Baltic Dry Index. 2605 +17 Brent Crude 107.93
Spot Gold 1922 Wheat 10.64
"War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means."
Carl von Clausewitz.
Stagflation is raising the risk of ‘lost decade’ for 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds, Goldman Sachs says
The World’s Biggest Commodities Markets Are Starting to Seize Up
· Buying and selling is becoming much harder as liquidity slumps
· Traders are exiting key commodities amid wild price swings
By Mark Burton and Alex LongleyMarch 18, 2022, 3:10 PM UTC
It’s getting harder to deal in some of the world’s most important commodities as everything from geopolitical turmoil to exchange snafus prompt traders to rush for the exits, rapidly draining liquidity.
Prices of materials like crude, gas, wheat and metals have become alarmingly erratic as a gulf emerges between buyers and sellers who are facing big financing strains. Markets have been roiled on fears about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constraining commodities flows, though in many cases rallies were quickly followed by a drop in prices.
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Here are the U.S. top 10 imports from Russia as tariffs are set to rise
Published: March 18, 2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET By Chris Matthews
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Thursday to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and its ally Belarus in response to Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, opening the door for large tariff increases on imports of key commodities and raw materials.
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said the Senate will soon take up the bill, setting the stage for President Biden to sign in into law as soon as next week.
“While it has been clear all week that the House would quickly approve this bill, as of yesterday the inherently political decision to put this bill on the Senate floor had not been made, so this announcement from Schumer represents a material escalation of the sanctions investors can anticipate from the President of the United States in the coming days,” wrote Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners in a Thursday note to clients.
Russia is the United States’ 26th largest goods trading partner and imports from the country account for about 1% of total American imports, though Russian sources compose a much larger share of imports of key commodities. For instance, Russian sources accounted for 53% of imports of titanium products, and if Congress revokes Russia’s permanent normalized trade status tariffs on those goods could rise from 15% to 45%. Other commodities that could be affected include aluminum DJUSAL, +2.12%, steel HRN00, +1.25% and gold.
President Biden has legal authority to adjust tariff rates in the event that permanent normal trade relations with Russia are revoked.
Here are the top 10 products imported from Russia in 2021, according to a Congressional Research Service analysis published Thursday:
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In rump-EU news, Euroland has dropped into what looks like becoming a permanent trade deficit. If they think that’s a problem now, just wait until they admit Ukraine to membership.
Euro zone in trade deficit for third month as energy costs surge
March 18, 2022 11:04 AM GMT
BRUSSELS, March 18 (Reuters) - The euro zone's trade balance was in deficit for the third consecutive month in January as surging energy prices led to a sharp increase in the value of imports, even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted further price spikes.
Eurostat said the non-adjusted trade deficit of the 19 countries sharing the euro was 27.2 billion euros ($30.1 billion) compared with a 10.7 billion euro surplus a year earlier in January 2021.
Payments for imports jumped by 44.3% year-on-year, while revenues from exports grew by only 18.9%.
Euro zone trade is rarely in deficit, but this was the third consecutive month of shortfall, and a substantially larger figure than in the previous two months.
The euro zone last had a negative trade balance in January 2014 and last experienced deficits of more than one month in 2011.
Germany's trade surplus fell by 78% from January 2021, France's deficit deepened, while Italy turned from surplus to deficit.
Data for the whole 27-nation European Union showed the cost of energy product imports more than doubled in January from a year earlier, with marked increases also for imports of other raw materials, chemicals and machinery.
The EU's trade deficits with energy supplier Russia more than doubled to 11.9 billion euros and with Norway grew from just 0.1 billion euros a year earlier to 5.8 billion euros. The deficit also nearly doubled with China to almost 34 billion euros, and widened with India and South Korea.
The EU maintained a surplus with the United States, Britain and Switzerland.
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Finally, in the war diplomacy failed to avert, is Kiev losing its nerve? While the article below cites the Eastern European Prime Minister’s meeting in Kiev, leaked Polish intelligence reports say the meeting was actually held in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine. Welcome to the fog of war, truth and deceit, intentional and accidental.
Mixed signals from Ukraine’s president and his aides leave West confused about his end game
John Hudson, Michael Birnbaum, Karen DeYoung March 18, 2022
The mounting death toll in Ukraine has forced President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider concessions to Russia in order to bring an end to the devastating conflict, but the specific elements of any peace deal his government may be discussing with Moscow remain a mystery to Western leaders, said U.S. and European officials.
The secretive rounds of meetings between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators could hold the key to ending the conflict but also carry broader implications for European security depending on how the warring parties settle their differences. If Russian President Vladimir Putin can use military force to compel political change in Ukraine, he could use the same tactic elsewhere, U.S. and European officials fear.
The prospects of a near-term deal look bleak, diplomats say, but mixed signals from Zelensky about how close he is to striking an agreement have only heightened anxiety about the trajectory of the negotiations.
---- Zelensky reiterated that message in even stronger terms on Tuesday when the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia traveled to Kyiv to meet him in a risky wartime visit. “He showed very little interest in a negotiated settlement and said Ukraine needed to keep fighting until Putin altered his demands,” said a diplomat familiar with the discussions, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive meetings.
What a Russia-Ukraine peace deal might look like
At the same time, Zelensky’s top negotiator, Mykhailo Podolyak, has hailed progress in negotiations with Russia and suggested a quick end to the fighting. “Their position has softened significantly,” Podolyak told PBS this week in reference to Russia. “We have much confidence that we will have a cease-fire in the coming days.”
The conflicting forecasts have led to some confusion among Western leaders who see limited movement toward reconciling Russia’s demands with what Ukraine would find acceptable. Moscow has called for the full demilitarization of Ukraine and for Kyiv to recognize the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Moscow in 2014, as Russian territory and the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent countries. Moscow has also called for the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine, a Kremlin term believed to mean the dissolution of the Zelensky government. Ukrainian officials have said all four demands are non-starters but have been open to discussing the issue of neutrality and the country’s relationship to NATO.
“There’s no indication on our end that the Ukrainians are suing for peace. They want to fight,” said a senior U.S. official.
When asked to account for some of Ukraine’s optimistic messaging about a deal, the official said “we’ve been puzzling over this too. We’ve been getting mixed messages.”
More.
War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.
Carl von Clausewitz.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
St. Louis Fed’s Bullard says the central bank should raise rates above 3% this year
Published Fri, Mar 18 2022 7:16 AM EDT
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Friday he thinks the central bank should raise interest rates the equivalent of 12 times this year to convince the public it is serious about fighting inflation.
As the lone dissenter at this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, Bullard said in a statement that he would like to see the central bank’s benchmark interest rate boosted above 3% from the near-0% level where it had stood.
“This would quickly adjust the policy rate to a more appropriate level for the current circumstances,” he said.
Following its two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday said it would raise overnight rates for banks by 0.25 percentage point, historically the typical increment with which the FOMC moves. Accompanying economic projections indicated a path this year that would see the equivalent of seven rate hikes, or 1.75 percentage points.
The move was the first time the Fed has raised the rate since December 2018 and came in response to a stunning increase in inflation that has seen prices rise at their fastest pace in 40 years.
Bullard was the only FOMC member to vote against the move, stating he would have preferred a rate hike of 0.5 percentage point, or 50 basis points. He added the Fed also should have started the process of reducing the nearly $9 trillion in bond holdings it has accumulated over the past 14 years.
In his statement Friday, Bullard said inflation is hurting people the Fed is trying to help the most, namely those on the lower rungs of the economic ladder.
“The burden of excessive inflation is particularly heavy for people with modest incomes and wealth and for those with limited ability to adjust to a rising cost of living,” he said. “The combination of strong real economic performance and unexpectedly high inflation means that the Committee’s policy rate is currently far too low to prudently manage the U.S. macroeconomic situation.”
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World Food Programme says supply chains 'falling apart' in Ukraine
March 18, 2022 11:16 AM GMT
GENEVA, March 18 (Reuters) - A World Food Programme (WFP) official said on Friday that food supply chains in Ukraine were collapsing, with a portion of infrastructure destroyed and many grocery stores and warehouses empty.
"The country's food supply chain is falling apart. Movements of goods have slowed down due to insecurity and the reluctance of drivers," Jakob Kern, WFP Emergency Coordinator for the Ukraine crisis, told a Geneva press briefing by videolink from Poland.
He also expressed concern about the situation in "encircled cities" such as Mariupol, saying that food and water supplies were running out and that its convoys had been unable to enter the city.
WFP buys nearly half of its wheat supplies from Ukraine and Kern said that the crisis there since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24 had pushed up food prices sharply.
"With global food prices at an all-time high, WFP is also concerned about the impact of the Ukraine crisis on food security globally, especially hunger hot spots," he said, warning of "collateral hunger" in other places.
The agency is paying $71 million a month extra for food this year due to both inflation and the Ukraine crisis, he said, adding that such an amount would cover the food supplies for 4 million people. "We are changing suppliers now but that has an impact on prices," he said. "The further away you buy it, the more expensive it gets.
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
"Many intelligence reports in war are contradictory; even more, are false, and most are uncertain."
Carl von Clausewitz.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
That Wuhan lab leak again, and funded by Uncle Sam. Approx. 11 minutes.
Ryan Grim: Scientist At Center Of Lab Leak Controversy Gives EXPLOSIVE Interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1J9MMYPWqw
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
MIT system assigns unwanted tree forks to use in load-bearing structures
Ben Coxworth March 17, 2022
Wood is becoming an increasingly popular building material, but the timber is harvested mainly just from the long, straight trunks of trees. Aiming to reduce waste, an MIT team has developed a method of also using a tree's load-bearing junctions.
Led by Assoc. Prof. Caitlin Mueller, the researchers started by collecting sections of waste wood from a group of trees that had already been cut down in the city of Somerville, Massachusetts. The scientists were specifically interested in the Y-shaped forks where the trunk or a large branch divides in two. Ordinarily, such parts are just chipped into mulch or burned.
"Tree forks are naturally engineered structural connections that work as cantilevers in trees, which means that they have the potential to transfer force very efficiently thanks to their internal fiber structure," said Mueller. "If you take a tree fork and slice it down the middle, you see an unbelievable network of fibers that are intertwining to create these often three-dimensional load transfer points in a tree. We’re starting to do the same thing using 3D printing, but we’re nowhere near what nature does."
Once the scientists had a good collection of forks, they proceed to 3D-scan each one, then add its digital model to a database. Utilizing what's known as a Hungarian algorithm, it was subsequently possible to determine which forks within that database would best meet the load-bearing requirements of a specific Y-shaped node – where two straight pieces of material come together to support a load – in a particular human-made structure.
The system could also work in reverse, showing how other aspects of a structure should be altered in order to utilize a given tree fork for a specific node.
In the next step of the process, another algorithm was used to guide the robotic cutting of the selected forks, so they were able to best fit into and bear the load of their respective node locations. Finally, a computer model guided the team through the assembly process, showing which forks were intended for which nodes.
Although it may be some time before we see an actual building constructed using the technology, Mueller and colleagues did build a proof-of-concept wooden sculpture which was displayed on the MIT campus. Because they were delayed by the pandemic, the piece is still a work in progress – it presently incorporates 12 tree-fork nodes, but should ultimately include approximately 40. It will then be installed in Somerville, at the site where the donor trees once grew.
Source: MIT
This weekend’s musical diversion. That naturalised Englishman again. Springlike. Approx. 3+ minutes.
Handel: Solomon-Nightingale chorus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUZY08wXgE8
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Capablanca's Legendary 12-Move Combination
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH_kRCZayHw
No Sudoku this weekend. Today, how English became English before becoming America?. Approx. 9 minutes.
A Short History of the English Language
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSSTv8-2358
In this weekend’s maths update. The answer for me is no, which is why I never went to Cambridge. Approx. 6 minutes.
Can you solve this Cambridge Interview Question? Simplify the Radical | No Calculators Allowed!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNFbxHQpDxA
"The world has a way of undermining complex plans."
Carl von Clausewitz.
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