Baltic Dry Index. 1964 +78 Brent Crude 93.54
Spot Gold 1898
Ludwig von Mises.
Biden sure Putin will invade Ukraine in days as civilians bussed out
By Anton Zverev, Pavel Polityukand Polina Nikolskaya February 19, 20222:18 AM GMT
MOSCOW/KYIV/DONETSK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Russia's Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine within days, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday after separatists backed by Moscow told civilians to leave breakaway regions on buses, a move the West fears is part of a pretext for an attack.
In one of the worst post-Cold War crises, Russia wants to stop Kyiv joining NATO and accuses the West of hysteria, saying it has no plans to invade, while the United States and allies are adamant the military build-up continues.
Warning sirens blared in Donetsk and Luhansk on Friday after rebel leaders there announced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people to Russia.
"We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days," Biden told reporters at the White House, adding that Kyiv would be a target.
"As of this moment, I am convinced that he has made the decision."
Late on Friday, Ukraine's military intelligence said Russian special forces had planted explosives at social infrastructure facilities in Donetsk, and it urged residents to stay at home. The Russian Federal Security Service did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Citing correspondents on the ground, Russian news agencies later reported that two explosions hit Luhansk, one of the main cities in Ukraine's breakaway People's Republic of Luhansk, and a section of a gas pipeline in the area caught fire.
Earlier, separatist leaders in Donetsk and Luhansk issued video statements in which they announced the evacuations and accused Ukraine of preparing to attack both regions soon - an accusation Kyiv said was false.
But at least one of the videos appeared to have been created on Wednesday before the latest flare-up in shelling began, according to metadata, embedded in the footage. That raised suspicions among Western analysts although it can be overwritten.
More
Stocks fall, bonds rise on Ukraine tensions
February 18, 2022 9:43 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - A gauge of global stocks fell and government debt prices rose on Friday after hopes that diplomacy might resolve the Ukraine crisis faded on news Russian-backed separatists were evacuating residents from breakaway regions in the country's east.
Sentiment soured as shelling increased in eastern Ukraine and a rebel leader announced the surprise evacuation, a surprise development in a conflict the West suspects Russia will use to justify an all-out invasion of its neighbor. read more
The dollar rebounded and the safe-haven Swiss franc rose as a mood that had improved on news late on Thursday that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken would meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov next week darkened again.
The dollar index , a measure of the greenback to six major trading currencies, rose 0.301%, while the euro against the franc fell 0.19%. The two currencies often are recipients of a flight to safety during times of crisis.
Investors are waiting for the three-day weekend to be over to assess an equity market already weaker on the outlook that rising interest rates will hurt growth stocks, said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments.
"Coming into this weekend with geopolitical concerns and what's been a persistently weak market, a lot of people threw in the towel," Meckler added.
In Europe, the pan-regional STOXX 600 share index retreated from initial gains to close down 0.81%, with travel and banking shares leading the decline. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.85%, down almost 7% this year.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 0.68%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 0.72% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 1.23%. All but one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors fell, with the exception being consumer staples, which do well in economic downturns.
The worst-case scenario, after discounting an all-out war, would be Russia occupying most of Ukraine and suffering severe economic consequences, which would slow the global economy, said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds.
More
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-02-18/
Analysis: As stocks swing, investors bet choppy markets are here to stay
February 18, 2022 7:37 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - After a turbulent start to the year, investors are betting stock market volatility isn’t going away anytime soon.
While tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been the most recent driver of stock market gyrations, many expect inflation, uncertainty over monetary policy and stretched valuations to keep stirring asset prices this year, even if geopolitical fears subside. read more
The Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), often called Wall Street's "fear gauge,” recently stood at 29, some 11 points higher than its historical median. Volatility futures at least eight months out show markets pricing increased stock market gyrations for much of the year.
Some 78% of U.S. investment professionals responsible for fund selection and portfolio construction anticipate a rise in stock market volatility in 2022, according to a recently released Natixis Investment Managers Survey.
"This is not just Ukraine ... investors understand that this is not going to be an easy year, " said Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, which provides risk mitigation strategies for institutional investors.
More
Factbox: Commodity supplies at risk if Russia hit by sanctions
February 18, 202212:02 PM GMT
MOSCOW, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Escalating tensions between Moscow and Western countries over Ukraine and the possibility of sanctions against Russia have fuelled fears supplies of key commodities produced and exported by Russian companies could suffer. read more
The United States and European countries have threatened to impose sanctions on Russia if it invades Ukraine, something Moscow has repeatedly denied planning.
Prices of nickel and aluminium have soared to multi-year highs on supply disruption fears. read more
Following are some details about Russia's major commodity exports.
ALUMINIUM
Most Russian metal producers have so far escaped sanctions imposed by the West since Moscow annexed the Crimea in 2014.
One exception is the world's largest aluminium producer outside China, Rusal , under sanctions imposed by the United States between April 2018 and early 2019.
Rusal produced 3.8 million tonnes of aluminium in 2021, about 6% of the estimated world production.
----COBALT
Data from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shows Russia produced 7,600 tonnes of cobalt last year, more than 4% of world total.
Russia was the second largest producer, far behind the Democratic Republic of Congo which produced 120,000 tonnes.
COPPER
Russia produced 920,000 tonnes of refined copper last year, about 3.5% of the world total, according to USGS, out of which Nornickel produced 406,841 tonnes.
UMMC and Russian Copper Company are the other two major producers.
Asia and Europe are the main export markets.
NICKEL
Nornickel is the world's top producer of refined nickel. It produced 193,006 tonnes in 2021 or about 7% of global mine production estimated at 2.7 million tonnes. It sells to global industrial consumers under long-term contracts.
PALLADIUM AND PLATINUM
Nornickel is also the world's largest producer of palladium and a major producer of platinum.
It produced 2.6 million troy ounces of palladium last year or 40% of global mine production and 641,000 ounces of platinum or about 10% of total mine production.
GOLD
Russia is the world's third largest producer of gold after Australia and China and accounts for about 10% of global mine production, which according to the World Gold Council totalled 3,500 tonnes last year.
More
US stocks could tumble almost 20% on Russia-Ukraine tensions — and investors are being too complacent, RBC says
Fri, February 18, 2022, 12:38 PM
A Russian invasion of Ukraine could hammer stocks in similar fashion to the two Iraq wars or the US-China trade war of 2018, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said, warning that investors are underestimating the threat.
In the build-up to the first Gulf War in 1991, the S&P 500 stock index tumbled 19.9%, and ahead of the Iraq War in 2003, it dropped 33.6%, RBC's analysts said in a note to clients Thursday. During the US-China trade war, stocks fell by 19.8%.
RBC analysts, led by chief strategist Lori Calvasina, said they don't necessarily expect the same magnitude of decline today. However, they believe it's informative to look back at past periods of geopolitical crisis for insights into the current situation.
"It is useful to remember that the two Iraq wars were associated with peak-to-trough stock-market declines that resemble growth scares and recessions," they said. "Both drops occurred ahead of the actual conflict when tensions were building."
The likelihood of US sanctions against Russia means the China trade war may provide the best point of comparison with Russia, Calvasina and colleagues wrote.
However, they said it's also an imperfect comparison because Russia is a far less important trading partner to the US than China.
Nevertheless, RBC said: "Geopolitical risk emanating from Russia/Ukraine is not priced into the US equity market, should conditions worsen, and will be a key issue to watch in the weeks and months ahead."
More
https://news.yahoo.com/us-stocks-could-tumble-almost-123818836.html
In other non-new European war news, despite the Brexit embittered, extreme left wing, Trudeau apologizing, BBC, GB gets on with making a success of Brexit.
UK reaches agreement with £8.4 trillion Asia-Pacific free trade club
Friday 18 February 2022 9:40 am
The UK has reached an agreement with Asian free trade partnership Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Nearly a part of the £8.4 trillion club, the UK will now enter the market access phase of negotiations with the free trade area.
It comes ahead of international trade secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan’s trip to Indonesia, Japan and Singapore next week.
“CPTPP is one of the largest and most exciting free-trading clubs in the world. Today’s announcement is a major milestone for us joining this dynamic group of economies and means the finish line is in sight,” said Trevelyan.
“I look forward to visiting Asia next week and flying the flag for Global Britain by holding valuable trade talks with key partners across the Indo-Pacific region and pushing to secure CPTPP accession by the end of the year.
“This is just one aspect of our Indo-Pacific strategy, which will benefit businesses and consumers across every part of the UK and help us to level up at home.”
Once complete, it will be a significant milestone in the country’s post-Brexit trade ties.
The government is also reportedly looking to ink deals with individual US states, after president Joe Biden said a trade past with the UK was not a priority.
https://www.cityam.com/uk-reaches-agreement-with-8-4-trillion-asia-pacific-free-trade-club/
Freedom is indivisible. As soon as one starts to restrict it, one enters upon a decline on which it is difficult to stop.
Ludwig von Mises.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Exclusive-India makes record U.S. soyoil purchases as drought parches South America
Fri, February 18, 2022, 8:01 AM
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Indian traders have contracted to import a record 100,000 tonnes of soyoil from the United States because of limited supplies from drought-hit South America, at a time when prices of rival palm oil are scaling record highs, three dealers told Reuters.
The higher purchases from the United States are expected to support U.S. soy oil prices, which have climbed nearly 20% this year to close to their highest in a decade, fuelling worries about food inflation.
The world's biggest edible oil importer traditionally buys soyoil from Argentina and Brazil, but lower bean output in these two leading exporters of the commodity forced New Delhi to turn to the United States, they said.
"Indian buyers have bought U.S soyoil vessels. Prices were attractive and supplies were not enough in South America," said the India head of a global trading firm, who sought anonymity because of the company's policy.
---- India usually gets two-thirds of its soyoil needs from Argentina, and the rest from Brazil.
But last season's reduced soybean output has tightened soyoil reserves in Argentina, forcing Indian buyers to shop around for alternatives, such as sunoil from the Black Sea region.
"Sunflower oil is cheaper than palm and soyoil, but some buyers are sceptical about deliveries because of geopolitical tension (in Russia)," said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage and consultancy firm.
"They are going with soyoil."
Crude palm oil (CPO) is being offered at about $1,575 a tonne, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), in India for March shipments, compared with $1,620 for crude soybean oil and $1,515 for crude sunflower oil, traders said.
Soyoil was cheaper than palm and sunflower oil last month, but the sudden jump in soyoil demand has lifted prices by 16% in a month to the highest in 14 years, traders said.
India gets nearly two-thirds of its edible oil needs through imports, mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia.
But Indonesia's decision to curb palm oil exports has lifted the price of the tropical oil to a record and created scarcity in the edible oil market, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.
---- This month, Brazilian statistics agency Conab slashed its soy output estimate for the 2021/2022 cycle by about 15 million tonnes, while Paraguay's soybean harvest could fall by as much as half.
Top soyoil exporter Argentina also faces a drop of 5 million tonnes in soybean output for 2021/22.
In addition, lower water levels on Argentina's key Parana river have left it struggling to fully load soybean vessels, so that cargo sizes have been reduced by up to 30%
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-india-makes-record-u-080145888.html
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Credit expansion can bring about a temporary boom. But such a fictitious prosperity must end in a general depression of trade, a slump.
Ludwig von Mises.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Despite draconian lockdowns, global isolation, all but mandatory vaccinations, omicron has beaten New Zealand’s Prime Minister. Vaccination against the original form of Covid-19 is of only marginal use against the highly infectious, but much milder variant omicron.
The Saturday decline is probably just the usual weekend drop in reporting cases.
Covid-19 update: 1901 new community cases reported in New Zealand today
February 19, 2022
The number of new daily community cases of Covid-19 has fallen slightly from yesterday's record, with 1901 new cases reported in New Zealand today.
In a statement, the Ministry of Health said 1240 of the new cases were in Auckland, with the rest in the Northland (33), Waikato (249), Bay of Plenty (66), Lakes (11), Hawke's Bay (22), MidCentral (12), Whanganui (10), Taranaki (10), Tairāwhiti (12), Wairarapa (17), Capital and Coast (38), Hutt Valley (31), Nelson Marlborough (40), Canterbury (40), South Canterbury (2), West Coast (1) and Southern (65) DHBs.
There were also 14 cases identified at the border, including five historical cases.
There were 1929 community cases reported yesterday.
There have now been 28,360 cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand since the pandemic began.
The Ministry said there are 76 people in hospital with the coronavirus. None are in ICU.
A total of 25,364 vaccine booster doses were given yesterday, as well as 1039 first doses, 897 second doses and 761 paediatric doses.
More than 2.1 million booster shots have now been given across New Zealand.
More
Health minister: Germany has crossed omicron peak
February 18, 2022
BERLIN (AP) — Germany has crossed over the peak of new daily infections with the omicron variant of COVID-19, the country’s health minister said on Friday.
Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said government measures to curb infection numbers have been effective, but he warned against relaxing the public health rules too hastily.
“We are not really in safe waters,” he told reporters in Berlin.
Lauterbach, an epidemiologist by training, noted that as many as 12% of people over age 60 in Germany are still unvaccinated. That share is three to four times higher than that of unvaccinated, vulnerable population groups in comparable countries.
Germany has been slower than many of its neighbors to relax pandemic restrictions. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the country’s 16 state governors agreed Wednesday on a three-step plan to end most of the country’s COVID-19 rules by March 20.
More
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Ludwig von Mises.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Well, if they say so, but does time fly?
Physicists measure gravitational time warp to within one millimeter
Michael Irving February 17, 2022
The flow of time isn’t as consistent as we might think – gravity slows it down, so clocks on the surface of Earth tick slower than those in space. Now researchers have measured time passing at different speeds across just one millimeter, the smallest distance yet.
The idea that time would be affected by gravity was first proposed by Albert Einstein in 1915, as part of his theory of general relativity. Space and time are inextricably linked, and large masses warp the fabric of spacetime with their immense gravitational influence. This has the effect of making time pass more slowly closer to a large mass like a planet, star, or, in the most extreme example, a black hole. This phenomenon is known as time dilation.
Here on Earth, time dilation effectively means that time moves more quickly at higher elevations. So for instance, time passes faster on the summit of Mount Everest than at sea level, but it applies over smaller distances too – someone living in a 10th floor apartment will age faster than someone on the first floor, and your head ages faster than your feet.
Of course, the differences in the passage of time across these distances are so tiny as to be unnoticeable, but they can be measured using atomic clocks, which keep time very precisely using the reliable ticks of atoms. By comparing atomic clocks on satellites and planes to those on the ground, scientists have been able to measure time dilation over distances of up to thousands of kilometers. But in a new study, researchers at JILA have measured time dilation over the smallest distance yet – just one millimeter.
To make this measurement, the team used an atomic clock composed of an ultracold cloud of about 100,000 strontium atoms. The clock’s “ticking” comes from the atoms switching back and forth between two energy levels, which they do at an extremely reliable frequency. Through careful control of these energy states, the team was able to make all the atoms in the cloud tick in perfect unison for 37 seconds, a record length of time.
Currently, the force of gravity can’t be explained in terms of quantum physics, but being able to measure its effects on smaller and smaller scales could unlock its secrets and perhaps reveal the missing link between quantum and classical physics.
In this particular atomic clock, the atoms were loaded into an optical lattice, which arranges them into several thin layers like a stack of pancakes. Once the atoms were ticking in unison, the scientists used extremely precise imaging techniques to measure the ticking in the top of the stack compared to the bottom.
And sure enough, they detected a difference between the two regions, due to the time dilation. The shift in frequencies was of course tiny, only 0.0000000000000000001, but it was measurable.
The team says that this work could not only help make atomic clocks 50 times more precise than they are now, but it could open up new tools to probe the mysteries of physics. Currently, the force of gravity can’t be explained in terms of quantum physics, but being able to measure its effects on smaller and smaller scales could unlock its secrets and perhaps reveal the missing link between quantum and classical physics.
“The most important and exciting result is that we can potentially connect quantum physics with gravity, for example, probing complex physics when particles are distributed at different locations in the curved space-time,” said Jun Ye, lead author of the study. “Being able to measure the time difference on such a minute scale could enable us to discover, for example, that gravity disrupts quantum coherence, which could be at the bottom of why our macroscale world is classical.”
The research was published in the journal Nature. The team explains the work in the video below.
This weekend’s musical diversion. The very underrated Johann F. Fasch again. Approx.8 minutes.
Johann Friedrich Fasch: Concerto in F major for Recorder, Strings and B.c. FWV L:F6
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibh_UGtPdwQ
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Faster is Always Better! || Aronian vs Nakamura || Fide Grand Prix Final
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cH_HOGNiaXw
This weekend’s maths update. Calculus. Approx. 21 minutes.
How I would explain Calculus to a 6th grader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSfYKaJSawI
A society that chooses between capitalism and socialism does not choose between two social systems; it chooses between social cooperation and the disintegration of society.
Ludwig von Mises.
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