Baltic Dry Index. 1606 +38 Brent
Crude 61.34 Spot Gold 1480
Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."
Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.
Was December 3rd, 2019 the day that the wheels
flew off the USA v China trade deal bandwagon? President Trump suggested a China
trade deal could wait until after next year’s election. The US Congress again
passed more anti-China legislation threatening sanctions, angering China.
Elsewhere, France lined up EU support for retaliation against
US exports if Trump goes ahead with 100 percent punitive tariffs of French wines,
cheeses and cosmetics.
Topping off all yesterday’s dramas, a good rowdy time was
had by all attending the NATO 70th anniversary celebrations in
London. It probably had them rolling on the floor in Moscow.
More seriously though, if December 3, was the day that
killed off any chance of a trade war deal “lite” part one, between America and
China, and more US tariffs against China go into effect on December 15, a very
harsh reality is about to hit global stock markets like the Titanic hitting an
iceberg.
The global economy will tip into a full on recession, if
it hasn’t already done so, and heavily indebted stocks pulling back from
stratosphere highs, will bear the brunt of the new reality.
Below, yesterday’s day of unrelenting bad news. Still it
could get worse in a hurry. British voters could put a communist, terrorist
supporter into 10 Downing Street on Thursday week!
Comrade Corbyn’s New Communist Labour
Party: Bolshevism 1920s.
Asian markets sink after Trump’s trade-deal comments
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: Dec 3, 2019 11:16
p.m. ET
Asian markets fell in early trading Wednesday after
President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China may not come until after
the 2020 presidential election.“In some ways, I think it’s better to wait until after the election if you want to know the truth. But I’m not going to say that, I just think that,” Trump said Tuesday at a news conference in London, where he was attending a NATO summit.
U.S. stocks sank after the remark, though the three major indexes closed above session lows.
Trade tensions could escalate further, after Congress late Tuesday overwhelmingly approved a bill condemning China’s mass detention of ethnic Muslims, and called for sanctions against some officials responsible. China reacted harshly last week to a bill Trump signed last week supporting Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters.
---- “Until both sides dial down their hawkish rhetoric, markets will continue to pull back earlier optimism,” said DBS Group analysts in a report. “Trade war will be the key driver of sentiment in the immediate few weeks.”
On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 index SPX, -0.66% fell 0.7% to 3,093.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.01% lost 1% to 27,502.81. The Nasdaq COMP, -0.55% dropped 0.6% to 8,520.64.
Negotiators have yet to agree on details of an interim deal that Trump has called “Phase 1” deal.
Investors also are also weighing the potential for additional trade disputes.
More
What a ‘no-deal’ U.S.-China trade scenario would mean for stocks and bonds
By William
Watts Published: Dec 3, 2019 4:40
p.m. ET
Imagine there’s no trade deal and that the U.S.-China
battle is left to rumble on through most of next year instead.That scenario is one that stock-market participants must now debate as equities tumbled Tuesday after President Donald Trump indicated he’s in no hurry to complete any accord with Beijing and that it might be best to wait until after next year’s presidential election.
Trump, speaking in London, said he had no deadline for completing long-running U.S.-China trade talks. “In some ways, I think it’s better to wait until after the election if you want to know the truth. But I’m not going to say that, I just think that,” he said.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross followed up Trump’s comments on Tuesday in a CNBC interview, saying that the president was under no “time pressure” to strike a deal with China and that another round of tariffs would be imposed on Chinese goods on Dec. 15 unless there was “some real reason to postpone them.”
Whether Trump’s remarks were merely a negotiating tactic, or represented the potential for a full breakdown of negotiations, remains the subject of speculation. Taken at face value though they indicate that the trade war would be a “semi-permanent facet of global commerce throughout next year,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
---- “The market implications of ‘no deal’ are ostensibly straightforward; trade-war-inspired global uncertainties will limit the upside for risk assets and put a ceiling on how far Treasury yields can increase in any bearish episode,” Lyngen said. “This is complicated by the fact that by kicking the proverbial can beyond Nov. 3 (next year), Trump may be eliminating the ‘risk-on’ potential from even the watered-down/phase-one compromise.”
Meanwhile, investors may also be focusing on a Dec. 15 deadline that
would see the U.S. impose another round of levies — 15% on about $160 billion
of Chinese goods — take effect.
More
Column: U.S.-China trade pendulum swings toward Beijing; commodities key
December 3, 2019 /
12:11 PM
LAUNCESTON,
Australia (Reuters) - Since U.S. President Donald Trump launched his trade
dispute with China one of the best questions to ask in order to assess the
current state of the process is who, right now, is more desperate to do a deal.
For most of 18 months or so since the tit-for-tat tariffs began the
conventional thinking has been Beijing is more keen to finalise an agreement,
given the obvious slowing of growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.
However, the abrupt swing in the Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for both
China and the United States, coupled with mounting domestic political pressure
on Trump as he heads into his re-election campaign, may have altered the
dynamic.
China’s official PMI unexpectedly returned to positive territory in November,
rising to 50.2, the highest since March and moving above the 50-point level
that separates expansion from contraction.
However, the U.S. PMI went the other way, staying in negative territory
for a fourth month, slipping to 48.1 in November, down from 48.3 in October.
Of course, one month’s recovery in the Chinese PMI doesn’t yet confirm
that the worst is past, but it perhaps does show that the stimulus Beijing has
injected into the economy in the form of monetary loosening and infrastructure
spending may be starting to filter through to real activity.
Similarly, the weakness in the U.S. PMI doesn’t necessarily mean the
world’s biggest economy is irrevocably on the path to recession, but it does
raise concerns for Trump given his re-election hopes are likely to be centred
on winning states dependent on manufacturing jobs.
---- What has become clearer in recent months is that the Trump administration seems increasingly keen to get a deal signed and delivered, even if the agreement falls way short of the initial aims when the trade dispute was launched.
For its part Beijing also seems keen to ink a deal, but only if the
tariffs imposed on much of its exports to the United States are removed, or at
least rolled back.
It’s possible the two sides can reach an initial agreement, but it seems
increasingly likely that Trump won’t get nearly as much as he wants, and the
political spin machine will have to go into overdrive to portray any agreement
as a victory.
More
A key manufacturing index shows the US remains in contraction territory
Published Mon, Dec 2 201910:01 AM
ESTUpdated Mon, Dec 2 20192:43 PM EST
Manufacturing activity continued to lag in November amid a decline in
inventories and new orders, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing reading
released Monday.
The reading came in at 48.1 vs. an expectation of 49.4 and the previous
month’s reading of 48.3.
Though the level is usually reported as a simple number, it actually
denotes the percentage of manufacturers planning to expand operations. A
reading below 50 represents contraction; November was the fourth straight month
below the expansion level.
The numbers come amid speculation about the pace of U.S. growth.
Recession worries have ebbed from earlier in the year, when the Treasury
yield curve was inverted and flashing what has been a reliable 12-month
recession indicator for the past 50 years. GDP growth has averaged around 2.4%
in 2019, with the third quarter coming in at 2.1%. However, most forecasters
expect the fourth quarter to come in under 2%.
The report shows that manufacturing “is stuck in a mild recession with
little prospect of a real near-term revival.
---- Manufacturing is considered a reliable bellwether for how the rest of the economy is doing, though it accounts for only about one-fifth of GDP.
Nearly all of the key ISM indicators were at contraction levels in
November.
Employment was at 46.6, down 1.1 point for the month, while export
orders fell 2.5 points to 47.9 as the U.S. and China continue to look for a
resolution to a trade dispute that began more than a year and a half ago.
More
France and EU say primed to retaliate over U.S. tariff threat
December 3, 2019 /
7:21 AM
PARIS
(Reuters) - France and the European Union said on Tuesday they are ready to
retaliate if U.S. President Donald Trump acts on a threat to impose duties of
up to 100% on imports of champagne, handbags and other French products worth
$2.4 billion.
The threat of punitive tariffs came after a U.S. government
investigation found France’s new digital services tax would harm U.S.
technology companies, and will intensify a festering trade dispute between
Europe and the United States.
“They’re starting to tax other people’s products so therefore, we go and
tax them,” Trump said in London on Tuesday ahead of a NATO alliance summit.
He had earlier said he would not allow France to take advantage of
American companies and that the European Union treated the United States very
unfairly on trade.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire branded the latest U.S. tariff
threat unacceptable and said the French tax did not discriminate against
American companies.
“In case of new American sanctions, the European Union would be ready to
retaliate,” Le Maire told Radio Classique.
He later told a news conference: “We are not targeting any country.”
The tariff spat marks a new low in testy relations — from an early
bone-crunching handshake to the U.S. president appearing to flick dandruff off
the younger man’s shoulder — between Trump and French President Emmanuel
Macron.
The two leaders, who will meet later at the summit, have been at odds
over the American’s unilateralist approach to trade, climate change and Iran.
The European Commission said the 28-nation EU would act as one and that
the best place to settle disputes was at the World Trade Organization.
More
"We
finished the year, and we reported that we had $17 billion of cash sitting at
the bank's parent company as a liquidity cushion. As the year has gone on, that
liquidity cushion has been virtually unchanged."
Alan Schwartz, CEO Bear Stearns, March 12, 2008.
Bust March 16, 2008.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the UK’s National Crime Agency, (it works against crime not to
promote it,) scores a civil victory of sorts.
“The agency said the assets would
be passed to the government of Pakistan and the settlement with Hussain was “a
civil matter, and does not represent a finding of guilt”.”
Which to cynical old me, probably
means he gets the cash back later in Pakistan.
Pakistani tycoon agrees to hand over £190 million to settle UK probe
December 3, 2019
/ 1:30 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - The Pakistani real estate tycoon Malik Riaz Hussain
has agreed to hand over 190 million pounds held in Britain to settle a British
investigation into whether the money was from the proceeds of crime.
Hussain is one of Pakistan’s richest and most powerful businessmen and
biggest private employers, and is known for upmarket gated housing communities.
He has been caught up in corruption investigations but also supports charitable
causes.
Britain’s National Crime Agency (NCA) said it had agreed a settlement in
which Hussain would hand over a property, 1 Hyde Park Place, valued at 50
million pounds, and cash frozen in British bank accounts.
The NCA had previously secured nine freezing orders covering 140 million
pounds in the accounts on the grounds that the money may have been acquired
illegally.
The agency said the assets would be passed to the government of Pakistan
and the settlement with Hussain was “a civil matter, and does not represent a
finding of guilt”.
Hussain quoted this line in a tweet and also tweeted the NCA statement.
“Some habituals are twisting the NCA report 180 degrees to throw mud at
me,” he added.
The settlement
rekindles hopes for Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s anti-corruption
drive, which has so far failed to bring back the billions of dollars that his
government says opposition politicians have stashed abroad.
Comrade Corbyn’s New Communist Labour
Party: Taxing the many for the unionised few.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
The coldest reaction
With ultracold chemistry, researchers get first look at exactly what happens during a chemical reaction
Date:
November 28, 2019
Source:
Harvard University
Summary:
In temperatures millions of times colder than interstellar space, researchers
have performed the coldest reaction in the known universe. But that's not all.
In such intense cold, their molecules slowed to such glacial speeds, they could
see something no one has been able to see before: the moment when two molecules
meet to form two new molecules. In essence, they captured a chemical reaction
in its most critical and elusive act.
The coldest chemical reaction in the known universe took place in what
appears to be a chaotic mess of lasers. The appearance deceives: Deep within
that painstakingly organized chaos, in temperatures millions of times colder
than interstellar space, Kang-Kuen Ni achieved a feat of precision. Forcing two
ultracold molecules to meet and react, she broke and formed the coldest bonds
in the history of molecular couplings.
"Probably in the next couple of years, we are the only lab that can
do this," said Ming-Guang Hu, a postdoctoral scholar in the Ni lab and
first author on their paper published today in Science. Five years ago,
Ni, the Morris Kahn Associate Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology and a
pioneer of ultracold chemistry, set out to build a new apparatus that could achieve
the lowest temperature chemical reactions of any currently available
technology. But they couldn't be sure their intricate engineering would work.
Now, they not only performed the coldest reaction yet, they discovered
their new apparatus can do something even they did not predict. In such intense
cold -- 500 nanokelvin or just a few millionths of a degree above absolute zero
-- their molecules slowed to such glacial speeds, Ni and her team could see
something no one has been able to see before: the moment when two molecules
meet to form two new molecules. In essence, they captured a chemical reaction
in its most critical and elusive act.
Chemical reactions are responsible for literally everything: breathing,
cooking, digesting, creating energy, pharmaceuticals, and household products
like soap. So, understanding how they work at a fundamental level could help
researchers design combinations the world has never seen. With an almost
infinite number of new combinations possible, these new molecules could have
endless applications from more efficient energy production to new materials
like mold-proof walls and even better building blocks for quantum computers.
----With this intimate vision, Ni said she and her team can test theories that predict what happens in a reaction's black hole to confirm if they got it right. Then, her team can craft new theories, using actual data to more precisely predict what happens during other chemical reactions, even those that take place in the mysterious quantum realm.
Already, the team is exploring what else they can learn in their
ultracold test bed. Next, for example, they could manipulate the reactants,
exciting them before they react to see how their heightened energy impacts the
outcome. Or, they could even influence the reaction as it occurs, nudging one
molecule or the other. "With our controllability, this time window is long
enough, we can probe," Hu said. "Now, with this apparatus, we can
think about this. Without this technique, without this paper, we cannot even
think about this."
More
Comrade Corbyn’s New Communist Hate Filled Labour Party:
"You give us your vote. We give you your dreams. Delivery aspirational.”
Lying to the many to elect unelectable communists.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November
DJIA: 28,051 +76 Up. NASDAQ: 8,665 +94 Up. SP500: 3,141 +90 Up. All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would follow. I would wait for the next sell signal.
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