Baltic Dry Index. 1151 -130 Brent
Crude 66.57 Spot Gold 1478
Never ending Brexit now January 31.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
Dodgy
Dave Cameron: "Juncker, I haven't tasted food for 3 days."
Juncker:
"Well, I wouldn't worry about it... it still tastes the same."
How
the EU helps out. With apologies to Curly, Moe, and Larry.
Today, as we head in towards Christmas and the usual
year-end light trading markets, a controversial alternate view of failing
Europe.
But first the update on the Asian markets.
Asian markets lackluster after yet more records on Wall Street
By Associated Press
and Marketwatch
Published: Dec 19,
2019 10:45 p.m. ET
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, -0.05% edged 0.2% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.30% edged 0.4% higher. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.05% inched up 0.2% and the Shenzhen Composite 399106, -0.09% was about flat. South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +0.19% gained 0.4% while benchmark indexes in Taiwan Y9999, -0.17% , Singapore STI, -0.02% , Malaysia FBMKLCI, -0.21% and Indonesia JAKIDX, -0.20% were little changed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.25% slipped 0.3%.
----Technology companies led stocks higher on Wall Street Thursday, extending the market’s gains for the week and pushing the major indexes to more record highs. Reports that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a trade deal with China was finished and ready for signing after the holidays also spurred buying.
“Indeed, agreement of the ‘Phase 1’ deal between the U.S. and China has removed quite a lot of uncertainties in the outlook for 2020, and with the global growth revival trade is looking better and better by the day, equity investors are reveling in the holiday cheer,” Stephen Innes of AxiTrader said in a commentary.
The broad gains on Wall Street erased the S&P 500’s slight losses from a day earlier. The benchmark index has notched gains six out of the past seven days.
A batch of encouraging earnings reports from several big companies helped keep investors in a buying mood. Rite Aid RAD, +42.31% , Conagra Brands CAG, +15.87% and Micron Technology MU, +2.81% rose after posting quarterly results that exceeded analysts’ forecasts.
Stock indexes were little changed for much of the day. Stocks, bonds, gold and a measure of fear among investors on Wall Street made only modest moves in the first day of trading after President Donald Trump’s impeachment by the House of Representatives.
“We’ve kind of known how this was going to play out for months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That just means that everybody has had an opinion, and whatever opinion that is it’s been priced into the market.”
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.45% rose 14.23 points, or 0.4%, to 3,205.37. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.49% gained 137.68 points, or 0.5%, to 28,376.96, a record. The Nasdaq composite COMP, +0.67% climbed 0.7% to 8,887.22, a record.
The major stock indexes climbed to record highs late last week as investors welcomed news that the U.S. and China had taken steps to de-escalate their trade conflict. Stocks have mostly continued their record-breaking run this week, shrugging off the House’s impeachment of President Trump.
More
Now back to an alternate view of failing Europe. With
Europe’s second largest economy escaping from the EUSSR next year, and a German
economy slowing and looking all too likely to lead the EU into a new recession
next year, Marketwatch publishes a harsh, very critical, opinion review of
Europe’s failings.
Who am I to disagree? The EUSSR badly needs root and
branch reform, but when Dodgy Dave Cameron tried hard for such reform back in
2016, to try to persuade GB voters to vote to stay in the European Union, he
was rebuffed by Berlin, Brussels and Paris. An unreformed, unreformable, wealth
and young people’s jobs destroying EU staggers on towards its sunset.
The next EU recession will either bring critical reform
or collapse and disintegration.
Below, Europe drinking in the last chance saloon.
Decisions can only be reached
in Europe if France and Germany agree.
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of
Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. Ex-European Commission President. Scotch
connoisseur.
Opinion: A helpless Europe is verging on economic and political humiliation
By Sławomir
Sierakowski Published: Dec 20, 2019
12:01 a.m. ET
WARSAW (Project Syndicate) — In 2004, the American economist Jeremy
Rifkin wrote a best-selling book, “The European Dream,” in which he proclaimed that the 21st
century would belong to Europe — and even would depend on it. In Rifkin’s view, a Europe held together by the idea of “unity in diversity” would be the most effective answer to globalization. Europe was supposed to represent a new “global awareness” and “freedom from the slavery of materialism,” which would be “replaced by empathy.”
We all know how that turned out. The materialistic United States, which Rifkin expected to be eclipsed by Europe, was better able to weather the financial crisis.
Brexit, the crises in Greece and Catalonia, and the implosion of liberal democracy in Central and Eastern Europe have highlighted the shortcomings of unity in diversity. And European societies’ hostile reaction to the wave of migrants fleeing wars and hunger demonstrated that empathy has failed to overcome materialism.
The error was not Europe’s, but Rifkin’s. Europe was not, and is not, bound to succeed. In fact, as 2019 comes to a close, the European Union is seemingly helpless and resigned in the face of its most important challenges: completing the economic and political integration of the bloc, creating a common defense policy and even safeguarding basic standards of the rule of law.
Poland’s government, for example, is responding to a European Court of Justice decision regarding violations of judicial independence by introducing legislation that would allow the country’s judges to be removed for criticizing violations of the Polish constitution. When leaders of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party proclaim that “this caste must be disciplined,” what can the EU do?
Rifkin’s analysis does not focus much on China, whose emergence as a global leader is displacing not the United States, but Europe. China is now the world’s largest exporter and, as the biggest producer of electric cars, it may soon overtake Germany to become the global leader in the automobile industry. America’s position as the world’s leading military, financial, and innovation power is not threatened for now. The U.S. withstood previous challenges from Germany and Japan in each of those areas, and very likely will resist China’s competitive threat, too. But Europe very likely will not.
In fact, we are witnessing a great reversal of roles between Europe and China compared to the 19th century. For China, the 1800s were the “age of humiliation,” a period when it was infiltrated by the French, British, and German empires, as well as by Russia and the US. These foreign powers imposed humiliating trade treaties, subordinated and exploited China economically, and controlled it politically.
Today, the EU increasingly resembles 19th-century China: a still-rich empire that cannot be occupied by others, but is weak enough to be infiltrated and exploited. China, meanwhile, has assumed Europe’s former role, with its companies and investors increasingly penetrating the European economy and extending their influence.
Chinese investors are buying Europe’s best factories (including the pearl of German robotics, KUKA) and its largest ports (including Duisburg in Germany, the world’s largest inland port, and Piraeus in Greece). They are signing unequal economic agreements and gradually conquering the EU, beginning with the weakest links, namely Eastern and Southern Europe — and, in particular, Hungary, Greece and Portugal.
Worse, there is no reaction from Brussels. There is a rickety plan to build European industrial champions, but it is being blocked by the fear of violating EU competition rules. The EU does not know what to do, including with the 5G infrastructure being built by Chinese companies.
More
Finally, more on unicorn ranching. Unicorns are supposed
to get scarcer and dearer next year, if you can find a greater fool buyer.
Heard of bitcoin's 'halving'? It's set to shake crypto markets in 2020
December 19, 2019
/ 10:59 AM
LONDON
(Reuters) - If you’re not a bitcoin enthusiast, you probably haven’t heard
what’s happening next year: It’s called the “halving”, and it will cut
production of the cryptocurrency by 50%.
No one’s in control of this process. It’s a rule written into bitcoin’s
underlying code by its pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto more than a decade
ago.
The event, expected in May 2020, slashes by half the number of new coins
awarded to bitcoin miners who provide global supply of the cryptocurrency by
solving complex maths puzzles.
That’s a big change in a market worth about $120 billion where bitcoin
worth several billions dollars are created every year.
Players in the know are preparing for the sharp price gains and
volatility that have accompanied previous halvings, which happen roughly every
four years and act to both ensure the scarcity of bitcoin and keep a cap on
price inflation.
There are likely to be winners and losers. So market participants, from
bitcoin miners and traders, are trying to fathom how the next halving might
play out to gain an edge.
“This is the biggest question right now for most of the industry,” said
Eyal Avramovich, chief executive of MineBest, a Warsaw-based company that mines
bitcoin.
The fracture to the production of bitcoin provides a reminder of one
reason why the decentralized digital currency has confounded regulation and
acceptance by mainstream finance: Its fate remains tied to arcane technological
factors.
In theory, if supply is cut and demand stays constant, prices rise. This
time around, seven crypto traders and miners interviewed by Reuters said the
May halving would probably lead to greater volatility and trading volumes.
However the cut to supply is liked to be more priced in than previously, they
said, with many traders already geared up for the upcoming event.
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, ex-president of the
European Commission. Scotch
connoisseur.
Crooks
and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, fools rush in, and all that. The EU decides to meddle in Spain.
This could get tricky, very fast.
Jailed Catalan leader was
entitled to immunity as lawmaker - EU court
December 19, 2019
/ 8:59 AM
LUXEMBOURG
(Reuters) - A Catalan leader jailed for his role in an independence referendum
deemed illegal by Spain was entitled to immunity as member of the European
Parliament despite not having being able to take up his seat, the EU’s highest
court ruled on Thursday.
The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ruling in respect of
Oriol Junqueras marks a likely boost for the Catalan separatist movement and
potentially puts judicial authorities in Brussels and Madrid at loggerheads.
Junqueras was sentenced in October to 13 years in jail for sedition and
misuse of public funds related to the region’s failed independence bid in
autumn 2017, which Spanish authorities had declared illegal.
He was elected to the European Parliament in May despite having been in
prison in Spain since November 2017.
Eight other leading figures in the independence movement were sentenced
to prison along with Junqueras, and the bitter standoff between them and the
government in Madrid has dominated Spain’s fragmented political landscape for
more than two years.
A spokeswoman for the government said it had no immediate comment on the
ruling.
The court said that, if Spanish authorities wanted to prevent Junqueras
travelling to the European Parliament, they would have to request that the
Parliament waive his immunity.
That immunity means an MEP cannot be subject to detention or legal
proceedings because of views expressed or votes cast, although it does not
apply to an MEP who has committed an offence.
Catalan separatist party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), of
which Junqueras is chairman, demanded his immediate release following the
verdict.
“The (court) ... acknowledges that he had immunity,” the party wrote on
Twitter. “We demand that the trial be voided and (his) immediate freedom.”
More
Catalan regional leader barred
from holding public office - court
December 19,
2019 / 11:45 AM
BARCELONA (Reuters) - The pro-independence leader of Catalonia’s
regional government has been barred from holding public office for 18 months
over his refusal to order the removal of separatist symbols from buildings, the
Spanish region’s highest court said on Thursday.
The ban handed to Quim Torra by the Barcelona court, for disobedience,
could prompt snap elections in the wealthy northeastern region, where a
movement calling for independence from Spain has cleaved society. Torra’s term
as regional leader is set to end in 2021.
The sentence is open to appeal at Spain’s Supreme Court, meaning the
ban, if upheld, could take months to come into force. Torra’s office had no
immediate comment on the ruling, a spokeswoman said.
Since taking office in May 2018, Torra has repeatedly clashed with
Madrid, most recently calling for a new vote on self-determination for the
region as protests over the jailing of nine independence leaders were staged in
Barcelona.
The court case stems from Torra’s refusal to follow the orders of
Spain’s electoral committee to remove symbols supporting jailed and self-exiled
Catalan independence leaders from public buildings during April’s general
election campaign.
The court also fined Torra about 30,000 euros (25,720.97 pounds).
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of
Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. Ex-European Commission President. Scotch
connoisseur.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Solar power from 'the dark side'
unlocked by a new formula
Engineers calculate the ultimate
potential of next-generation solar panels
Date:
December 18, 2019
Source:
Purdue University
Summary:
Most of today's solar panels capture sunlight and convert it to electricity
only from the side facing the sky. If the dark underside of a solar panel could
also convert sunlight reflected off the ground, even more electricity might be
generated.
Most of today's solar panels capture sunlight and convert it to
electricity only from the side facing the sky. If the dark underside of a solar
panel could also convert sunlight reflected off the ground, even more
electricity might be generated.
Double-sided solar cells are already enabling panels to sit vertically
on land or rooftops and even horizontally as the canopy of a gas station, but
it hasn't been known exactly how much electricity these panels could ultimately
generate or the money they could save.
A new thermodynamic formula reveals that the bifacial cells making up
double-sided panels generate on average 15% to 20% more sunlight to electricity
than the monofacial cells of today's one-sided solar panels, taking into
consideration different terrain such as grass, sand, concrete and dirt.
The formula, developed by two Purdue University physicists, can be used
for calculating in minutes the most electricity that bifacial solar cells could
generate in a variety of environments, as defined by a thermodynamic limit.
"The formula involves just a simple triangle, but distilling the
extremely complicated physics problem to this elegantly simple formulation
required years of modeling and research. This triangle will help companies make
better decisions on investments in next-generation solar cells and figure out
how to design them to be more efficient," said Muhammad "Ashraf"
Alam, Purdue's Jai N. Gupta Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering.
In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences, Alam and coauthor Ryyan Khan, now an assistant professor at East
West University in Bangladesh, also show how the formula can be used to
calculate the thermodynamic limits of all solar cells developed in the last 50
years. These results can be generalized to technology likely to be developed
over the next 20 to 30 years.
The hope is that these calculations would help solar farms to take full
advantage of bifacial cells earlier in their use.
----The paper might have gotten the math settled just in time: experts estimate that by 2030, bifacial solar cells will account for nearly half of the market share for solar panels worldwide.
Alam's approach is called the "Shockley-Queisser triangle,"
since it builds upon predictions made by researchers William Shockley and
Hans-Joachim Queisser on the maximum theoretical efficiency of a monofacial
solar cell. This maximum point, or the thermodynamic limit, can be identified
on a downward sloping line graph that forms a triangle shape.
The formula shows that the efficiency gain of bifacial solar cells
increases with light reflected from a surface. Significantly more power would
be converted from light reflected off of concrete, for example, compared to a
surface with vegetation.
The researchers use the formula to recommend better bifacial designs for
panels on farmland and the windows of buildings in densely-populated cities.
Transparent, double-sided panels allow solar power to be generated on farmland
without casting shadows that would block crop production. Meanwhile, creating
bifacial windows for buildings would help cities to use more renewable energy.
More
Another weekend and the last shopping weekend before Christmas.
Thankfully, I will be staying
well away from retail harm. Have a great weekend everyone.
Richard Wittington, an honest dreamer, travels to London “where the streets are paved with gold”. Fairy Bow Bells realises his destiny, and supplies him with an introduction to the leading London bitcoin gambler, Bernie Buymore, a 22 year old dropout from the London School of Economics, who’s fighting extradition to America over an unintended flash crash in shady Chicago.
A Panto for modern times. With apologies to Richard Gauntlett
author of pantomime scripts.
The monthly Coppock Indicators
finished November
DJIA: 28,051 +76 Up. NASDAQ: 8,665 +94 Up. SP500: 3,141 +90 Up. All higher again, but it’s
not a buy signal I would follow. I would wait for the next sell signal.
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