Thursday 5 December 2019

Trade War Hype. Nasty NATO. Two Faced Trudeau.


Baltic Dry Index. 1599 -07 Brent Crude 62.84 Spot Gold 1477

Never ending Brexit now January 31, or maybe sooner.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.

There will be some innocent victims in this fight against Blairite agents. We are launching a major attack on the Enemy; let there be no resentment if we bump someone with an elbow. Better that ten innocent people should suffer than one Blairite get away. When you chop wood, chips fly.

Comrade Agent Corbyn, with apologies to “Internationalist” Comrade Yezhov, who disappeared under Comrade “Uncle Joe” Stalin.

While NATO leaders were having a rollicking good time in 5 star Watford, north London, Russia got on with the business of subverting the UK election to get Comrade Agent Corbyn into 10 Downing Street.

Unsuccessfully according the UK polls, which have a poor track record covering GB elections and referendums. President Putin might yet be tempted to double down on his bets with UK bookies.

Meanwhile, Boss Trump got down to the serious NATO business of verbally bashing “two faced Trudeau.” Blocked from buying Greenland, perhaps Boss Trump could bid Queen Elizabeth for Canada. 

Still at 93, HM might have a sentimental attachment to Canada, and anyway might need it as a convenient expanse to bury/hide Prince Andrew.

In the global markets, it was all trade war settlement hype from unnamed US officials 
close to the never-ending trade talks, at least according to reports carried by Bloomberg. Surprisingly, to those unnamed US trade officials, US stocks rallied on those hyped reports that seemed to contradict Boss Trump.

Below, Asian markets try to guess what might come next.

Asian stocks climb as trade deal hopes flicker among Trump's mixed signals

December 5, 2019 / 1:03 AM
TOKYO/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Stock markets in Asia inched up on Thursday on the possibility that China and the United States may soon seal a “phase one” deal to end their 17-month trade war, but conflicting messages from U.S. President Donald Trump kept a lid on the advance.

European shares are set to follow with a slightly firmer open, with the pan-regional Euro Stoxx 50 futures .STXEc1 and London’s FTSE futures .FFIc1 rising 0.1% in early trade. 

Hopes that an agreement would soon emerge stemmed from a Bloomberg report on Wednesday that the two sides were close to a “phase one” deal, and Trump’s remarks that the talks were going “very well” after he had earlier said it might take until late 2020 to reach an accord.

“My base case scenario is the two sides reach some deal. The pressure for a deal is immense simply because of the economic slowdown in both countries,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.

“However, we see increased volatility because policy uncertainty has become a constant.”

As investors tilted towards optimism, riskier assets rose and safe havens such as the Japanese yen weakened.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 rose 0.7%, Australian shares were up 1.2%, and in China, blue chips .CSI300 climbed 0.7% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI eked out gains of 0.4%.

HSBC Global Research said in a note on Wednesday analysts’ consensus estimates of Asian companies’ earnings forecasts were revised up for the first time in 18 months, and that similar turning points in recent years had paved the way for stock market recoveries.

But more market turbulence is possible in the short term given Sino-U.S. negotiations are very fluid.

If China and the United States cannot reach an agreement soon, the next important date to watch is Dec. 15, when Washington is scheduled to impose even more tariffs on Chinese goods.

Traders are also bracing for the closely-watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday to determine how well the U.S. economy is holding up amid a global slowdown.

Trading will likely be thin and there will be little money chasing these unpredictable trade headlines as the year-end approaches, said Robert Carnell, chief economist and head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING in Singapore.

“The motivation now (for investors) is not to lose any money if you’re under water, and if you’ve made money, keep it that way,” he said. “If you haven’t positioned yet you are not going to in the next couple of weeks.”
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In what might come next, is it a middle east war? Time to keep the car’s fuel tank fully topped up. With impeachment prone President Trump, you never know.

U.S. may deploy 14,000 more troops to Middle East

Published: Dec 4, 2019 8:46 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is considering a significant expansion of the U.S. military footprint in the Middle East, including dozens more ships, other military hardware and as many as 14,000 additional troops to counter Iran, U.S. officials said.

The deployment could double the number of U.S. military personnel who have been sent to the region since the start of a troop buildup in May. President Donald Trump is expected to make a decision on the new deployments as soon as this month, those officials said.

Trump, facing an election next year, has long sought to exit foreign entanglements and avoid new conflicts. But on Iran — and partly at the behest of Israel — he is convinced of the need to counter the threat his aides say Tehran poses, the officials said. He also could approve a smaller U.S. deployment, the officials said.

There is growing fear among U.S. military and other administration officials that an attack on U.S. interests and forces could leave the U.S. with few options in the region, officials said. By sending additional military resources to the region, the administration would be presenting a more credible deterrent to Tehran, which has been blamed for a series of attacks, including one in September against oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Iran has denied involvement.

The new U.S. deployment also would be designed as a deterrent against possible Iranian retaliation for mounting sanctions under the administration’s economic-pressure campaign. Some officials worry, however, that adding more military resources to the mix could provoke another attack or put the region on track for a dangerous and unpredictable conflict.
An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

Finally, thankfully, that nasty, NATO 70th anniversary celebration ended. Winner, Russia. Runner up, China. Loser, Canada (again.) Hopefully, we won’t get a repeat anniversary for another 30 years. But did NATO get value for our money in 5 star luxury Watford, winter England?

'Nasty', 'two-faced', 'brain dead' - NATO pulls off summit despite insults

December 4, 2019 / 12:20 AM
WATFORD, England (Reuters) - NATO leaders set aside public insults ranging from “delinquent” to “brain dead” and “two-faced” on Wednesday, declaring at a 70th anniversary summit they would stand together against a common threat from Russia and prepare for China’s rise.

Officials insisted the summit was a success: most notably, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan backed off from a threat to block plans to defend northern and eastern Europe unless allies declared Kurdish fighters in Syria terrorists. 

But the meeting began and ended in acrimony startling even for the era of U.S. President Donald Trump, who arrived declaring the French president “nasty” and left calling Canada’s prime minister “two-faced” for mocking him on a hot mic.

“We have been able to overcome our disagreements and continue to deliver on our core tasks to protect and defend each other,” NATO’s ever-optimistic Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference.

In a joint declaration, the alliance’s 29 leaders said: “Russia’s aggressive actions constitute a threat to Euro-Atlantic security; terrorism in all its forms and manifestations remains a persistent threat to us all.”

The half-day summit at a golf resort on the outskirts of London was always going to be tricky, with officials hoping to avoid bust-ups that burst forth at their meeting last year when Trump complained about allies failing to bear the financial burden of collective security.
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Trump calls Canada's Trudeau 'two-faced' after summit video

December 4, 2019 / 10:27 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Justin Trudeau as “two-faced” on Wednesday after the Canadian prime minister was caught on camera laughing over Trump’s press appearances during a chat with other leaders at a Buckingham Palace reception.

The incident came at a reception on Tuesday evening, after Trump had criticised French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders during long question-and-answer sessions with reporters on the eve of a NATO summit. 

Macron, Trudeau, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte were filmed chatting at the reception, along with Queen Elizabeth’s daughter Princess Anne.

“Is that why you were late?” Johnson can be heard asking Macron.

“...It was like a 40-minute press conference,” Trudeau said. “Yeah, yeah, yeah! Forty minutes.”

Other words were exchanged but could not be heard, before Trudeau added with a chuckle: “I just watched his team’s jaws drop to the floor.”

When asked about Trudeau’s comments on Wednesday, Trump replied: “He’s two faced.”

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If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. 

Comrade Agent Corbyn, hits the Communist trifecta. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, more on that not so easy to win trade war on China. Despite unnamed US officials telling Bloomberg, that the trade talks are still on and going well, unexpectedly boosting US stock markets, the evidence seems to be lacking.

China summons U.S. embassy official over Uighur bill

December 4, 2019 / 12:27 PM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China summoned a representative of the U.S. embassy on Wednesday to protest against a U.S. House of Representatives bill about Beijing’s treatment of its Uighur Muslim minority, state television reported.

Vice Foreign Minister Qin Gang made “stern representations” to William Klein, the U.S. embassy’s minister counsellor for political affairs, and urged the United States to stop interfering in China’s domestic affairs, according to the report. 

The U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday overwhelmingly approved a bill that would require the Trump administration to toughen its response to China’s crackdown on the Muslim minority, angering Beijing and further straining an already testy relationship.

China warns U.S. over Uighur bill, raising doubts over early trade deal

December 3, 2019 / 11:01 PM
BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China warned on Wednesday that the U.S. House of Representatives bill calling for a tougher U.S. response to Beijing’s treatment of its Uighur Muslim minority will impact bilateral cooperation, clouding prospects for a near-term deal to end a trade war.

Expectations of a quick deal had receded already, after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that it might take until late 2020 to reach agreement. 

The U.S. House’s approval of the Uighur Act of 2019, which still has to be approved by the Republican-controlled Senate before being sent to Trump, has angered Beijing and further strains an already testy relationship.

Several sources familiar with Beijing’s stance told Reuters that the bill could jeopardize the so-called phase one deal already fraught with disagreements and complications.

With a new round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled to take effect in less than two weeks, the possibility of another breakdown is growing.

“Do you think if America takes actions to hurt China’s interests we won’t take any action,” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters when asked whether the Uighur bill will affect the trade negotiations. “I think any wrong words and deeds must pay the due price.”

Negotiators have continued to work on the trade deal, but sources familiar with the talks say the two sides are still wrangling over the details including whether existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will be removed and how much in additional U.S. agricultural products China will buy.

Bloomberg reported on Wednesday the U.S. and China are “moving closer” to agreeing on how much tariffs would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite the Hong Kong and Xinjiang issues, citing people familiar with the talks.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC on Tuesday that staff-level trade negotiations with China were continuing but no high-level trade talks have been scheduled. The planned tariffs on remaining Chinese imports will take effect on Dec. 15 if there is no significant progress in the talks or a deal, he said.

Hua said China will not set any timeline or deadline for a trade deal and would take “decisive” countermeasures to defend its interests if Washington’s protectionism and bullying over trade continues. She did not elaborate on what the measures might be.

One Chinese official, who declined to be identified, warned that U.S. implementation of the new round of tariffs scheduled on Dec. 15 will be countered by China with retaliatory tariffs - an outcome that the official said would seriously disrupt ongoing negotiations.

Another Chinese government official, who declined to be identified, said it may take a very long time for Washington and Beijing to reach a deal if they cannot find a way to strike a deal while “the iron is hot.”
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Comrade Agent Corbyn, a glutton for punishment, stared at himself in the mirror.

With apologies to P G Wodehouse.


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Smog-eating graphene composite reduces atmospheric pollution

Date: December 3, 2019

Source: Graphene Flagship

Summary: A graphene-titania photocatalyst degrades up to 70% more atmospheric NOx than standard titania nanoparticles in tests on real pollutants. 

Graphene Flagship partners the University of Bologna, Politecnico di Milano, CNR, NEST, Italcementi HeidelbergCement Group, the Israel Institute of Technology, Eindhoven University of Technology, and the University of Cambridge have developed a graphene-titania photocatalyst that degrades up to 70% more atmospheric nitrogen oxides (NOx) than standard titania nanoparticles in tests on real pollutants.

Atmospheric pollution is a growing problem, particularly in urban areas and in less developed countries. According to the World Health Organization, one out of every nine deaths can be attributed to diseases caused by air pollution. Organic pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides and volatile compounds, are the main cause of this, and they are mostly emitted by vehicle exhausts and industry.

To address the problem, researchers are continually on the hunt for new ways to remove more pollutants from the atmosphere, and photocatalysts such as titania are a great way to do this. When titania is exposed to sunlight, it degrades nitrogen oxides -- which are very harmful to human health -- and volatile organic compounds present at the surface, oxidising them into inert or harmless products.

Now, the Graphene Flagship team working on photocatalytic coatings, coordinated by Italcementi, HeidelbergCement Group, Italy, developed a new graphene-titania composite with significantly more powerful photodegradation properties than bare titania. "We answered the Flagship's call and decided to couple graphene to the most-used photocatalyst, titania, to boost the photocatalytic action," comments Marco Goisis, the research coordinator at Italcementi. "Photocatalysis is one of the most powerful ways we have to depollute the environment, because the process does not consume the photocatalysts. It is a reaction activated by solar light," he continues.

By performing liquid-phase exfoliation of graphite -- a process that creates graphene -- in the presence of titania nanoparticles, using only water and atmospheric pressure, they created a new graphene-titania nanocomposite that can be coated on the surface of materials to passively remove pollutants from the air. If the coating is applied to concrete on the street or on the walls of buildings, the harmless photodegradation products could be washed away by rain or wind, or manually cleaned off.
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“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don’t need it and hell where they already have it.”

Ronald Reagan.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November

DJIA: 28,051 +76 Up. NASDAQ: 8,665 +94 Up. SP500: 3,141 +90 Up. All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would follow. I would wait for the next sell signal.

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