Baltic Dry Index. 2244 +103 Brent Crude 101.11
Spot Gold 1914
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 25/02/22 World 431,985,347
Deaths 5,947,921
Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of global wheat exports, 19% of world maize (corn) supplies, and 80% of world sunflower oil exports.
Day two of Europe’s new unnecessary war. History will likely judge America and Europe’s diplomats badly. They let the world and everyone in it down.
Only President Macron of France comes out of diplomacy with honour.
As with nearly all wars it’s hard if not impossible to see any winning outcome or winners.
Ukraine of course loses, the war, after all, for now, is getting fought in the Ukraine. Death, destruction and injury are Ukraine’s immediate lot.
It’s hard to see a winning outcome for Russia. Big as it is Russia’s population and economy are too small to occupy the Ukraine for very long. Global sanctions will eventually cost Russia more than any temporary “win.”
But the rest of the world loses out too. It loses because diplomacy failed. It loses because we are now locked in to a year or two of massive global food price inflation with all the social distress and disorder that follows.
Even if Russia’s share of the above food exports continues unaffected, unlikely, Ukraine will likely not be a grain producer or exporter this year.
About the only good news from yesterday, Russia wasn’t kicked out of SWIFT, the international banking payments system and the financial chaos that would follow.
But as things stand on war day two, that looks all too likely to follow sooner rather than later.
Unintentionally, Russia’s invasion shows the need for crypto currency. I wonder if anyone stuck in the fiat currencies will notice.
In the stock casinos, Ukraine’s tragedy is merely a bore. But to this old dinosaur market trader, Casino rallies are merely exit rallies.
Asian shares rebound but markets eye long-term Russia-Ukraine risk
February 25, 2022 5:06 AM GMT
SINGAPORE, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Asian markets rebounded on Friday following Wall Street's surprising overnight reversal, as investors weighed the longer-term impact of tough Western sanctions against Russia after it unleashed troops, tanks and missiles on Ukraine.
European stock markets looked set to follow Asia higher even as Russia pressed its attacks and global condemnation grew, with FTSE futures adding 0.78%, European futures up 2.2% and German stock market DAX futures rising 1.56%.
But U.S. share futures slipped in Asian trade, with S&P500 e-mini futures losing 0.61% and Nasdaq futures down 0.92%.
Some analysts said the sanctions by the United States, Europe and a number of other countries were not as strong as markets had feared.
While Western nations redoubled their efforts to crimp Russia's ability to do business -- freezing bank assets and cutting off state-owned enterprises -- they stopped short of disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT international banking system or targeting its oil and gas exports, which some analysts said had helped markets to recover. read more
"The limits to the economic pain that the 'West' was prepared to tolerate to support Ukraine and punish Russia have been revealed within 24 hours of Russia's offensive beginning," Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note.
"The Russian offensive has occurred in a time of already high inflation and commodity shortages globally, and the West has blinked immediately. The process of throwing Ukraine under the geopolitical bus has begun. Markets clearly felt the same way, that this is the worst it can get...Thereafter, the power of buy-the-dip proved irresistible."
----Investors rediscovered their risk appetite overnight after some initial sharp losses, with major U.S. indices posting gains, led by tech stocks.
But some analysts worry any rallies might be fleeting.
"Biden's sanctions and reluctance to pour troops in is providing some relief. But this conflict is going to be a protracted issue and add to global inflationary pressures that will keep central banks on track for tightening," said Kyle Rodda, analyst at IG Markets in Melbourne.
"It's okay for now, but in the long-term the market will be tracking to the downside," he said.
More
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-02-25/
U.S., EU unlikely to cut Russia off SWIFT for now -Biden
February 24, 2022 11:57 PM GMT
WASHINGTON/BRUSSELS, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The United States and the European Union have opted not to cut Russia off from the SWIFT global interbank payments system as part of their sanctions against Moscow for invading Ukraine, but could revisit that issue, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday.
Asked why that step was not taken, Biden told reporters the sanctions imposed against Russian banks exceeded the impact of cutting Russia off from SWIFT, and other countries had failed to agree on taking the additional step at this point.
"It is always an option," Biden said. "But right now, that's not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take."
Several EU sources had told Reuters before the sanctions were announced that the EU was unlikely to agree to the move, despite calls from various quarters to do so. read more
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany - a key trading partner of Russia - opposed cutting off Russia's access to the payment system at this point, but also suggested such a step could still follow at a later stage.
---- The foreign ministers of the Baltic states, once ruled from Moscow but now members of NATO and the EU, called on Thursday to stop Russia's access to SWIFT.
Other EU member states are reluctant to make such a move because, while it would hit Russian banks hard, it would make it tough for European creditors to get their money back and Russia has in any case been building up an alternative payment system.
"Urgency and consensus is utmost priority at the moment," said an EU diplomat, adding that at this stage it meant no move on SWIFT, because doing so would have such wide-ranging consequences, also in Europe.
Another EU diplomat said: "I am not aware of an agreement (on SWIFT sanctions) at this point."
Data from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) shows that European lenders hold the lion's share of the nearly $30 billion in foreign banks' exposure to Russia.
Belgium-based SWIFT, a messaging network widely used by banks to send and receive money transfer orders or information, is overseen by central banks in the United States, Japan and Europe.
Russia halts vessel movement in Azov sea, Black Sea open
Thu, February 24, 2022, 8:13 AM
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia has suspended movement of commercial vessels in the Azov sea until further notice, but kept its ports in the Black Sea open for navigation, its officials and five grain industry sources said on Thursday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin authorised "a special military operation" against Ukraine on Thursday to eliminate what he called a serious threat, saying his aim was to demilitarise Russia's southern neighbour.
Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, mainly ships its grain from ports in the Black Sea.
The Azov sea is home to shallow water ports of smaller capacity.
"All ships are on 'stop' (in the Azov sea)," a grain industry source told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Chicago's most active wheat contract is up 5.6% at its highest since mid-2012.
Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of global wheat exports, 19% of world maize (corn) supplies, and 80% of world sunflower oil exports.
Russia produced 76 million tonnes of wheat last year and is expected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to export 35 million tonnes in the July-June season, 17% of the global total.
Russia supplies wheat to all the major global buyers. Turkey and Egypt are the largest importers.
Ukraine asked Turkey to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to the Russian ships, the Ukrainian ambassador to Ankara said earlier on Thursday.
There has been no reaction yet to Ankara's request.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-halts-vessel-movement-azov-081306940.html
Ukrainian central bank suspends electronic cash transfers, bolstering the use case for crypto
Ukraine’s central bank is cracking down on digital money transfers in one of the latest measures implemented in connection with a nationwide declaration of martial law.
The National Bank of Ukraine ordered electronic money (e-money) issuers to suspend the issuance of e-money and the replenishment of electronic wallets with e-money. The written order also indicated that the distribution of e-money was temporarily off limits.
The reference to electronic money likely refers to fiat currencies held in digital accounts through platforms like Venmo or PayPal.
This is one among many new rules rolled out by the country’s central bank as Russian forces lay siege across Ukraine.
The National Bank of Ukraine released a statement on Thursday with a spate of resolutions, including an order to suspend the foreign exchange market, limit cash withdrawals, and prohibit the issuance of foreign currency from retail bank accounts.
As Ukraine cracks down on pathways to cash and Moscow unleashes airstrikes and ground troops, some Ukrainians are instead turning to cryptocurrencies.
Kuna, a popular Ukrainian crypto exchange, shows that domestic buyers are paying a premium for Tether’s USDT stablecoin, which is pegged to the price of the U.S. dollar.
“We don’t trust the government. We don’t trust the banking system. We don’t trust the local currency,” said Michael Chobanian, the founder of Kuna, in an interview with Coindesk. “The majority of people have nothing else to choose apart from crypto.”
Tether is the most popular stablecoin by market cap at nearly $80 billion, and unlike cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum — which have experienced a great deal of volatility in recent weeks amid growing geopolitical tensions — tether, like other stablecoins of its kind, is generally pretty stable in value.
At the current exchange rate, however, the price for 1 USDT is roughly 32 Ukrainian hryvnia (the national currency), or $1.10, thanks to increased demand.
For months, Ukrainian leaders have been looking to rebrand as a mecca for digital currencies.
More
China refuses to call Russian attack on Ukraine an ‘invasion,’ deflects blame to U.S.
- China’s assistant foreign minister, Hua Chunying, was asked by reporters several times whether she would call Russia’s attacks an invasion but she repeatedly avoided giving a yes or no answer.
- In response to one reporter, Hua appeared to express frustration at the question and said, “The U.S. has been fueling the flame, fanning up the flame, how do they want to put out the fire?”
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/china-refuses-to-call-attack-on-ukraine-an-invasion-blames-us.html
There are no military solutions - dialogue and diplomacy are the only guarantee of lasting peace.
Martin McGuinness.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Record-High Global Food Prices Imminent As Edible Oil Soars
Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 - 10:00 AM
Edible oil prices soared this week, prompting fears that record-high food prices could be imminent. On Wednesday, soybean oil futures in Chicago hit their highest levels since 2008, and palm oil, the commodity used in thousands of food products, jumped to new highs.
Soybean prices increased 1.4% to 71 cents per pound, the highest level since 2008. US canola futures are also on the verge of an all-time high, and palm oil in Malaysia hit a new record high of $1,434 per ton.
Drought has crimped soybean crops across South America this season. Rival oilseeds like palm and canola have also suffered shortfalls from adverse weather and labor shortages. And escalating political tensions involving Ukraine and Russia pose a risk for sunflower oil exports, which the two countries dominate," according to Bloomberg.
Ivy Ng, the regional head of plantations research at CGS-CIMB Securities, said,
"for the supply side, everything that could go wrong, went wrong; problems "hit all the key producing countries, whether it's palm oil or a competing oil. There's no reprieve in the short term, and people are reacting to that."
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie warned that shortages across commodities could send higher prices. He said markets are "incredibly tight from a physical perspective" ... "we are out of everything, I don't care if its oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we're out of it."
Soaring edible oils could be the next catalyst that catapults the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Food Price Index (FFPI), a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, to a new record high for February. New FFPI data is expected in early March. As for now, FFPI sits near a record high in terms of January prices.
More
Citing drought, US won't give water to California farmers
Wed, February 23, 2022, 8:55 PM
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — With California entering the third year of severe drought, federal officials said Wednesday they won’t deliver any water to farmers in the state’s major agricultural region — a decision that will force many to plant fewer crops in the fertile soil that yields the bulk of the nation’s fruits, nuts and vegetables.
“It's devastating to the agricultural economy and to those people that rely on it,” said Ernest Conant, regional director for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. “But unfortunately we can't make it rain.”
The federal government operates the Central Valley Project in California, a complex system of dams, reservoirs and canals. It's one of two major water systems the state relies on for agriculture, drinking water, and the environment. The other system is run by the state government.
---- Farmers started last year with a 5% allocation from the federal government but ended at 0% as the drought intensified. This year, the federal government is starting farmers at 0% while water for other purposes, including drinking and industrial uses, is at 25%.
"Last year was a very bad year. This year could turn out to be worse,” Conant said.
Westlands Water District, the nation's largest agricultural water district covering 1,000 square miles (2,590 square kilometers) in Fresno and Kings counties, said drought conditions last year caused farmers to fallow 200,000 acres (80,937 hectares) while leaving “thousands of acres of food unharvested.” The district said it is the fourth time this decade that farmers south of the San Joaquin-Sacramento River Delta have gotten no water from the federal government.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/citing-drought-feds-wont-water-205526782.html
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
German Health Insurer Reveals 'Alarming' Underreporting Of Vaccine Side-Effects
Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 - 01:40 AM
A large German health insurance provider revealed on Wednesday that Covid-19 vaccine side-effects are vastly underreported, according to Welt.
After analyzing data from over 10 million individuals, BKK ProVita board member Andreas Schöfbeck, over a 7.5 month period beginning in early 2021, 216,695 policyholders out of 10.9 million were treated for vaccine side-effects. This compares to 244,576 reports out of 61.4 million reported by the Paul Ehrlich Institute - a German federal agency.
Germany has a population of around 83 million people.
Schöfbeck called the data an "alarm signal," adding "The numbers determined are significant and urgently need to be checked for plausibility."
"The data available to our company gives us reason to believe that there is a very considerable under-recording of suspected cases of vaccination side-effects after they received the [COVID-19] vaccine."
“If these figures are applied to the year as a whole and to” the entire population of Germany, Schöfbeck estimated, then “probably 2.5-3 million people in Germany been under medical treatment because of vaccination side effects after [COVID-19] vaccination.”
As Jack Phillips of The Epoch Times notes:
Schöfbeck concluded that based on their data, “there is a significant underreporting of vaccination side-effects” in Germany.
Another letter that was sent out by BKK (pdf) suggested that vaccination side effects reported across Germany are at least 10 times more common than what was reported by the Paul-Ehrlich Institute, reported the Nordkurier newspaper on Wednesday.
Schöfbeck’s letters were also sent to Germany’s Standing Vaccination Commission and the German Medical Association.
The letters did not elaborate on the severity of the side effects, nor did they provide a breakdown of the symptoms, or which vaccines caused the side effects. Germany’s drug regulator has approved COVID-19 vaccines manufactured by Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, NovaVax, and Moderna.
Federal health officials in the United States and Germany have stressed that COVID-19 vaccines’ benefits outweigh the potential risks.
And the Paul Ehrlich Institute, the German federal health agency that regulates vaccines and medicines, asserts on its website that COVID-19 vaccine side effects are very rare. They list myocarditis, the inflammation of the heart muscle; and pericarditis, the inflammation of the pericardium, as rare side effects associated with COVID-19 vaccines.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Not the usual update today. Today an update of sunspot cycle 25.
Solar Cycle 25 starting with a bang!
February 24, 2022
The sun has been active lately! Sunspots have peppered its visible face every day so far in 2022. We’ve had storms on the sun’s surface (aka solar flares) causing coronal mass ejections – great clouds of solar plasma – to leave the sun. And so we’ve seen more geomagnetic storms and displays of high-latitude auroras, or northern lights. Our sun follows an 11-year cycle of activity. And the current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, began in 2020. Since then, activity on the sun has ramped up quickly. So does that mean this cycle will be more active than the last? Not necessarily.
The graph below can help explain why we shouldn’t assume that an early and strong start to Solar Cycle 25 means a stronger cycle overall lies ahead. Ron Turner is an analyst at ANSER, a research institute in Virginia. He’s been studying the sun’s 11-year cycle for many years. He told SpaceWeather.com earlier this month that:
… It might be too early to anticipate a strong solar cycle … I took sunspot numbers from the early years of Solar Cycle 24 and overlaid them on Solar Cycle 25. They’re an almost perfect match.
And Solar Cycle 24 was the quietest (fewest sunspots) solar cycle in 100 years.
Will Solar Cycle 25 be like Solar Cycle 24? Or will it continue to ramp up, bringing with it more visible sunspots – more solar flares and prominences – and more Earth-directed coronal mass ejections and aurora?
It’s too soon to say.
Bottom line: Is the increased activity early in solar cycle 25 a sign of a busy peak to come? Maybe not, says an expert.
Another weekend and a sad weekend ahead in Europe. How could the diplomats fail so miserably? It’s almost as if all, but President Macron, wanted to fail. Have a great weekend everyone. I’ll add the Ukraine to my Sunday Mass intentions.
Diplomacy is listening to what the other guy needs. Preserving your own position, but listening to the other guy. You have to develop relationships with other people so when the tough times come, you can work together.
Colin Powell.
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