Virus Rebound. Drought. The Fed’s Plan!

Baltic Dry Index. 2472 +40 Brent Crude 66.08

Spot Gold 1782

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 21/04/21 World 143,556,326

Deaths 3,057,781

Plan? What plan?

Fed Chairman Powell, with apologies to Prime Minister “Sunny” Jim Callaghan. 

In the stock casinos this morning, coronavirus gloom.  

Will the Indian double mutant spread outside of India?

Will Japan have to cancel the delayed Olympics? 

Will international tourism and cruising ever return?

Is there a future for air travel?

Will the vaccines need annual booster shots?

Does the everything bubble have legs?

Asian stocks fall as virus worries return to haunt markets

April 21, 2021  2:38 AM  By Stanley White

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares and U.S. stock futures fell on Wednesday as concern about a resurgence of coronavirus cases in some countries cast doubt on the strength of global growth and demand for crude oil.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.6%. Australian stocks dropped 1.25% and shares in China were down 0.46%.

Stocks in Tokyo slumped by 1.79% due the growing likelihood that Tokyo, Osaka and surrounding areas will be put on lockdown due to a new wave of coronavirus infections.

S&P 500 e-mini stock futures also fell 0.18%.

Crude futures extended declines from a one-month high in Asian trading on speculation that coronavirus restrictions in India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, will hurt energy demand.

Recent optimism about rising vaccination rates in the United States, Britain, and Europe is shifting to concern that record coronavirus infections in India and the reinforcement of travel restrictions will act as a brake on the global economy.

“Renewed concerns about the global economic recovery weighed on commodity prices and commodity currencies. Many countries around the world, such as India and Brazil, set new records for infections and deaths,” analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a research note.

“As long as the virus persists, there is a risk virus mutants develop and spread to other countries.”

Declines in Asian shares followed a downbeat day on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.75%, the S&P 500 lost 0.68%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.92% on Tuesday as investors sold airlines and travel-related shares due to fear of a delayed recovery in global tourism.

---- India, the world’s second most populous country and a major energy consumer, reported its worst daily death toll on Tuesday, with large parts of the country now under lockdown.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/asian-stocks-fall-as-virus-worries-return-to-haunt-markets-idUSKBN2C805L

 

State Department To Issue Travel Warnings Amid 'Unprecedented' COVID-19 Risks

Vanessa Romo  April 19, 20218:20 PM ET

The U.S. State Department on Monday announced plans to expand travel advisories, urging U.S. citizens to stay home as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose "unprecedented risks" around the globe.

The updated travel guidelines are intended to curb visits "to approximately 80% of countries worldwide" that are experiencing dramatic spikes in cases, the department said in a statement. New guidance is expected be released later this week.

The latest recommendations come as the coronavirus "continues to pose unprecedented risks to travelers," and the new guidelines "better reflect the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's science-based Travel Health Notices," according to the notice.

The State Department added: "As always, we are closely monitoring conditions around the globe, and will regularly update our destination-specific advice to U.S. travelers as conditions evolve."

As of Monday afternoon, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center reported 141,786,586 COVID-19 cases around the world. The United States has confirmed more cases than any other country in the world — 31,733,400 with India, Brazil, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Italy, Spain and Germany rounding out the top 10 spots. Meanwhile, global deaths have surpassed 3 million, according to the latest data.

More

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/04/19/988940638/state-department-to-issue-travel-warnings-amid-unprecedented-covid-19-risks

In a worrying sign of food price inflation to come, the great US/Canada western drought seems to be intensifying. While it’s not yet too late for spring rains to arrive to rescue crop plantings, with each passing day that gets more unlikely.

 

Farmers Warn That The Megadrought In The Western U.S. Threatens To Cause Devastating Crop Failures In 2021

April 19, 2021 by Michael Snyder

Throughout U.S. history, there have always been droughts in the western half of the country from time to time, but what we are dealing with now is truly alarming.  Scientists tell us that a multi-year “megadrought” has developed in the southwestern portion of the country, and this is the worst year of that “megadrought” so far by a wide margin.  If conditions do not radically improve soon, we are going to have a major agricultural disaster on our hands.  Some farmers have already decided not to plant crops at all this year, but many others have decided to plant anyway knowing that if enough rain doesn’t come their crops will certainly fail.

As I have discussed previously, the epicenter of this “megadrought” is the Four Corners region in the Southwest, but this drought is so immense it is even causing immense nightmares for farmers as far away as North Dakota.

In fact, the first few months of this year were the driest that North Dakota has seen in 126 years…

The period of January to March 2021 was the driest in 126 years for North Dakota. Farmers are starting to make difficult decisions on planting and culling herds as the governor of the state declared a statewide drought disaster on April 8. Soil moistures across the state, particularly in western portions of North Dakota, are lacking sufficient moisture to sustain normal crop development growth. The first eight days of April 2021 offered little help as hot, summer-like temperatures, gusty winds, and low humidity across the state accelerated drying conditions.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, well over half the state is now experiencing “severe drought”.

Perhaps you don’t care about what is happening in North Dakota, but you should, because much of the wheat that we use for pasta and flour comes from that region…

Things are dry and dusty in the Upper Midwest, the Northern Plains states and the Prairie provinces of Canada.

This region, spanning states such as North Dakota and provinces such as Manitoba, is the most important one for spring wheat, the higher-gluten variety that’s used for pasta or mixed with other wheat for all-purpose flour. And that crop is at significant risk, because conditions in the region are pretty dire this year.

In a previous article I discussed the dramatic rise in food prices that we have been witnessing lately, and now drought fears are pushing futures prices for spring wheat quite a bit higher…

The US Drought Monitor shows around 70 percent of North Dakota in “extreme drought” conditions, with most of the rest in the slightly less scary “severe drought” rating. As a result, the futures prices of both spring wheat and canola are at their highest in years, with traders expecting a lower harvest this year.

Despite all of our advanced technology, farmers can’t grow crops if it doesn’t rain, and a farmer in Texas named Blake Fennell says that his farm has not had any significant rain in almost two years…

The West Texas farmer says his area hasn’t seen significant rain fall in nearly two years.

“We’ve still got to give that crop every chance we think we can get, but at the same time, we also can’t waste a lot of money on a crop that we don’t think we’re going to have going into it,” he says.

What a nightmare.

Right now, nearly the entire state of Texas is in some level of drought, and we haven’t even gotten to the summer months yet.

To call this a “plague” would be a major understatement.  On the border of Oregon and California, farmers just learned that water levels are so low that they will only get “a tiny fraction of the water they need” in 2021…

---- U.S. food production will be down in 2021, but if sufficient rain starts falling in the western U.S. we could still see a miracle.

But if enough rain does not fall, we are going to see epic crop failures.

Meanwhile, it is being projected that the drought will cause the water level in Lake Mead to soon fall to the lowest level ever recorded…

More

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/farmers-warn-that-the-megadrought-in-the-western-u-s-threatens-to-cause-devastating-crop-failures-in-2021/

Finally, after losing at least 4.8 billion dollars financing trade bets it didn’t understand, Credit Swiss is closing the stable door. Better late than never I suppose, but poor Hamza wasn’t among the horses that bolted.

Credit Suisse Halts Star Trader’s Fund on Risk Concerns

By Antonio Vanuzzo, Laura Benitez, and Marion Halftermeyer

April 20, 2021, 5:39 AM EDT

Credit Suisse Group AG paused the launch of a credit fund run by star trader Hamza Lemssouguer as it dials back risk in the aftermath of the twin implosions of Archegos Capital Management and Greensill Capital, according to people familiar with the decision.

The pause marks a shift for Credit Suisse, which last year lured Lemssouguer back from Ken Griffin’s hedge fund Citadel and gave him a new role overseeing the launch of a credit strategy in the asset unit. The fund targeted as much as $500 million in assets, according to an investor update seen by Bloomberg News.

A spokesperson for Credit Suisse and Lemssouguer declined to comment.

The reversal comes as Credit Suisse is trying to move past a crisis of confidence triggered by the collapse of family office Archegos and the unraveling of supply-chain firm Greensill in quick succession. The debacles triggered sweeping changes by Chief Executive Thomas Gottstein, who cut the bank’s dividend, overhauled its leadership and is considering spinning off the asset management unit.

Credit Suisse was forced to take a 4.4 billion-franc ($4.8 billion) writedown tied to Archegos, removed risk chief Lara Warner and replaced veteran Eric Varvel as head of asset management. In the latest twist, its prime-brokerage co-heads John Dabbs and Ryan Nelson will step down immediately, according to a company memo on Monday. The Zurich-based bank for now is only approving what it considers uncomplicated and straightforward fund strategies, according to one person.

Over the past few months, Lemssouguer held investor presentations to raise money for his absolute return credit fund, which aimed to take advantage of distortions in credit markets with long and short positions, stressed opportunities, and the capability to single-name shorting, according to the presentation. Former BlackRock Inc. trader Jeysson Abergel was just hired to join Lemssouguer’s team.

Lemssouguer, who’s in his early 30s, quickly climbed the ranks after joining Credit Suisse in 2014. While there, he pushed aggressively into risky corporate debt at the start of last year and traded at least $21 billion in junk debt by mid-March 2020, Bloomberg reported at the time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-20/credit-suisse-halts-star-trader-s-fund-on-risk-concerns?srnd=premium-europe

"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."

Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.

 

Global Inflation Watch.          

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Despite what Fed Chairman Powell told the Senate and Congress about holding interest rates lower for longer no matter what the inflation rate, that it seems was just for public consumption. In reality, it seems, the Fedsters are just winging it, from day to day, operating without any clear plan.

If true, at any point in time the Fed can collapse the everything bubble as they get into a panic over inflation.

We haven't got a plan so nothing can go wrong!

Chairman Powell, with apologies to Spike Milligan.

Exclusive: Fed will limit any overshoot of inflation target, Powell says

April 20, 2021  5:07 PM  By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) - The U.S. economy is going to temporarily see “a little higher” inflation this year as the recovery strengthens and supply constraints push up prices in some sectors, but the Federal Reserve is committed to limiting any overshoot, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an April 8 letter to Senator Rick Scott.

“We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period,” Powell said in a five-page response to a March 24 letter in which the Florida Republican raised concerns about rising inflation and the U.S. central bank’s bond-buying program.

Those modifiers - “substantially” exceeding 2% inflation or above that level for a “prolonged” period - help to more sharply define the upper bounds of the Fed’s comfort zone as prices rise.

“I would emphasize, though, that we are fully committed to both legs of our dual mandate - maximum employment and stable prices,” Powell said.

The Fed slashed its benchmark overnight interest rate to near zero last March after the coronavirus pandemic hit the United States, and has promised to leave borrowing costs unchanged until the economy reaches full employment, and inflation hits 2% and is on track to “moderately” exceed that level for some time.

The central bank is also buying $120 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities each month to keep interest rates at a level that supports hiring and spending, and has promised to keep doing so until it sees “substantial further progress” toward full employment and the 2% flexible inflation target.

---- “If progress towards our employment and inflation objectives slows, we will maintain a highly accommodative stance for longer,” Powell wrote in the letter. “Conversely, if progress turns out to be more rapid, adjustments to the stance of policy would likely occur sooner.”

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-powell-exclusive/exclusive-fed-will-limit-any-overshoot-of-inflation-target-powell-says-idUSKBN2C729X

Why stagflation is a growing threat to the global economy

Nouriel Roubini  Thu 15 Apr 2021 10.18 BST

From trade wars and deglobalisation to ageing populations and populist politics, there’s no shortage of inflationary threats on the horizon

There is a growing debate about whether the inflation that will arise over the next few months will be temporary, reflecting the sharp bounce-back from the Covid-19 recession, or persistent, reflecting demand-pull and cost-push factors.

Several arguments point to a persistent secular increase in inflation, which has remained below most central banks’ annual 2% target for more than a decade. The first holds that the US has enacted excessive fiscal stimulus for an economy that already appears to be recovering faster than expected. The additional $1.9tn (£1.4tn) of spending approved in March came on top of a $3tn package last spring and a $900bn stimulus in December, and a $2tn infrastructure bill will soon follow. The US response to the crisis is thus an order of magnitude larger than its response to the 2008 global financial crisis.

The counter-argument is that this stimulus will not trigger lasting inflation, because households will save a large fraction of it to pay down debts. Moreover, investments in infrastructure will increase not just demand but also supply, by expanding the stock of productivity-enhancing public capital. But, of course, even accounting for these dynamics, the bulge of private savings brought by the stimulus implies that there will be some inflationary release of pent-up demand.

A second, related, argument is that the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks are being excessively accommodative with policies that combine monetary and credit easing. The liquidity provided by central banks has already led to asset inflation in the short run, and will drive inflationary credit growth and real spending as economic reopening and recovery accelerate. Some will argue that when the time comes, central banks can simply mop up the excess liquidity by drawing down their balance sheets and raising policy rates from zero or negative levels. But this claim has become increasingly hard to swallow.

Centrals banks have been monetising large fiscal deficits in what amounts to “helicopter money”, or an application of Modern Monetary Theory. At a time when public and private debt is growing from an already high baseline (425% of GDP in advanced economies and 356% globally), only a combination of low short- and long-term interest rates can keep debt burdens sustainable. Monetary-policy normalisation at this point would crash bond and credit markets, and then stock markets, inciting a recession. Central banks have effectively lost their independence.

---- In the short run, the slack in markets for goods, labour and commodities, and in some real-estate markets, will prevent a sustained inflationary surge. But over the next few years, loose monetary and fiscal policies will start to trigger persistent inflationary – and eventually stagflationary – pressure, owing to the emergence of any number of persistent negative supply shocks.

Make no mistake: inflation’s return would have severe economic and financial consequences. We would have gone from the “Great Moderation” to a new period of macro instability. The secular bull market in bonds would finally end, and rising nominal and real bond yields would make today’s debts unsustainable, crashing global equity markets. In due time, we could even witness the return of 1970s-style malaise.

Nouriel Roubini is professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. He has worked for the IMF, the US Federal Reserve and the World Bank.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/15/why-stagflation-is-a-growing-threat-to-the-global-economy

Procter & Gamble Will Raise Prices in September

Price increases on baby products, adult diapers and feminine-care brands come as the company reports slowing growth in latest quarter

April 20, 2021 7:01 am ET

Procter & Gamble Co. PG -0.47% this fall will start charging more for household staples from diapers to tampons, the latest and biggest consumer-products company to announce price hikes.

The maker of Gillette razors and Tide detergent cited rising costs for raw materials, such as resin and pulp, and higher expenses to transport goods.

The announcement, which came as P&G disclosed its quarterly financial results, follows a similar move last month by rival Kimberly-Clark Corp.

More

https://www.wsj.com/articles/procter-gamble-will-raise-prices-in-september-11618916498?mod=mhp

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

COVID-19: India adds 2,59,170 new cases in single day, record 1,761 fatalities

New Delhi, Apr 20 (PTI) India's total tally of COVID-19 cases climbed to?1,53,21,089?with?2,59,170?new coronavirus infections being reported in a day,?while active cases surpassed the 20-lakh mark,?according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Tuesday

The death toll increased to?1,80,530 with?a record 1,761 new fatalities,?the data updated at 8 am showed

Registering a steady increase for the 41st day in a row, the active cases increased to?20,31,977,?comprising 13.26?per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has dropped to 85.56 per cent

The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 1,31,08,582,?while the case fatality rate has further dropped to 1.18 per cent, the data stated

India's COVID-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 30 lakh?on?August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and?50 lakh on?September 16.It went past??60 lakh on September 28,?70 lakh on??October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29,?90 lakh on?November 20 and?surpassed the?one-crore mark on December 19

According to the ICMR,?26,94,14,035 samples have been tested up to?April 19?with?15,19,486 samples being tested on Monday.

The 1,716 new fatalities include 351 from Maharashtra,? 240 from Delhi, 175 from?Chhattisgarh, 167 from Uttar Pradesh, 146 from Karnataka, 117 from Gujarat, 83 from Punjab,?79 from? Madhya Pradesh,?53 from Rajasthan, 46 from Jharkhand, 44 from Tamil Nadu, 41 from Bihar and 38 from West Bengal and 33 from Haryana

A total of 1,80,530 deaths have been reported so far in the country including 60,824 from Maharashtra, 13,497 from Karnataka ,13,157 from Tamil Nadu, 12,361 from Delhi, 10,606 from West Bengal, 9,997 from Uttar Pradesh, 7,985 from Punjab and 7,437 from Andhra Pradesh

The health ministry stressed that more than 70 per cent of the deaths occurred due to comorbidities.

http://www.ptinews.com/news/12353256_COVID-19--India-adds-2-59-170-new-cases-in-single-day--record-1-761-fatalities.html

Lakh

A lakh (/læk, lɑːk/; abbreviated L; sometimes written lac^[1]) is a unit in the Indian numbering system equal to one hundred thousand (100,000; scientific notation: 10⁵).^[1][2] In the Indian 2,2,3 convention of digit grouping, it is written as 1,00,000.^[3] For example, in India 150,000 rupees becomes 1.5 lakh rupees, written as ₹1,50,000 or INR 1,50,000.

It is widely used both in official and other contexts in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. It is often used in Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani, and Sri Lankan English.

More

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakh

New virus cases in 500s for 2nd day; Seoul aims to vaccinate 3 mln by end-April

National 15:04 April 20, 2021

SEOUL, April 20 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's daily new coronavirus cases remained in the 500s for the second day Tuesday as health authorities vow to accelerate the country's nationwide vaccination campaign targeting the vaccination of 3 million by the end of this month.

The country is also seeking to sign a "swap" deal with the United States to secure enough vaccines amid woes over supply shortage.

The nation reported 549 additional COVID-19 cases, including 529 local infections, raising the total caseload to 115,195, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said.

The daily tally was slightly up from 532 cases Monday. The comparable figures were 671 on Sunday and 658 on Saturday.

The daily figure stayed above 600 last week due to growing virus clusters as the warmer weather has led more people to engage in social activities.

The country added one more death, raising the death toll to 1,802.

The recent uptick in new cases led health authorities to maintain the current level of social distancing rules through May 2, while adding restrictions to entertainment establishments, such as night clubs and bars.

The greater Seoul area, home to half of the nation's 52 million population, is under the Level 2 distancing scheme, the third highest in the five-phase system. The rest of the country is under Level 1.5, except for some municipalities that have adopted Level 2 measures.

Private gatherings of five or more people are banned nationwide.

Despite fears of another wave, health authorities said the country's medical system is able to cope with the current situation.

"Compared with the previous week, (the number of new cases) is gradually increasing," Yoon Tae-ho, a senior health official, said in a briefing.

More

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210420002054320?section=national/national

Oxford immune response trial to reinfect recovered COVID-19 patients

By Rich Haridy  April 19, 2021

UK researchers are set to purposely re-infect a cohort of recovered COVID-19 patients in order to study how the immune system responds to a second encounter with SARS-CoV-2. This human challenge trial expands on an ongoing study deliberately infecting healthy subjects to test vaccine efficacy.

For much of 2020 researchers around the world debated whether or not deliberately infecting healthy young adults with SARS-CoV-2 was a useful or ethical way to study the virus. Late last year a large partnership between the UK government and several research groups agreed to commence these studies in early 2021.

The first phase began a couple of months ago, exposing a small group of young and healthy volunteers to the virus. This part of the study is homing in on the lowest dose of virus that consistently leads to the development of COVID-19. Once that has been determined the research will move onto broader experiments, including vaccine efficacy studies.

This new trial, led by researchers from the University of Oxford, is exploring a new question. How does the immune system respond when it encounters SARS-CoV-2 a second time?

The research spans two phases. The first phase is similar to the current phase of the other ongoing human challenge trial. A small cohort of young subjects who have previously recovered from COVID-19 will be recruited. In a custom-built quarantine facility they will be exposed to low doses of the virus in order to find the minimum dose that leads to viral replication regardless of symptoms.

The second phase will then recruit up to 64 young subjects also previously infected with the virus. They will be exposed to the minimum viral dose established in the first phase and then comprehensively monitored for at least 17 days.

“In phase two, we will explore two different things,” explains Helen McShane, chief investigator on the new trial. “First, we will define very carefully the baseline immune response in the volunteers, before we infect them. We will then infect them with the dose of virus chosen from the first study and measure how much virus we can detect after infection. We will then be able to understand what kind of immune responses protect against re-infection. Second, we will measure the immune response at several time points after infection so we can understand what immune response is generated by the virus.”

More

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/oxford-immune-response-trial-reinfect-recovered-coronavirus-patients/

 

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Solar panels are reaching their limit. These crystals could change that.

Solar panels made from materials called perovskites could change how we generate electricity, opening the door to flexible and even transparent solar panels.

April 19, 2021, 8:03 PM BST / Updated April 20, 2021, 12:05 AM BST

When the Biden administration announced in late March a $128 million initiative to improve the costs of solar power, a significant chunk of the money went to research into materials named after an obscure 19th century Russian geologist and nobleman: Lev Perovski.

Among the projects listed: $40 million for research and development into so-called perovskite materials that scientists are using to push the limits of just how efficient and adaptable solar cells can be. 

And while perovskites aren't anything new — they were first found in Russia’s Ural Mountains in 1839, and they are relatively common — their more recent applications in solar power technology has sparked hope that humans will use them to better harness the thousands of megawatts of energy from the sun that falls on Earth every hour.

“Perovskites, I would argue, are one of the most exciting opportunities for solar cells in the immediate future,” said David Mitzi, a professor of Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science at Duke University, who has studied the materials since the 1990s. 

Any new solar power technology had to compete with silicon solar cells, an entrenched technology used for more than 50 years, Mitzi said. But perovskites had the potential to both enhance the efficiencies of silicon cells, and perhaps to compete with them directly: “I think there definitely are opportunities.”

---- Scientists have now discovered a whole class of perovskite materials that share a specific structure, incorporating three different chemicals within a cubic crystal shape. They recognized years ago that some perovskites were semiconductors, like the silicon used in electronics. But it was only in 2009 that researchers found perovskites could also be used to build solar cells, which turn sunlight into usable electricity.

The first perovskite cells had very low efficiencies, so most of the sunlight that fell on them wasn’t used. But they’ve rapidly improved. 

“The efficiency with which solar cells that have these perovskite materials convert sunlight to electrons has increased at a really incredible rate, to the extent that now the efficiencies are close to those of silicon solar cells in the lab,” said Lynn Loo, a professor of chemical engineering at Princeton University and the director of the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment. “That's why we are so excited about this class of materials."

Perovskite solar cells can also be made relatively easily – unlike silicon cells, which need to be refined at very high temperatures and so need a lot of energy to make. Perovskites can be made as thin sheets at low temperatures, or as inks that can effectively be “printed” onto substrates of other materials, such as flexible rolls of plastic. 

---- But one of the most promising uses of perovskite cells is to combine them with silicon cells so that they use more of the sun’s energy than silicon alone. The best silicon cells are approaching their theoretical maximum efficiency of about 29 percent. But perovskite cells can be tuned to generate electricity from wavelengths of light that silicon cells don’t use – and so covering silicon solar cells with semi-transparent films of perovskite cells could overcome that fundamental limit.

Physicist Henry Snaith at the University of Oxford, a leading researcher in perovskite solar cells, sees this as a way to combine the industrial dominance of silicon with the technological advantages of perovskites. He thinks “tandem” silicon and perovskite cells with efficiencies above 40 percent efficiency could be commercially widespread within 10 years, and that they could soon be followed by multilayered cells with efficiencies of over 50 percent.

More

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/solar-panels-are-reaching-limit-crystals-change-rcna545

As President Biden’s Climate Change summit looms, participants might want to first Google:

THE “NEW ENERGY ECONOMY”: AN EXERCISE IN MAGICAL THINKING