Baltic Dry Index. 2076 -111 Brent Crude 97.93
Spot Gold 1889
“Trade only when the market is clearly bullish or bearish.”
Jesse Lauriston Livermore.
“No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.”
Jesse Lauriston Livermore.
Stocks rally, oil dips as investors digest sanctions on Russia
February 25, 2022 10:35 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Stocks around the world rebounded on Friday, the U.S. dollar fell and oil prices dipped as investors welcomed talk of renewed diplomacy after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and as coordinated Western sanctions left Russia's energy sector largely untouched.
On Thursday, worries about the invasion lifted oil prices past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014.
Wall Street's indexes extended the previous session's rally with Nasdaq and the S&P 500 registering gains for the week.
The MSCI World Index (.MIWD00000PUS) closed up 2.43%; for the week it was down 0.7%.
Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Ukraine's military to overthrow its political leaders and negotiate peace. Authorities in Kyiv called on citizens to help defend the capital. read more
EU countries agreed to freeze European assets of Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and the White House announced plans for U.S. sanctions. read more Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pleaded for faster and more forceful sanctions.
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China respects Ukraine's sovereignty and Russia's security concerns, and it welcomes direct Russia, Ukraine dialogue as soon as possible. [nL1N2V02LS]
Russia said it was ready to send a delegation for talks with Ukraine, but U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price called this an attempt to conduct diplomacy "at the barrel of a gun," read more
"Markets went through a progression. They heard the word invasion Wednesday night and started selling. Then markets heard the word sanctions Thursday and started buying. Then they heard the word diplomacy on Friday and kept buying," said John Augustine, chief investment officer at Huntington National Bank in Columbus, Ohio.
Some investors remained wary of riskier assets, weeks before the Federal Reserve is expected to raise U.S. interest rates.
"The market is purely looking at the short run, saying that what they feared has happened so there's nothing else to fear on the invasion of Ukraine ... that's being pretty shortsighted," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance in Charlotte, North Carolina.
More
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-02-25/
With the stock market’s snapback, the focus shifts to Powell testimony and jobs report
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress in the week ahead, and markets will hang on what he says regarding how the Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect Fed policy.
Powell will deliver his testimony on the economy to the House Committee on Financial Services on Wednesday morning, and then again to the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The important February employment report is to be released on Friday.
“Powell speaking is going to be important. Everybody’s trying to get a gauge of how he’s seeing what the Fed’s policy reaction might be in light of recent events,” said Jim Caron, head of macro strategies for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Investors also are keeping a careful eye on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its related impact on markets, with Russia being a major commodity exporter. Oil initially shot higher in the past week, with Brent crude surging to $105 per barrel before settling back down to about $98 on Friday.
“I think Powell’s going to have to still be pretty hawkish, even though there’s still concerns about what oil prices are going to do to demand. The surge in oil prices is coming at the worst possible time,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.” It’s stoking a well-kindled fire of inflation.”
The S&P 500 posted a weekly gain after some wild swings. Stocks fell sharply Thursday on news of the invasion, but later bounced. The index extended that rebound into Friday, rising more than 2%. Bond yields, initially lower in a flight-to-safety trade, reversed course and were higher Friday.
“Treasurys are supposed to be the flight-to-safety asset, and you didn’t make money in Treasurys when you had a geopolitical event,” Caron said. Yields move inversely to prices, and the 10-year yield was back near 2% on Friday. “There’s no place to run, no place to hide. I think a lot of that has to do with peoples’ expectations for interest rate policy and also inflation.”
----“The fact they specifically excluded energy and agriculture [in the new sanctions] means the spillover effects to the global economy are very limited,” Kleintop said. “It doesn’t change some of the trends that were in place prior to the invasion, which of course is the tightening of financial conditions and concerns about inflation.”
Goldman Sachs economists said the impact on global gross domestic product will likely be small, since both Russia and Ukraine together account for just about 2% of global market-based GDP.
“In contrast, spillovers via commodity markets (Russia produces 11% and 17% of global oil and gas) and financial conditions could be somewhat larger,” the economists noted.
Fed rate hikes
Schwab’s Kleintop said he expects the stock market to remain volatile into the Fed’s first rate hike, expected at its March meeting.
More
In unnecessary European war news, America says Russia’s Ukraine invasion has stalled from its objectives.
Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania report thousands of refugees are arriving on day two.
Fighting continues across much of Ukraine itself, with fighting reported this morning in the capital Kiev.
Both sides seem to be exploring talks to bring an end to the war.
Of course, much of this is probably self serving spin, misinformation, disinformation or even propaganda, though the part about talks seems to be genuine even if the US appears to be discouraging them.
Ukraine invasion: What to know as Russian forces target Kyiv
NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) — After a barrage of airstrikes on cities and military bases around the country, Russian forces were closing in on Ukraine’s capital on Saturday. The city warned of street fighting and urged residents to stay inside and take cover.
With growing signs that Russia aims to overthrow him, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Ukrainians to “stand firm,” saying the “fate of Ukraine is being decided right now.”
He refused American help to evacuate, according to a senior U.S. intelligence official, who quoted him saying that he needed anti-tank ammunition but “not a ride.”
The assault, anticipated for weeks by the West, amounts to Europe’s largest ground conflict since World War II as President Vladimir Putin tries to restore Moscow’s Cold War influence.
It is unclear how much or little Russian forces have seized or the extent of the casualties. Ukraine shot down two Russian transport planes, at least one with paratroopers on board.
U.S. defense officials believe the Russian offensive has encountered considerable resistance and is proceeding slower than Moscow had envisioned, though that could change quickly.
----Here are the things to know about the conflict and the security crisis in former Soviet-dominated Eastern Europe:
RUSSIAN TROOPS MARCH ON
Kyiv officials are warning residents that street fighting is underway against Russian forces. They advised residents to remain in shelters or if home to avoid going near windows or on balconies, and to take precautions against being hit by debris or bullets.
The Ukrainian military said a battle was underway near a military unit to the west of the city center. Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko said new explosions shook the area near a major power plant that the Russians were trying to attack.
The Russian military said Friday it had encircled the cities of Sumy and Konotop in northeastern Ukraine, but was “taking steps to ensure civilians’ safety.”
Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Russian forces have so far knocked out 211 Ukrainian military installations, including 17 command centers, 19 air defense missile systems, 39 radar units, 67 tanks and six warplanes. The Russian military also said it seized a strategic airport outside Kyiv, allowing it to quickly build up forces to take the capital.
Late Friday, the Russian military said it has taken over Melitopol, a city near the Azov Sea. The claim could not immediately be independently verified.
More
Ukraine and Russia are discussing place and time for talks -Zelenskiy's spokesman
February 25, 2022 10:00 PM GMT
Feb 26 (Reuters) - Ukraine and Russia are discussing a place and time for talks, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's spokesman said on social media on Friday.
"Ukraine was and remains ready to talk about a ceasefire and peace," spokesman Sergii Nykyforov added.
Kremlin notes Kyiv's willingness to talk, won't comment on possible contacts
Fri, February 25, 2022, 10:25 AM
MOSCOW (Reuters) -The Kremlin on Friday noted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's willingness to discuss a possible neutrality pledge by Ukraine, but said it could not say anything about possible talks between the two countries' leaders.
"This is a new statement. We have taken note of it. It looks like a positive development," he said, referring to comments made by Zelenskiy in the early hours of Thursday.
Peskov said he could not comment on whether talks would take place between Putin and Zelenskiy.
Saying that Moscow would analyse Zelenskiy's offer, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that Moscow's expectations of Kyiv remained unchanged. Moscow has long demanded guarantees that Ukraine would never join NATO or allow the bloc to deploy troops and weapons on its territory.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-notes-kyivs-willingness-talk-102515363.html
Why war in Ukraine means the end of the liberal world order
Fri, February 25, 2022, 5:58 AM
On the afternoon of Aug. 5, 1990, President George H.W. Bush appeared at a press conference on the South Lawn of the White House. After reviewing developments related to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, Bush took questions from reporters. The last elicited the most memorable words of the crisis, and perhaps of Bush's whole presidency. "This will not stand," Bush insisted, "this aggression against Kuwait."
Bush's awkward grammar and delivery made the remark an object of satire, most famously in the Coen Brothers film The Big Lebowski. It was memorable, though, less because it was funny than because Bush's words expressed a particular vision of international politics. Born in the wake of the Second World War but made plausible by the collapse of Soviet power, that vision promised an American-led world in which states would fight only in defense of recognized territorial boundaries, limiting their rivalries to economics, sports, and culture. In his address to a joint session of Congress in September, Bush would describe that vision as a "new world order".
---- espite the apparent success of the First Persian Gulf War, the new world order never lived up to its billing. Within just a few years, a series of wars in the former Yugoslavia demonstrated that the ghosts of Europe could not so easily be exorcised. Elsewhere in the world, ethnic, ideological, and religious clashes continued with little relief. Sept. 11 reminded us that we were not immune to those tensions. The wars of occupation that followed raised justified doubts about whether our leadership possessed the competence or wisdom to meet the grandiose standards that they set for themselves. By the 2010s, the revival of great power competition with China was conventional wisdom. And the election of Donald Trump raised serious questions about whether the American public was willing to continue paying the economic, military, and political costs of liberal hegemony.
----Still, the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on this week is different to these previous crises. Rather than a distressing violation of the post-Cold War norm, it feels like a decisive end to the era that Bush proclaimed on the White House Lawn.
But there are at least three reasons to think something fundamental has changed — with consequences we still can't foresee.
First, the Russian attack is a paradigmatic case of interstate aggression, a form of warfare that was supposed to be relegated to the history books. As the very partial list above indicates, the last 30 years have not exactly been a paradise of peace. But there have been relatively few direct military clashes between internationally recognized sovereign states. Instead, much of the violence has been associated with civil wars, failed states, and non-state actors, albeit often proxies for neighbors or more distant states.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-war-ukraine-means-end-055810525.html
Finally, more bad news for Ukraine, although I think they knew this before making the request.
Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing Black Sea, says foreign minister
Fri, February 25, 2022, 10:28 AM
ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing the Black Sea via its straits, as Ukraine has requested, due to a clause in an international pact that allows vessels to return to their home base, the Turkish foreign minister said on Friday.
Ukraine has appealed to Turkey to block Russian warships from passing through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits which lead to the Black Sea, after Moscow on Thursday launched a full-blown assault on Ukraine from land, air and sea.
Russian forces landed at Ukraine's Black and Azov Sea ports as part of the invasion.
nder the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the straits and can limit the passage of warships during wartime or if threatened, but the request has put the NATO member in a difficult position as it tries to manage its Western commitments and close ties with Russia.
Speaking in Kazakhstan, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Turkey was studying Kyiv's request but said Russia had the right under the Convention to return ships to their home base, in this case the Black Sea.
So even if Turkey decided after a legal process to accept Ukraine's request and close the straits to Russian warships, he said, they would only be prevented from travelling in the other direction, away from their home base into the Mediterranean.
"If countries involved in the war make a request to return their vessels to their bases, that needs to be allowed," the Hurriyet daily quoted Cavusoglu as saying.
TURKEY'S BALANCING ACT
Cavusoglu added that Turkish legal experts were still trying to determine whether the conflict in Ukraine could be defined as a war, which would allow the convention mandates to be invoked.
Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, said on Friday Kyiv was expecting a "positive response" from Ankara to its request.
Cavusoglu also reiterated Ankara's opposition to imposing economic sanctions against Russia, a stance that has set Turkey apart from most of its NATO allies which have already announced such measures.
Turkey has cultivated good ties with both Russia and Ukraine. It has said the Russian attack is unacceptable and that it supports Ukraine's territorial integrity but has avoided using words such as "invasion" to describe what is happening.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkey-cannot-stop-russian-warships-102841759.html
The ability to compromise is not a diplomatic politeness toward a partner but rather taking into account and respecting your partner's legitimate interests.
Vladimir Putin.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fed warns of wage pressures as data shows inflation still rising
Fri, February 25, 2022, 4:31 PM By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation rose again in January and a new report from the central bank warned that price pressures could persist unless a shortage of available workers begins to ease.
The new inflation data, alongside the developing sense at the central bank that inflation may prove harder than anticipated to dislodge, will likely firm the central bank's intent to raise interest rates through the year, beginning with an initial hike in March from the current near zero level.
Policymakers will have to weigh one fresh and unanticipated set of risks in their discussion: The Russian military invasion of Ukraine could roil the economic outlook in unpredictable ways, and potentially undermine global growth and financial markets.
But Fed officials say that's unlikely to shift their immediate plans to begin tightening monetary policy in response to inflation that is not only high but continues moving higher.
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose at a 6.1% annual rate through January, its highest since 1982 and more than triple the 2% inflation rate the Fed has set as its target for the U.S. economy.
That measure of annual inflation, reported monthly by the government, has been as higher or higher than in the prior month for 14 straight months - a run not seen since the 1970s and a blow to arguments commonly heard at the Fed last year https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/zdpxoqkrkvx/index.html that rising prices would prove "transitory" and disappear as the economy reopened.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/another-jump-inflation-firms-fed-163148364.html
Aggressive rate hikes are 'off the table' as Russia's war on Ukraine means the Fed will have to tolerate higher inflation, Mohamed El-Erian says
Thu, February 24, 2022, 4:06 PM
op economist Mohamed El-Erian said the Federal Reserve won't be able to tighten monetary policy as aggressively now that Russia has invaded Ukraine.
Many on Wall Street expected several Fed rate hikes in 2022, starting with an increase of 50 basis points next month. Earlier this week, JPMorgan even predicted nine interest rate hikes this year of 25 basis points each time.
"This takes 50 basis points completely off the table," El-Erian told CNBC Thursday morning. "It takes the 8, 9 hikes a lot of people were talking about for this year off the table, and thankfully so... I didn't think the US economy could accommodate and live with such slamming of the brakes of monetary policy."
The geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe has already rattled global equities and, given Russia's position as one of the largest producers of energy, crude oil has skyrocketed. Higher fuel prices will add more inflationary pressure, which the Fed seeks to tamp down as consumer prices have seen annual growth of more than 7%.
But fewer rate hikes means the Fed will be stuck in a "very unsatisfactory situation" when it comes to growth and inflation, El-Erian said.
"The Fed is going to have to be even more careful, and it's going to have to tolerate higher inflation," he warned.
When asked whether reining in high inflation requires putting the economy into a recession, El-Erian said that has been the case historically as Fed policymakers are forced to tighten sharply.
But the geopolitical shock of the Russia-Ukraine war puts that playbook into question, he said, estimating that the odds are "pretty even" on whether the central bank slams on the brakes or instead chooses to deal with higher inflation down the road.
"This is the situation everyone was afraid of," he said. "That by being late, you have fewer policy options."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/aggressive-rate-hikes-off-table-160613825.html
Fed should lift rates a full percentage point by mid-year -Waller
Fri, February 25, 2022, 1:29 AM By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday laid out the case for a "concerted" effort to rein in inflation, calling for raising interest rates a full percentage point by mid-year, starting with a half-percentage-point hike in March if data in coming weeks continues to point to an "exceedingly hot" economy.
"I believe appropriate interest rate policy brings the target range up to 1 to 1.25 percent early in the summer," Waller said at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Economic Forecast Project. The Fed should also start trimming its $9 trillion balance sheet "no later than" its July meeting, he said.
Once initial rate hikes are made, further increases would be in order if inflation stayed high, Waller said, or could slow or pause if inflation moderates in the second half as he expects.
----But, he said, it is still far too early to read the impact of the conflict on the U.S. or world economy. And with consumer prices rising the fastest in 40 years, the Fed "must respond decisively to the data so as to maintain our credibility that we will bring down inflation."
Over the past week or so, Fed policymakers largely signaled a preference for beginning the coming round of U.S. interest rate hikes with a modest quarter-point hike, and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine traders slashed bets on a bigger March hike.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fed-raise-rates-full-percentage-012947896.html
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
It's alarming that military intervention in internal conflicts in foreign countries has become commonplace for the United States.
Vladimir Putin.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Mainland China posts highest number of imported COVID cases in nearly 2 years
Fri, February 25, 2022, 3:40 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) -China on Friday reported the highest daily count of COVID-19 cases arriving from outside the mainland in nearly two years, with infections mostly from Hong Kong as the financial hub grapples with a wave of infections.
The mainland detected a total of 142 imported cases with confirmed symptoms for Thursday, the National Health Commission (NHC) said on Friday.
That marks the highest imported caseload since the authority began classifying domestically transmitted cases and infected travellers from outside the mainland separately, in March 2020.
More than 100 imported cases came from Hong Kong, with 47 reported in the southern city of Shenzhen and 51 in the eastern municipality of Shanghai, local health authorities' bulletins showed. The capital Beijing also detected seven symptomatic cases arriving from Hong Kong.
Dozens of truck drivers who travel between Shenzhen and Hong Kong tested positive for the virus this month, data from the Shenzhen authority showed.
Shenzhen, which has suspended or terminated quarantine exemptions for 882 cross-border drivers who violated virus control rules, said it would have patrol and video cameras in place to prevent breaches by drivers.
Mainland China requires most general travellers arriving from outside to be quarantined for at least 14 days, and cities have varying requirements afterwards before they can travel freely.
For Thursday, the mainland also detected 87 asymptomatic carriers arriving from outside, which authorities count separately.
There were also 82 locally transmitted infections with confirmed symptoms on Thursday, the NHC data showed.
No new deaths were reported, leaving the death toll at 4,636.
As of Feb. 24, mainland China had reported a total of 108,604 cases with confirmed symptoms, including both local and imported ones.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mainland-china-posts-highest-number-034021875.html
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
No update this weekend given everything else going on!
The task of the government is not only to pour honey into a cup, but sometimes to give bitter medicine.
Vladimir Putin.
This weekend’s musical diversion. That Venetian paper merchant again. Approx. 10 minutes.
Tomaso Albinoni - Concerto for two oboes in C major, op. 9, No. 9 - The King's Consort
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzI-CXNKNwY
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 12 minutes.
Youngest Ever Player To Defeat Magnus Carlsen!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIqppHlG-Fw
This weekend’s maths update. Approx. 17 minutes.
Want to PASS Algebra? You better know this formula
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox8a3vMtM-Q
Sudoku for beginners. Approx. 8 minutes.
How to Play Sudoku for Absolute Beginners
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvU9_MVAiE0
Russia will not soon become, if it ever becomes, a second copy of the United States or England - where liberal values have deep historic roots.
Vladimir Putin.
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