Baltic Dry Index. 2369 -48 Brent Crude 108.30
Spot Gold 1921
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 31/03/22 World 487,146,079
Deaths 6,162,461
“It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Some temporary crude oil price relief came yesterday ahead of today’s end of month and end of quarter critical numbers in the stock casinos.
But even if President Biden announces later today a release of 180 million barrels of oil from America’s strategic petroleum reserve, any price relief will just be temporary, until either OPEC+ raises their production or Russia’s oil and gas exports get normalised back into the global economy, preferably both.
In other economic war madness news, Russia is now threatening nuclear war on the fiat dollar reserve standard by threatening to price all its major exports in Roubles.
Given that there are almost no Roubles in international circulation, that would result in a major disruption to the global economy similar to 1971 when Nixon abandoned the dollar-gold link without consulting anyone, or the Arab oli embargo of 1973-74.
But in 2022 the global economy of orders of magnitude bigger, more integrated and massively bogged down in mountains of unrepayable debt.
International anarchy lies directly ahead unless the west’s politicians stop posturing over an already shattered Ukraine, come to their senses and fast come up with a way to end the unnecessary new European war.
I see no sign of any such thing happening rather the reverse. An economic global tragedy looms.
For the short term, have some fully paid up physical gold and silver at hand and in one’s personal control.
Oil prices dive as Biden weighs massive reserves release
March 31, 2022 4:27 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, March 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices dived more than $5 a barrel on Thursday as the United States is considering the release of up to 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) over several months to calm soaring crude prices.
Brent futures for May fell $5.47, or 4.8%, to $107.98 a barrel at 0317 GMT. The May contract expires today and the most actively traded June future was down $5.22 to $106.22.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery fell $6.06, or 5.6%, to $101.76 a barrel after earlier slipping to a low of $100.85.
U.S. President Biden will give remarks later on Thursday announcing the plan, three sources said, aimed at lowering gasoline prices that have risen to records following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. read more
"If it turns out to be as much as that, it would be significant and so would certainly help to a certain extent to fill the shortfall, but not all of it," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, referring to the 180 million barrels figure.
"Another key question is whether this volume would be part of a wider coordinated release."
The International Energy Agency has called an emergency ministerial meeting for Friday to discuss oil supply, a spokesperson for Angus Taylor, the Australian energy Minister, said on Thursday. read more
News of the potential U.S. oil release overshadowed a meeting set for later on Thursday between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies including Russia. The group known as OPEC+ is expected to stick to its existing deal to gradually increase oil production. read more
More
All Russia's big exports could soon be in roubles, Kremlin signals
March 30, 2022 4:43 PM GMT+1
LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - The Kremlin indicated on Wednesday that all of Russia's energy and commodity exports could be priced in roubles, toughening President Vladimir Putin's attempt to make the West feel the pain of the sanctions it imposed for the invasion of Ukraine.
With Russia's economy facing its gravest crisis since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin on March 23 hit back at the West, ordering that Russian gas exports should be paid for in roubles.
That move forced Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to declare on Wednesday an "early warning" that it could be heading for a supply emergency. Germany imported 55% of its gas from Russia last year.
In the strongest signal yet that Russia could be preparing an even tougher response to the West's sanctions, Russia's top lawmaker suggested on Wednesday that almost Russia's entire energy and commodity exports could soon be priced in roubles.
Asked about the comments by parliament speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "This is an idea that should definitely be worked on."
"It may well be worked out," Peskov said of the proposal.
Peskov said that the U.S. dollar's role as a global reserve currency had already taken a hit, and that a move to pricing Russia's biggest exports in roubles would be "in our interests and the interests of our partners."
Europe, which imports about 40% of its gas from Russia and pays mostly in euros, says Russia's state-controlled gas giant Gazprom is not entitled to redraw contracts. read more
"If you want gas, find roubles," Volodin said in a post on Telegram. "Moreover, it would be right - where it is beneficial for our country - to widen the list of export products priced in roubles to include: fertiliser, grain, food oil, oil, coal, metals, timber etc."
Russia exports several hundred billion dollars worth of natural gas to Europe each year. Euros account for 58% of Gazprom exports, U.S. dollars 39% and sterling around 3%, according to the company.
Peskov said Russia will give buyers time to switch to roubles. read more
Still, the exact way in which payments could be made remained unclear as of Wednesday. Russia is trying to both bolster the rouble and, in the longer run, chip away at the dominance of the dollar in pricing global energy and commodities.
More
Germany raises prospect of power rationing with emergency gas plans
Wednesday 30 March 2022 11:32 am
Germany has triggered emergency plans to manage gas supplies following the Kremlin’s demand for contracts to be paid in roubles.
This has raised the prospect of power rationing in Europe’s largest economy if Russia further reduces gas flows into Germany.
Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck has activated the ‘early warning phase’ of an existing emergency plan.
This means that a crisis team from the economics ministry, the regulator and the private sector will monitor domestic imports and storage.
If supplies fall short, Germany’s network regulator can ration gas supplies, with industry being first in line for cuts.
Preferential treatment would be given to private households and hospitals.
Habeck told a news conference the country’s gas supplies were safeguarded for the time being but he urged consumers and companies to reduce consumption, saying “every kilowatt hour counts”.
He said: “We must increase precautionary measures to be prepared for an escalation on the part of Russia. With the declaration of the early warning level, a crisis team has convened.”
European and UK gas prices have spiked over 10 per cent today after the announcement.
The ‘early warning’ phase is the first of three potential stages, with the government able to trigger the “alarm” and “emergency” phases if the situation worsens.
The latest measures from the government follow calls from BDEW – which represents nearly 2,000 supply operators – for the German government to set up an early warning system to tackle potential gas shortages.
Its president, Kerstin Andreae, said: “There are concrete and serious indications that the gas supply situation is about to deteriorate.”
The announcement suggests European Union (EU) member states are bracing for Russia to cut supplies into the region – with Russia not backing down from its request for rouble payments.
The trading bloc remains split over the prospect of imposing sanctions energy sanctions on Russia – with the EU relying on the country for around 40 per cent of its natural gas, and with Germany depending on the country for over half its supplies.
While it suspended the Nord Stream 2 approval process last month – cutting down gas supplies from the country would have serious ramifications for its economy and raise the possibility of blackouts.
Half of Germany’s 41.5m households heat with natural gas while the country’s industry accounted for a third of the 100bn cubic metres of national demand in 2021.
The EU is aiming to cut its dependency on Russian gas by two-thirds this year, and end Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.
https://www.cityam.com/germany-raises-prospect-of-power-rationing-with-emergency-gas-plans/
Russia to unveil rouble payment system
Wednesday 30 March 2022 11:32 am
Russia’s demand for rouble payments was rejected by G7 nations and EU leaders earlier this week.
The call is widely perceived as a retaliation for the West imposing heavy sanctions on following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Last Friday, the US revealed it will aim to supply 15 bcm of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU this year in hopes of easing supply worries.
Russia has not said when the currency change will take effect but could reveal its plans for rouble payments on Thursday later this week.
The country’s central bank, the government and Gazprom are set to present their proposals for rouble gas payments to Russian President Vladimir Putin by March 31.
Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of parliament, has warned that oil, grain, metals, fertiliser, coal and timber exports could also soon be priced the same way.
Markets are anxious to see how the dispute over Russia’s insistence on rouble payments play out as consumers in Europe grapple with exploding energy prices that have forced governments to announce fiscal relief measures.
Russian gas deliveries to Europe on three key pipeline routes showed a slight upward tick on Wednesday morning include the resumption of westward flows on the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany, operator data showed.
Flows along the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Poland returned to a westward flow at the German border point of Mallnow for the first time since March 15, rising to 101,453 kilowatt hours per hour (kWh/h) for the hours from 0700 GMT, data from operator Gascade showed.
Meanwhile, Gazprom has booked westbound transit capacity for Yamal-Europe pipeline for a second day.
The usually westbound pipeline reversed on March 15 as nominations to ship gas into Germany fell to zero, while Polish customers bought gas from Germany.
The Kremlin-backed gas giant has continued to supply gas into Europe via Ukraine in line with requests from European consumers and that flows remain high.
https://www.cityam.com/germany-raises-prospect-of-power-rationing-with-emergency-gas-plans/
BlackRock President Says ‘Entitled Generation’ Now Learning About Shortages
Wed, March 30, 2022, 12:00 AM
(Bloomberg) -- BlackRock Inc. President Rob Kapito warned that inflation is having dramatic effects on the economy, with an entire generation now learning what it means to suffer from shortages.
“For the first time, this generation is going to go into a store and not be able to get what they want,” Kapito said at conference held in Austin by the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association. “And we have a very entitled generation that has never had to sacrifice.”
The economy is reckoning with what he dubbed “scarcity inflation,” or the fallout from a shortage of workers, agricultural supplies and housing, and of oil in some regions.
“I would put on your seat belts because this is something that we haven’t seen,” Kapito said.
Kapito co-founded New York-based BlackRock, which is now the world’s largest asset manager with about $10 trillion in client assets and investments across the global economy.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-kapito-says-scarcity-inflation-230000585.html
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
WFP warns Ukraine war threatens global food security
March 30, 2022 / 3:30 AM
March 30 (UPI) -- The war in Ukraine has created "a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe" unlike anything seen since the Second World War, the United Nations food chief said, warning the conflict could create a global food insecurity problem that would further harm the world's poorest nations.
David Beasley, head of the World Food Program, told the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday that prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine his organization had already begun cutting rations for millions of children and families worldwide due to rising fuel, food and shipping costs.
In Yemen, he said, the WFP, which feeds about 125 million people, had recently cut rations for 8 million people in need by 50% and they are now looking at providing them with zero rations with countries such as Mali, Chad and others facing similar fates.
The war has exacerbated the situation because the two nations involved in the conflict produce 30% of the world's supply of wheat, which is now under threat as Ukrainian farmers put down their hoes for weapons to join the frontline.
Together, they also produce 20% of the world's maze and up to 80% of its sunflower seed oil.
Meanwhile, the WFP buys 50% of its grain from Ukraine with Lebanon dependent upon the country for 81% of its grain and Egypt 85%, he said.
"It's planting season for corn, maze right now for the next four weeks. Well, whose going to be tending the crops? Then you got harvest season for, let's say wheat, coming up in June, July. Well, if the farmers are on the frontlines you can see we're concerned not just about what happens inside Ukraine, but also about what's going to be happening outside," he said, adding that the issue is further compounded by the lack of fertilizer-based products to come from Belarus and Russia.
"So, we're looking at what could be a catastrophe, on top of a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe in the months ahead."
Beasley made his warning days after the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations issued an alert, stating it's "deeply concerned" about the food security situation in Ukraine.
The alert states that assessments of 19 of Ukraine's 24 oblasts indict that food shortages are expected immediately on in the next three months in more than 40% of the cases.
"It is uncertain whether Ukraine will be able to harvest existing crops, plant new ones or sustain livestock production as the conflict evolves," it said. "As insecurity persists, and both local and national supply chains are disrupted, people are likely to fall deeper into emergency levels of hunger and malnutrition."
More
Soaring Prices Are Changing the Way People Eat
Anuradha Raghu & Pratik Parija
Published 11:30 PM
IST, 28 Mar 2022 Updated 06:58 AM IST, 30 Mar 2022
(Bloomberg) -- In India, roadside restaurateurs are halving their palm oil use
and moving into steamed snacks. Bakers in Ivory Coast want to cut the size of
their standard baguette. Sandwiches from U.S. fast-food stalls are headed for
fewer slices of bacon, pizzas for a more parsimonious sprinkle of pepperoni.
With the world economy already shackled by Covid-related shortages and now reeling fewer slices of bacon, pizzas for a more parsimonious sprinkle of pepperoni. With the world economy already shackled by Covid-related shortages and now reeling from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prices of such basics as bread, meat and cooking oils have jumped across the world, sending shock waves through the commodity markets and damaging the global food system.
For the most
vulnerable societies—think Yemen, which imports 90% of its food in the midst of
a grinding conflict and depreciating currency—this poses a genuine risk of
hunger. Elsewhere, it triggers worries about what economists call demand
destruction, a phenomenon when goods get too pricey to purchase.
“The cupboards are bare,” said Julian Conway McGill, head of South East Asia at
consultancy LMC International, “and consumers will have to reduce their
intake.”
In households as well as in the food-services industry, vegetable oils have
become indispensable, used for deep-frying instant noodles, making cakes moist
and giving pastries their flaky texture. Exporters were already grappling with
labor shortages and bad weather. The attack on Ukraine further roiled global
crop trading and sent prices of the two most common oils, palm and soybean, to
records. Governments are starting to step in, curbing exports, controlling
prices and coming down hard on hoarders. But as higher costs seep through to
grocery bills and with festivals in Asia fast approaching, consumers are being
forced to scale back.
more
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Fourth COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose approved for all older Americans
Rich Haridy March 29, 2022
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized a fourth mRNA vaccine dose for all individuals aged 50 and over. The authorization includes both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and is recommended to be administered at least four months after a third dose.
As the United States continues to experience a downturn in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations following the sharp Omicron spike at the beginning of the year, epidemiologists are warning of a looming new wave. The Omicron variant BA.2 is rapidly becoming dominant in the US and, as demonstrated in several countries around the world, it has the potential to cause significant new surges in hospitalizations and deaths.
A third mRNA vaccine dose has been shown to be crucial in generating robust protection against the Omicron variant, but that protection has been seen to wane after three to four months. At the end of 2021 Israel began rolling out a fourth vaccine dose to some older or at-risk populations and early data has indicated the extra dose could be helpful for more ---------vulnerable individuals.
“Current evidence suggests some waning of protection over time against serious outcomes from COVID-19 in older and immunocompromised individuals,” said Peter Marks, head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. “Based on an analysis of emerging data, a second booster dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine could help increase protection levels for these higher-risk individuals.”
The FDA authorization is calling the fourth dose a “second booster,” and is targeting all “individuals 50 years of age and older” who are at least 4 months past their previous vaccine shot. For those under the age of 50 the authorization is much more limited, focusing only on those aged 12 and older with particular medical conditions that leave them in highly immunocompromised states.
“These are people who have undergone solid organ transplantation, or who are living with conditions that are considered to have an equivalent level of immunocompromise,” the FDA authorization stated.
More
Omicron BA.2 subvariant now most dominant strain of COVID-19 in U.S.
March 29, 2022 / 3:03 PM
March 29 (UPI) -- The BA.2 subvariant of Omicron became the most dominant strain of COVID-19 in the United States this week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Tuesday.
Data from the public health agency said 54.9% of all positive COVID-19 tests in the United States from March 20 through Saturday were BA.2. The BA.1.1 subvariant was found in 40.4% of cases and B.1.1.529 was found in 4.7% of cases.
Until this past week, the BA.1.1. strain was the most prevalent in the United States this calendar year, edging out Delta and any other variants of the virus, according to CDC data. The BA.2 subvariant, though, is believed to be about 30% more transmissible than BA.1.1
Omicron is a highly transmissible variant of COVID-19 that became the dominant strain of the virus in fall 2021, causing cases to skyrocket in the new year. The variant, though, is less severe than its predecessor, Delta, so while there was a rise in deaths in December and January, it wasn't as high as earlier spikes.
The CDC reported some 9,600 new COVID-19 cases and 47 deaths Sunday, the most recent day for which data are available.
It's unclear to what extent BA.2 may effect the overall number of cases, which have been on a steady decline since the beginning of the year.
The new CDC data comes as the Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday approved a second booster shot of the COVID-19 vaccine for those over the age of 50 and some with compromised immune systems. The CDC has yet to approve the recommendation.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/03/29/CDC-COVID-19-Omicron-BA2/7221648574277/
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists achieve record efficiency for ultra-thin solar panels
Date: March 29, 2022
Source: University of Surrey
Summary: A team has successfully increased the levels of energy absorbed by wafer-thin photovoltaic panels by 25%. Their solar panels, just one micrometer thick, convert light into electricity more efficiently than others as thin and pave the way to make it easier to general more clean, green energy.
In a paper published in the American Chemical Society's Photonics journal, the team detail how they used characteristics of sunlight to design a disordered honeycomb layer which lies on top of a wafer of silicon. Their approach is echoed in nature in the design of butterfly wings and bird eyes. The innovative honeycomb design enables light absorption from any angle and traps light inside the solar cell, enabling more energy to be generated.
Dr Marian Florescu from the University of Surrey's Advanced Technology Institute (ATI) said, "One of the challenges of working with silicon is that nearly a third of light bounces straight off it without being absorbed and the energy harnessed. A textured layer across the silicon helps tackle this and our disordered, yet hyperuniform, honeycomb design is particularly successful."
The team of researchers from the University of Surrey and Imperial College London worked with experimental collaborators at AMOLF in Amsterdam to design, model and create the new ultra-thin photovoltaic.
n the laboratory, they achieved absorption rates of 26.3 mA/cm2, a 25% increase on the previous record of 19.72 mA/cm2 achieved in 2017. They secured an efficiency of 21% but anticipate that further improvements will push the figure higher, resulting in efficiencies that are significantly better than many commercially available photovoltaics.
Dr Florescu continued, "There's enormous potential for using ultra-thin photovoltaics. For example, given how light they are, they will be particularly useful in space and could make new extra-terrestrial projects viable. Since they use so much less silicon, we are hoping there will be cost savings here on Earth as well, plus there could be potential to bring more benefits from the Internet of Things and to create zero-energy buildings powered locally."
As well as benefiting solar power generation, the findings could also benefit other industries where light management and surface engineering are crucial, for example, photo-electrochemistry, solid-state light emission and photodetectors.
Next steps for the team will include investigating commercial partners and developing manufacturing techniques.
The inflated imitations of gold and silver, which after the rapture are thrown into the fire, all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt. All scrips and bonds are wiped out. At the fourth pillar dedicated to Saturn, split by earthquake and flood: vexing everyone, an urn of gold is found and then restored.
Nostradamus.
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