By Reuters Staff
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain looks
set to see faster economic growth than the United States this year as the
country races ahead with its vaccination programme after its slump in 2020,
Goldman Sachs said on Sunday.
The bank said in a note to clients
that it now expects British gross domestic product to grow by a “striking” 7.8%
this year, “above our expectations for the U.S.”
A Reuters poll of analysts published
on April 13 showed an average forecast for growth of 5.0% in the UK, the
world’s fifth-biggest economy in 2021. The International Monetary Fund has
projected a 5.3% expansion.
But since those forecasts were made
there have been signs of an acceleration in the pace of recovery with the
country now having given a first coronavirus vaccine to more than half of its
total population.
“The UK economy is rebounding
sharply from the Covid crisis,” Goldman Sachs said.
“The April flash PMI was much
stronger than expected in the UK, with the services PMI moving strongly further
into expansionary territory,” it said.
The bank also noted a
much-stronger-than-expected 5.4% monthly jump in retail sales in March.
The note did not provide a
comparison forecast for U.S. economic growth this year. In February, Goldman
said it expected U.S. GDP would grow by 6.8% in 2021 as President Joe Biden
pushed ahead with a huge fiscal stimulus programme.
Britain’s economy shrank by nearly
10% last year as it was hit by longer coronavirus lockdowns than many of its
peers. By comparison, the U.S. economy shrank by an estimated 3.5%, according
to the IMF.
On Saturday, Bank of England Deputy
Governor Ben Broadbent was quoted as saying he expected “very rapid growth at
least over the next couple of quarters” as the country lifts its coronavirus
restrictions.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-economy/uk-economy-set-to-grow-faster-than-the-u-s-this-year-goldman-idUSKBN2CC0LG
Global Inflation Watch. Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our
spendthrift politicians, inflation now
needs an entire section of its own.
Apartment Rents Rise; Perks,
Discounts Fade Covid-19 vaccine
rollout, higher employment bring more people back into cities looking to rent April 24, 2021 5:30 am ET
Americans are paying more to rent homes again, ending a
stretch during the pandemic when they enjoyed flat or falling rental prices and widespread
landlord concessions.
Federal government stimulus payments and expanding payrolls
are boosting savings, enabling building managers to lift rent prices on
apartments and houses nationwide. A record-low inventory of homes for sale also leaves more
people renting.
Median asking rent rose 1.1% on an annual basis in March to
$1,463 a month across the country’s 50 largest markets, according to a report
from Realtor.com. That marked the first month where the pace of rent growth had
increased since last summer, the report showed.
The Covid-19 vaccine rollout and rising employment are
prompting more people to move back into cities and look for apartments to rent,
which is helping landlords fill their empty apartments with fewer, if any,
freebies.
Landlords in much of the country had cut asking rents
during the pandemic. Many also offered concessions—from one or two months of
free rent to American Express gift cards—to keep tenants in their buildings
during Covid-19. Many renters, especially in large cities, stopped renewing
their leases. They left to buy homes , or if they lost jobs, to move in with
friends or family.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/apartment-rents-rise-perks-discounts-fade-11619256601?mod=hp_lead_pos2
U.S. Existing-Home Prices Climb
on Tight Supply Limited
availability of homes on the market in March pushed prices to the highest level
on record Updated April 22, 2021 1:12 pm ET
The relentless climb in U.S. home prices and tightening
supply threaten to cool the hottest housing market in 15 years, sending
frustrated home buyers to the sidelines.
The median price for existing home sales rose to $329,100
in March, a new high according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices
soared 17.2% last month from a year earlier, marking the biggest price increase
in NAR data going back to 1999.
Steepening prices, combined with a scarcity of inventory
that has left the U.S. housing market millions of homes short of buyer demand
NAR said Thursday that existing-home sales dropped 3.7% in
March from February, the second straight month of sales declines.
The supply constraints are creating a fiercely competitive
bidding climate where homes are sitting on the market for shorter periods than
ever before. The typical home that sold in March spent only 18 days on the
market, the fastest pace on record, NAR said.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-march-existing-home-sales-drop-on-tight-supply-11619100759?mod=article_inline
The Grocery Price Shock Is Coming
to a Store Near You Megan Durisin and
Deirdre Hipwell
April 24, 2021
(Bloomberg) -- Corn, wheat, soybeans, vegetable oils: A
small handful of commodities form the backbone of much of the world’s diet and
they’re dramatically more expensive, flashing alarm signals for global shopping
budgets.
This week, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index
— which tracks key farm products — surged the most in almost nine
years, driven by a rally in crop futures. With global food prices already at
the highest since mid-2014, this latest jump is being closely watched because
staple crops are a ubiquitous influence on grocery shelves — from bread
and pizza dough to meat and even soda.
Soaring raw material prices have broad repercussions for
households and businesses, and threaten a world economy trying
to recover from the damage of the coronavirus pandemic. They help
fuel food inflation, bringing more pain for families that are already grappling
with financial pressure from the loss of jobs or incomes. For central banks, a
spike in prices at a time of weak growth creates an unwelcome policy choice and
could limit their ability to loosen policy.
“There seems to be sort of a bullish force behind the
prices internationally,” Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the United
Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, said in an interview. “The indications
are that there is very little reason to believe prices would remain at these
levels. It’s more likely they will rise further. Hardship is still ahead.”
Emerging markets , in some cases already under pressure from
weaker currencies, are particularly vulnerable because food costs make up a
larger share of their spending. For the poorest and often politically unstable
countries, the surge in raw materials threatens to further stoke global hunger .
“The relentless rise in prices acts as a misery multiplier,
driving millions deeper into hunger and desperation,” Chris Nikoi, the World
Food Programme’s regional director for West Africa, said earlier this month.
It’s “pushing a basic meal beyond the reach of millions of poor families who
were already struggling to get by.”
The most recent crop spikes follow months of price gains
fueled by booming import demand from China. Corn prices
have doubled in the past year, while soybeans are up about 80% and
wheat 30%. With China’s purchases continuing and a spate of adverse
weather conditions threatening crops in Brazil and the U.S., there are
few signs of respite. Analysts including those at Rabobank, Mintec and
HSBC Global Research all see a risk of even higher prices as a result,
though it will vary across markets.
----The threat of food inflation is making governments
nervous. Russia, one of the world’s top grain exporters, has ordered a freeze
on some retail food prices while taking steps to curb shipments. Bolivia has temporarily banned exports of beef to safeguard
supplies at home and put a lid on prices.
Overall, global food costs have surged
for 10 straight months, the longest rally in more than a decade,
according to a UN gauge. The surge is stirring memories of 2008 and 2011,
when spikes led to food riots in more than 30 nations across Africa, Asia and
the Middle East, and contributed to political strife and uprisings in the Arab
Spring.
Even in rich nations, where food is a smaller
percentage of overall consumer spending, changes to some bills could be coming.
In Europe, for example, the time lag between rising commodity prices and higher
shelf prices is typically six months, according to OC&C Strategy
Consultants. Retailers and manufacturers often use various techniques to soften
the blow for consumers, including cutting the depth of promotions or reducing the size of products while keeping prices
unchanged.
“Once the big commodities, like wheat, sugar, bulk oils,
start rising in price for a sustained period of time manufacturers have little
choice but to pass those higher costs on,” said Will Hayllar , London-based managing partner at
OC&C.
And commodities aren’t the only component in driving up the
price of food. Higher freight costs and other supply-chain headaches as well as
packaging can all add up. Food and beverage giants are already signaling
they’re watching margins. Coca-Cola Co. has flagged higher costs in plastic and
aluminum, as well as coffee and high-fructose corn syrup, the key ingredient in
soda. Nestle SA, the world’s biggest food company, warned it won’t be able to
hedge all of its commodity costs and it’s raising prices where appropriate.
“This is a very volatile environment right now, very low
visibility, lots of surprise,” Nestle Chief Executive Mark Schneider said this
week on a call with analysts. “We will take pricing action.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-grocery-price-shock-is-coming-to-a-store-near-you/ar-BB1fZDaC
Covid-19 Corner This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
U.S. allows exports of COVID-19
vaccine materials to hard-hit India April 25, 2021 / 5:28 PM
April 25 (UPI) -- The Biden administration on Sunday announced it is allowing exports
of raw materials needed by India to make a COVID-19 vaccine
as it faces an exponential surge in deaths and new cases.
The United States has located supplies of materials
necessary for India to ramp up its production of its homegrown Covishield vaccine
and will immediately make them available to the beleaguered South Asian nation,
National Security Council spokeswoman Emily Horne said in an issued statement .
The move was announced after National Security Advisor Jake
Sullivan spoke by phone with Indian counterpart Ajit Doval about the worsening
pandemic conditions in his country, which Sunday set a world record for most infections in a singe day at nearly
350,000.
The decision represents a partial lifting of a U.S. ban
against exporting raw materials needed to make vaccines. The administration
last week refused to rescind the ban even as reports of overwhelmed
hospitals, oxygen shortages and mass cremation sites in India circulated around
the world.
Britain and China previously had pledged aid to India, and
the European Union joined the United States Sunday in making similar
commitments.
"Alarmed by the epidemiological situation in
India," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted after the bloc activated its Emergency Response
Coordination Center to provide oxygen and medicine to India.
Horne said the United States has also identified supplies of
therapeutics, rapid diagnostic test kits, ventilators, and personal protective
equipment that will immediately be made available for India.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2021/04/25/US-allows-exports-of-COVID-19-vaccine-materials-to-hard-hit-India/7331619381928/
Covid-19 Case Cluster Linked to
One Flight Stirs Debate Among Health Experts A third of the
passengers on plane from New Delhi to Hong Kong tested positive, highlighting
the risks of pandemic travel Updated April 24, 2021 11:38 pm ET
HONG KONG—Rashida Fathima’s anxiety levels spiked as she
boarded the red-eye flight from New Delhi to Hong Kong with her family.
Covid-19 cases were surging in India
Within two weeks of landing, Mrs. Fathima, her husband and
two children tested positive for the coronavirus at their quarantine hotel.
More than a third of the passengers on flight UK6395—52 so far—have tested
positive, the most from any plane arriving in the city. The cluster is stirring
debate among health experts in Hong Kong over how they got infected, and
highlights the struggle facing the aviation industry
Speaking from the hospital, Mrs. Fathima said she feared
her family picked up the infections on the April 3 journey, despite wearing
masks almost the entire time and avoiding using the restrooms on board.
Some passengers—including one in the same row—coughed
repeatedly during the six-hour flight, people took masks off to eat, and some
parents walked their crying children up and down the aisle, she said.
The airline and the organizers of the chartered flight told
The Wall Street Journal that they did everything possible to minimize potential
transmission.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-case-cluster-linked-to-one-flight-stirs-debate-among-health-experts-11619262004?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
The mRNA revolution: How COVID-19
hit fast-forward on an experimental technology By Rich Haridy April 22, 2021
Over
the past few months several hundred million people around the world have safely
received a wildly effective COVID-19 vaccine based on mRNA technology that was
still relatively experimental just one year ago. But what exactly is an mRNA
vaccine, where did the technology come from, and what other diseases could it
be useful for?
Despite the seemingly sudden appearance of this
cutting-edge mRNA technology it is, like many scientific innovations, actually
the product of decades of piecemeal research. mRNA was first discovered around
60 years ago after scientists worked for years trying to understand how DNA
co-ordinated protein production in cells.
Inside all living cells are tiny protein-making factories
called ribosomes. These factories make whatever proteins they are directed to
produce, and those directions come from mRNA molecules.
For decades scientists suggested it
was hypothetically possible to hijack this mechanism and deliver artificially
designed mRNA to a cell, instructing it to generate whatever protein one
wanted. But the idea was science fiction until several discoveries in the 1980s
finally made it possible.
Of course, once scientists started
experimenting with their own forms of mRNA they discovered a new roadblock.
Immune systems are clever. They are well geared to detect foreign bodies trying
to infiltrate the body, and early animal studies revealed synthetic mRNA
triggered profoundly fatal inflammatory responses.
Across the 1990s mRNA technology sat
on the fringes of science, with many researchers suspecting the immune problem
was insurmountable, but in 2005 biochemist Katalin Karikó published an
extraordinary breakthrough. After toiling for well over a decade, she and
colleague Drew Weissman demonstrated a small molecular tweak to synthetic mRNA
that could allow it to evade immune defenses, slip inside a cell and send its
message to the protein factories.
This ground-breaking discovery
ultimately led to the founding of a pair of now well-known biotech companies,
Moderna and BioNTech. But the ongoing research continued to strike hurdles.
Karikó’s innovative discovery seemed to avoid triggering immune responses in
animals when delivering low doses of synthetic mRNA, but any kind of ongoing
administration with larger doses still triggered dangerous inflammatory
reactions.
---- Alongside all of these innovations, nanoparticle research was
accelerating in the 2010s, and this introduced a perfect solution to another
problem facing mRNA researchers. mRNA molecules are fundamentally built to be
temporary. They get inside a cell, deliver the necessary message, and then
quickly degrade.
So, synthetic mRNA needs to be
encapsulated inside something else to remain protected while it moves from
factory to fridge to human cell. The solution came with the development of
novel lipid nanoparticles. These nanoparticles protect the mRNA from
degradation while also effectively slipping through a cell’s wall, helping
deliver the mRNA right to the door of the cell’s protein factory.
All of these innovations and
discoveries helped pave the way for mRNA technology to be uniquely ready for
what was going to strike the world last year.
More
https://newatlas.com/science/mrna-revolution-vaccine-covid-therapy-pandemic-future-cancer/
“It is hard for us,
without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of
reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of those [CDS] transactions.”
Joseph J. Cassano, a
former A.I.G. executive, August 2007, on Credit Default Swaps that wiped out
A.I.G in 2008.
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