Baltic Dry Index. 2484 -60 Brent Crude 110.65
Spot Gold 1922
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 29/03/22 World 483,805,012
Deaths 6,152,074
The Kremlin's quick shooting down of the German economy minister's comments and the G-7's stance on the ruble came Monday via a Russian lawmaker to state-run RIA Novosti: "Russian lawmaker Abramov says G7's refusal to pay in Russian roubles for gas will definitely lead to a halt in supplies."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-threatens-g7-nations-ministers-190000564.html
If I didn’t know better I’d think bond and commodities think a stagflation recession is just about to hit.
Happily, US stock casinos tell a different story, in as much as the vastly “underpriced” EV manufacturer Tesla is going to lead the stock casinos to unprecedented new highs.
Only one of the sectors will be proved right. What’s not to like?
I mean, we have China shutting down one of the world’s largest cities impacting supply chains.
Decades of falling interest rates and ZIRP and NIRP are about to get replaced with a decade or more of rising interest rates.
On March 31, Russia is about to start charging Europe and Japan for its natural gas exports in Roubles neither Europe nor Japan have.
The new European war no one outside of Washington and London wanted continues on with no end in sight, but is creating an all too real global food crisis.
Sanctions on Russia threaten access to exports of aluminium, nickel, uranium, crude oil and natural gas, and cheap wheat.
A Russian debt default is very likely to happen next Monday.
Most gold Exchange Traded Funds are stuffed to the rafters with Russian gold bars that are no longer good delivery, probably can’t be sold or swapped without violating sanctions, and can’t be delivered to any ETF long wanting to take delivery in gold.
“Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, what did you think of the play?”
Stocks look past rate risks in late rally, yen wilts
March 29, 2022 2:13 AM
NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) - World stock markets cast aside fears of rising interest rates on Monday with the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq index rallying 1.3%, even as parts of the Treasury yield curve signaled recession risks while oil prices tumbled on fears of weaker Chinese demand.
After a choppy session where stocks oscillated between gains and losses, U.S. shares finally broke higher, with electric car marker Tesla (TSLA.O) surging almost 8% on news that it will seek investor approval for a stock split. read more
But the buoyancy in stocks was foreshadowed by several signs and analyst warnings that it may not last, as global interest rates will likely climb higher this year and could drag on economic growth.
In the Treasuries market, for example, the yield curve for two- and 10-year Treasuries presaged growing recession risks on Monday, even though the curve for three-month bills and 10-year Treasuries still pointed to robust economic expansion.
Expectations of rising global interest rates prolonged a sell-off in European government debt, enabling Dutch and Belgian two-year bond yields to turn positive for the first time since 2014.
The tide of rising global yields led Japan's central bank to declare on Monday a steadfast attempt to defend its 0.25% yield cap, vowing to buy an unlimited amount of government bonds for the first four days of the week.
The announcement sent the yen reeling to a six-year low at one point. Unlike other major economies that are battling surging price pressures, inflation in Japan remains well below its 2% target. read more
By early evening, MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.39%.
The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) jumped 1.31%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.27% and the S&P 500 (.SPX) climbed 0.71%.
A lockdown in China's financial hub of Shanghai to contain surging COVID-19 cases, on the other hand, weighed on Chinese shares (.CSI300) and dragged on oil prices, as investors anticipated weaker demand from the world's No 2 economy. read more
U.S. crude fell a whopping 9.14% to $103.49 per barrel and Brent skidded 9.1% to $109.70.
More
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2022-03-28/
A Recession Warning Sign? Part of U.S. Yield Curve Inverts for First Time Since 2006
Mon, March 28, 2022, 5:06 AM
(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries slumped anew to send a widely-watched part of the U.S. yield curve to its first inversion in 16 years. The curve is flattening as investors bet the Federal Reserve will tighten policy rapidly enough to risk a sustained slowdown in growth.
U.S. five-year yields climbed nine basis points to 2.63%, rising above those on 30-year bonds. Shorter maturities have been selling off faster than their longer-dated peers this year as investors ratchet up expectations the Fed will hike rates to combat inflation. The spread between five- and 10-year Treasuries inverted earlier this month.
“Fed officials haven’t pushed back on aggressive market pricing yet, putting higher yields and flatter curves as the momentum play for now,” said Prashant Newnaha, an Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate this month for the first time since 2018, and has pledged to keep hiking in a bid to slow inflation that was running at the fastest pace in four decades. Traders are betting the central bank will boost its benchmark by 200 basis points by year-end. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week the central bank was prepared to raise rates by 50 basis points in May if such a step was necessary to control price pressures.
Powell also pushed back against concern that an inverted yield curve would signal the economy is headed for a recessions, saying it made more sense to focus on the shorter end, where curves remain steep.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-warning-sign-part-u-040605271.html
Finally, does supply chain chaos have a happy ending? Any ending this decade? Any ending?
The Supply Chain Crisis Is About to Get a Lot Worse
A seemingly endless supply chain crunch has fueled interest in tech that promises to track problems or predict where new ones might occur.
Mar 28, 2022 7:00 AM
The supply chain is in chaos—and it’s getting worse. Air freight warehouses at Shanghai Pudong Airport are log-jammed as a result of strict Covid testing protocols imposed on China’s biggest city following a local outbreak. At the city’s port, Shanghai-Ningbo, more than 120 container vessels are stuck on hold. In Shenzhen, a major manufacturing hub in the country’s south, trucking costs have shot up 300 percent due to a backlog of orders and a shortage of drivers following the introduction of similar Covid restrictions. Major ports the world over, which used to operate like clockwork, are now beset by delays, with container ships queuing for days in some of the worst congestion ever recorded. The list goes on.
More
Russia and West at odds over gas payments in roubles
March 29, 2022 1:30 AM
March 28 (Reuters) - Russia said on Monday it will not supply gas to Europe for free as it works out methods for accepting payments for its gas exports in roubles but G7 nations refused the demand.
At a meeting of European Union leaders on Friday, no common position emerged on Russia's demand last week that "unfriendly" countries must pay in roubles, not euros, for its gas in the wake of the United States and European allies teaming up on a series of sanctions aimed at Russia. read more
Concerns over security of supply were enhanced after the demand, with companies and EU nations scrambling to understand the ramifications.
The Russian central bank, the government and Gazprom (GAZP.MM), which accounts for 40% of European gas imports, should present their proposals for rouble gas payments to President Vladimir Putin by March 31.
"We are not going to supply gas for free, this is clear," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a conference call. "In our situation, this is hardly possible and appropriate to engage in charity (with European customers)."
In a interview aired later on Monday with the American public broadcaster PBS, when asked whether gas would be turned off for non-payers, Peskov replied: "No payment - no gas."
But he added that Russia is yet to take a final decision on how to respond should European countries refuse to pay in the Russian currency.
Meanwhile, energy ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations rejected the rouble payment demands, Germany economy and climate protection minister Robert Habeck said after talks with his counterparts. read more
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
A World That’s More Expensive Is Starting to Destroy Demand
David R Baker,
Allison Smith & Sheela Tobben 02:00 PM IST, 27 Mar 2022 12:02 PM IST, 28
Mar 2022
Prices
for some of the world’s most pivotal products – foods, fuels, plastics, metals
– are spiking beyond what many buyers can afford. That’s forcing consumers to
cut back and, if the trend grows, may tip economies already buffeted by
pandemic and war back into recession.
The phenomenon is
happening in ways large and small. Soaring natural gas prices in China force
ceramic factories burning the fuel to halve their operations. A Missouri
trucking company debates suspending operations because it can’t fully recoup
rising diesel costs from customers. European steel mills using electric arc
furnaces scale back production as power costs soar, making the metal even more
expensive.
Global food prices set a record last month, according to the United Nations, as
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted shipments from the countries that,
together, supply one-quarter of the world’s grain and much of its cooking oil.
More-expensive food may be frustrating to the middle class, but it’s
devastating to communities trying to claw their way out of poverty. For some,
“demand destruction” will be a bloodless way to say “hunger.”
In the developed world, the squeeze between higher energy and food costs could
force households to cut discretionary spending – evenings out, vacations, the
latest iPhone or PlayStation. China’s decision to put its top steelmaking hub
under Covid-19 lockdown could limit supply and push up prices for big-ticket
items like home appliances and cars. Electric vehicles from Tesla Inc.,
Volkswagen AG and General Motors Co. may be the future of transportation,
except the lithium in their batteries is almost 500% more expensive than a year
ago.
“Altogether, it signals what could turn into a recession,” said Kenneth Medlock
III, senior director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s
Baker Institute for Public Policy.
more
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/a-world-that-s-more-expensive-is-starting-to-destroy-demand
Price of a pint to soar by Christmas, beer brewer warns
Rocketing barley costs could push up prices by as much as 30pc, with clothing also set to get more expensive
The price of a pint of beer is set to get even more expensive by Christmas as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sends barley costs spiralling by almost a third, a leading brewer has warned.
Suffolk brewer and pub operator Adnams warned that a surge in the price of barley, which is key to the brewing process, in response to the war in Ukraine meant that it was on track to push prices up for customers later this year.
Ukraine typically accounts for just under a fifth of global exports of barley.
Adnams sources its barley from the UK, but global shortages are sending costs higher across supply chains. For now, many brewers have enough stocks of barley, but will be buying more later this year.
Fergus Fitzgerald of Adnams, said: “When it comes to that next supply, that’s when we will start to see price increases. The price of barley currently is around 30pc higher than it would have been this time last year.”
British makers of alcoholic drinks were already battling with a 7.9pc rise in costs in January on an annual basis, according to official figures.
Mr Fitzgerald said even if the situation in Ukraine was resolved, supply out of the country would “be difficult for some time”, meaning the price of barley is unlikely to drop.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
First use of mRNA COVID vaccine to treat persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection
Rich Haridy March 27, 2022
A new case report published in the Journal of Clinical Immunology has presented the first description of a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine being used to therapeutically treat a patient experiencing a persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection. The immunocompromised patient, who repeatedly tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 for well over six months, was seen to finally clear the virus from his system following two doses of an mRNA vaccine.
----In some rare cases, those with weakened immune systems can experience a form of chronic viral infection known as a persistent infection. In these instances a virus can remain acutely active for months with the patient consistently experiencing negative symptoms and shedding infectious viral particles.
A new study from researchers in the UK reports on the case of a 37-year-old man named Ian Lester who experienced a persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection, consistently delivering positive PCR tests for 218 days. Lester has a rare genetic disease called Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome, and initially he displayed very mild COVID-19 symptoms.
“Although most people are able to stop isolating after 10 days of contracting the virus, I was an exception to the rule,” said Lester. "Each test came back positive, time and time again. Months passed, which felt like a lifetime when you’re not able to go anywhere or see friends or family.”
Over time, Lester’s symptoms worsened as he returned positive PCR tests every fortnight. Blood tests five months into the infection showed no SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, indicating his immune system had not at all responded to the invading coronavirus. Stephen Jolles, clinical lead at Cardiff University, figured it was time to try a more experimental treatment.
----The team gave Lester two doses of Pfizer’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, separated by about four weeks. Within 14 days of the first dose PCR testing indicated a distinct decrease in the volume of viral material gathered during each nasopharyngeal swab. About six weeks after the second dose Lester tested negative to SARS-CoV-2 for the first time 218 days.
“It was a pretty astonishing moment,” said Mark Ponsford, another clinician working on the case. “To our knowledge, this is the first time mRNA vaccination has been used to clear persistent COVID-19 infection. Importantly, the vaccine was well tolerated by the patient and successfully induced a strong antibody and T-cell response. This was remarkable given Ian’s response to conventional vaccinations in the past has been extremely limited.”
The case study is a compelling example of how mRNA vaccines could be used for therapeutic purposes alongside more traditional prophylactic approaches. Therapeutic vaccines can help prompt the immune system to target a pre-existing disease and much research is currently focused on therapeutic vaccines to target a variety of cancers.
The new study was published in the Journal of Clinical Immunology.
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists calculate absolute quantum speed limit for electronics
Michael Irving March 27, 2022
It often feels like electronics will continue to get faster forever, but at some point the laws of physics will intervene to put a stop to that. Now scientists have calculated the ultimate speed limit – the point at which quantum mechanics prevents microchips from getting any faster.
It’s well known that nothing moves faster than light, and that holds true for electronics – systems that use light to control electricity, known as optoelectronics, are the fastest devices. And in the new study, researchers from TU Wien, TU Graz and the Max Planck Institute of Quantum Optics have identified the upper limit for how fast optoelectronics could possibly get.
The team conducted experiments using semiconductor materials and lasers. The semiconductor is hit with an ultra-short laser pulse, which shifts electrons in the material into a higher energy state, allowing them to move around freely. Then, a second, slightly longer laser pulse sends them shooting off in a certain direction, producing an electrical current.
Using this technique, as well as complex computer simulations, the team hit semiconductors with shorter and shorter laser pulses. But at a certain point, the process begins to bump up against Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle – this is the strange quantum quirk where the more accurately you measure one characteristic of a particle, the less you can be sure of another.
In this case, using shorter laser pulses means the observers can tell exactly when the electrons gain energy, but that comes at the cost of being less certain about the amount of energy they gain. And that’s a major problem for electronic devices, because not knowing the exact energies of electrons means they can’t be controlled as precisely.
From this, the team calculated the absolute upper limit for how fast optoelectronic systems could possibly ever get – one Petahertz, which is a million Gigahertz. That’s a hard limit, one that can’t be engineered around because the barrier is baked into the very laws of quantum physics.
Of course, it’s unlikely we’ll ever actually have to directly worry about that anyway. The team says that other technological hurdles would arise long before optoelectronic devices reach the realm of PHz. But understanding the hard limit could help develop better electronics.
The research was published in the journal Nature Communications.
"It is always the best policy to speak the truth, unless of course, you are an exceptionally good liar."
Jerome K. Jerome. [Not to be confused with that other Jerome at the Fed.]
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