Baltic Dry Index. 2116 +08 Brent
Crude 62.63 Spot Gold 1529
Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 36 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.
"When the President does it, that
means it's not illegal."
President Richard Nixon, in a 1977
interview with David Frost
There was high political drama on both sides of the Atlantic
yesterday, but will it bring on another “Black October” for stocks?
I’m inclined to say probably not, since I think a Black
October for stocks was already arriving, and that yesterday’s political theatre
doesn’t really add much more pressure to a global economy already on the rocks.
But back in 1973-1974, when President Nixon was impeached
and finally resigned in disgrace, the whole process wasn’t good for the stock
market, already struggling with inflation and stagnation, and a polarised
nation. A new impeachment move in the US Congress, though unlikely to succeed,
is not going to help.
In the UK political drama, a heavily establishment, internationalist
Supreme Court, delivered it’s “non-Brexit,” “anti-Brexit” verdict, whilst self
servingly protesting its innocence of political motive. Well if they say so, it
must be true I suppose, “but they would say that wouldn’t they,” to bring back
a quote from a long ago distant political scandal.
Whether this very British political drama adds much to
Europe’s dismal future is unlikely, as Europe led by Germany, is already headed
into recession, with a banking crisis to follow, once the recession bites. GB
will tag along behind Europe into recession, no matter which way yesterday’s
decision went.
Below, America sets out to redo the 1970s all over again,
hopefully not.
"I was not lying. I said things that
later on seemed to be untrue."
President Richard Nixon, reflecting on the
Watergate scandal in 1978
Asian stocks rattled as Trump impeachment bid raises new risks
September 25, 2019
/ 2:00 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday after U.S. lawmakers called for an impeachment
inquiry into President Donald Trump, increasing the prospects of prolonged
political uncertainty in the world’s largest economy.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was down 0.82%, Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell 0.63%, while Australian shares fell 0.60%.
Chinese shares slumped and oil futures extended declines after Trump harshly criticised Beijing’s trade practices in a speech at the United Nations, damping hopes for a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war.
The dollar nursed losses against most major currencies as the inquiry sets the stage for a fierce battle between Democrats and Trump’s Republican Party over whether the president sought foreign influence to smear a political rival.
“The impeachment probe has put a dent in Asian shares,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, chief fund manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co in Tokyo.
“Chinese shares were already exposed to downside risks. Trump’s comments likely increased those risks. There are worries about U.S. consumer sentiment. There are also concerns that China’s economic slowdown hasn’t stopped.”
---- The push for an impeachment inquiry and disappointing U.S. economic data weighed on Wall Street on Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 .SPX 0.84% lower, its biggest daily decline in a month.
The U.S. House of Representatives will launch a formal impeachment inquiry over whether Trump sought help from the Ukraine to smear former Vice President Joe Biden, a front-runner for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Trump has denied the claims.
It is unlikely that the impeachment inquiry would lead to Trump’s removal from office. Even if the Democratic-controlled House voted to impeach Trump, the Republican-majority Senate would have to take the next step of removing him from office after a trial.
However, the development injects fresh uncertainty into financial markets, which have already been heavily jostled by emerging global political risks in recent years.
“If an impeachment enquiry looks like ending his re-election chances in 2020, he may throw caution to the wind and harden his attitude to a China trade deal, increasing the chances of a global recession next year,” said Jeffrey Halley, Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA.
---- Trump said on Tuesday Beijing had failed to keep promises it made when China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 and was engaging in predatory practices that had cost millions of jobs in the United States and other countries.
More
Court rules Johnson suspended parliament unlawfully, PM defiant
September 24,
2019 / 12:06 AM / Updated 2 hours ago
LONDON (Reuters)
- The UK Supreme Court ruled on Tuesday that Boris Johnson’s decision to shut
down parliament in the run-up to Brexit was unlawful, but a defiant prime
minister said he disagreed and vowed that Britain would leave the EU by Oct.
31, come what may.
The stinging judgement by all 11 of the court’s sitting justices undermines
Johnson’s already fragile grip on power and gives legislators more scope to try
to stop him taking Britain out of the bloc next month, with or without a
divorce deal.
Responding in New York to the decision, which said that the suspension
was null and void, Johnson said he would respect the ruling but “strongly
disagreed” with it, making clear the setback would make no difference to his
Brexit agenda.
---- “The prime minister’s advice to Her Majesty was unlawful, void and of no effect,” said Hale, adding that parliament was therefore not suspended and it was up to the speakers of its two chambers to decide what to do next.
The speaker of the House of Commons, the lower and much more powerful
chamber, said it would reconvene at 11:30 a.m. (1030 GMT) on Wednesday.
Standing alongside U.S. President Donald Trump at the United Nations,
Johnson was asked if he would resign. “No, no, no,” he replied, while Trump
interjected: “I’ll tell you, I know him well, he’s not going anywhere.”
---- Critics said he had suspended parliament in order to prevent further reverses. A rebel alliance of opposition lawmakers and some from his own Conservative Party had forced through a law requiring Johnson to ask the EU to delay Brexit by three months if no deal was agreed by Oct. 19.
Asked how he planned to overcome that obstacle, Johnson ignored the
question and repeated his view that an Oct. 31 exit was the legal default. He
will return to Britain after giving a speech at the United Nations General
Assembly.
“Tomorrow is another day in parliament,” Johnson said, although what
will ensue there is not clear. He has also not ruled out suspending parliament
again.
More
Finally, in better USA v China trade war news, China needs beans, USA
soybeans. It was the US side that cancelled the Chinese farm visit. President
Trump was surprised and asked why?
"You don't know how to lie. If you
can't lie, you'll never go anywhere."
President Richard Nixon, giving advice to a
political associate
China grants new tariff waivers for US soybean imports
September 24, 2019
BEIJING (REUTERS) - China has granted new waivers to several domestic
state and private firms exempting them from retaliatory tariffs on soybeans
imported from the United States, Bloomberg said, citing unidentified sources
familiar with the matter.
It said the waivers would apply to between two million tonnes and three
million tonnes of US soybeans.
Some of the companies have already bought at least 20 cargoes, or about
1.2 million tonnes of soybeans, on Monday, it added.
China buys 600,000 tons of US soybeans after trade talks
By Evie FordhamPublished September 23, 2019Chinese importers purchased roughly 600,000 tons of U.S. soybeans after deputy-level trade discussions between the U.S. and China last week.
Benchmark U.S. soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade jumped more than 1 percent because of the news, Reuters reported on Monday.
The soybeans will not be shipped out all at once. The roughly 10 boatloads of soybeans will make their way to China between October and December, according to Reuters.
News of the purchase came after Chinese trade officials on Friday canceled their scheduled visit to U.S. farm states, putting a damper on an otherwise seemingly positive few weeks on the trade front.
As the trade war between the U.S. and China continues, delegations from both countries are scheduled to meet for negotiations in October.
A Chinese state news agency reported earlier in September that U.S. soybeans and pork, in addition to some other farm products, will be exempt from additional tariff hikes, easing tensions between the two sides ahead of trade negotiations.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/industrials/china-soybeans-supply-tariff-trade
China trade talks will happen in two weeks, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says
·
Scheduled round of talks still on, after
cancellation of farm visit by Chinese delegation adds uncertainty
·
Donald Trump appears surprised by news of the
visit’s cancellation, which Mnuchin tells him was at US’ request
Teddy Ng Published: 1:00pm, 24
Sep, 2019
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he and US Trade Representative
Robert Lighthizer would hold their scheduled
round of trade negotiations with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He in two weeks’
time.
Mnuchin clarified the progress on the trade negotiations amid
uncertainty following the cancellation of a planned visit to farms in the
United States by Chinese officials, which appeared to surprise US President
Donald Trump.
“I think it’s not next week but the following week we’ll be having those
talks,” Mnuchin said in an interview with US broadcaster Fox Business Network,
adding that the two countries’ negotiators had made some progress in easing
their trade tensions in last week’s deputy-level meetings.
“The president’s been very clear: if we
can get the right deal, he wants the deal,” Mnuchin said. “If we can’t get the
right deal, he’s happy with the tariffs.”
---- Trump was asked on Monday how the
cancellation could affect trade talks, on the sidelines of a meeting with
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and other US officials including
Mnuchin. When Mnuchin confirmed that the US had cancelled the farm visit, Trump
appeared to be surprised.
“They’re going to reschedule that at a different time,” Mnuchin said.
“The timing didn’t work. But that was purely at our request.”
Trump then asked: “Why was that our request? Just out of curiosity.”
“We didn’t want confusion around the trade issues,” Mnuchin replied,
prompting Trump to say: “Yeah, but I want them to buy farm products.”
Mnuchin insisted there was no confusion. “We want them to buy
agriculture,” he said. “They’ve committed to buy agriculture. And they’re doing
that.”
Trump added that China had “committed to buy a lot of agriculture” and
that the US should ship the products as fast as possible.
More
China Goods Exports to US Falling Three Times Faster Than US Exports to China
By September 23, 2019 Updated: September 24, 2019
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
(informally, the U.S.-China Commission or USCC) reported that Chinese
exports to the United States are falling over three times faster than U.S.
exports to China.The U.S. Congressionally-funded USCC found that the goods deficit with China fell to $32.8 billion in July 2019, from $37 billion in July 2018. While U.S. exports to China fell by $1.3 billion, China exports to the United States fell by $4.6 billion, or 353 percent faster.
USCC expects recently announced tariff increases by both the United States and China will lead to further contraction in both imports and exports for the months ahead.
The 2018 total U.S. annual goods deficit with China was $419.3 billion, with a deficit of $223 billion for the first seven months that year. In 2019, the total U.S. goods deficit through July fell to $199.8 billion.
Outsourcing of U.S. goods production is at the center of the Sino-U.S. trade war. It is estimated that U.S. corporate overseas affiliates employed 14.3 million workers mostly in technology, manufacturing, human resources and call centers. That amounts to almost 2.4 times the 6 million unemployed U.S. legal residents, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
More
"People have got to know
whether or not their President is a crook. Well, I'm not a crook. I've earned
everything I've got."
President Richard Nixon at a
November 17, 1973 news conference
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Not
the usual crooks today. Today, some of America’s wealthiest families prepare
for tougher times. What do they know
that we don’t?
The World's Wealthiest Families Are Stockpiling Cash as Recession Fears Grow
Suzanne Woolley and Ben Stupples September 24, 2019
(Bloomberg) -- Rick Stone, a former partner at Cadwalader, Wickersham
& Taft, sees treacherous times ahead for family offices trying to deploy
cash.
The head of Stone Family Office said he doubts the bond market will
provide any real return over the next decade, that equity markets will suffer a
substantial drop and then be flat, and that too much venture capital and
private equity money will continue to chase too few opportunities.
“It’s a very hard time for family offices to allocate money,” said
Stone, 60, whose initial wealth came from class-action litigation fees.
Stone has a good vantage point on the action, since he runs the
bi-monthly meetings of the Palm Beach Investment Research Group, a network of
35 family offices in Palm Beach, Florida. “The areas to invest in are fewer,
and there is a lot of money looking for those spaces,” he said.
That view of the markets is shared by many of the 360 global single- and
multi-family offices surveyed for the 2019 UBS Global Family Office Report,
which was done in conjunction with Campden Research and released Monday. A
majority expect the global economy to enter a recession by 2020, with the
highest percentage of gloomy respondents in emerging markets. About 42% of
family offices around the world are raising cash reserves.
‘More Caution’
“There’s more caution and fear of the public equity markets among
ultra-high-net-worth investors,” said Timothy O’Hara, president of Rockefeller
Global Family Office. “That has more people thinking about private investments,
alternative investments or cash.”
Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, said
this month he thinks there’s a 75% chance of a U.S recession before the
November 2020 presidential election, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg in
August predicted a 35% chance in the next 12 months, up four percentage points
from a month earlier. Meanwhile, the World Bank cut its 2019 global forecast to
the slowest since the financial crisis a decade ago.
Family offices have become a greater force in global financial markets.
Campden estimates that such firms manage around $5.9 trillion. The offices in
the UBS survey had an average of $917 million under management.
Investing results have been mixed for those responding to the
questionnaire, which was conducted between February and March. Average
family-office returns for the 12 months prior to taking the survey were 5.4%,
according to UBS. Developed-market equities were a big disappointment, providing
an average 2.1% return. The highest average gains -- 6.2% -- were for family
offices in the Asia-Pacific and emerging markets regions, followed by 5.9% in
North America and 4.3% in Europe.
More
"I would not like to be a Russian leader. They never know
when they're being taped."
President Richard Nixon
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Using graphene in the production of supercapacitors
24th September 2019
First Graphene Ltd has gained an exclusive licensing agreement with the University of Manchester in order to develop graphene-hybrid materials to be use in supercapacitors.
The licensing agreement, between the University of Manchester and First Graphene Ltd, is for the manufacturing of metal oxide decorated graphene materials, using a proprietary electrochemical process. The materials will have the potential to create a new generation of supercapacitors.Supercapacitors have a myriad of applications. From electric vehicles to elevators, supercapacitors offer high power-density energy storage for a variety of electrical products. The market growth for supercapacitors is predicted at 20% per year. However, such growth will be limited without the suitable materials, like graphene.
Published research by Professsor Robert Dryfe and Professor Ian Kinloch of The University of Manchester reveals how high capacity, microporous materials can be manufactured by the electrochemical processing of graphite raw materials.
The University of Manchester are anticipating that this will be the first step in the mass production of graphene products in the UK.
James Baker, Chief Executive of Graphene@Manchester, said: “We are really pleased with this further development of our partnership with First Graphene. The University’s Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre is playing a key role in supporting the acceleration of graphene products and applications through the development of a critical supply chain of material supply and in the development of applications for industry.
“This latest announcement marks a significant step in our Graphene City developments, which looks to create a unique innovation ecosystem here in the Manchester city-region, the home of graphene.”
Dr Andy Goodwin, Chief Technology Officer of First Graphene Ltd says: “This investment is a direct result of our presence at the Graphene Engineering and Innovation Centre. It emphasises the importance of effective external relationships with university research partners. The programme is also aligned with the UK Government’s Industrial Strategy grand challenges and we’ll be pursuing further support for the development of our business within the UK.”
https://www.scitecheuropa.eu/using-graphene-in-the-production-of-supercapacitors/97237/
"I want to make sure he is a ruthless son of a bitch, do what he's told, that every income tax I want to see I see, that he will go after our enemies and not our friends. Now it's as simple as that. If he doesn't he doesn't get the job."
President Richard Nixon, on appointing an IRS commissioner
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 26,403 +52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down.
SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but
all three shows signs of weakening.
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