicated to build. It took building many devices and flying to Columbia University to work with Cheng Tan and James Hone to improve the device quality."
----The results of the study open a new realm of many detection and imaging applications, as Koppens finally concludes. "Such discovery could have major implications in applications for infrared and terahertz sensing since bilayer graphene can be transformed from semimetal to semiconductor with a very small bandgap, so it can detect photons of very small energies. It may be also useful, for example, for imaging in space, medical imaging, e.g. for tissue skin cancer, or even for security applications such as the quality inspection of materials."
The possibilities are manifold and the next steps of research focused on new 2D materials, such as the moiré material twisted bilayer graphene, may find new ways of controlling electron flows and unconventional opto-electronic properties.
I do not think it is an exaggeration to say history is largely a history of inflation, usually inflations engineered by governments for the gain of governments.
Friedrich August von Hayek.
No comments:
Post a Comment