Baltic Dry Index. 2235 +87 Brent Crude 126.22
Spot Gold 1992 Wheat 13.10 +16.00
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 08/03/22 World 448,175,126
Deaths 6,027,357
I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can, only as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity.
Dwight D. Eisenhowe
In the unnecessary new European war, pitting David versus an inept Goliath, the human tragedy just continues to increase daily.
With each passing day it’s harder and harder to see any positive outcome. Obviously not for poor Ukraine, but not for aggressor Russia or President Putin either.
But unhappily, not for the rest of the world either.
With soaring commodities prices, with no end in sight, much of the poorest part of the world faces renewed poverty.
Most if not all of the G-20 face The Giant Stagflation.
If President Biden presses ahead and unilaterally bans Russian oil and gas, much of continental Europe faces fuel bankruptcy.
Much like 1914, we are living through the death of the old order 1945-2020 and heading into a new global age of great uncertainty, social disruption, and in all probability, a new greatly disturbed world order.
And all because, Blinken, Biden, Johnson, NATO, et al, overplayed their hand in trying to get the Ukraine into NATO to surround and ultimately collapse Russia-China.
Ironically, they may have succeeded, though not in the way intended.
Collapsing Russia-China this way came at the destruction of the deceived Ukrainians, who thought they had real NATO backing.
Came at the price of a looming massive debt default, food and energy poverty for much of the world; weaponised fiat currency, and central bank reserves.
Risks the next Lehman collapse; faith in the dollar reserve standard; and worst of all, possibly starting World War Three!
Way to go Blinken, Biden, Johnson, NATO, Putin, Lavrov.
Only President Macron of France saw the danger, tried immensely to avert the catastrophe, but couldn’t get Washington to see their folly.
They bet Putin wouldn’t start a new European war! Putin bet the Ukraine would fold easily, while NATO and the rest would do very little!
A global calamity looms.
History will not judge this period, nor anyone but President Macron well.
Mainland China markets lead losses as Asia stocks slide amid investor caution over Russia-Ukraine war
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific declined in Tuesday trade, with mainland Chinese markets leading losses regionally as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to keep investors on edge.
Mainland China’s Shanghai composite declined 2% while the Shenzhen component fell 2.62%. The CSI 300 index, which tracks the largest mainland-listed stocks, dropped 1.69%.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which led losses among the region’s major markets on Monday, shed earlier gains and fell into negative territory as it slipped 0.35%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.64% while the Topix index shed 0.59%. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.48%.
Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.24%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.88% lower.
Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 dropped 2.95% to 4,201.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 797.42 points, or 2.37%, to 32,817.38. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged, falling 3.62% to 12,830.96.
The losses on Wall Street came as investors continue to monitor the potential economic hit of disruptions in the global energy supply as the Russia-Ukraine war continues.
Oil moves
Investors continued to monitor moves in the oil markets on Tuesday, with prices turning positive in the morning of Asia trading hours. International benchmark Brent crude futures gained 2.46% to $126.24 per barrel. U.S. crude futures climbed 1.64% to $121.34 per barrel.
Amid the lingering uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices recently spiked momentarily to their highest levels since July 2008.
Regional airline stocks, which are sensitive to oil prices, continued to decline in Tuesday trade.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/asia-markets-russia-ukraine-war-currencies-oil.html
Oil Traders Bet Prices Will Pass $200 a Barrel This Month
Mon, March 7, 2022, 10:15 AM
(Bloomberg) -- Traders piled into options that oil could surge even further after rising to the highest since 2008, with some even placing low-cost bets that futures surpass $200 before the end of March.
Prices to buy call options at higher prices surged Monday as the market assessed the possibility of a supply cut-off from Russia, one of the world’s biggest exporters. More than 1,200 contracts for the option to buy May Brent futures at $200 a barrel traded on Monday, according to ICE Futures Europe data. The options expire March 28, three days before the contract settles. The price to buy them jumped 152% to $2.39 a barrel.
A $150-a-barrel call option for the June Brent contract doubled from Friday, according to ICE, while the cost of $180 call options jumped 110%. The front-month May contract for Brent surged dramatically early on Monday as traders panicked over talks of a Russian crude ban amid Libyan supply disruptions and delays to expected progress in Iranian nuclear talks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co said last week that Brent crude could end the year at $185 a barrel should Russian supplies continue to be disrupted, while Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. saw around 5 million barrels a day of pipeline and seaborne oil supplies being impacted by new sanctions.
Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. The OPEC+ member exported 7.8 million barrels a day of crude, condensate and oil products in December last year, according to the International Energy Agency, supplying key fuels such as diesel, fuel oil, vacuum gasoil and a petrochemical feedstock known as naphtha to buyers across Europe, the U.S. and Asia.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-traders-betting-prices-may-051731959.html
U.S. may act alone to ban Russian oil imports, sources say
Mon, March 7, 2022, 3:56 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States is willing to move ahead with a ban on Russian oil imports without the participation of allies in Europe, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters, in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
President Joe Biden held a video conference call with the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom on Monday as his administration continues to seek their support for a ban on Russian oil imports.
The White House is also negotiating with U.S. congressional leaders who are working on fast-tracking legislation that would ban Russian imports, a move that is forcing the administration to work on an expedited timeline, a source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
A senior U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that no final decision has been made but "it is likely just the U.S if it happens."
Germany, the biggest buyer of Russian crude oil, has rejected plans to ban energy imports. Germany is accelerating its plans to expand its use of alternative energy sources but cannot halt imports of Russian energy overnight, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday.
Oil prices have soared to their highest levels since 2008 due to delays in the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets and as the United States and European allies consider banning Russian imports.
Europe relies on Russia for crude oil and natural gas but has become more open to the idea of banning Russian products. The United States relies far less on Russian crude and products, but a ban would help drive prices up and pinch U.S. consumers already seeing increasing prices at the gas pump.
"We import such a smaller percentage of oil from Russia than the Europeans do ... it is very different circumstance," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.
More
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-prepared-move-alone-banning-155638109.html
Stephen Roach says Russian default would hit emerging markets — and China
Published Sun, Mar 6 202211:48 PM EST Updated 53 Min Ago
conomist Stephen Roach warned effects from any default on Russia’s sovereign debt as a result of the Ukraine crisis would spill over to emerging markets, including China.
“If Russia does default on its debt ... there will be broad spillover effects to sovereign debt in emerging markets around the world and China will not be unscathed from that,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “But I’m talking really of broader risks — guilt by association.”
Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, added that “China cannot afford to stay in close alignment with Russia as it mounts this truly God-awful campaign against innocent Ukraine right now.”
---- Shortly after Moscow launched its assault on Ukraine, the U.S. announced sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt as well as its banks and central bank. Since then, major ratings agencies Fitch, Moody’s and S&P have slashed the country’s sovereign rating to “junk” status, saying Western sanctions could undermine Russia’s ability to service its debt.
China has said it won’t participate in those sanctions against Russia.
Meanwhile, major global index providers MSCI and FTSE Russell announced last week that Russian stocks will be pulled from all their indexes. MSCI also announced that it will be reclassifying its MSCI Russia indexes to “standalone markets” rather than emerging markets.
London-listed Russian stocks collapsed last week, before the London stock exchange suspended trading in 27 Russian securities. Still, nearly all their value was already wiped out by the time the suspension was announced Thursday.
---- Roach told CNBC that higher oil prices are “definitely stagflationary.”
Stagflation is when the economy is simultaneously experiencing stagnant activity and accelerating inflation. The phenomenon was first recognized in the 1970s when an oil shock prompted an extended period of higher prices but sharply falling GDP growth.
More
Russian offensive slows, says Ukraine, as residents flee bombed-out cities
March 8, 2022 6:17 AM GMT
LVIV/IRPIN, Ukraine, March 8 (Reuters) - Russia's offensive in Ukraine continued but at a significantly slower pace on Tuesday and a second senior Russian commander had been killed, Ukrainian military and intelligence said, as frightened residents fled bombed-out cities.
In the city of Irpin, on the northwest edge of Kyiv, residents ran with their young children in strollers, or cradling babies in arms, while others carried pet carriers and plastic bags and suitcases.
"It's like a disaster, the city is almost ruined, and the district where I'm living, it's like there are no houses which were not bombed," said one young mother, holding a baby beneath a blanket, while her daughter stood by her side.
"Yesterday was the hardest bombing, and the lights and sound is so scary, and the whole building is shaking."
----Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of Russia's 41st army, was killed on Monday, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine's defence ministry said in a statement.
Ukraine's general staff of the armed forces said the Russian offensive continues although at a significantly slower pace.
Russia's defence ministry could not be immediately reached for comment and Reuters could not verify the reports.
----Russia's invasion, the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two, has created 1.7 million refugees, a raft of sanctions on Moscow, and fears of wider conflict as the West pours military aid into Ukraine. read more
Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbour's military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists.
Kyiv has rejected Moscow's offer of possible humanitarian corridors to Russia and Belarus.
However, Moscow has since proposed giving the residents of the cities of Sumy and Mariupol the choice of moving elsewhere in Ukraine on Tuesday, setting a deadline in the early hours for Kyiv to agree, Russian news agencies reported. read more
After the third attempt to ease the bloodshed at talks in Belarus, negotiators warned not to expect the next round to bring a final result. The Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers are expected to meet in Turkey on Thursday.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters Moscow would halt operations if Ukraine ceased fighting, amended its constitution to declare neutrality, and recognised Russia's annexation of Crimea and the independence of regions held by Russian-backed separatists.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Russian war in world’s ‘breadbasket’ threatens food supply
BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — The Russian tanks and missiles besieging Ukraine also are threatening the food supply and livelihoods of people in Europe, Africa and Asia who rely on the vast, fertile farmlands of the Black Sea region — known as the “breadbasket of the world.”
Ukrainian farmers have been forced to neglect their fields as millions flee, fight or try to stay alive. Ports are shut down that send wheat and other food staples worldwide to be made into bread, noodles and animal feed. And there are worries Russia, another agricultural powerhouse, could have its grain exports upended by Western sanctions.
While there have not yet been global disruptions to wheat supplies, prices have surged 55% since a week before the invasion amid concerns about what could happen next. If the war is prolonged, countries that rely on affordable wheat exports from Ukraine could face shortages starting in July, International Grains Council director Arnaud Petit told The Associated Press.
That could create food insecurity and throw more people into poverty in places like Egypt and Lebanon, where diets are dominated by government-subsidized bread. In Europe, officials are preparing for potential shortages of products from Ukraine and increased prices for livestock feed that could mean more expensive meat and dairy if farmers are forced to pass along costs to customers.
Russia and Ukraine combine for nearly a third of the world’s wheat and barley exports. Ukraine also is a major supplier of corn and the global leader in sunflower oil, used in food processing. The war could reduce food supplies just when prices are at their highest levels since 2011.
----Anna Nagurney, a professor of supply chains, logistics and economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said, “Wheat, corn, oils, barley, flour are extremely important to food security ... especially in the poorer parts of the globe.”
With Ukrainian men being called on to fight, she said, “Who’s going to be doing the harvesting? Who’d be doing the transportation?”
----Ukraine and Russia also combine for 75% of global sunflower oil exports, accounting for 10% of all cooking oils, IHS Markit said.
Raad Hebsi, a wholesale retailer in Baghdad, said he and other Iraqis are bracing to pay more for their cooking oil.
“Once the items stored are sold, we will see an increase in prices of these items,” he said. “We will likely purchase alternatives from Turkey, and Turkey will no doubt take advantage of the situation in Ukraine and raise its prices.”
Farmers in the United States, the world’s leading corn exporter and a major wheat supplier, are watching to see if U.S. wheat exports spike. In the European Union, farmers are concerned about rising costs for livestock feed.
Ukraine supplies the EU with just under 60% of its corn and nearly half of a key component in the grains needed to feed livestock. Russia, which provides the EU with 40% of its natural gas needs, is similarly a major supplier of fertilizer, wheat and other staples.
Spain is feeling the pinch both in sunflower oil, which supermarkets are rationing, and grains for the all-important breeding industry. Those imported grains go to feed some 55 million pigs.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Blood type may affect risk for COVID-19
March 7, 2022 / 3:00 AM
Your blood type may strongly influence your risk of severe COVID-19, new research suggests.
After screening more than 3,000 blood proteins, scientists linked six with an increased risk of severe COVID-19 and found eight that could help protect against severe disease.
One of the proteins (ABO) linked to severe illness determines blood type, suggesting that blood types (groups) play a major role in whether people develop severe forms of COVID-19, according to the authors of the study published Thursday in the journal PLOS Genetics.
"The enzyme helps determine the blood group of an individual and our study has linked it with both risk of hospitalization and the need of respiratory support or death," said study co-author Christopher Hübel. He is a research associate at the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN) at King's College London, in the United Kingdom.
"Our study does not link precise blood group with risk of severe COVID-19, but since previous research has found that [the] proportion of people who are group A is higher in COVID-19-positive individuals, this suggests that blood group A is a more likely candidate for follow-up studies," Hübel noted in a college news release.
The researchers also identified a causal link between three adhesion molecules and a lower risk of hospitalization and need for respiratory support. The three adhesion molecules are involved in the interaction between immune cells and blood vessels, so this new finding supports previous research suggesting that late-stage COVID-19 is also a disease involving the linings of blood vessels.
This is the first study to assess such a large number of blood proteins for their connection to COVID-19, and the findings could lead to new ways to treat and prevent severe illness, the study authors suggested.
Co-author Alish Palmos, a postdoctoral research associate at IoPPN, said the team used a purely genetic approach to establish causal links to development of severe COVID-19.
"Honing in on this group of proteins is a vital first step in discovering potentially valuable targets for development of new treatments," Palmos said.
And co-author Gerome Breen, a professor of psychiatric genetics at IoPPN, added that the study provides a short list for the next stage of research.
"Out of thousands of blood proteins we have whittled it down to about 14 that have some form of causal connection to the risk of severe COVID-19 and present a potentially important avenue for further research to better understand the mechanisms behind COVID-19, with an ultimate aim of developing new treatments but potentially also preventative therapies," Breen said.
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2022/03/07/blood-type-COVID-19/8071646415483/
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Why ICANN Won’t Revoke Russian Internet Domains
The organization says cutting the country off would have “devastating” effects on the global internet system.
Mar 5, 2022 1:15 PM
Ukraine's request to cut Russia off from core parts of the internet has been rejected by the nonprofit group that oversees the Internet's Domain Name System (DNS). CEO Göran Marby of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) said the group must "maintain neutrality and act in support of the global internet."
"Our mission does not extend to taking punitive actions, issuing sanctions, or restricting access against segments of the internet—regardless of the provocations," Marby wrote in his response to Ukraine Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. "ICANN applies its policies consistently and in alignment with documented processes. To make unilateral changes would erode trust in the multi-stakeholder model and the policies designed to sustain global internet interoperability."
Ukraine on Monday asked ICANN to revoke Russian top-level domains such as .ru, .рф, and .su; to "contribute to the revoking for SSL certificates" of those domains; and to shut down DNS root servers in Russia. Fedorov argued that the requested "measures will help users seek for reliable information in alternative domain zones, preventing propaganda and disinformation."
ICANN Was “Built to Ensure the Internet Works”
Experts warned that granting Ukraine's request would harm Russian civilians, have little impact on Russia's government and military, and fail to achieve the goal of countering propaganda. Marby agreed with that assessment, telling Fedorov in his response:
As you have said in your letter, your desire is to help users seek reliable information in alternative domain zones and prevent propaganda and disinformation. It is only through broad and unimpeded access to the internet that citizens can receive reliable information and a diversity of viewpoints. Regardless of the source, ICANN does not control internet access or content.
While "ICANN and its global community are aware of and concerned about the terrible toll being exacted against your country," ICANN itself has "no sanction-levying authority," Marby wrote. "Essentially, ICANN has been built to ensure that the internet works, not for its coordination role to be used to stop it from working."
“Devastating” Effect on Global System
Regarding the request to revoke top-level domains, Marby wrote that "globally agreed policies do not provide for ICANN to take unilateral action to disconnect these domains as you request. You can understand why such a system cannot operate based on requests from one territory or country concerning internal operations within another territory or country. Such a change in the process would have devastating and permanent effects on the trust and utility of this global system."
Marby's response to the request to shut down DNS root servers in Russia was brief, saying that the "root server system is composed of many geographically distributed nodes maintained by independent operators." Concerning Ukraine's other request, Marby wrote that ICANN does "not have the ability to revoke the specific SSL certificates for the domains you mentioned. These certificates are produced by third-party operators, and ICANN is not involved in their issuance."
Marby's denial of Ukraine's request cited the decentralized nature of the internet. "No one actor has the ability to control it or shut it down. ICANN's primary role, through the functions of the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority, is to ensure the consistent and unique assignment of internet identifiers in line with global policies," Marby wrote.
"These policies were developed by a multi-stakeholder community that includes technical experts, businesses, academics, civil society, governments, and other stakeholders who worked collaboratively to solve policy and technical challenges through consensus," Marby continued. "It is a model that has allowed the internet to flourish over decades, and this broad and inclusive approach to decision-making fosters the global public interest and makes the Internet resilient against unilateral decision-making."
Though ICANN won't sever DNS links, that doesn't mean Russians have unfettered access to the internet. Russia is reportedly blocking Twitter, Facebook, various news sites, and major app stores, as we wrote on Friday. Separately, US-based internet backbone operator Cogent Communications is reportedly cutting off service in Russia in a move that could cause some outages and poor network performance.
“What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or in the holy name of liberty or democracy?”
Mahatma Gandhi.
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