Wednesday, 18 December 2019

Full Speed Ahead. No “Champagne With Billionaires”


Baltic Dry Index. 1281 -34 Brent Crude 65.85 Spot Gold 1477

Never ending Brexit now January 31.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.

This is the way things are, and the Game has been so successful that, like everything, it will get more and more successful until it stops being successful.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.

Today, never mind the icebergs, full speed ahead. What could possibly go wrong as we dress up the stock markets for year-end? Will greed get its comeuppance? Look away from the Baltic Dry Index.

Asian markets little changed as Brexit fears temper Wall Street’s optimism

By Associated Press and Marketwatch  Published: Dec 17, 2019 10:18 p.m. ET
Asian shares were mixed Wednesday after record highs on Wall Street amid investor optimism about an interim U.S.-China trade deal announced last week were tempered by fresh worries of a hard Brexit.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 NIK, -0.50%   erased earlier gains to inch down 0.4% in morning trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, +0.03%   also gave up early gains and was last down 0.1% while the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.18%   was headed in the same direction. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.06%  gained 0.2% while South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +0.02%   was little changed. Benchmark indexes in Taiwan Y9999, +0.21%  , Singapore STI, +0.37%  , Malaysia FBMKLCI, +0.30%   and Indonesia JAKIDX, +0.19%   were mixed.

----“Global economic outlook seems to have improved in November and is going to extend the positive trajectory into early 2020,” said Margaret Yang at CMC Markets.

The U.S. and China agreed last week to cut tariffs on some of each others’ goods and postpone other tariff threats. The interim trade deal has helped ease a key source of uncertainty for investors heading into next year.

The latest batch of economic data also helps buttress traders’ confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. In August, fears that the U.S. was headed for recession roiled markets.

The Fed said Tuesday that industrial production and manufacturing were stronger last month than economists expected, though they are weaker than a year ago. Industrial production rebounded to 1.1% growth in November from October, better than the 0.8% that the market was expecting. But it remains 0.8% below year-ago levels.
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China stocks snap rally as trade euphoria eases

December 18, 2019 / 5:22 AM
HONG KONG, Dec 18 (Reuters) - China stocks took a breather on Wednesday from three sessions of gains, retreating from multi-month highs, as weary investors awaited concrete details from Beijing and Washington on their initial agreement to defuse the 17-month-long tariff war.

** At the midday break, the Shanghai Composite index was down 0.1% at 3,020.06 points, trading a notch lower from its highest level since mid-September hit on Tuesday. ** The blue-chip CSI300 index was almost unchanged from the previous close and hovering near its strongest level since April, also hit in the previous session. ** CSI300’s financial sector sub-index rose 0.2%, the consumer staples sector was flat and the real estate index edged down 0.3%. ** Chinese H-shares listed in Hong Kong rose 0.2%. The Hang Seng Index dipped 0.1% to 27,822.79, slightly lower from its highest level since late-July hit earlier in the session. ** The smaller Shenzhen index gained 0.2% and the start-up board ChiNext Composite index was weaker by 0.3%. 

** The so-called “phase-one” trade deal between Washington and Beijing has been “absolutely completed,” a top White House adviser said on Monday, adding that U.S. exports to China will double under the agreement. ** Kudlow’s remarks came after Chinese officials emphasized that the trade dispute has not been completely settled. ** The Trump administration is finalising a set of narrow rules to limit exports of sophisticated technology to adversaries such as China, a document seen by Reuters shows.
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Japan's exports fall for 12th straight month

By Megumi Fujikawa  Published: Dec 17, 2019 9:02 p.m. ET
TOKYO--Japan's exports fell in November from a year earlier, marking the 12th straight month of declines.

The country's exports fell 7.9% on year in November, data released by the Ministry of Finance shows Wednesday. That was a slower pace of decline than a forecast contraction of 9.7% by a FactSet poll of economists and a 9.2% drop marked in October.

The country logged 82.1 billion yen ($749.6 million) in trade deficit.

Japan's exports to China fell 5.4% on year due to weakness in demand for organic compounds and auto parts, while exports to the U.S. dropped 12.9% as car shipments declined.

Euro zone may face weak growth for years: ECB's Kazimir

December 17, 2019 / 12:59 PM
BRATISLAVA (Reuters) - Euro zone growth may be stuck in low gear until the bloc deals with a host of structural challenges, European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir told a news conference on Tuesday.

“I am worried that we won’t be able to enjoy significant economic growth before we deal with the fact that EU is lagging behind in technology and before we complete the European Monetary Union,” Kazimir, who is also Slovakia’s central bank chief, said. 

Last week the ECB forecast below potential growth for the coming years and said the bloc’s expansion could even slow from already weak levels by 2022.

In UK news, Prime Minister Johnson has removed his ministers January punch bowl. There’ll be no “champagne with billionaires” in Davos in 2020. But will any billionaires notice?

PM Johnson bans ministers from attending Davos - source

December 17, 2019 / 9:04 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has banned ministers from attending the World Economic Forum for the global elite in Davos next month, according to a Downing Street source.

After leading his Conservative party last week to its biggest election win since Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory of 1987, Johnson pledged to run a “people’s government” that would deliver Brexit and repay the trust placed in him by voters in former strongholds of his Labour opponents. 

“Our focus is on delivering for the people, not champagne with billionaires,” the source said on Tuesday, referring to the annual gathering in the Swiss ski resort of politicians, business leaders and celebrities.

The move echoes U.S. President Donald Trump, who banned senior officials from attending Davos in 2017 shortly after he took office. The 2020 event will be held from Jan. 21 to 24.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-johnson-davos/pm-johnson-bans-ministers-from-attending-davos-source-idUKKBN1YL2F9
  "We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."

Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

More on Boeing again.

Explainer: How the 737 MAX production freeze affects airlines across the globe

December 17, 2019 / 4:57 AM

---- The U.S. manufacturer said on Monday it would prioritise the delivery of the 400 737 MAX jets it had made since the model was grounded globally rather than feeding more airplanes into production. 

“This temporary move will put our system in a better position to recover and more efficiently deliver completed airplanes once we safely return the 737 MAX to service,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes Chief Executive Stan Deal told employees in a memo seen by Reuters.

Global airlines also have more than 370 of the planes that were delivered between the 737 MAX’s May 2017 introduction and March 2019 grounding and are now parked at airports and at desert storage around the world.

HOW WILL THE 737 MAX PRODUCTION FREEZE IMPACT AIRLINES?

The immediate impact is likely to be muted because once the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approves the 737 MAX to resume flying, airlines’ first priority is to prepare the 737 MAX jets already in their fleets to return to service.

Then they will look to take delivery of the 400 planes that have been produced since the grounding.
Analysts estimate Boeing has the ability to deliver a maximum of 70 of the planes to customers per month, meaning getting through that backlog would take nearly six months, even if it kept the pause on production for that entire period.

FAA approval to resume flying is not likely until at least February and could be delayed until March, U.S. officials have told Reuters.

Other global regulators, including in Europe and China, have indicated they could take even longer to approve the plane’s return.

HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE AIRLINES TO RETURN THE 737 MAX TO SERVICE ONCE REGULATORS APPROVE IT?

Airlines will have to install Boeing’s new software, run a series of maintenance checks on their idled jets and implement the recommended pilot training, the latter of which could vary from country to country.

U.S. carriers have said the process will take at least a month following FAA approval.

The return could also depend on regulators outside an airline’s home jurisdiction. Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIAL.SI) has said that even if Singapore approves the return of the 737 MAX, it will need permission from authorities in Indonesia and China for its planes to resume their normal routes.

WILL THE RETURN OF HUNDREDS OF GROUNDED PLANES LEAD TO OVER-CAPACITY?

The impact will vary in different regions. In the United States, 737 MAX operators like Southwest, United and American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O) have said they see demand for the flight frequencies and routes they plan to restore or launch when the model returns.

Analysts, however, have expressed concern about the impact of any slowdown in U.S. consumer spending.

In Europe and Asia, travel demand has been more muted in recent months as economic growth slows, leading to a risk of heightened competition and declining fares once the 737 MAX returns.

“Airlines in Europe are actually quite happy with the delay as it removes over-capacity from the market at a time when the economy is in slo-mo,” Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska said.
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Irish plane lessor sues Boeing for 737 MAX-related losses

December 18, 2019 / 2:07 AM
(Reuters) - An Ireland-based plane lessor sued Boeing Co (BA.N) on Tuesday for breaching a contract for 22 of the U.S. planemaker’s 737 MAX aircraft and sought a compensation of $185 million.

Timaero Ireland Ltd cited design flaws in Boeing’s best-selling aircraft, which has been grounded for nine months, and said the private company has been affected by the planemaker’s breach of contract.

Deliveries of the 737 Max have been frozen as a result of the grounding. On Monday, the Chicago-based company announced it would suspend production of its 737 MAX jetliner in January, as repercussions from two deadly crashes of the now-grounded aircraft drag into 2020.

“The 737 MAX aircraft contracted for between Boeing and Timaero are now either worthless or seriously diminished in value,” Timaero said.

The 737 MAX has been grounded since March after two crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia killed 346 people, costing the plane manufacturer more than $9 billion so far.

Boeing was not immediately available for a comment.

Somebody has to be on the other side.

George Goodman, aka Adam Smith. The Money Game. Why Are The Little People Always Wrong?

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Growing carbon nanotubes with the right twist

Researchers synthetize nanotubes with a specific structure expanding previous theories on carbon nanotube growth

Date: December 13, 2019

Source: Institute for Basic Science

Summary: Researchers synthetize nanotubes with a specific structure expanding previous theories on carbon nanotube growth. 

In a recently published paper in Science Advances, Feng Ding of the Center for Multidimensional Carbon Materials, within the Institute of Basic Science (IBS, South Korea) and colleagues, have achieved the creation of a specific type of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with a selectivity of 90%, and expanded the current theory that explains the synthesis of these promising nano-cylinders.

CNTs are incredibly strong and light nanomaterials made of carbon with superior current carrying capacity and very high thermal conductivity, making them ideal for electronic applications. Although CNTs are considered as some of the most interesting materials for the future, scientists are still struggling for their controllable synthesis.

The CNTs' shape can be compared to paper tubes: in the same way as a cylinder can be created by rolling a sheet of paper, so CNTs can be imagined as a single layer of graphite rolled up on itself. 
Similarly, as different tubes can be produced by rolling a paper around its long side, its short side, or diagonally at different angles. Depending on the rolling direction, a graphite layer can produce different CNT structures, some are conducting and others are semiconducting, thus selectively creating a specific type of CNT will be key for their future use, such as building energy efficient computer chips. However, CNTs are not produced by rolling, but are grown nanometer after nanometer, adding carbon at the rim of nano-cylinders, one atom at a time. Despite various studies during the last three decades, the understanding on CNT growth remains very limited and rational experimental design for the growth of specific types of CNTs is challenging.

----In this study, the researchers monitored the steady growth of CNTs on a magnesium oxide (MgO) support with carbon monoxide (CO) as the carbon feedstock and cobalt nanoparticles as catalysts at 700oC. The direct experimental measurements of 16 CNTs showed how to expand the previous theory. "It was surprising that the growth rate of a carbon nanotubes only depends on the size of the catalyst particle. This implies that our previous understanding on carbon nanotubes growth was not complete," says Maoshuai He, the first author of the paper.

----Interestingly, the new theory of CNT growth leads to a new mechanism to selectively grow a specific type of CNTs, denoted as (2n, n) CNTs, which is characterized by the maximum number of active sites at the interface between the CNT and the catalyst. This CNT structure would correspond to rolling a sheet of graphite diagonally at an angle of around 19 degrees.
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The BBC, taxing poor people in Britain to pay astronomical sums to rich people, who then insult their Brexit beliefs and views.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished November

DJIA: 28,051 +76 Up. NASDAQ: 8,665 +94 Up. SP500: 3,141 +90 Up. All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would follow. I would wait for the next sell signal.

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