Baltic Dry Index. 1568 +40 Brent
Crude 61.07 Spot Gold 1461
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
“One of the great mistakes is to judge
policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”
With unexpected moves yesterday, trade war team Trump
opened up a new trade war on Argentina and Brazil, and proposed 100 percent
tariffs on French wines, cheeses, cosmetics, and luxury bags, to come into
force early next year.
Similar products from Austria, Italy, and Turkey might
also come under review for tariffing next year.
The focus now falls on the December 15 deadline for new
US tariffs on China, and whether President Trump will follow through on his
threat to put tariffs on German auto exports.
In effect, Trump’s USA is declaring unilateral trade war
on the rest of the world. Ironically, it’s mostly US consumers and manufacturers
that are getting taxed, but in much of the rest of the world the perception
will be of the USA bullying smaller developing countries. Expect China to fully
work over the world with that line.
Below, a USA determined to tip the global economy into
recession. Who gains from that? Nobody.
Global stocks drop as Trump's Brazil, Argentina tariffs revive trade angst
December 3, 2019 /
1:13 AM
SHANGHAI
(Reuters) - Asian shares tumbled on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump
stunned markets with tariffs against imports from Brazil and Argentina,
recharging fears about global trade tensions, while weak U.S. factory data
added to the investor gloom.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.37%, with Australian shares dropping more than 2%, on track for their worst day in two months.
China's blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 fell as much as 0.62% before clawing back to end the morning session flat. Japan's Nikkei .N225 shed 0.61%.
In tweets on Monday, Trump said he would impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, attacking what he saw as both countries’ “massive devaluation of their currencies.”
Contrary to his remarks, both Brazil and Argentina have been trying to strengthen their respective currencies against the dollar.
Steven Daghlian, market analyst at CommSec in Sydney, said while the South American tariffs dominated market worries on Tuesday, China’s response to U.S. supporting for anti-government protesters in Hong Kong has also chilled sentiment.
“Markets are extremely sensitive to any good or bad news on the U.S.-China dispute front, but also the U.S. relationship with other nations as well,” he said.
China said on Monday U.S. military ships and aircraft won’t be allowed to visit Hong Kong, and also announced sanctions against several U.S. non-government organisations for encouraging protesters to “engage in extremist, violent and criminal acts.”
Worsening the mood, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for a fourth straight month in November as new orders slid.
That erased the market cheer from upbeat Chinese factory surveys released over the past few days.
More
Trump brings back tariffs on Brazil and Argentina as deadline for China levies approaches
By Steve
Goldstein Published: Dec 2, 2019
7:38 a.m. ET
President Donald Trump on Monday tweeted that he was
bringing back tariffs on Brazilian and Argentina steel as a key deadline for
imposing more levies on China approaches.“Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that is shipped into the U.S. from those countries,” Trump said.
Brazil and Argentina both received exemptions from the 25% steel tariffs and 10% aluminum tariffs in May 2018.
The real BRLUSD, +0.1324% has dropped 8% this year, and the Argentine peso ARSUSD, -0.010694% has plunged 37% as that country’s economy has imploded.
Trump’s move on steel tariffs comes as the U.S. and China are having troubling finalizing a so-called phase one trade deal. China has called for the removal of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, as a Dec. 15 deadline for an extra 15% tariffs on products is set for imposition.
Trump, as he has previously done, also called for the Fed to cut interest rates to weaken the dollar. The Fed has cut interest rates three times in 2019.
U.S. stock futures moved off their highest levels of the day and European stocks flattened out after President Trump tweeted.
More
U.S. Proposes Duties on $2.4 Billion of French Goods Over Tech Tax
By William Horobin, Jenny Leonard, and Laura Davison
Updated on December 2, 2019, 11:44 PM GMT
The U.S. proposed tariffs on roughly $2.4 billion in French products, in
response to a tax on digital revenues that hits large American tech companies
including Google, Apple Inc., Facebook Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.“France’s digital services tax discriminates against U.S. companies,” the office of the United States Trade Representative said in a statement Monday.
USTR Robert Lighthizer said the agency is also exploring whether to open investigations into similar digital taxes by Austria, Italy and Turkey. The move comes hours after President Donald Trump announced a barrage of other tariffs on steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil.
“USTR’s
decision today sends a clear signal that the United States will take action
against digital tax regimes that discriminate or otherwise impose undue burdens
on U.S. companies,” Lighthizer said in the statement. “The USTR is focused on
countering the growing protectionism of EU member states, which unfairly targets
U.S. companies.”
The tariffs would be imposed after a public comment period concludes in early 2020 and interested parties have a chance to weigh in on the proposed duties.
Wine, Cheese
Monday’s report concludes a more than four-month-long probe, known as a Section 301 investigation, into France’s tax regime, which Lighthizer in July said “unfairly targets American companies.” The same law was used last year to examine China’s intellectual property practices that led to tariffs on more than $360 billion in Chinese goods.Trump in August suggested tariffs of up to 100% on French wine and told aides that while he’s not generally empathetic with U.S. tech companies, he believes it should be the U.S. -- not any other country -- that taxes them, people familiar with internal deliberations said.
In the statement Monday, USTR said the proposed action includes “additional duties of up to 100% on certain French products.”
Sparkling wine, cheeses, handbags and makeup are on the list of potential tariff targets, according to the notice. An official at the French Finance Ministry declined to comment and said Minister Bruno le Maire would speak on the matter Tuesday.
---- The U.S. tariffs and the French tax are likely to be a priority during a meeting between Trump and Macron on Tuesday, on the sidelines of a NATO conference in London.
Macron argues that moving ahead with a tax on tech companies is
necessary because the structure of the global economy has shifted to one based
on data, rendering current systems archaic. His government is trying to use
France’s national tax as a bargaining chip, saying it would withdraw it if
there is agreement on an international solution -- in talks under the
stewardship of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
More
U.S. may increase tariffs after WTO rejects EU claims over Airbus
December 2, 2019 /
10:04 AM
PARIS/BRUSSELS
(Reuters) - The World Trade Organization on Monday rejected European Union
claims that it no longer provides subsidies to planemaker Airbus (AIR.PA),
prompting the United States to say it could increase retaliatory tariffs on a
wider range of European goods.
A new compliance report from the Geneva trade watchdog found that the
Airbus A380 and A350 jetliners continue to be subsidised as a result of past
European government loans.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the decision affirmed
that European subsidies to Airbus continued to harm the U.S. aerospace
industry, and strong action was required to eliminate such market-distorting
subsidies.
It was the latest salvo in a record transatlantic trade dispute
involving mutual claims of illegal aircraft subsidies, which comes to a head at
a time of rising global trade tensions and has grabbed the attention of
financial markets this year.
The United States was in October awarded the right to impose tariffs on $7.5 billion of annual EU imports in its case against Airbus. It placed partial tariffs on most Airbus jets and products from cheese to olives and single-malt whisky.
A decision on retaliation rights for the EU in a parallel case on aid for Boeing (BA.N) is due next year.
Officials on both sides have expressed support for a negotiated settlement, while accusing the other of failing to take the prospect of a negotiated solution seriously.
----
USTR, which imposed tariffs of 10% on large civil EU aircraft and 25% on
selected farm and other products in October, said it would look at raising
tariff rates and subjecting additional EU products to the tariffs. It gave no
immediate details on the size of the possible increases, or which products
could be added to the current list.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-wto-aircraft/u-s-may-increase-tariffs-after-wto-rejects-eu-claims-over-airbus-idUKKBN1Y60YJ
“Underlying most arguments against the free
market is a lack of belief in freedom itself.”
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
No crooks today, they’ll probably be back tomorrow. Today, more sign of Eur-Asian
integration. Russia and China take another step towards de-dollarisation. Russia
and Turkey take another step closer.
China and Russia Are Partners—and Now Have a $55 Billion Pipeline to Prove It
Putin and Xi flip the switch on a gas conduit from Siberia, challenging the economic and strategic clout of the U.S.
By Georgi Kantchev | Photographs by Arthur
Bondar for The Wall Street Journal
Dec. 1, 2019 1:30 pm ET
Russia’s most significant energy project since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Power of Siberia pipeline is a physical bond strengthening a new era of cooperation between two world powers that have separately challenged the U.S.
Beijing and Moscow, after years of rivalry and mutual suspicion, are expanding an economic and strategic partnership influencing global politics, trade and energy markets. At the same time, Beijing is fighting a trade war with Washington, and Russia’s relations with the West grow colder.
“China and Russia joining forces sends a message that there are alternatives to the U.S.-led global order,” said Erica Downs, a Columbia University fellow and former CIA energy analyst.
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will lead the opening ceremony
of the pipeline via video links. Mr. Xi has described the Russian leader as his
“closest and most intimate friend” among his foreign colleagues.
Russia, which has the world’s largest proven gas reserves, needs cash as
its economy buckles under Western sanctions. China, with the world’s second
largest economy after the U.S., needs fuel and wants to wean itself off coal.
“China needs energy resources, and Russia has such resources,” Mr. Putin
said in October. “This is an absolutely natural partnership, and it will
continue.”
The pipeline travels 1,800 miles, connecting Russia’s Siberian gas
fields with China’s northern industrial hubs.
The collaboration took off after the U.S. and European Union moved to
punish Moscow for taking control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Facing
painful sanctions, the Kremlin turned to countries that wouldn’t shut it off.
---- Russia-China trade reached a record level that year, exceeding $100 billion, according to Russian government data.
In June, China’s Huawei Technologies Co. struck a deal with Russian mobile operator MTS to develop a 5G network in Russia, while on a export blacklist in the U.S.
---- As
Moscow seeks to de-dollarize
its economy, China’s yuan has become a larger part of
Russia’s foreign-currency reserves, increasing to 14.2% in March from 5% the
year before, according to the Russian central bank. The shift helps boost trade
further as Russia looks to do more business with China in yuan.
---- New
access to Russian natural gas also gives Beijing leverage in the
trade war with the U.S. by making China less reliant on
America’s generally pricier liquefied natural gas. Shipments of American
liquefied natural gas were growing rapidly until China introduced a 10% import
tariff last year. After Beijing raised the tariff to 25% in May, natural gas
deliveries from the U.S. halted.
More
Putin, Erdogan plan to launch TurkStream pipeline on January 8: Kremlin
December 2, 2019
/ 11:20 AM
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to travel to
Turkey for talks with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan on Jan. 8 where he
will open the TurkStream natural gas pipeline, the Kremlin said on Monday.
The two leaders will also be able to discuss other issues at talks which
are likely to be held in the Turkish city of Istanbul, said Kremlin spokesman
Dmitry Peskov.
The TurkStream pipeline is designed to carry Russian natural gas to
Turkey and southern Europe.
“Many
people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem
is to protect the consumer from the government.”
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
The Downside of Solar Energy
As renewable energy expands, used
photovoltaic panels are creating a growing waste problem—but recycling could be
the answer.
The solar economy continues its dramatic growth, with over a half-terawatt already installed around the world generating clean electricity. But what happens to photovoltaic (PV) modules at the end of their useful life? With lifespans measured in decades, PV-waste disposal may seem to be an issue for the distant future. Yet, the industry ships millions of tons every year, and that number will continue to rise as the industry grows. Total e-waste—including computers, televisions, and mobile phones—is around 45 million metric tons annually.
By comparison, PV-waste in 2050 will be twice that figure. Motivated by concerns about exposure to toxic materials, increased disposal costs and overcapacity at landfills managed by underfunded local governments, researchers are exploring global solar waste management solutions based on concepts like the circular economy.
At the same time, demand for everything from sand to rare and precious
metals continues to rise. While supplying only about 1 percent of global
electricity, photovoltaics already relies on 40 percent of the global tellurium
supply, 15 percent of the silver supply, a large portion of semiconductor
quality quartz supply, and smaller but important segments of the indium, zinc,
tin, and gallium supplies. Closing the loop on these metals and embracing
circular economy concepts will be critical to the industry’s future.
Europe is leading the way
The leading policy with a proven record of successful end-of-life product management is extended producer responsibility (EPR). A decade ago, European PV manufacturers began participating in a voluntary EPR system called “PV Cycle.” In 2014, when the industry came under the Waste Electronics and Electrical (WEEE) Directive, all manufacturers were required to participate in an EPR program. Since 2009, the EPR program run by PV Cycle has recycled over 30,000 metric tons of PV, and with the establishment of collection centers, has driven a market in second-life PV modules.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November
DJIA: 28,051 +76 Up. NASDAQ: 8,665 +94 Up. SP500: 3,141 +90 Up. All higher again, but it’s
not a buy signal I would follow. I would wait for the next sell signal.
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