Baltic Dry Index. 1968 -18 Brent Crude 93.18
Spot Gold 1853
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 16/02/22 World 416,057,035
Deaths 5,857,018
Every one is degraded, whether aware of it or not, when other people, without consulting him, take upon themselves unlimited power to regulate his destiny.
John Stuart Mill
A new European war is averted for now. Faced with the mass choirs of Ukraine assembling “in unison” today at 10 am to sing the national anthem, Russia blinked and is pulling back some troops so they say. The casinos rejoiced pushing stocks higher, but causing a pullback in the gold, crude oil and natural gas prices.
Who knew singing the Ukrainian national anthem could be so terrifying?
Even Trudeau’s bizarre marshal law Canada got break, with an easing of some Covid-19 mandates. So, will Ottawa’s “misogynist, racist, terrorist” truckers now finally drive home or will Trudeau have to dress up as a Trucker in a sign of good faith?
With everything returning to the “new normal,” the stock casinos went back to guessing on what Chairman Powell’s Fedsters will do next month, now that US inflation has proved to be anything but “transitory” as Chairman Powell Pontificated all last year.
Below, how the casinos reacted to a return to “the new normal.”
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumps 2% as Asia stocks rise; China’s January inflation slows more than expected
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific rose in Wednesday trade, as tensions appeared to ease between Russia and Ukraine, boosting markets. Meanwhile, investors reacted to weaker-than-expected Chinese inflation data.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.06% in afternoon trade, leading gains among the region’s major markets, while the Topix index gained 1.56%.
In mainland China, the Shanghai composite rose 0.69% while the Shenzhen component climbed 0.558%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 1.27%.
China’s consumer price index for January rose 0.9% as compared with a year ago, slightly lower than expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.0% increase.
Chinese producer inflation for January was also below expectations. The producer price index for January rose 9.1% as compared with a year earlier, against expectations in a Reuters poll for a 9.5% increase.
Over in South Korea, the Kospi advanced 1.65%. Elsewhere in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.79%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 1.01% higher.
Elsewhere, Russia’s government announced Tuesday that Moscow is starting to return some troops at the Ukrainian border, though NATO’s chief warned that the military alliance has so far “not seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground from the Russian side.”
Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 422.67 points to 34,988.84 while the S&P 500 climbed 1.58% to 4.471.07. The Nasdaq Composite surged 2.53% to 14,139.76.
More
Stock futures inch lower after major averages snap 3-day losing streak
U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower during overnight trading Tuesday, after registering gains on the session amid signs of tensions easing between Russia and Ukraine.
Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 39 points. S&P 500 futures were down 0.16%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.2%.
The major averages advanced during regular trading, snapping a three-day losing streak. The Dow gained 422 points, or 1.2%. The S&P added 1.58%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.5%.
President Joe Biden addressed the latest developments between Russia and Ukraine Tuesday afternoon, reiterating that the U.S. will defend NATO territory.
“If Russia proceeds, we will rally the world,” he said, adding that Washington’s allies were ready to impose powerful sanctions that will “undermine Russia’s ability to compete economically and strategically.”
The comments came after the Russian government said earlier in the day that some troops who had been on the Ukrainian border had returned to their bases.
This helped boost sentiment on Wall Street. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury topped 2% as a risk-on tone returned to the market.
Technology was the top-performing S&P 500 sector, with nine out of the 11 groups registering gains on the day. Utilities and energy stocks were the two sectors in the red, dipping 0.6% and 1.4%, respectively.
“U.S. stocks rallied on optimism that it doesn’t seem like Russia will invade Ukraine this week and despite another hot PPI report, as many on Wall Street are still not convinced the Fed will be as aggressive as some are calling for this year,” said Oanda’s Ed Moya.
The Labor Department said Tuesday that wholesale prices jumped 1% in January, bringing the gain over the past 12 months to 9.7% on an unadjusted basis.
As inflation runs hot, Wall Street is looking ahead to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, which will be released Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
“The latest inflation data continue to decimate the ‘inflation is purely transitory’ theory,’” said Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “After pricing in less than one Fed hike as of last September, markets and Fed watchers now expect between 6 and 7 hikes over the next year, with some arguing for a 50 basis point move and not just 25.”
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
Wholesale prices rise 1% in January, up near-record 9.7% over the past year
Prices at the wholesale level jumped twice the expected level in January as inflation pressures were unabated to start the year, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services, increased 1% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimate for 0.5%. Over the past 12 months the gauge rose an unadjusted 9.7%, close to a record in data going back to 2010.
Excluding food, energy and trade services, co-called core PPI climbed 0.9% for the month, well ahead of the 0.4% estimate. For the 12-month period, the measure increased 6.9%. Both core and headline PPI gains over the year were 0.1 percentage point lower than the record levels hit in December 2021.
As has been the case through much of the Covid pandemic era, goods prices outweighed those for services, rising 1.3% and 0.7% respectively. Final demand energy prices jumped 2.5% in January, while food climbed 1.6%.
The increases come amid burgeoning inflation across the economy, with consumer prices running at a 40-year high.
“PPI offers a window to the price pressures that businesses are facing, and which will likely be passed on to consumers in the way of consumer price inflation in the months to come,” PNC economist Kurt Rankin wrote. “Strong gains across the board for businesses reinforce the inflationary concerns that the Federal Reserve is set to battle this year with monetary policy, and which the economy in general has recently begun expressing caution and concern over.”
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/15/producer-price-index-january-2022-.html
Finally, in other news, the clean air fix that didn’t fix anything. Welcome to the new normal.
U.S. corn-based ethanol worse for the climate than gasoline, study finds
Mon, February 14, 2022, 8:00 PM
Feb 14 (Reuters) - Corn-based ethanol, which for years has been mixed in huge quantities into gasoline sold at U.S. pumps, is likely a much bigger contributor to global warming than straight gasoline, according to a study published Monday.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, contradicts previous research commissioned by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) showing ethanol and other biofuels to be relatively green.
President Joe Biden's administration is reviewing policies on biofuels as part of a broader effort to decarbonize the U.S. economy by 2050 to fight climate change.
“Corn ethanol is not a climate-friendly fuel,” said Dr. Tyler Lark, assistant scientist at University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment and lead author of the study.
The research, which was funded in part by the National Wildlife Federation and U.S. Department of Energy, found that ethanol is likely at least 24% more carbon-intensive than gasoline due to emissions resulting from land use changes to grow corn, along with processing and combustion.
Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, the ethanol trade lobby, called the study "completely fictional and erroneous," arguing the authors used "worst-case assumptions cherry-picked data."
Under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a law enacted in 2005, the nation's oil refiners are required to mix some 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol into the nation's gasoline annually. The policy was intended to reduce emissions, support farmers, and cut U.S. dependence on energy imports.
As a result of the mandate, corn cultivation grew 8.7% and expanded into 6.9 million additional acres of land between 2008 and 2016, the study found. That led to widespread changes in land use, including the tilling of cropland that would otherwise have been retired or enrolled in conservation programs and the planting of existing cropland with more corn, the study found.
Tilling fields releases carbon stored in soil, while other farming activities, like applying nitrogen fertilizers, also produce emissions.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-corn-based-ethanol-worse-200000730.html
Mankind are greater gainers by suffering each other to live as seems good to themselves, than by compelling each to live as seems good to the rest.
John Stuart Mill.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
UK must ‘get used to’ soaring inflation eroding living standards
Tuesday 15 February 2022 12:00 pm
Soaring inflation eroding Brits’ living standards is something the country needs “to get used to,” the City’s top economists warned today.
Fresh jobs figures published today revealing take home pay is being squeezed by the cost of living crisis is a sign of things to come.
Real earnings slid 1.2 per cent in December, meaning households are unable to maintain the same level of spending than before, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The latest damning living standards figures are “something we’re going to have to get used to,” Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, warned.
The hit to workers’ pay is set to get even worse very soon.
An expected 7.25 per cent inflation peak in April, compounded by a 1.25 percentage point national insurance hike and a 54 per cent uplift to the energy bill price cap will whack Brits’ take home pay to the tune of two per cent, the worst drop in living standards since comparable records began over three decades ago, according to the Bank of England.
The suffocating cost of living squeeze will choke UK economic growth this year, driven by Brits reining in spending to offset falls in real take home pay.
“The pressure on households’ real disposable income will intensify, slowing the recovery in consumers’ spending,” Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.
The ONS’ figures also illustrate that tension in the jobs market is intensifying.
More
https://www.cityam.com/uk-must-get-used-to-soaring-inflation-eroding-living-standards/
Column: High Brent, WTI prices lead Asian buyers to look elsewhere for crude
February 15, 2022 9:28 AM GMT
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Feb 15 (Reuters) - As paper crude oil heads towards $100 a barrel amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the physical markets in the top-importing region of Asia are changing their mix of suppliers to reflect widening differences in how various crudes are priced.
Brent crude futures ended at $95.85 a barrel on Monday. They climbed 1.5% from the previous close to reach the highest since September 2014, rising as the threat of a Russian invasion of neighbouring Ukraine drowns out any other potential price drivers.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures weren't far behind the global benchmark, ending at $95.46 a barrel, up 2.5% from the previous close.
The price of the main Middle East contract, the Dubai Mercantile Exchange's Oman futures has also been rising, though not quite at the same pace as its Western counterparts. It ended at $92.93 a barrel on Monday.
The Oman contract is also trading at a premium to one of the main measures of physical crude in the Middle East, namely cash Dubai , which ended at $90.74 a barrel on Monday.
What is key for physical traders and refiners in Asia is the difference between the various benchmarks. One of the most important of these is the Brent-Dubai exchange for swaps .
This ended at $5.59 a barrel on Monday - the highest premium for Brent over Dubai since 2013, and more than double the most recent low of $2.46 on Dec. 21.
What this means is that in the space of less than two months, the cost of buying a cargo priced against Brent as opposed to one priced off Dubai has surged for Asian refiners.
It takes some time for these changes to show up in the actual flows of cargoes, given refiners typically buy at least six weeks to two months ahead of delivery.
But there are some early signs: the movement of tankers from the United States to Asia slowed in February, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Refinitiv.
So far in February 12 tankers have departed U.S. ports for destinations in Asia, with one more currently awaiting loading and a further 10 potential loadings under negotiation.
This gives a combined potential total of 23 vessels carrying about 32.87 million barrels of oil leaving the United States for Asia in February, substantially down on the 52 carrying 51.46 million barrels that sailed in January.
More
All attempts by the State to bias the conclusions of its citizens on disputed subjects, are evil.
John Stuart Mill.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Japan posts record daily COVID deaths but new infections slow
February 16, 2022 1:36 AM GMT
TOKYO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Japan posted its deadliest day in the two-year COVID-19 pandemic, even as new infections from the Omicron-variant fueled wave declined.
Newly recorded fatalities rose to 236 on Tuesday, according to a tally by national broadcaster NHK, exceeding the previous record of 216 on May 18 last year. Nearly 2,000 people have died of the coronavirus in Japan so far in February.
Tokyo recorded 16 new deaths on Tuesday, most of them 70-90 years old, separate data showed.
Meanwhile, new cases numbered 84,220 across Japan, continuing a decline from record infections posted earlier in the month as Omicron outbreaks spread.
S.Korea reports record 90,443 COVID cases, daily count doubles in a week
February 16, 2022 1:24 AM GMT
SEOUL, Feb 16 (Reuters) - South Korea on Wednesday reported a daily record of 90,443 new coronavirus cases, as numbers nearly doubled within a week amid the spread of the highly infectious Omicron variant.
The record count for Tuesday marked a drastic surge from 57,177 a day before and brought total infections in the country since the pandemic began to 1,552,851. Deaths remain comparatively low, though, with 39 fatalities on Tuesday and a total of 7,202 so far, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).
The country of 52 million population has largely been a COVID-19 mitigation success story, thanks mainly to widespread wearing of masks, social distancing and aggressive testing and tracing.
But authorities have shifted testing and tracing policy, in line with the less fatal Omicron variant's spread, toward self-monitoring and diagnosis and at-home treatment starting this month.
Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said the government was considering easing the current strict distancing curbs which include a 9 p.m. curfew for restaurants, cafes and bars, and a ban on gatherings of more than six vaccinated people.
More than 86% of South Koreans have been fully vaccinated and 58% have received a booster shot, KDCA data showed.
COVID-19 travel rule change: Canada eases travel restrictions, removes COVID-19 PCR testing requirement
Tue, February 15, 2022, 6:05 PM
The Canadian government has announced that the mandatory PCR COVID-19 testing requirement for Canadians to travel back to the country will be removed for fully vaccinated travellers, at the end of the month.
As of Feb. 28 at 12:01 a.m. ET, these vaccinated travellers will be able to take a rapid antigen pre-arrival test, which is cheaper than the molecular test and results can be obtained in minutes. The antigen test must be administered by a laboratory, healthcare setting or telehealth service, no more than 24 hours before a travellers scheduled flight or arrival at Canada's land border.
Travellers can still choose to take a pre-arrival PCR test but those rules will not change, the test must be taken up to 72 hours before entering Canada.
Individuals who have received at least two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine (or one dose of the Janssen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine) are considered fully vaccinated. The second dose must have been administered at least 15 calendar days before arriving in Canada.
Canada will also continue random testing of vaccinated travellers when they arrive from any country. Anyone who is randomly selected will not have to quarantine while waiting for their result.
Additionally, Canada is lifting the isolation rule for children under the age of 12 who are not fully vaccinated, who are travelling with fully vaccinated adults.
Unvaccinated travellers will still have to take a PCR COVID-19 test when they arrive in Canada and quarantine for 14 days.
On Feb. 28 at 4:00 p.m. ET, Transport Canada’s Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) will expire, meaning that international passenger flights can land at all remaining Canadian airports that usually receive international travellers.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/canada-travel-rules-covid19-border-180513424.html
New research points to possible reason for long COVID
By SHIRA SILKOFF Published: FEBRUARY 14, 2022 16:37 Updated: FEBRUARY 15, 2022 14:16
Many symptoms of Post-COVID-19 syndrome could be caused by lasting damage sustained to one of the most important nerves in the human body during initial infection with coronavirus, new research has suggested.
The vagus nerve is the 10th cranial nerve and is the longest and most complex of all of them. It runs from the brain throughout the entirety of the face and chest, reaching the abdomen. The vagus nerve serves as the main connection between the brain and the gastrointestinal tract, sending back information about the state of the inner organs.
As well as being crucial to the gastrointestinal system as it controls the transfer of food from the mouth to the stomach and moves food through the intestines, the vagus nerve is also responsible for multiple other processes such as controlling the heart rate, sweat production and the gag reflex, as well as certain muscle movements in the mouth, including those necessary for speech.
New research set to be presented at this year’s European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID) investigates the connection between Post-COVID-19 syndrome, also known as long COVID, and the vagus nerve.
The pilot study was authored by Dr. Gemma Lladós and Dr. Lourdes Mateu of the Germans Trias i Pujol University Hospital Badalona, Spain, and its findings will be presented at the congress, taking place between April 23-26 in Lisbon, Portugal.
The study suggests that SARS-CoV-2-mediated vagus nerve dysfunction (VND) could be responsible for many of the symptoms of long COVID, including persistent voice problems, difficulty swallowing, dizziness, abnormally high heart rate (tachycardia), low blood pressure and digestive issues.
More
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/article-696452
WHO Europe warns of COVID rise in east, like Russia, Ukraine
February 16, 2022
COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — The head of the World Health Organization’s Europe office said Tuesday that health officials are turning their attention to growing rates of COVID-19 infection in Eastern Europe, where six countries — including Russia and Ukraine — have seen a doubling in case counts over the last two weeks.
Dr. Hans Kluge said the 53-country region, which stretches to former Soviet republics into central Asia, has now tallied more than 165 million confirmed coronavirus cases and 1.8 million deaths linked to the pandemic — including 25,000 in the last week alone.
“Today, our focus is towards the east of the WHO European region,” Kluge said in Russian at a media briefing, pointing to a surge in the highly transmissible omicron variant. “Over the past two weeks, cases of COVID-19 have more than doubled in six countries in this part of the region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine).”
“As anticipated, the omicron wave is moving east: 10 eastern Member States have now detected this variant,” he said.
Omicron, however, is milder than previous variants and health care systems in most countries around the world aren’t under strain.
Kluge sought to put an emphasis on improving vaccination rates, which have lagged in Eastern Europe compared to the rest of the region. He said less than 40% of people over age 60 in Bosnia, Bulgaria, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan have completed a full COVID-19 vaccine series.
He called on governments and health officials “to closely examine the local reasons influencing lower vaccine demand and acceptance, and devise tailored interventions to increase vaccination rates urgently, based on the context-specific evidence.” He also said it was “not the moment to lift measures that we know work in reducing the spread of COVID-19.”
The WHO Europe chief also highlighted his “message of hope” — pointing to high levels of immunity through vaccination or recovery from infection, and the looming end of the winter season that causes many people to gather indoors, where the virus can spread more easily.
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene spintronics: 1D contacts improve mobility in nano-scale devices
Date: February 11, 2022
Source: University of Manchester
Summary: Researchers may have cleared a significant hurdle on the path to quantum computing, demonstrating step-change improvements in the spin transport characteristics of nanoscale graphene-based electronic devices.
The team -- comprising researchers from the National Graphene Institute (NGI) led by Dr Ivan Vera Marun, alongside collaborators from Japan and including students internationally funded by Ecuador and Mexico -- used monolayer graphene encapsulated by another 2D material (hexagonal boron nitride) in a so-called van der Waals heterostructure with one-dimensional contacts. This architecture was observed to deliver an extremely high-quality graphene channel, reducing the interference or electronic 'doping' by traditional 2D tunnel contacts.
'Spintronic' devices, as they are known, may offer higher energy efficiency and lower dissipation compared to conventional electronics, which rely on charge currents. In principle, phones and tablets operating with spin-based transistors and memories could be greatly improved in speed and storage capacity, exceeding Moore's Law.
As published in Nano Letters, the Manchester team measured electron mobility up to 130,000cm2/Vs at low temperatures (20K or -253oC). For purposes of comparison, the only previously published efforts to fabricate a device with 1D contacts achieved mobility below 30,000cm2/Vs, and the 130k figure measured at the NGI is higher than recorded for any other previous graphene channel where spin transport was demonstrated.
The researchers also recorded spin diffusion lengths approaching 20μm. Where longer is better, most typical conducting materials (metals and semiconductors) have spin diffusion lengths <1μm. The value of spin diffusion length observed here is comparable to the best graphene spintronic devices demonstrated to date.
Lead author of the study Victor Guarochico said: "Our work is a contribution to the field of graphene spintronics. We have achieved the largest carrier mobility yet regarding spintronic devices based on graphene. Moreover, the spin information is conserved over distances comparable with the best reported in the literature. These aspects open up the possibility to explore logic architectures using lateral spintronic elements where long-distance spin transport is needed."
Co-author Chris Anderson added: "This research work has provided exciting evidence for a significant and novel approach to controlling spin transport in graphene channels, thereby paving the way towards devices possessing comparable features to advanced contemporary charge-based devices. Building on this work, bilayer graphene devices boasting 1D contacts are now being characterised, where the presence of an electrostatically tuneable bandgap enables an additional dimension to spin transport control."
Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion. Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.
John Stuart Mill.
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