"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."

It’s back, US PPI inflation, that is. But ignore it says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. It’s only temporary, he says. Nothing to worry about, he says, he has it all under control.

Well if he says so, it must be true, right? Still when was the last/first time the Fed forecast inflation/a market crash/ a recession/a bubble?

For the foreseeable future, I’ll keep updating the Inflation Watch section. The US has already reached six trillion of new money with more to come, and now President Biden is proposing to pack the US Supreme Court. What could possibly go wrong?

S&P 500, Dow climb for third day and close at records

April 9, 2021 12:31 PM

(Reuters) -The S&P 500 and the Dow rose on Friday to close at record highs, posting a third straight weekly rise partly on a lift from growth stocks, with a late-day rally building gains ahead of quarterly earnings season next week.

Growth names have found their footing over the past two weeks after being outperformed by value stocks for most of the year. A pullback in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from a 14-month high hit in late March encouraged buying in growth.

Data showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, bringing the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years.

Many investors now expect higher inflation as vaccine rollouts help the U.S. economy rebound from lockdowns, yet stocks showed little concern as the Federal Reserve has maintained it will allow inflation to overshoot its target.

---- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 297.03 points, or 0.89%, to 33,800.6, the S&P 500 gained 31.63 points, or 0.77%, to 4,128.8 and the Nasdaq Composite added 70.88 points, or 0.51%, to 13,900.19.

For the week, the S&P rose 2.71%, the Dow advanced 1.96% and the Nasdaq climbed 3.12%.

The banks kick off first-quarter earnings season next week with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and wells Fargo scheduled to report on Wednesday. Analysts expect profits for S&P 500 firms to show a 25% jump from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv IBES data. That would be the strongest performance for the quarter since 2018.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-dow-climb-for-third-day-and-close-at-records-idUSKBN2BW1FW

Next up, more subsidies. More taxpayer gifts from the poor to the rich.

Biden plan calls for $100 billion in new EV consumer rebates

Administration wants 'to encourage people to switch to electric vehicles and efficient electric appliances'

April 8, 2021

WASHINGTON -- The Biden administration's $174 billion proposal to boost electric vehicles calls for $100 billion in new consumer rebates and $15 billion to build 500,000 new electric vehicle charging stations, according to a U.S. Transportation Department email sent to congressional staff and seen by Reuters.

The EV rebates, part of a $2.3 trillion infrastructure and jobs proposal, could be a big boost to U.S. automakers, especially General Motors and Tesla Inc., which no longer qualify for $7,500 tax credits after they sold more than 200,000 zero-emission models.

The White House declined to say how the $100 billion would be distributed or how much the grants will be.

In 2019, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer proposed awarding $392 billion in subsidies for owners to trade in gasoline-powered vehicles at least eight years old and in driving condition for EVs, plug-in hybrid or fuel-cell cars. The old vehicles would be scrapped.

The Biden plan also calls for $20 billion for electric school buses, $25 billion for zero emission transit vehicles and $14 billion in other EV tax incentives.

---- The Biden plan also calls for $80 billion for rail, including $16 billion for Amtrak's national network and $39 billion to fix the northeast corridor -- especially infrastructure in the New York City-area.

https://www.autonews.com/regulation-safety/biden-plan-calls-100-billion-new-ev-consumer-rebates

Finally, how long before there’s a lithium futures corner? From the proposed contract terms, it seems like there can’t be an actual physicals corner. But given Wall Street’s history of scandals, I’ll bet it won’t take long for someone to figure out how to successfully game the contract.

CME Seeks to Tap Electric-Car Demand With Lithium Futures

Contracts tied to the battery metal could make pricing more transparent

April 8, 2021

Commodities exchange operator CME CME -0.77% Group Inc. plans to launch a futures contract for lithium, seeking to capitalize on growing demand for a metal that helps to power electric vehicles.

The contract will be for lithium hydroxide delivered to China, South Korea and Japan, where most batteries globally are produced, CME said Thursday. If the futures contract is approved by regulators, it will begin trading on May 3.

Allowing lithium to trade freely on an exchange could help shed more light on historically opaque prices for the metal, a key ingredient in rechargeable batteries for smartphones, laptops and electric vehicles. Market participants currently rely on assessments from commodities-data trackers such as Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, S&P Global Platts and Fastmarkets.

Lithium’s role in powering rechargeable batteries has made it a strategically important commodity as governments seek to limit carbon emissions. The U.S. is racing to catch up with China in mining and refining the metal to support its auto industry and tackle climate change.

Demand for the metal is expected to boom amid efforts by governments to wean economies off fossil fuels, as well as moves by car makers including General Motors Co. GM -1.15% to unveil suites of electric vehicles. But limited visibility over prices, which are mostly set in quarterly or annual contracts, have put buyers at a disadvantage in negotiations with producers.

Spot prices for lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, the other main compound of the white metal, have risen this year due to surging demand for electric vehicles. Prices could drop in the next few months because some Chinese lithium converters are boosting production, Platts analyst Jia Hong Ong wrote in a note last week. But many analysts and investors expect prices to head higher again as a glut that weighed on the market in recent years dissipates.

CME’s contract will initially be used by car makers, battery manufacturers and other companies to lock in prices for future lithium deliveries, said Young-Jin Chang, head of metals at the exchange operator. Later, investors may trade the futures to bet on the direction of lithium prices.

---- The contract won’t be for delivery of actual lithium hydroxide. Instead, buyers and sellers will exchange the difference between the futures price and an assessment of prices in the physical lithium market by U.K.-based Fastmarkets when contracts expire.

Opting for lithium hydroxide marks a bet by CME that auto makers will shift toward longer-range batteries that harness the compound. Lithium carbonate, in contrast, is used in cheaper batteries.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cme-seeks-to-tap-electric-car-demand-with-lithium-futures-11617899631?mod=mhp

"Government does not solve problems. It subsidizes them."

President Ronald Reagan.

Inflation Watch.

More money poured into stocks in past five months than over last 12 years: BofA

April 9, 2021 10:51 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - Investors have pumped more money into equities over the past five months than in the last 12 years, BofA’s weekly flow figures showed on Friday, as ultra-easy monetary policies and unprecedented stimulus has sparked a secular shift into stocks.

BofA said $576 billion had gone into equity funds in the past five months, beating the combined $452 billion inflows seen in the last 12 years,

Based on clients’ asset allocations, Bofa said a record 63.6% of the money was invested in stocks, 18.5% in debt and 11.6% in cash.

The exuberance has however slowed in recent weeks, with investors pouring $22.7 billion into cash during the week to Wednesday, on top of the nearly $100 billion committed in the last two weeks.

https://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSKBN2BW15S

U.S. producer inflation heats up in March as prices increase broadly

April 9, 2021 2:17 PM By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years and likely marking the start of higher inflation as the economy reopens amid an improved public health environment and massive government aid.

The report from the Labor Department on Friday also showed solid gains in underlying producer prices last month. That aligned with business surveys showing rising cost pressures as strengthening domestic demand pushes against supply constraints.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday reiterated that he believed the expected rise in inflation will be transitory and that supply chains will adapt and become more efficient. Most economists agree, citing considerable slack in the labor market.

“Beyond temporary effects, inflation is unlikely to keep accelerating given ample slack in the labor market,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York.

The producer price index for final demand jumped 1.0% last month as costs increased across the board. The PPI rose 0.5% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PPI surged 4.2%. That was the biggest year-on-year rise since September 2011 and followed a 2.8% advance in February.

---- Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would increase 0.5% in March and jump 3.8% on a year-on-year basis. The PPI report was delayed after the Bureau of Labor Statistics website crashed. The BLS, the Labor Department’s statistics agency, said it was looking into the problem with the website.

Goods prices soared 1.7%, accounting for almost 60% of the increase in the PPI last month. That was the biggest increase since December 2009 and followed a 1.4% rise in February. Prices for services shot up 0.7% after gaining 0.1% in February.

---- The government has provided nearly $6 trillion in relief since the pandemic started in the United States in March 2020, while the Fed has slashed its benchmark overnight interest rate to near zero and is pumping money into the economy through monthly bond purchases.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-inflation/u-s-producer-inflation-heats-up-in-march-as-prices-increase-broadly-idUSKBN2BW1Q8

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

J&J Covid Vaccine Reviewed by EU Regulator After Clots

By Naomi Kresge

9 April 2021, 12:40 BST Corrected 9 April 2021, 13:50 BST

· Safety review follows concerns involving AstraZeneca shot

· Four cases of clots, one fatality identified by regulator

The European Union’s drug regulator said it has started a review to assess blood clots in people who received Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine.

Four serious cases of unusual clots accompanied by low blood platelets, one of which was fatal, have emerged after vaccination with the J&J shot, the European Medicines Agency said Friday. The move turns the regulator’s safety scrutiny on a second Covid shot, after AstraZeneca Plc’s vaccine was possibly linked to a rare blood-clotting disorder.

One of the cases following J&J vaccinations happened during a clinical trial. At the time, the company said it had found no evidence the vaccine was at fault. Three others occurred in the U.S., where the shot has been given to almost 5 million people.

Though J&J’s vaccine is approved in the EU, its rollout in the bloc isn’t expected to start until later this month. Still, the EU is relying on the one-shot vaccine to boost its immunization drive amid restrictions in some countries on use of the AstraZeneca shot, which is delivered in two doses.

Separately, the regulator said it doesn’t yet have enough evidence to approve the Russian Sputnik V vaccine.

J&J representatives didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment. The drugmaker’s vaccine uses similar technology to both the AstraZeneca shot as well as Sputnik.

The Food and Drug Administration didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/eu-regulator-investigating-blood-clots-after-j-j-covid-vaccine?srnd=premium-europe

'This is war': Polish medics just taking naps between COVID shifts

April 9, 2021 8:46 AM

WARSAW (Reuters) -Some Polish doctors and nurses are just taking naps between shifts as they fight a third wave of the coronavirus, the health minister said on Friday, amid reports of medical staff using oxygen and intravenous drips to boost their energy.

The country of 38 million, the largest in the European Union’s eastern wing, report 768 coronavirus-related deaths on Friday, after the number of deaths hit a new record of 954 on Thursday.

“This is indeed a war and the situation requires non-standard behaviours,” he told private radio RMF 24.

“These are the toughest, the most difficult pictures, which reflect the burden of this work,” Niedzielski said when asked to comment on some doctors’ using drips and oxygen to regain strength to work.

“When I visited a temporary hospital in Katowice I saw doctors and nurses sleeping to rest in between their shifts. The intensity of work is significant, which results from the deficit of personnel,” Niedzielski said.

Poland reported record high numbers of new cases last week at around 35,000 a day and on Wednesday the government extended restrictions until April 18, keeping kindergartens, schools, shopping centres, hotels, cinemas and theatres closed.

The previous 24-hour death record was 674, reported in November. On Friday Poland reported 28,487 new coronavirus infections, bringing the total to more than 2.5 million.

“If we look at the course of the number of new infections, it seems that the apogee of infections is behind us,” Niedzielski told a press conference, warning against complacency.

“The pandemic is still a real threat and the fact that we see some slight falls is absolutely not a signal which would allow us to think that we have the worst behind... Now we will have to do with an apogee, so to say, in hospitals,” he said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-poland/this-is-war-polish-medics-just-taking-naps-between-covid-shifts-idUSKBN2BW0W8

WHO Sees Pandemic on Wrong Path; Korean Wave: Virus Update

Bloomberg News

9 April 2021, 22:21 BST Updated on 10 April 2021, 04:45 BST

The pandemic is on the wrong trajectory after six straight weeks of increased cases, according to a World Health Organization officer, who said “vaccines will not end the pandemic.”

South Korea’s president will hold an urgent meeting on Monday with the country’s top health officials, Yonhap News reported, after authorities warned the country is in the early stage of another wave of infections. Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE said they would ask regulators in the U.S. and elsewhere to allow use of their vaccine in adolescents ages 12 to 15.

The European Union’s drug regulator has started a review to assess blood clots in people who received Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine. A Johns Hopkins University professor said AstraZeneca Plc’s shot is still safe “overall” even as some countries limit its use.

Key Developments:

Global Tracker: Cases pass 134.5 million; deaths 2.9 million
Vaccine Tracker: More than 748 million shots given worldwide
WHO chief says political will missing for equitable vaccination
Europe finds some rare successes in its struggle to defeat Covid
China’s bid to ramp up vaccinations hindered by supply shortages

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/michigan-seeks-aid-amid-surge-eu-reviews-j-j-shot-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus

Vaccine rollout in England prevented 10,400 deaths by end-March, study says

April 8, 2021 10:38 PM Updated 9 hours ago

LONDON (Reuters) - England’s fast rollout of COVID-19 vaccines prevented over 10,000 deaths of people aged 60 and older by the end of March, according to an analysis by Public Health England.

England experienced a peak in infections, hospitalisations and deaths in January, but the toll would have been even worse without the rapid vaccination programme that began on Dec. 8, according to the study.

Over 15 million doses of vaccine were given to adults aged 60 and over in England by the end of March, preventing an estimated 10,400 deaths, mostly among those aged 80 and over, Public Health England said.

The analysis compared the reported number of deaths up to the March period with the number that would have been expected had vaccines not been delivered at that time.

Close to 127,000 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID-19 in the United Kingdom.

The vaccination campaign accelerated in March. A total of 31.8 million people across the United Kingdom have had at least one dose, while 6.1 million people have had two.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccines/vaccine-rollout-in-england-prevented-10400-deaths-by-end-march-study-says-idUSKBN2BV32H?feedType=mktg&feedName=&WT.mc_id=Newsletter-UK&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018%20Template:%20UK%20MORNING%20DIGEST%202021-04-09&utm_term=NEW:%20UK%20Morning%20Digest

Next, some very useful vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

FDA information. https://www.fda.gov/media/139638/download

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some more useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards.

Graphene: Everything under control in a quantum material

Date: April 8, 2021

Source: Bielefeld University

Summary: In a new study, a team of researchers demonstrates that graphene's nonlinearity can be very efficiently controlled by applying comparatively modest electrical voltages to the material.

How can large amounts of data be transferred or processed as quickly as possible? One key to this could be graphene. The ultra-thin material is only one atomic layer thick, and the electrons it contains have very special properties due to quantum effects. It could therefore be very well suited for use in high-performance electronic components. Up to this point, however, there has been a lack of knowledge about how to suitably control certain properties of graphene. A new study by a team of scientists from Bielefeld and Berlin, together with researchers from other research institutes in Germany and Spain, is changing this. The team's findings have been published in the journal Science Advances.

Consisting of carbon atoms, graphene is a material just one atom thick where the atoms are arranged in a hexagonal lattice. This arrangement of atoms is what results in graphene's unique property: the electrons in this material move as if they did not have mass. This "massless" behavior of electrons leads to very high electrical conductivity in graphene and, importantly, this property is maintained at room temperature and under ambient conditions. Graphene is therefore potentially very interesting for modern electronics applications.

It was recently discovered that the high electronic conductivity and "massless" behavior of its electrons allows graphene to alter the frequency components of electric currents that pass through it. This property is highly dependent on how strong this current is. In modern electronics, such a nonlinearity comprises one of the most basic functionalities for switching and processing of electrical signals. What makes graphene unique is that its nonlinearity is by far the strongest of all electronic materials. Moreover, it works very well for exceptionally high electronic frequencies, extending into the technologically important terahertz (THz) range where most conventional electronic materials fail.

In their new study, the team of researchers from Germany and Spain demonstrated that graphene's nonlinearity can be very efficiently controlled by applying comparatively modest electrical voltages to the material. For this, the researchers manufactured a device resembling a transistor, where a control voltage could be applied to graphene via a set of electrical contacts. Then, ultrahigh-frequency THz signals were transmitted using the device: the transmission and subsequent transformation of these signals were then analyzed in relation to the voltage applied. The researchers found that graphene becomes almost perfectly transparent at a certain voltage -- its normally strong nonlinear response nearly vanishes. By slightly increasing or lowering the voltage from this critical value, graphene can be turned into a strongly nonlinear material, significantly altering the strength and the frequency components of the transmitted and remitted THz electronic signals.

"This is a significant step forward towards implementation of graphene in electrical signal processing and signal modulation applications," says Prof. Dmitry Turchinovich, a physicist at Bielefeld University and one of the heads of this study. "Earlier we had already demonstrated that graphene is by far the most nonlinear functional material we know of. We also understand the physics behind nonlinearity, which is now known as thermodynamic picture of ultrafast electron transport in graphene. But until now we did not know how to control this nonlinearity, which was the missing link with respect to using graphene in everyday technologies."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210408131501.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

This weekend’s musical diversion. Italian Boccherini’s Spanish Fandango. Approx. 9 minutes.

Boccherini-Quintetto n. 4 G 448 - Fandango (III-parte II)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLOmwmwPMxY

This weekend’s chess masterpiece. Approx. 13 minutes.

Forced. Mate. in. 10!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9_aQyHdfdk

This weekend’s maths masterclass. Approx. 26 minutes.

Why don't they teach this simple visual solution? (Lill's method)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUC-8P0zXe8

"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

President Ronald Reagan.

London Irvine Report

Pages

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Saturday, 10 April 2021

Special Update 10/04/2021 Six Trillion And Rising.

S&P 500, Dow climb for third day and close at records