Baltic Dry Index. 1964 +78 Brent Crude 93.27
Spot Gold 1892
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 21/02/22 World 425,074,130
Deaths 5,906,501
Particularly when it comes to Russia, it’s hard not to believe that there isn’t “a game within a game within a game within a game,” said the former CIA official.
In the forever Russian invasion of Ukraine that just never happens, [so far,] diplomacy is back on again, thanks mostly to the tireless marathon efforts of French President Macron.
If he pulls off stopping a new European war, Macron for the next Nobel Peace Prize?
In the casinos, no one seems to know how best to position for war or peace. All the time, one day at a time, the Fed’s March interest rates D-day gets closer.
Will the Fed finally tackle soaring inflation or not? No one really knows, probably including dithering Fed Chairman Powell himself.
Stop buying bonds and mortgage securities and start raising interest rates, pretty much bakes in stagflation for later in the year and next year, sinking the Democrats in the November mid-term elections.
Do nothing, or almost next to nothing on runaway US inflation, bakes in double digit inflation for all but America’s billionaire class, probably burying the Democrats in a landslide in those same November elections.
In the Fed, if not the White House, some are probably hoping for a [small] quick European, [or anywhere,] war.
Asia stocks mixed as investors continue watching Ukraine crisis; China holds steady on benchmark lending rate
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Monday trade, as investors continued to watch the situation surrounding Ukraine. Meanwhile, China left a benchmark lending rate unchanged.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 2% momentarily in morning trade before retracing some of those losses, last declining 0.85% in the afternoon while the Topix index shed 0.82%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.45%.
In mainland China, the Shanghai composite dipped 0.36% while the Shenzhen component slipped 0.256%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 0.71%.
China on Monday held steady on a benchmark lending rate, with the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) kept unchanged at 3.7%. That was in line with predictions from all 24 financial institutions in a snap Reuters poll.
The five-year LPR was also kept unchanged at 4.6%.
Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.24%. The Straits Times index in Singapore also advanced 0.19%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.42% lower.
Investor sentiment in the region may have improved after U.S. President Joe Biden accepted “in principle” a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin if Moscow has not invaded Ukraine.
Concerns of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine have kept investors on edge, with Biden saying Friday the U.S. believes Putin has decided to carry out an attack on Ukraine “in the coming days.”
Markets in the U.S. are closed on Monday for a holiday.
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Biden agrees to meet with Putin ‘in principle’ if Russia has not invaded Ukraine
President Joe Biden has accepted “in principle” a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in what could represent a last-ditch effort at diplomacy over tensions surrounding Ukraine and a possible avenue to avert a looming invasion directed by Moscow.
Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Sunday evening that the summit between the two world leaders would happen following a meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. That meeting is scheduled for later this week.
Psaki noted that the agreement is conditioned on Moscow holding off on an invasion.
News of a possible one-on-one between Biden and Putin comes as the White House warns that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could come at any time. Moscow has for weeks built up its military force on its ex-Soviet neighbor’s northern and eastern borders, with recent totals putting Russia’s force at about 190,000.
The threat of an assault by Russia has kept global markets on edge for much of the last several weeks, with oil prices climbing and equities volatile.
The broad S&P 500, which tracks the equity performance of the largest U.S. companies, is down 3.69% in February, while the Nasdaq Composite has shed 4.8%. West Texas crude oil futures have gained 4.2% over the past month.
The potential for imminent conflict forced Biden earlier on Sunday to scrap plans to return to his home in Delaware following a two-hour meeting with his national security team.
The rare Sunday National Security Council meeting began around noon and lasted a little over two hours, according to reporters who watched the attendees arrive and then depart the White House compound. The abrupt cancellation to the president’s holiday-weekend plans carries heightened meaning in recent days given the administration’s belief in a looming Russian offensive.
Biden spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, who’s emerged as a crucial diplomat between the U.S. and Russia over the course of the frenzied weekend. Macron’s office said that, this weekend alone, the French president spoke with Biden, Putin, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Moscow has to date insisted it has no plans to invade Ukraine and said its forces in Belarus are there to conduct military drills over the next week.
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Latest satellite images show shift in Russian military activity near Ukraine
New satellite images by Maxar Technologies collected over the weekend show an apparent shift in Russia's military deployment around Ukraine as officials continue to warn about an impending invasion, according to The New York Times.
Some smaller deployments are now visible with several units shown to be on training grounds or outside of bases.
Most of the locations are in Russia's Belgorod area, which is 25 miles from Ukraine's boarder in western Russia. Images also showed a helicopter landing site being established in the last two weeks.
Analysis by Maxar cited by the Times indicate that units and equipment at a military garrison near Valuyki have left.
Other footage, including a Tik Tok video detailed Russian military deployment less than five miles near the Ukrainian border, according to The Times.
The latest satellite imagery analysis come after Russian troops have numbered up to 190,000 in Russia and Belarus, with the number growing in recent weeks.
The U.S. and other western governments have pressured for diplomatic solutions while threatening sanctions against Russia if it opts to further invade Ukraine.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/latest-satellite-images-show-shift-033707776.html
Much of what had been obtained by U.S. intelligence on the false flag operations attempting to justify an invasion could have been purposely planted by Russia to be picked up by U.S. spying efforts, according to Dan Hoffman, the former CIA chief of station in Moscow.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Bring back "Disney dollars?" At least they held their value. Maybe use them beyond Disney.
Walt Disney World increases prices for multiday and Park Hopper tickets
Published Fri, Feb 18 2022 1:06 PM EST Updated Fri, Feb 18 2022 3:07 PM EST
Walt Disney World Resort is raising ticket prices for guests visiting the parks for multiple days. This is the first major adjustment to the Orlando, Florida-based theme parks’ ticket pricing since March 2019.
Prices for base tickets for those attending any of Disney’s four theme parks in Florida for between one and three days have not been altered, according to WDW News Today, a prominent Disney theme park media site. But prices of multiday passes for between four and 10 days are up between 2% and 6%.
For example, four-day multiday passes used to range between $435 and $597, depending on if the ticket was for a child or an adult. Now, those passes cost between $447 and $597
Park Hopper passes for one to two days have not changed, but a similar price increase has been added to these tickets for three- to 10-day spans. These passes allow visitors to move between the theme parks in the same day.
A four-day Park Hopper pass now costs between $540 and $687, up from between $525 and $687.
Representatives from Disney did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Soaring lumber price adds nearly $19,000 to the cost of a new home
Published Tue, Feb 15 2022 12:50 PM EST Updated Tue, Feb 15 2022 6:00 PM EST
The price of lumber has been on a roller coaster since the start of the pandemic, and it’s climbing a big hill yet again.
After falling back sharply from a record high in May of last year, lumber prices began climbing again in December. They are now about 22% lower than that peak, but still about three times their average pre-pandemic price, according to Random Lengths.
That is adding to the cost of both building a new home and remodeling an older one. The National Association of Home Builders estimated the recent price jump added more than $18,600 to the price of a newly built home. It also added nearly $7,300 to the cost of the average new multifamily home, which translates into households paying $67 a month more to rent a new apartment.
NAHB calculated these average home price increases based on the softwood lumber that goes into the average new home, as captured in the Builder Practices Survey conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs.
“With a historically low level of overall housing inventory and solid demand due to low mortgage interest rates and favorable demographics, new construction has been unable to add additional needed supply to the market, resulting in unsustainable gains for home prices,” wrote David Logan, director of tax and trade analysis at NAHB.
There are several reasons behind the inflation, but it’s mostly that sawmills can’t keep up with demand
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Fed's hopes for low inflation and lots of jobs may fall flat, economists say
Fri, February 18, 2022, 3:19 PM
New York (Reuters) -When the Federal Reserve tacked to a new brand of monetary policy 18 months ago it thought it could deliver low unemployment and tame inflation.
It may end up with neither, five top bank and academic economists wrote in a critique released on Friday.
Their paper envisions a scenario in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are unable to control rising prices and forced to raise interest rates so high the economy slows and unemployment rises, hurting the very people they aimed to help.
"Avoiding downturns is as important as any gains" that workers might enjoy during a "hot economy", one of the authors, Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Peter Hooper said at a symposium where the paper was presented.
It was released at a time of flux in Fed policy, with the Fed expected to begin raising interest rates in March in response to high inflation, but still debating how aggressive it may need to be.
One Fed official responding to the paper said it was still likely inflation will ease over time without putting the recovery at risk.
----But others were skeptical that the new approach, dubbed the "Powell paradigm" by the writers, would work in its approach of using looser policy and allowing slightly higher inflation to encourage stronger employment.
The perceived benefits were valid, the authors found, with periods of low unemployment helping narrow the persistent gaps between, for example, white, Black and Hispanic workers, and between those with more education versus those with less.
But the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy responses to it have now "upended some of the premises" on which the new approach rested and left the Fed facing inflation not seen since the 1980s, wrote Hooper, Morgan Stanley's Seth Carpenter, Bank of America's Ethan Harris, University of Chicago professor Anil Kashyap, and University of Wisconsin professor Kenneth D. West.
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Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Today, normality returns nearly everywhere just don’t tell anyone in Trudeau’s Stalinist Ottawa.
'Welcome back world!': Australia fully reopens borders after two years
By Renju Jose February 21, 2022 4:32 AM GMT
SYDNEY, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Australia on Monday fully reopened its international borders to travellers vaccinated against the coronavirus after nearly two years of pandemic-related closings as tourists returned and hundreds of people were reunited with family and friends.
More than 50 international flights will reach the country through the day, including 27 touching down in Sydney, its largest city, as the tourism and hospitality sectors look to rebuild after getting hammered by COVID-19 restrictions.
"It is a very exciting day, one that I have been looking forward to for a long time, from the day that I first shut that border right at the start of the pandemic," Prime Minister Scott Morrison told reporters in the island state of Tasmania, which relies heavily on tourism.
After being away from loved ones for months there were many emotional reunions, including for Cindy Moss who travelled from the U.S. state of Kentucky to see her daughter.
"I just haven't seen her in so long and it was such a big thing to be able to get over here. So I'm so excited," she said after hugging her daughter, her voice cracking with emotion.
Tourism is one of Australia's biggest industries, worth more than A$60 billion ($43 billion) and employing about 5% of the country's workforce. But the sector was crippled after the country shut its borders in March 2020.
Once a champion of COVID-suppression strategy, Australia shifted away from its fortress-style controls and relentless lockdowns since late last year and began living with the virus after reaching higher vaccination levels. Skilled migrants, international students and backpackers have been allowed to fly into Australia since November in a staggered reopening exercise.
"IT'S A PARTY OUT HERE"
Passengers flying to Sydney were greeted from the air with "Welcome Back World!" painted on a sign near the runways while people in kangaroo costumes welcomed travellers and a DJ played music from a van festooned with a banner saying "You were worth the wait".
"It is a party out here, music playing, smiles on people's faces, they will be dancing soon, I'm sure," Tourism Minister Dan Tehan told broadcaster ABC from Sydney airport as he gave travellers gift jars of Vegemite, an iconic Australian food spread, and stuffed koala toys.
Tehan said he was hopeful for a "very strong" rebound in the tourism market, with Qantas (QAN.AX) looking to fly more than 14,000 passengers into Australia this week. Virgin Australia said it was seeing positive trends in domestic bookings and continued to assess demand for international flights.
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UK to scrap all remaining COVID restrictions next week
LONDON (AP) — The British government confirmed Saturday that people with COVID-19 won’t be legally required to self-isolate starting next week, as part of a plan for “living with COVID” that is also likely to see testing for the coronavirus scaled back.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said ending all of the legal restrictions brought in to curb the spread of the virus will let people in the U.K. “protect ourselves without restricting our freedoms.”
But some of the government’s scientific advisers said it was a risky move that could bring a surge in infections and weaken the country’s defenses against more virulent future strains.
Johnson’s Conservative government lifted most virus restrictions in January, scrapping vaccine passports for venues and ending mask mandates in most settings apart from hospitals in England. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also have opened up, although more slowly.
A combination of high vaccination rates in the U.K. and the milder omicron variant means easing restrictions didn’t lead to a surge in hospitalizations and deaths. Both are falling, though the U.K. still has Europe’s highest coronavirus toll after Russia, with more than 160,000 recorded deaths.
In Britain, 85% of people age 12 and up have had two vaccine doses and almost two-thirds have had a third booster shot.
Now the Conservative government says it will remove “all remaining domestic COVID regulations that restrict public freedoms” as part of a “move away from government intervention to personal responsibility.”
The legal requirement to isolate for at least five days after a positive COVID-19 test will be replaced with advisory measures, and the coronavirus will be treated more like the flu as it becomes endemic.
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Carnival Cruise Line to ease mask mandate for guests from March 1
Sat, February 19, 2022, 1:58 AM
Reuters) - Carnival Cruise Line plans to make masks optional for its guests from March 1 after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) eased its warnings for cruise ships, the company said in a statement late on Friday.
The company said masks would be recommended but not required.
"There may, however, be certain venues and events where masks will be required," Carnival said in the statement.
Carnival also said it plans to be offer more flexibility in pre-cruise testing requirements.
The cruise line, operated by Carnival Corp, said children under 5 will be allowed to sail without any need for vaccine or exemption.
The easing of the mask mandate follows similar action from cruise operator Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd and theme park Disney World.
The U.S. CDC eased its warnings for cruise ships by a notch from the highest level two days earlier in response to a decline in onboard COVID-19 cases.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/carnival-cruise-line-ease-mask-015821088.html
How Vitamin D Affects Omicron Symptoms, According to New Research and Expert Analysis
Sun, February 20, 2022, 1:00 PM
Vitamin D's role in the prevention of the spread of COVID-19 has been long contested by many experts since the pandemic began, fueled by early chatter of alternative treatment methods back in 2020. But a new piece of research has once again reignited the public's interest in these supplements, as scientists highlight a possible association between vitamin D levels and the immune system's ability to fend off severe COVID-19 symptoms, particularly associated with the Omicron variant.
The small-scale study, which was organized by researchers in Israel and is based on data collected between April 2020 and February 2021, was recently published in PLOS ONE and presents a case that researchers say is "equally relevant" for Omicron spread as well.
The data was collected from 253 people who were admitted to hospitals for treatment (at a time before vaccines were available) and was used to conclude that those who had a vitamin D deficiency were more likely to develop a severe or critical case of COVID-19, as compared to patients who had sufficient vitamin D levels within blood samples taken at the time of hospitalization. About half of those in the study were deficient in the vitamin.
Further links found within the new study suggest that those who were lacking vitamin D were 14 times more likely to experience severe COVID-19 complications, which the National Institutes of Health (NIH) define as someone likely needing a respirator to breathe — and in severe cases, those who experience respiratory failure, septic shock or multiple organ dysfunction. Those with a vitamin D deficiency were significantly more likely to die due to infections, the study found; 25.6% mortality rate versus just 2.3% for those who weren't lacking vitamin D.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/vitamin-d-affects-omicron-symptoms-130000327.html
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene and an intense laser open the door to the extreme
Date: February 16, 2022
Source: Osaka University
Summary: A research team has developed a large-area suspended graphene and irradiated the thinnest graphene target with an ultra-intense laser to realize high-energy ion acceleration. Their findings will be applied to the development of compact, efficient ion accelerators used for cancer treatment, nuclear fusion and so on.
Laser-driven ion acceleration has been studied to develop a compact and efficient plasma-based accelerator, which is applicable to cancer therapy, nuclear fusion, and high energy physics. Osaka University researchers, in collaboration with researchers at National Institutes for Quantum Science and Technology (QST), Kobe University, and National Central University in Taiwan, have reported direct energetic ion acceleration by irradiating the world's thinnest and strongest graphene target with the ultra-intense J-KAREN laser at Kansai Photon Science Institute, QST in Japan. Their findings are published in Springer Nature, Scientific Reports.
It is known that a thinner target is required for higher ion energy in laser ion acceleration theory. However, it has been difficult to directly accelerate ions with an extremely thin target regime since the noise components of an intense laser destroy the targets before the main peak of the laser pulse. It is necessary to use plasma mirrors, which remove the noise components, to realize efficient ion acceleration with an intense laser.
Thus, the researchers have developed large-area suspended graphene (LSG) as a target of laser ion acceleration. Graphene is known as the world's thinnest and strongest 2D material, which is suitable for laser-driven ion sources.
---- "The outcomes of this research are applicable to the development of compact and efficient laser-driven ion accelerators for cancer therapy, laser nuclear fusion, high energy physics, and laboratory astrophysics," study lead author Yasuhiro Kuramitsu explains. "Direct acceleration of energetic ions without a plasma mirror evidently shows the robustness of LSG. We will use the atomic-thin LSG as a target mount to accelerate other materials which cannot stand by themselves. We also show the energetic ion acceleration at non-relativistic intensity. This will allow us to investigate laser ion acceleration with relatively small laser facilities. Furthermore, even without a plasma mirror at the extremely thin target regime, energetic ion acceleration is realized. This opens up a new regime of laser driven ion acceleration."
The Biden’s administration’s strategy of releasing intelligence is a “double-edged sword, and it has not demonstrated that it has changed Putin’s calculus,” said Hoffman. “Putin is a KGB guy, so he might be feeding us disinformation.”
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