Baltic Dry Index. 2072 +26 Brent Crude 62.62
Spot Gold 1736
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 06/04/21 World 132,423,821
Deaths 2,873,801
I am in favor of cutting taxes under any circumstances and for any excuse, for any reason, whenever it's possible. ... because I believe the big problem is not taxes, the big problem is spending.
Milton Friedman.
In stock casino land, mountains of newly created cash continue to push stock prices higher. That all the Magic Money Tree stock inflation ends badly is a given, but when is key.
Does the coming Biden US corporate tax hike provide the trigger? The coming Yellen/IMF universal minimum corporate taxes?
Stocks gain on U.S. recovery prospects but dollar pauses for breath
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A U.S. auto industry group on Monday urged the government to help as it warned the global semiconductor shortage could result in 1.28 million fewer vehicles built this year and disrupt production for another six months.
The U.S. Commerce Department should dedicate a portion of funding in a proposed bill to expand U.S. semiconductor production to auto sector needs, the Alliance for Auto Innovation said in written responses to a government-initiated review.
U.S President Joe Biden in February ordered several Federal agency actions to address the chip crisis and is also seeking $37 billion in funding for legislation to supercharge chip manufacturing in the United States.
Some funding should “be used to build new capacity that will support the auto industry and mitigate the risks to the automotive supply chain evidenced by the current chip shortage,” the group’s chief executive, John Bozzella, wrote.
The group said the U.S. government could specify “a particular percentage – that is reasonably based on the projected needs of the auto industry – be allocated for facilities that will support the production of auto grade chips in some manner.”
The group represents nearly all major automakers with factories in the United States including General Motors Co, Ford Motor Co, Volkswagen AG, Toyota Motor Corp and Hyundai Motor Co.
Automakers have been hit particularly hard by the global chip shortage after many cancelled orders when auto plants were idled during the coronavirus pandemic.
When they were ready to recommence production, they found that chipmakers were busy fulfilling orders for the consumer electronics industry which as seen demand for premium devices - both for work and leisure - boom as people spent more time at home.
Most automakers have been hit by the shortage. In recent announcements, Ford said last week it would cut output at seven North American assembly plants, while Kia Motors said it was cutting two days of production in Georgia.
Subaru to temporarily shut its plant due to chip shortage
April 5, 2021 8:25 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s Subaru Corp said on Monday that the automaker will shut its Yajima plant between April 10 and 27 due to a chip shortage, affecting 10,000 vehicles.
Subaru will restart all production lines at the Yajima plant in Gunma Prefecture from May 10, it said in a statement. It added that the impact on the group’s financial results is uncertain.
The production halt is caused by a global shortages of semiconductors and is not linked to a fire that hit chipmaker Renesas Electronics Corp, a Subaru spokeswoman said.
The Yajima plant manufactures some of the automaker’s popular models, including Legacy sedan and Forester SUV.
In Greensill scandal news, German individuals at least will get some, if not all of their “deposits” back. Municipalities and institutional investors are not so lucky.
In most jurisdictions of the world, a bank “deposit” is not actually a deposit to a bank, it’s more closely an unsecured loan. Hence the need for “deposit guarantee schemes” to protect in whole or part, individuals when banks go bust.
Greensill Bank customers get $3 billion in deposit protection scheme
April 5, 2021 9:02 AM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Germany’s banking private banking association said on Monday that it had paid out around 2.7 billion euros ($3.17 billion) to more than 20,500 Greensill Bank customers as part of its deposit guarantee scheme after the bank collapsed last month.
The banking association said only a few customers had yet to receive compensation under the protection fund, which protects individuals but not institutional investors.
Finally, two interesting articles held over from last week. The best laid plans of mice and men comes to mind.
Biden’s Rust Belt revival plan risks luring more foreign steel
Apr 02, 2021
Arguably the biggest beneficiaries of President Joe Biden’s plan to spend $620 billion on highways, roads and bridges are the steelmakers.
The Brazilian ones, that is. And the Korean ones. And the Vietnamese and Taiwanese ones. But not so much the once-mighty American steelmakers that Biden — and Donald Trump before him — pledged to revive.
American steel is too expensive for that — $300 a ton more expensive, based on estimates from Bloomberg and Kallanish Commodities. So expensive that two ships hauled thousands of tons of steel coils from Vietnam and Taiwan to the port of Houston last week, while U.S. Steel Corp.’s Big River Steel complex — a mere 10-hour drive from the port — makes the exact same coil.
“Shipments are booked, chartered and rolling,” Anton Posner, chief executive officer of supply-chain engagement and consulting company Mercury Resources, said in a phone interview. “We’re seeing a pickup on steel shipments from Southeast Asia, and it’s all demand driven.”
The flood of imports illustrates how hard it will be for Biden to restore America’s Rust Belt to its glory days, even after proposing what could amount to the biggest windfall for steelmakers since the construction of the interstate highway system. And after sky-high costs to shut down furnaces during the pandemic, mills are reluctant to expand. They’re more focused on profiting from record prices while they can.
There’s no question Biden’s stimulus will boost U.S. growth. In anticipation of the package, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development earlier this month more than doubled its 2021 growth forecast for the U.S. to 6.5%. It’s just not clear how effective it will be in helping the Rust Belt in a way that would benefit millions of Americans who’ve for years felt left out of the country’s growing prosperity. Roughly 110,000 steelworkers have lost their livelihoods since 1990, with a nearly 7% drop in steel jobs since the pandemic started.
More
China’s Commodities Binge Makes America’s Future More Expensive
The U.S. spending plan faces a big problem: Beijing got to all the raw materials first.
April 1, 2021, 12:01 AM EDT
Fresh from passing a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday turned his attention to a similarly vast package of investment in infrastructure, and that means the U.S. is going to need more commodities. There’s just one problem: China.
America requires steel, cement, and tarmacadam for roads and bridges, and cobalt, lithium, and rare earths for batteries. Above all, it needs copper—and lots of it. Copper will go into the electric vehicles that President Biden has said he’ll buy for the government fleet, in the charging stations to power them, and in the cables connecting new wind turbines and solar farms to the grid. But when it comes to these commodities—and copper in particular—Washington is one step behind Beijing.
China was the first place the coronavirus struck, but it was also the first country in the world to start recovering from the pandemic. As the rest of the world went into lockdown and commodity prices plunged in March and April 2020, China went on a buying spree. Chinese manufacturers, traders, and even the government approached the global commodity markets much as a shopaholic might approach a fire sale.
“They bought a lot last year, and I don’t believe it was solely for their industrial needs,” says David Lilley, a veteran copper trader who is managing director of U.K.-based Drakewood Capital Management. “It was also about building the strategic reserves of copper needed for their plans.”
China imported 6.7 million tons of unwrought copper last year, a third more than the previous year and a full 1.4 million tons more than the previous annual record. (The year-on-year increase, alone, is equivalent in scale to the entire annual copper consumption of the U.S.) Traders and analysts reckon that China’s powerful and secretive State Reserve Bureau bought somewhere from 300,000 to 500,000 tons of copper during the price slump.
That already looks to have been a smart trade. In part thanks to China’s buying, copper prices have doubled from their March 2020 nadir to current levels around $9,000 a ton. But some reckon copper and other commodities have much further to run. The combination of rebounding global growth and government largesse has bulls fired up. Wall Street analysts enthuse about a new commodities “supercycle”—a period of above-trend prices driven by a structural shift in demand, comparable to the China-led boom of the 2000s or the period of global growth following World War II.
More
We have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidizes nonwork.
Milton Friedman.
And the was before we found the Magic Money Tree forest.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Double mutant’ COVID-19 strain emerges in California
By Natalie Musumeci April 5, 2021
A new “double mutant” variant of the coronavirus has been discovered in California, with scientists worrying the strain could be more infectious.
The Stanford Clinical Virology Lab identified and confirmed one case of the variant — which first emerged in India — in the Bay Area, Stanford Health Care spokesperson Lisa Kim told the San Francisco Chronicle Sunday.
Seven other presumptive cases are also being screened by Stanford.
The emerging strain is called the “double mutant” because it carries two mutations in the virus that helps it latch onto cells, the news outlet reported.
The “double mutant” variant has been found in 20 percent of cases sequenced from India’s hard-hit state of Maharashtra, where coronavirus cases have surged more than 50 percent in the past week, noted Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
It is not yet known whether this new COVID-19 variant is more infectious or resistant to the coronavirus vaccine, but Chin-Hong said it “makes sense” that it could be more transmissible.
“It also makes sense that it will be more transmissible from a biological perspective as the two mutations act at the receptor-binding domain of the virus, but there have been no official transmission studies to date,” he told the San Francisco Chronicle.
One of the variant’s mutations is similar to one found on the coronavirus variants first detected in Brazil and South Africa, and the other mutation is also found in a variant first detected in California, Chin-Hong added.
More
https://nypost.com/2021/04/05/double-mutant-covid-19-strain-emerges-in-california/
Japan fears COVID-19 variants are behind possible fourth wave
April 5, 2021 9:45 AM By Rocky Swift
TOKYO (Reuters) -Japanese health authorities are concerned that variants of the coronavirus are driving a nascent fourth wave in the pandemic with just 109 days remaining until the Tokyo Olympics.
The variants appear to be more infectious and may be resistant to vaccines, which are still not widely available in Japan. The situation is worst in Osaka, where infections hit fresh records last week, prompting the regional government to start targeted lockdown measures for one month from Monday.
A mutant COVID-19 variant first discovered in Britain has taken hold in the Osaka region, spreading faster and filling up hospital beds with more serious cases than the original virus, according to Koji Wada, a government adviser on the pandemic.
“The fourth wave is going to be larger,” said Wada, a professor at Tokyo’s International University of Health and Welfare. “We need to start to discuss how we could utilize these targeted measures for the Tokyo area.”
Japan has twice declared a state of emergency that covered most of the country in the past year, most recently just after New Year as the pandemic’s third and most deadly wave struck. Officials are now opting for more targeted measures that allow local governments to shorten business hours and impose fines for noncompliance.
Osaka city cancelled Olympic Torch relay events there, but Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has insisted Japan will carry out the Games as scheduled. Suga said on Sunday that measures employed in the Osaka area could be expanded to Tokyo and elsewhere if needed.
There were 249 new infections in Tokyo on Monday, still well below the peak of over 2,500 in January. In Osaka, the tally was 341, down from a record 666 cases on Saturday.
The true extent of the mutant cases is unknown, as only a small fraction of positive COVID-19 cases undergo the genomic study necessary to find the variants.
More
Covid Mutants Multiply as Scientists Race to Decode Variations
By Robert Langreth5 April 2021, 10:00 BST
· Genomic data on infections floods computers compiling evidence
· Mutant called D614G started off cascade of covid variants
When Bette Korber, a biologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, spotted the first significant mutation in the Covid-19 virus last spring, some scientists were skeptical. They didn’t believe it would make the virus more contagious and said its rapid rise might just be coincidence.
Now, 11 months later, the D614G mutation she helped discover is ubiquitous worldwide, featured in the genomes of fast-spreading variants from the U.K., South Africa and Brazil. Meanwhile, new mutations are popping up in increasingly complicated patterns, spurring a drive by top biologists to devise new ways to track a fire hose of incoming genomic data.
The goal: Quickly detect variants that can lessen the effectiveness of vaccines for a pathogen that’s unlikely to be eradicated any time soon. The SARS-CoV-2 virus could settle down and become a mere nuisance like the common cold. Or much like influenza, it could retain its ability to cause severe disease in some segments of the population, a scenario that could require regular booster shots.
“By watching it carefully, we can stay ahead of the virus and that is what everyone is scrambling to do right now,” said Korber, who is working to create new mathematical tools for spotting medically significant variants.
The flood of new genome data is so great that the Los Alamos lab had to upgrade its servers to deal with the incoming data. Meanwhile, Korber is on four Zoom calls a week with experts worldwide to devise criteria for deciding when mutations are concerning enough to merit detailed laboratory follow-up on how they may impact vaccines.
A key mystery plumbed early-on by top scientists has been what type of virus the coronavirus will prove to be. So far, it looks more similar to influenza, which shape-shifts all the time and requires annual revaccination, than it does measles, a virus so intolerant of mutation that one vaccine regimen lasts a lifetime.
“Does it mean we need to make a new vaccine every year?” said Paul Duprex, who heads the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Vaccine Research. ”We don’t know.”
For one thing, mRNA vaccines for Covid-19 have efficacy rates above 90%, much higher than the 60% rate for flu shots in a good year. But vaccine makers Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc., along with its partner BioNTech SE, aren’t taking any chances. Just in case, they’re already starting trials of booster shots aimed at B.1.351, the antibody-evading strain first spotted in South Africa.
When viruses replicate and copy their genomes, errors can erupt the long string of RNA or DNA “letters” that determine how viral proteins are developed. Many of the errors have no effect, or they can even make the virus less fit. But a tiny percentage of these changes can give the virus an advantage, making it more infectious or giving it the ability to evade the immune system.
The HIV virus is notorious for its rapid mutation rate. In comparison, SARS-CoV-2 mutates at a much slower rate, partly due to a proof-reading enzyme that limits changes. But with more than 125 million infections worldwide, some errors are bound to slip through.
At the same time, the virus has found devious ways that may avoid its proof-reading mechanism, University of Pittsburgh researchers have found. Rather than making changes in individual RNA letters, it deletes groups of several letters at a time, apparently undercutting the ability of the virus’s natural spell-check systems to see the change.
More
Asia Today: Philippines extends lockdown as infections spike
April 5, 2021
MANILA, Philippines (AP) — The Philippine government extended a lockdown by another week Monday after an alarming spike in coronavirus infections continued to surge and started to overwhelm many hospitals in the capital and outlying regions.
President Rodrigo Duterte placed Metropolitan Manila and four outlying provinces, a region of more than 25 million people, under lockdown last week as daily infections breached 10,000. Roman Catholic leaders shifted Holy Week and Easter events online after all public gatherings, including in places of worship, were temporarily banned.
The government-run Lung Center of the Philippines became the latest hospital in the capital region to announce over the weekend that it can no longer accept walk-in patients after its COVID-19 ward reached full capacity and its emergency room was handling twice its capacity.
“We are not just full. We are very full. In fact, the hospital has been full for the past two weeks,” Lung Center spokesman Dr. Norberto Francisco said.
Other hospitals said they could expand bed capacity but lacked enough medical workers partly because many had been infected.
Duterte’s administration has increasingly faced criticisms of mishandling the pandemic, but presidential spokesman Harry Roque said the spread of more infectious coronavirus variants came as a surprise.
---- The Philippines has reported more than 795,000 COVID-19 cases with 13,425 deaths, the highest totals in Southeast Asia after Indonesia.
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region:
— Citywide testing in a Chinese border city near Myanmar has uncovered 20 more cases of coronavirus infection, the National Health Commission reported Monday, raising the total in the outbreak past 100. Ruili is working to vaccinate all its 300,000 residents to try to get under control an outbreak that is something of an anomaly in a country that has all-but eliminated local transmission. Five of the newly reported cases were people who showed no symptoms, bringing the city’s totals to 51 cases of COVID-19 and 56 cases of infection without symptoms.
— India recorded more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases Monday for the first time since the pandemic began. The Health Ministry said 103,558 infections were reported in the last 24 hours, exceeding the previous high of 97,894 in late September and taking India’s overall tally to 12.5 million. Fatalities rose by 478 in the past 24 hours, raising the death toll to 165,101. New infections in India are currently being reported faster than anywhere else in the world. The biggest contributor to the new surge has been the western state of Maharashtra, home to the commercial capital of Mumbai. The state has announced stringent COVID-19 restrictions, including night curfews and weekend lockdowns. The government has intensified its vaccination drive in recent weeks, now administering over 3 million jabs a day. But the shots have been slow to reach India’s nearly 1.4 billion people.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Health Canada removes graphene masks from market
Agency issues advisory warning Canadians not to use masks containing graphene over potential health concerns.
5 April, 2021 By: Ian Kaufman
THUNDER BAY – Health Canada has issued an advisory warning Canadians not to use face masks containing graphene, citing potential health risks.
The agency has directed distributors, importers, and manufacturers to stop selling the products pending a “thorough scientific assessment.”
Individuals are advised to immediately stop using masks labelled to contain graphene or biomass graphene, consult a health provider if they have used the masks and experienced any concerns such as shortness of breath, and report any adverse events to Health Canada.
Roughly 4.6 million graphene-coated masks were distributed to schools by the Quebec government, sourced from a Quebec company but manufactured in China, multiple media outlets have reported. It's unclear how widely such masks have been used in other areas of the country.
The potential health risks associated with the masks remain uncertain, the agency noted in its advisory. The material is a carbon allotrope reported to have antiviral and antibacterial properties, Health Canada said.
“Health Canada’s preliminary assessment of available research identified that inhaled graphene particles had some potential to cause early lung toxicity in animals,” it said. “However, the potential for people to inhale graphene particles from face masks and the related health risks are not yet known, and may vary based on mask design.”
Health Canada has requested data from manufacturers to assess potential health risks, it said.
That includes local company ZEN Graphene Solutions, which has supplied graphene-based coating for masks and filters made by Collingwood-based Trebor Rx.
A surgical mask using the graphene coating has not yet gone to market, but could potentially have begun distribution this month.
Reached Sunday, ZEN CEO Greg Fenton said the masks had undergone rigorous safety testing, including on lab animals, and passed Health Canada testing requirements as a Class I medical device.
Fenton welcomed the investigation and expressed confidence the masks his company contributes material to would be found to be safe.
Health Canada issued its advisory after becoming aware that masks containing graphene had been sold “with COVID-19 claims” and used by adults and children in schools and daycares, it said. They may also have been distributed in health care settings.
Any face masks containing graphene will remain off the market until Health Canada has completed a more thorough assessment, it said.
https://www.tbnewswatch.com/local-news/health-canada-removes-graphene-masks-from-market-3602447
Whenever you try to do good with someone else's money, you are committed to using force. How can you do good with somebody else's money, unless you first take it away from them? The only way you can take it away from them is the threat of force: you have a policeman, tax collector, who comes and takes it from them.
Milton Friedman.
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