Baltic Dry Index. 1977 +37 Brent Crude 94.44
Spot Gold 1859
The most cogent reason for restricting the interference of government is the great evil of adding unnecessarily to its power.
John Stuart Mill.
From the rising panic in Washington and London, are they expecting Russia to invade the Ukraine on Sunday while America is obsessed with watching the Super Bowl and the main US-Canada border crossing is all but closed to virtually all traffic?
Ever so slowly the stock casinos and the oil and gas companies, are starting to take a new European war seriously. Did Washington and London overplay their hand?
Did Macron fail to deliver, Washington, London and Kiev?
If so, there’s one final chance for diplomacy in today’s “Hail Mary” phone call between Biden and Putin at Biden’s request, but realistically real concessions will have to come from Washington and given the politics in Washington that’s highly unlikely.
War, if it starts, will send oil and gas prices surging, bonds and stocks plummeting and millions across Europe facing a stark choice of paying for heating or food.
Tactically though, invading on Super Bowl Sunday has a lot going for it. One way or another we’ll know by the casinos opening on Monday.
Dow sheds 500 points Friday, stocks book weekly declines on Ukraine and inflation concerns
Oil prices jumped in afternoon trading Friday amid escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia.
With about 2 hours left to the trading day, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said at a White House briefing that there were signs of Russian escalation at the Ukraine border and that it was possible that an invasion could take place during the Olympics, despite speculation to the contrary.
“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border. As we’ve said before, we are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time,” Sullivan said Friday.
Sullivan noted that the U.S. is not certain that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a final decision to invade Ukraine. But “it may well happen soon,” he said. Stocks came off their lows, and oil and bond prices retreated from their highs of the trading session following that comment from Sullivan, which slightly countered an earlier report that had sent markets reeling.
The U.S. and U.K. have urged citizens to leave Ukraine.
A Downing Street spokesperson said Prime Minister Boris Johnson feared for the “security of Europe in the current circumstances.”
The spokesperson added that Russian President Vladimir Putin “had to understand that there would be severe penalties that would be extremely damaging to Russia’s economy, and that Allies needed to continue with efforts to reinforce and support the Eastern frontiers of NATO.”
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, rose more than 5% to hit $94.66 per barrel, its highest level since Sept. 30, 2014. The contract eased a bit into the close, however, ending the day 3.58% higher at $93.10 per barrel.
International benchmark Brent crude advanced 3.3% to settle at $94.44 per barrel, after topping $95 at one point.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/oil-jumps-amid-escalating-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine.html
U.S. inflation data is like a ‘punch in the stomach’ for the Fed, says Citi economist
Published Fri, Feb 11 2022 12:16 AM EST
The latest U.S. January inflation data came in like a “punch in the stomach” for the Federal Reserve, which raises the possibility for an aggressive 50 basis points rate hike in March, the global chief economist of Citi Research said.
The consumer price index for January, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% year-on-year, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
“This inflation data today came like a punch in the stomach for Jay Powell and his colleagues,” Nathan Sheets told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday, referring to the Fed chairman.
“Their narrative is that as the year progresses, we should see inflation start to abate and to come on down. And there was not even a hint of that in the January data,” he added.
The monthly CPI rates also came in stronger than expected. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.6%, compared to estimates for a 0.4% increase by both measures.
Even with the challenges posed by the highly contagious omicron variant, inflation still remains high, and more progress needs to be made to bring inflation down to 3% for this year, Sheets said.
“I think we’re also going to have to see an increasingly aggressive Federal Reserve. And I think that clearly after today’s inflation data, 50 basis points for March has to be on the table,” he said. Even then, he added, it may not be enough.
“What are we going to have to do through the rest of the year to wrestle inflation to the ground? Because it doesn’t seem like it’s abating on its own — at least there’s no sign of that yet,” said Sheets.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/us-inflation-data-like-a-punch-in-the-stomach-for-the-fed-citi-.html
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Assuming no new European war, inflation is likely here for longer than most people expect.
Tired of inflation? The Federal Reserve’s actions won’t provide any relief for months
Published Thu, Feb 10 2022 1:34 PM EST Updated Thu, Feb 10 2022 4:35 PM EST
Folks tired of paying higher prices for pretty much everything shouldn’t expect help anytime soon from the Federal Reserve.
Even though the central bank is about to embark on an inflation-fighting strategy, the impact won’t be felt for months or longer, economists say.
That’s because the Fed can’t order prices to go lower. All it can do is tighten up the money supply and trust that things will go well from there. The central bank does that through interest rate hikes, which are expected to start up in March and — ultimately — bring down the cost of living.
“What it will do is it will limit the persistence of price increases,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an accounting service. “The expectation that we should all have is the action the Fed takes today really won’t be apparent until the fourth quarter of this year and all of next year.”
Anticipation of Fed action comes as the latest consumer price index reading, which measures the cost of dozens of everyday goods and services, grew 7.5% over the past year in January. That’s the fastest rise since 1982, when the economy was dealing with stagflation and a double-dip recession.
More
Kellogg may raise prices again in 2022 as it sees ‘double-digit cost inflation,’ says CEO
Published Thu, Feb 10 2022 2:22 PM EST Updated Thu, Feb 10 2022 10:29 PM EST
Kellogg may raise prices and increase productivity to offset the skyrocketing inflation it’s seeing for input costs, CEO Steve Cahillane told CNBC on Thursday.
“As we enter 2022, we are still seeing double-digit cost inflation,” Cahillane said on “Squawk on the Street”
“We’re going to see the wraparound benefits of the pricing that we took in 2021 into 2022 … but our goal is to cover all of those input costs with pricing and productivity, and we think we’re in very good shape to do that.”
---- Implementing price hikes last year helped boost the company’s profits and combat the inflationary pressures it was experiencing. Cahillane said customers have been willing to pay up even with higher price tags, but Kellogg still plans to be cautious about marking up prices this year.
“We don’t want prices to get too high, but we’re in an environment where it’s broad-based, it’s across everything, but we’ve been able to cover it. Our pricing performance has been very solid,” he said.
The company’s cereal segment took a hit last quarter due to worker strikes. Cahillane said other parts of the company’s portfolio “more than made up for” cereal’s underperformance last quarter, and he expects the line to recover now that employees are back at work.
More
Stupidity is much the same all the world over.
John Stuart Mill.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
U.S. FDA authorizes Eli Lilly's COVID-19 antibody drug
February 11, 20228:32 PM GMT
Feb 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Friday authorized Eli Lilly and Co's (LLY.N) COVID-19 antibody drug for people aged 12 and older at risk of severe illness, adding a tool that has been found to work against the highly contagious Omicron variant.
The FDA authorized bebtelovimab for emergency use in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk of progression to severe disease, including hospitalization or death.
Bebtelovimab should be used when alternative COVID-19 treatment options approved or authorized by the FDA are not accessible or clinically appropriate, the agency said.
The U.S. health regulator had in January revised the emergency use authorizations for Lilly's antibody combination treatment and a rival therapy from Regeneron (REGN.O) after the drugs were found to be ineffective against the Omicron variant.
Lilly has said bebtelovimab retains activity against Omicron as well as its BA. 2 subvariant, which is said to be more transmissible.
The company on Thursday signed a supply deal with the U.S. government for up to 600,000 doses of bebtelovimab to be delivered by the end of March.
Bebtelovimab was originally discovered by AbCellera Biologics (ABCL.O) and later licensed and developed by Eli Lilly.
EU investigates reports of menstrual disorders after mRNA COVID shots
February 11, 20222:40 PM GMT
Feb 11 (Reuters) - The European Medicines Agency's safety committee said on Friday it was reviewing reports of heavy menstrual bleeding and absence of menstruation from women who had received COVID vaccines from Pfizer (PFE.N)/BioNTech (22UAy.DE)and Moderna (MRNA.O).
The assessment was in view of reports of menstrual disorders after receiving either of the two vaccines, both based on messenger RNA technology, and it was not yet clear whether there was a causal link, the agency said.
It was not yet clear whether there was a causal link between the vaccines and the reports, the agency said.
More
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Rare form of sulfur offers a key to triple-capacity EV batteries
Nick Lavars February 10, 2022
As electric vehicles continue to grow in popularity, scientists see great potential in lithium-sulfur batteries as a more environmentally friendly way to power them. This is because they don't rely on the same expensive and difficult-to-source raw materials, such as cobalt, but other problems relating to their stability has held the technology back so far. Engineers at Drexel University have made a breakthrough they say takes these batteries closer to commercial use, by leveraging a rare chemical phase of sulfur to prevent damaging chemical reactions.
Lithium-sulfur batteries hold a lot of promise when it comes to energy storage, and not just because sulfur is abundant and less problematic to source than the cobalt, manganese and nickel used in today's batteries. They may offer some significant performance gains, too, with the potential to store several times the energy of today's lithium-ion batteries. But there is one problem that scientists keep running into, which is the formation of chemical compounds called polysulfides.
As the battery operates, these make their way into the electrolyte – the solution that carries the charge back and forth between the anode and cathode – where they trigger chemical reactions that compromise the battery's capacity and lifespan. Scientists have had some success swapping out the carbonate electrolyte for an ether electrolyte, which doesn't react with the polysulfides. But this poses other problems, as the ether electrolyte itself is highly volatile and contains components with low boiling points, meaning the battery could quickly fail or meltdown if warmed above room temperature.
The chemical engineers at Drexel University have been working on another solution and it starts with the design of a new cathode, which can work with the carbonate electrolytes already in commercial use. This cathode is made from carbon nanofibers and had already been shown to slow the movement of polysulfides in an ether electrolyte. But making it work with a carbonate electrolyte involved some experimentation.
“Having a cathode that works with the carbonate electrolyte that they’re already using is the path of least resistance for commercial manufacturers,” said lead researcher Vibha Kalra. “So rather than pushing for the industry adoption of a new electrolyte, our goal was to make a cathode that could work in the pre-existing Li-ion electrolyte system.”
More
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
This weekend’s musical diversion. Hamburg’s G.P. Telemann again. Approx. 11 minutes.
G.Ph. Telemann: Ouverture-Suite in D major, I: Ouverture, TWV 55:D1 (Musique de table/Tafelmusik)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbLYcAu7BNA
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 13 minutes.
Brilliant Execution! || Vidit vs Dubov || Berlin FIDE Grand Prix (2022)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTae7g9p8e8
This weekend’s maths update. Approx. 12 minutes.
How many chess games are possible?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Km024eldY1A
Finally, an added bonus this weekend. I have seen the “total monstrosity,” that replaced it and it is an ugly monstrosity. Approx. 19 minutes.
New York’s LOST Skyscraper - The Rise and Fall of SINGER TOWER - IT'S HISTORY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0R8cRpdbR0
A person should be free to do as he likes in his own concerns; but he ought not to be free to do as he likes in acting for another, under the pretext that the affairs of the other are his own affairs.
John Stuart Mill.
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