Baltic Dry Index. 2385 +62 Brent Crude 66.54
Spot Gold 1778
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 19/04/21 World 142,017,465
Deaths 3,033,003
“War is
peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”
1984
As usual we open with news from the Asian stock casinos, but the real news this morning is our new cold war against China and Russia seems to be headed down the road to starting a hot war. Cui bono?
Almost as bad, new Covid-19 variants seem to have given the pandemic a new global surge in the third world led by India. And some of the vaccines aren’t as effective as first thought or come with unanticipated risks, though still with a risk reward benefit, say the experts.
Which is to come first? A hot war with Russia and China plus allies or a massive bout of global inflation as all the Magic Money Tree money devalues the purchasing power of the Great Nixonian Error of the fiat currencies, communist money?
Both?
Asian shares near 1-1/2 week highs, Bitcoin recoups losses
China is shoring up ties with autocratic partners like Russia and Iran, as well as economically dependent regional countries, while using sanctions and threats to try to fracture the alliances the United States is building against it.
Worryingly for Beijing, diplomats and analysts say, the Biden administration has got other democracies to toughen up to a rising, more globally assertive China on human rights and regional security issues like the disputed South China Sea.
"China has always resolutely opposed the U.S. side engaging in bloc politics along ideological lines, and ganging up to form anti-China cliques," the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement to Reuters.
"We hope relevant countries see clearly their own interests...and are not reduced to being anti-China tools of the U.S."
After last month's stormy talks between top U.S. and Chinese diplomats in Anchorage, Beijing also appeared to engage more urgently with countries like Russia, Iran and North Korea, which are also on the wrong end of U.S.-led sanctions.
"China is very worried about U.S. alliance diplomacy," said Li Mingjiang, associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, pointing to what he calls attempts to "huddle for warmth" with governments shunned by the West.
Days after the Alaska meeting, the Chinese government’s top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, received Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who called for Moscow and Beijing to push back against what he called the West’s ideological agenda.
A week later, Wang flew to Iran and signed a 25-year economic pact, which Renmin University professor Shi Yinhong said “effectively exposes every Chinese company participating to direct or indirect U.S. sanctions.”
President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, exchanged messages with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, calling for a deeper partnership with another country whose ambitions for nuclear arms has drawn sanctions.
China is also wooing its economically dependent neighbours. Wang hosted foreign ministers from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and South Korea in China's southeastern Fujian province in recent weeks.
Li said Beijing will be holding out promises to help these countries revive their economies after the COVID-19 pandemic, making them think twice about siding with the United States.
After Philippines diplomats and generals accused China of sending militia-manned vessels into their waters, President Rodrigo Duterte said he was not going to let territorial disputes in the South China Sea get in the way of working with China on vaccines and economic recovery.
More
China's March exports to North Korea spike to six-month high
April 19, 2021 3:40 AM BST
China's exports to North Korea in March rose to a six-month high, with outbound shipments to its neighbour that month nearly 400 times more than January-February combined, in a sign of easing border restrictions imposed due to COVID-19.
China exported $12.978 million of goods to North Korea in March, up from $3,000 in February and $33,000 in the first two months, according to Chinese customs data released on Sunday.
The shipments in March were the highest by value since $18.882 million in September last year.
China imported $1.308 million of North Korean goods in March compared with $1.75 million in February.
Early last year, North Korea banned almost all cross-border travel, and some countries including Britain, France and Germany withdrew their local representatives.
Global commodity price spike to have limited impact on China's prices - NDRC
April 19, 2021 4:47 AM BST
The gains in global commodity prices are not sustainable over the long term and their impact on China's domestic prices will be limited and controllable, the country's top economic planning agency said on Monday.
Price trends in China will be influenced by external factors as commodity prices rise, but the domestic market and government policy would provide support to the stabilisation in prices, Meng Wei, spokeswoman at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), told reporters at a regular briefing.
"Prices will remain within a reasonable range," Meng said, adding that the consumer price index (CPI) in particular would grow mildly this year and remain within the official target.
China has set a target for CPI at around 3% this year.
“It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets.”
Global Inflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
France pledges more than €1 billion in aid for farmers, winemakers hit by frost
Issued on: 18/04/2021
French Prime Minister Jean Castex on Saturday pledged more than one billion euros in aid for farmers and winemakers reeling from the worst frost in decades.
Across France, agriculturists are counting their losses after the freeze -- which followed a period of unseasonably warm weather -- affected hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops and vines in 10 of the country's 13 regions.
"An exceptional situation, exceptional measures. I have just announced a significant effort on the part of the state of over one billion euros ($1.2 billion) as the situation justifies it," Castex told a meeting of farmers' representatives and local elected officials in southern France.
He said emergency aid would be given "in 10 or 15 days" to local officials to help the worst-affected farmers.
Arborists or tree growers qualifying for compensation under the current state of agricultural calamity regime would be paid for 40 percent of their losses.
As well as vines, growers of kiwis, apricots, apples and other fruit have been badly hit along with farmers of other crops such as beet and rapeseed.
"The government has taken stock of the seriousness of the situation," Christine Lambert, the president of the main farmers' union FNSEA told AFP, adding that it had reacted "speedily".
Agriculture minister Julien Denormandie said the government funds would be used for "rapid compensation."
Bruno Darnaud, the head of another agricultural lobby, said France could see its fruit harvest dwindle by half -- meaning losses of around 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion).
And the FNSEA says at least a third of the production in vineyards -- representing two billion euros -- will be lost due to the frost.
Soaring lumber prices drive up home renovation costs
After spending a year inside, 43-year-old Calgary homeowner Carrie-Lynn Saville and her husband, Matt, were planning on renovating their deck this summer. They’d just done a major renovation to their main floor prior to the pandemic, and had budgeted about $8,000 to renew their backyard space by replacing the deck, adding skirting and a pergola to hang lights.
Their quotes came back between $14,000 and $20,000. “It’s insane. That’s a car! We could have a car or a deck,” Ms. Saville said.
The rising cost of lumber has pushed up the price of renovations, leaving many homeowners facing far larger bills than they would have a year ago, and with summer right around the corner, many Canadians are looking to renovate their outdoor spaces. One in four Canadian homeowners who are planning a renovation hope to get started within the next six months, according to the 2021 Scotiabank Housing Poll. Additionally, 33 per cent of homeowners polled have chosen their backyard as the top space to renovate.
John Duncanson, a timber analyst at Corton Captial, said demand for lumber and the itch to get outside is seasonal, but not necessarily the reason the cost of lumber is “skyrocketing.”
There are multiple reasons the cost of lumber keeps climbing, Mr. Duncanson said, including a disrupted supply chain and housing affordability.
According to Mr. Duncanson, 2019 saw a number of sawmills close down in British Columbia – one of Canada’s biggest lumber producers – owing to a lack of commercial timber. Those that were meant to be built in 2020 have been pushed to 2021 or even 2022, making it hard for companies to keep up with the demand.
More
Inflation is coming, the question is when
Updated 1947 GMT (0347 HKT) April 16, 2021
New York (CNN Business)The stock market is soaring and bond yields have pulled back after a big spike earlier this year. But make no mistake: Investors still have plenty to fret about when it comes to the threat of inflation.
The US economy is rebounding thanks to stimulus and Covid-19 vaccines. Retail sales went through the roof in March; the housing market roared back to life and the number of people filing for unemployment claims plunged last week. And all of that follows the blockbuster March jobs report.
This growth will likely lead to inflation — and higher interest rates. The only question is when.
Investors freaked out about inflation in March, sending long-term bond rates to their highest point since pre-pandemic levels from January 2020. But the yield on the 10-year Treasury has since cooled off, from a peak of 1.77% on March 30 to about 1.57%.
"It feels to me that there is a respite right now," said Katy Kaminski, chief research strategist with AlphaSimplex. "But all it would take is for another concern about inflation to start worrying people."
Kaminski said the threat of inflation is real, and it may not be "transitory" — a word that the Federal Reserve is deploying to try to reassure investors.
She noted that a "massive" spike in the prices of several key commodities such as corn, lumber and cotton, should not be ignored.
"There will be a trickle-down effect that will take time to see, but it will impact prices for food, housing, clothing and other retail goods," she said.
Brian Henderson, chief investment officer with BOK Financial, said inflation is "the million dollar question" on the market's mind right now.
"Expectations have come down a little bit lately even in the face of strong economic growth, but the market is still super sensitive to inflation concerns," he said. "There is a risk that inflation expectations get unhinged."
More
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/16/investing/inflation-economy-bond-yields/index.html
Concerns over inflationary pressure on earnings will test stocks in the week ahead
Published Fri, Apr 16 2021 5:14 PM EDT Updated Fri, Apr 16 2021 7:02 PM EDT
Earnings will be the major focus for investors in the week ahead, as they home in on whether rising costs are squeezing margins and signaling a build in inflationary pressures.
From Coca-Cola and IBM to Johnson & Johnson and Netflix, investors will hear from a broad swath of corporate America.
So far, with one week in, companies are beating earnings estimates by a wide margin of more than 84%, according to Refinitiv.
This three-month period is the first to be compared to year earlier profits that were affected by the pandemic. Profit growth for the S&P 500 is a stunning 30.2% for the quarter so far, based on actual reports and estimates.
That makes it the best three-month period since the third quarter of 2010, according to FactSet.
---- Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, said she is watching the coming week’s earnings for signs of margin pressures from higher commodity prices, supply chain issues and other cost factors.
“Those big forces that are threatening margins right now don’t really apply to financials. They apply more to industrial companies, the material companies and consumer companies,” she said.
“I think [sectors] like the industrials will give you color on margins,” Calvasina added. “Margins really are the big question mark going forward. I’m definitely watching and listening to see what companies are going to say about taxes.”
President Joe Biden has proposed raising corporate taxes to 28% from 21% to help pay for his infrastructure plan.
While the fate of the tax hike is still not clear, the increase in other costs is apparent. Fuel costs have risen sharply with a 30% rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year. Lumber prices in the futures market are at an all-time high and copper futures are up about 17% year-to-date.
More
Wholesale inflation jumps to 8-year high
TNN | Updated: Apr 16, 2021, 09:41 IST
NEW DELHI: Wholesale price inflation soared to an eight-year ..
Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/82093366.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Global Covid Cases Hit Weekly Record Despite Vaccinations
By Jinshan HongUpdated on 19 April 2021, 03:20 BST·
· Record comes amid vaccine rollouts intended to slow new cases
More people were diagnosed with Covid-19 during the past seven days than any other week since the start of the pandemic -- topping 5.2 million globally -- with the worst outbreaks accelerating in many countries that are ill-equipped to deal with them.
The worrisome trend, just days after the world surpassed 3 million deaths, comes as countries are rolling out vaccinations in an effort to get the virus under control. The data from Johns Hopkins University showing a 12% increase in infections from a week earlier casts doubt on the hope that the end of the pandemic is in sight.
The weekly increase surpassed the previous high set in mid-December. While infection rates have largely slowed in the U.S. and U.K., countries in the developing world -- India and Brazil in particular -- are shouldering surging caseloads.
India and Brazil are the two largest contributors in driving up cases globally -- a race neither of them wants to win. Facing a sudden surge in coronavirus infections, India is once again home to the world’s second-largest outbreak, overtaking Brazil after the latter moved ahead in March. Hospitals from Mumbai to Sao Paulo are under increasing pressure as admissions continue to rise.
Serious Setbacks
But it’s not just developing nations that have seen recent setbacks in their efforts to tackle the pandemic. Rare cases of clotting seen in people who have taken vaccines made by Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca Plc have fueled the vaccine skepticism being faced by governments worldwide.
New variants of the virus have also sent infections surging further. Brazil is where one of the most potentially deadly coronavirus mutations, the P.1 variant, was identified in December. Studies suggest these strains -- along with variants first seen in South Africa and the U.K. -- are more contagious.
Revealed: Why Britain’s regulator missed the link between the AstraZeneca jab and rare blood clots
The first cases occurred in January and February but their significance was not picked up by the MHRA’s algorithms
Early in March, some four weeks after the first AstraZeneca vaccine was administered in Europe, little signals - like flares - started to go off all over the continent.
First in Austria, on March 7, and days later in Denmark, Norway and Iceland, European healthcare regulators began to report small numbers of blood clots and deaths among people who had received the vaccination.
Then on 15 March, Germany announced seven cases and three deaths and, like others, suspended use of the vaccine. The AstraZeneca jab was associated with a “striking accumulation of a special form of very rare cerebral vein thrombosis in connection with a deficiency of blood platelets and bleeding,” said the Paul-Ehrlich Institut, Germany’s renowned medicines regulator.
But in Britain, where the AstraZeneca rollout had started a full month earlier and 11 million doses had already been administered, there was nothing. On March 11, the UK's newly sovereign Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) put out a statement saying it could see no evidence of a problem.
“We continually monitor the safety of vaccines to ensure that the benefits outweigh any potential risks,” said Dr Phil Bryan, the MHRA’s Vaccines Safety Lead.
“Reports of blood clots received so far are not greater than the number that would have occurred naturally in the vaccinated population.
“The safety of the public will always come first.”
But the MHRA was, it appears, wrong. An investigation by The Telegraph has established that signals had been firing unnoticed in the UK’s Yellow Card database for at least a month, perhaps longer.
In January, a patient suffered a brain clot following their first dose of the AstraZeneca jab, The Telegraph has confirmed. Then in early February, two similar cases followed, including a death and a life-changing CVST clot in a young adult. All had low platelets and all were reported into the Yellow Card system.
On Friday, the MHRA told The Telegraph: “We are aware of thromboembolic events that occurred in January, however, our first report was received in the week commencing 8 February.... we cannot disclose information about individual cases to protect patient and reporter confidentiality.”
----Nonetheless, the MHRA faces serious questions as to why it did not detect the signals sooner. The issue is not that it has been left looking flatfooted or even that earlier detection would necessarily have altered its advice, but that the delay left it unable to shape international policy and confidence in what remains a vital vaccine in the fight against Covid 19 for the world.
Prof Stephan Lewandowsky, a psychologist at the University of Bristol studying the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, told the Financial Times on Friday: “The MHRA was slow in responding to the emergence of a specific constellation of symptoms associated with the AstraZeneca vaccine and slow to communicate what they were finding — and I am not the only one who thinks so.”
So why was the MHRA slower than others to spot the early signals? The Telegraph’s investigation suggests the issue relates to the algorithms it had in place to interrogate the UK data and its limited access to early emerging data from Europe.
More, much more.
India's capital under siege from COVID-19, seeks emergency help from federal govt
April 18, 2021 9:09 AM BST
India's capital New Delhi recorded 25,500 coronavirus cases in a 24-hour period, with about one in three people tested returning a positive result, its chief minister said, urging the federal government to urgently provide more hospital beds to tackle the crisis.
Arvind Kejriwal told a news conference the high number of cases in the capital was a concern.
"The bigger worry is that in last 24 hours positivity rate has increased to around 30% from 24%," Kejriwal said. "The cases are rising very rapidly. The beds are filling fast."
Kejriwal said intensive care unit beds are in short supply, with less than 100 left for coronavirus patients.
The grim situation can only be tackled if the federal government, the city government and the Municipal Corporation of Delhi work together, he said.
Nationwide, India reported 261,500 new cases on Sunday, taking the total number of cases to nearly 14.8 million, second only to the United States, which has reported more than 31 million infections.
The country's deaths from COVID-19 rose by a record 1,501 to reach a total of 177,150, the data showed.
Hit by the spread of more contagious variants of the disease, India is grappling with a severe shortage of oxygen supplies and critical medicines such as the anti-viral drug Remdesivir, as well as beds.
Concerned by the surge in cases, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday asked authorities to pull out all the stops to ramp up production of COVID-19 vaccines.
More
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-under-siege-covid-19-hospitals-overwhelmed-2021-04-18/
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Water purification system engineered from wood, with help from a microwave oven
Date: April 15, 2021
Source: KTH, Royal Institute of Technology
Summary: Researchers have developed a more eco-friendly way to remove heavy metals, dyes and other pollutants from water. The answer lies in filtering wastewater with a gel material taken from plant cellulose and spiked with small carbon dots produced in a microwave oven.
Researchers in Sweden have developed a more eco-friendly way to remove heavy metals, dyes and other pollutants from water. The answer lies in filtering wastewater with a gel material taken from plant cellulose and spiked with small carbon dots produced in a microwave oven.
Reporting in the journal Sustainable Materials and Technologies, researchers from KTH Royal Institute of Technology, in collaboration with Politecnico di Torino, engineered a more sustainable technique for producing hydrogel composites, a type of material that is wteidely studied for wastewater decontamination.
Minna Hakkarainen, who leads the Division of Polymer Technology at KTH Royal Institute of Technology, says that the hydrogels remove contaminants such as heavy metal ions, dyes and other common pollutants.
"The total amount of water on Earth doesn't change with time, but demand does," she says. "These all-lignocellulose hydrogels offer a promising, sustainable solution to help ensure access to clean water."
The hydrogel composites can be made from 100 percent lignocellulose, or plant matter -- the most abundant bioresource on Earth, she says.
One ingredient is cellulose gum (carboxymethyl cellulose, or CMC), a thickener and emulsion derived commonly from wood pulp or cotton processing byproducts and used in various food products, including ice cream. Added to the hydrogel are graphene oxide-like carbon dots synthesized from biomass with the help of microwave heat. The hydrogel composites are then cured with UV light, a mild process that takes place in water at room temperature.
----"Graphene oxide is a great adsorbent, but the production process is harsh," she says. "Our route is based on common bio-based raw materials and significantly milder processes with less impact on the environment."
Graphene is derived from graphite, a crystalline form of carbon that most people would recognize as the "lead" in pencils. In oxidized form it can be used in hydrogels but the oxidation process requires harsh chemicals and conditions. Synthesizing graphene from biomass often requires temperatures of up to 1300C.
By contrast, the researchers at KTH found a way to carbonize biomass at much lower temperatures. They reduced sodium lignosulfate, a byproduct from wood pulping, into carbon flakes by heating it in water in a microwave oven. The water is brought to 240C, and it is kept at that temperature for two hours.
Ultimately after a process of oxidation they produced carbon dots of about 10 to 80 nanometers in diameter, which are then mixed with the methacrylated CMC and treated with UV-light to form the hydrogel.
"This is a simple, sustainable system," Hakkarainen says. "It works as well, if not better, than hydrogel systems currently in use."
“I know not with what weapons World War III
will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
No comments:
Post a Comment