Tuesday, 17 September 2019

Oil. Iran. Trump. Stocks. Japan Trade Deal.



Baltic Dry Index. 2311 -01 Brent Crude 68.25  Spot Gold 1498

Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 44 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.

“If you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”

James Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush.

While the big news today, is still about the drone/missile attack on Saudi Arabia, that’s knocked out about half of it’s oil production, more questions arise over who did it and how.

President Trump and America assert, without proof yet, that Iran did it from Iran, which, of course Iran denies.  Yemen’s Houthis claim that they did it with drones sent from Yemen, although given the distance involved and the precision hits, this seems unlikely.

Other unconfirmed reports say that missiles were fired from Iraq, which Iraq denies.

Given the apparent precision and the fact that the incoming attack went undetected, the sophisticated military of America, China, Israel, and Russia all have the capability but little motive for a false flag attack. But does Iran really now have the ability to mount precision stealth missile attacks?

Below, a world strangely indifferent to Saturday’s attack on Saudi Arabia. Does someone know much more than they are letting on, and if they do, who?

Oil trims gains but Middle East risks keep stocks on back foot

September 17, 2019 / 1:53 AM / Updated 2 hours ago
TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil shed some of its massive gains on Tuesday as the United States flagged the possible release of crude reserves, but the threat of military action over the attacks on Saudi oil facilities kept prices elevated and stocks under pressure.

While equity market losses have not been large, shaky investor confidence continued to support safe-haven assets, with gold edging higher on Tuesday and Treasury prices rising. 

Investors otherwise broadly remained on the sidelines ahead of an expected interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the next round of U.S.-China trade talks on Thursday.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was down 0.6%. 
Chinese shares .CSI300 fell 0.85%, while Australian shares were down 0.27%.

“There is certainly a risk-off tone, but I’m surprised the markets are not reacting more,” said Tsutomu Soma, general manager of fixed income business solutions at SBI Securities in Tokyo.

“The U.S. and other countries have oil reserves, which helps sentiment in a case like this. You also have a lot of positions riding on the Fed meeting.”

Brent crude, the international benchmark, LCOc1 fell 1.78% to $67.79 per barrel in Asia on Tuesday. On Monday Brent surged by 14.6% for its biggest one-day percentage gain since at least 1988.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 futures were down 1.92% to $61.69 per barrel in Asia following a 14.7% surge on Monday, the biggest one-day gain since December 2008.

Saturday’s attack on Saudi oil facilities has halved the kingdom’s oil output, creating the biggest disruption to global oil supplies in absolute terms since the overthrow of the Iranian Shah in 1979, International Energy Agency data show.

U.S. President Donald Trump has authorised the release of emergency crude stockpiles if needed, which could ease some upward pressure on crude futures.
More

Oil prices see historic spike; Trump says Iran appears to be behind Saudi attack

Sept. 16, 2019 / 7:22 AM / Updated Sept. 16, 2019 at 8:45 PM
Sept. 16 (UPI) -- Weekend drone strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure have effectively wiped out about 5 percent of the global daily production, sending oil prices skyrocketing to historic levels Monday.

Brent prices were up to $66.70 a barrel -- while the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, also climbed to $63.11. In London, prices for Brent, the international benchmark for crude oil, jumped $12 a barrel, the largest increase since the late 1980s. 

U.S. President Donald Trump met Monday with top administration officials at the White House to discuss how to respond.

"Remember when Iran shot down a drone, saying knowingly that it was in their 'airspace' when, in fact, it was nowhere close. They stuck strongly to that story knowing that it was a very big lie," he tweeted. "Now they say that they had nothing to do with the attack on Saudi Arabia. We'll see?"

Later in the day Trump said it appears Iran was behind the attack, adding that the United States was having some "very strong studies done" to determine who the culprit was.

"It's certainly looking that way at this moment. And we'll let you know. As soon as we find out definitively, we'll let you know. But it does look that way," he said.

The president added he does not want war with Iran, but boasted that the United States has the "strongest military in the world."

"I don't want war with anybody. But we're prepared more than anybody," he said.

Trump also declared that he has not promised Saudis protections and said they may have to pay for protection.

"The Saudis are going to have a lot of involvement in this if we decide to do something. They'll be very much involved and that includes payment and they understand that fully," he said.

---- The Iranian-supported Houthi rebel group in Yemen claimed responsibility. Monday, the group threatened more attacks. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, however, said there is "no evidence the attacks came from Yemen."

A Saudi military spokesman said Monday a preliminary investigation showed the weapons used against the facilities were Iranian. Col. Turki al-Malki said the attacks didn't originate in Yemen and the investigations were underway to determine where they originated.

The Iran-backed Houthis threatened additional attacks against Aramco, the Saudi-owned oil company.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2019/09/16/Oil-prices-see-historic-spike-Trump-says-Iran-appears-to-be-behind-Saudi-attack/4521568628618/?ts_=8

Saudi Aramco may take months to resume normal output volumes - sources

September 16, 2019 / 10:21 AM
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Aramco’s full return to normal oil production volumes “may take months”, two sources briefed on the company’s operations said on Monday, after attacks on Saudi oil plants knocked out more than half of the country’s output.

“It is still bad,” one source said.

On Sunday, an industry source briefed on the developments told Reuters that Saudi Arabia’s oil exports will continue as normal this week as the kingdom taps into stocks from its large storage facilities, but that Aramco may have to cut exports later if the outage in output continued for long.

Explainer: Attack on Saudi leaves world without spare oil capacity

September 16, 2019 / 12:08 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - The strike on the heartland of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, including damage to the world’s biggest petroleum-processing facility, has driven oil prices to their highest level in nearly four months.

Here are some facts about the impact on oil supply and spare capacity:

WHY IS IT SO DISRUPTIVE FOR GLOBAL OIL SUPPLIES?

The attack on Saudi oil facilities on Saturday not only knocked out over half of the country’s production, it also removed almost all the spare capacity available to compensate for any major disruption in oil supplies worldwide. 

The attack cut 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Saudi crude output, over 5 percent of the world’s supply. But the attack also constrained Saudi Arabia’s ability to use the more than 2 million bpd of spare oil production capacity it held for emergencies.

The kingdom has for years been the only major oil producing country that has kept significant spare capacity that it could start up quickly to compensate for any deficiency in supply caused by war or natural disaster.

Most other countries cannot afford to drill expensive wells and install infrastructure, then maintain it idle.

Before the attack, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) global supply cushion was just over 3.21 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Saudi Arabia - the defacto leader of OPEC - had 2.27 million bpd of that capacity. That leaves around 940,000 bpd of spare capacity, mostly held by Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Iraq and Angola also have some spare capacity. They may now bring that production online to help plug some of the gap left by Saudi Arabia - but it won’t be enough.

HAVEN’T OPEC AND ITS ALLIES BEEN CUTTING OUTPUT? CAN’T THEY JUST REVERSE THOSE CUTS?

Yes, OPEC and its allies such as Russia have cut output to prevent prices from weakening because the market has been oversupplied.

Those cuts aimed to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd. But much of that was from Saudi Arabia so it now cannot be reversed quickly.

Non-OPEC members such as Russia are pumping near capacity, with perhaps only 100,000-150,000 bpd of available additional production.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-capacity-explainer/explainer-attack-on-saudi-leaves-world-without-spare-oil-capacity-idUKKBN1W00V9

In other news, a mixed bag as we await the Federal Reserve’s next meeting.

Expectations suddenly are rising that the Fed might not cut interest rates this week

Surging energy prices Monday helped add to sentiment that the Federal Reserve suddenly might not be in such a hurry to cut interest rates.

While markets still see the central bank lowering its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter point at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the case for continued cuts seemingly has gotten weaker. Traders in the fed funds futures market on Monday were pricing in a 34% chance that the Fed will stay put on rates; the probability was zero a month ago and just 5.4% a week ago, according to the CME.
More

U.S., Chinese trade deputy talks to start on Thursday - USTR

September 16, 2019 / 10:01 PM / Updated 3 hours ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Deputy-level U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled to start in Washington on Thursday, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said on Monday, paving the way for high-level talks in October aimed at resolving a bitter, 14-month trade war.

A USTR spokesman did not offer any further details about the deputy-level talks.
More

Trump says U.S. reaches trade deals with Japan, no word on cars

September 16, 2019 / 11:33 PM / Updated an hour ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday Washington had struck trade agreements with Tokyo that could be implemented without congressional approval, but stopped short of assuring Japan that new tariffs would not be slapped on vital auto exports.

In a letter to the U.S. Congress released by the White House, Trump said that he intends to enter into the agreements on tariff barriers and digital trade “in the coming weeks” and was notifying lawmakers that the tariff deal would be made under a trade law provision allowing the U.S. president to make reciprocal tariff reductions by proclamation.

“In addition, I also will be entering into an Executive Agreement with Japan regarding digital trade,” Trump said in the letter.
More

Japan seeks to confirm no additional tariffs on auto exports to U.S. - Motegi

September 17, 2019 / 4:38 AM / Updated an hour ago
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan plans to reconfirm in the final stage of trade talks with the United States that Washington will not impose additional tariffs on Japanese vehicles and auto parts, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the United States has reached initial trade agreements with Japan on tariff barriers and digital trade. 

The announcement left unclear whether Trump has agreed not to impose national security tariffs on Japanese vehicles and auto parts. Avoiding the “Section 232” tariffs of up to 25% was a major motivating factor for Tokyo in negotiating with Washington on trade.
More

Supreme Court hears cases that PM Johnson's parliament suspension was illegal

September 17, 2019 / 12:10 AM / Updated 3 hours ago
LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government will seek to persuade Britain’s top court this week that his decision to suspend parliament until shortly before the date for Brexit was not illegal as Scottish judges concluded last week.

---- In a damning judgement, Scotland’s highest court ruled last Wednesday that the suspension was unlawful and was an “egregious” attempt to stymie parliament. 

However, a week earlier the High Court of England and Wales rejected a similar case, saying the matter was political and not one for judicial interference.
More

South Korea confirms first swine fever outbreak

Issued on:
South Korea on Tuesday reported its first cases of African swine fever, becoming the latest country hit by the disease that has killed pigs from China to North Korea, pushing up pork prices worldwide.

Five pigs found dead at a farm in Paju, a city near the inter-Korean border, were confirmed to have been infected with the virus, an official with Seoul's agriculture ministry told AFP.

"At this point, it's too early to confirm if the case stemmed from the North," the official added.
Seoul's agriculture minister Kim Hyun-soo said 3,950 pigs from three farms in Paju were to be culled.

The virus is not harmful to humans but causes haemorrhagic fever in pigs that is almost always fatal.

There is no antidote or vaccine and the only known way to prevent the disease from spreading is a mass cull of affected livestock.

---- There are around 6,700 pig farms across South Korea and pig farming accounts for 40 percent of 
the total livestock industry.

In May, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization said pork prices had risen by up to 50 percent both in China and on the Chicago futures exchange as a result of the outbreak.

Last month, it said almost five million pigs in Asia had died or been culled because of the spread of the disease.

“I sometimes get the impression that many U.S. media outlets work according to a principle which was common in the Soviet Union. Back then, people used to joke that the newspaper Pravda [Truth] had no truth in it, and the Izvestia [News] paper has no news in it. I get the impression that many U.S. media operate in the same way.”

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.


Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, Hong Kong again. Beijing finds a capitalist scapegoat. From far away London, both sides seem to have unrealistic notions. The protestors seem to think that London or Washington are going to come riding in and force change in Beijing. They are wrong, they won’t do more than urge China to take a long term, light handed approach. Hong Kong is part of China now.

Beijing is wrong to misrepresent the protests as little more than violent terrorism stirred up by Washington and London. Another US “colour revolution” failing. The UK is not so foolish to try, while Washington is unlikely to try under Trump, though probably happy to see China stuck with an almost unsolvable problem.

The protestors, though, need to rapidly get more realistic in their aspirations, and drop the counter-productive violence altogether. Scapegoating  Li Ka-shing won’t solve any problems.

Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing hits back at ‘unwarranted’ accusations he condones crime and caused city’s housing crisis

·         Li had urged those in power to ‘provide a way out’ for the young people involved in protests, describing them as the ‘masters of our future’
·         Tycoon says it is regrettable his remarks were misinterpreted after pro-Beijing commentary attacked him for showing leniency
Published: 7:28pm, 13 Sep, 2019

Tycoon Li Ka-shing has hit back at an “unwarranted” attack from Beijing’s political and legal affairs commission over his comments on Hong Kong’s ongoing anti-government protests.

An article published on Thursday in an official WeChat account of the party department accused the 91-year-old billionaire of condoning crime and causing the city’s housing crisis.

Li had urged those in power to “provide a way out” for the young demonstrators, describing them as the “masters of our future”. He said the protesters should consider the city’s overall interests too.

He also said that on political issues, justice might have to be tempered with mercy.

The commentary seized on his phrase “provide a way out”, and said showing leniency towards those who had broken the law was “nothing more than condoning crime”.

“This is not about thinking about Hong Kong, but watching Hong Kong slip into the abyss,” it said.

It also suggested that  Li, as a major developer in Hong Kong, should be the one providing “a way out” for Hongkongers, as the city’s housing woes were believed to be a major deep-rooted cause of increasingly violent protests now in their fourth month.

The tycoon responded in a statement issued through his Li Ka Shing Foundation, saying it was regrettable that his remarks had been misinterpreted, adding that he had been “accustomed to unwarranted accusations for many years”.

“But the most important thing is, tolerance does not mean connivance and disregarding any legal procedures,” it said.

Li emphasised that he was opposed to any violence and hoped all parties would not “incite conflict”, but make room instead to cool down and initiate dialogue in Hong Kong.

The commentary also focused on Li’s role as a major developer in a city gripped by severe housing shortages and some of the highest property prices in the world.

It quoted angry online comments, including one asking: “Why doesn’t Li’s family give people a way out when Hong Kong citizens fail to pay the mortgage on your homes?”

It quoted another who said: “Why doesn’t Li’s family offer discounts to the ‘masters of our future’ for their housing? That would be more effective to stabilise Hong Kong’s situation!”

The commentary argued that skyrocketing housing prices were “undoubtedly” one of the key causes of the ongoing unrest.

“Many young people in Hong Kong have vented their dissatisfaction and even anger to the government over the expensive home prices and high rents,” it said. “But they have made a mistake on the target. Who is benefiting from the skyrocketing home prices? The answer is not difficult to guess.”

The article came a day after the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong placed a front-page advertisement in a local newspaper urging the city’s embattled government to invoke the Lands Resumption Ordinance to take back idle rural land held by developers and use it to ease the housing shortage.

The commentary concluded by asking whether Li had read the advert, saying: “Will developers like Li, who make money by hoarding land, provide ‘a way out’ for Hong Kong citizens? And for Hong Kong’s future?”
More


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Toyota Wants to Build a Solar Car That Can Run Forever

Toyota Motor Corp. has teamed up with Sharp Corp. and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan to build a car that could potentially run forever.
September 14th, 2019

A new project by Toyota Motor Corp., Sharp Corp. and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan, or NEDO, is seeking to build a Prius that could essentially run forever. They aim to do this through a solar-powered car.

RELATED: HYUNDAI UNVEILS SOLAR ROOF CHARGING CAR THAT REPLENISHES UP TO 60% OF BATTERY

Independent of charging facilities

“The solar car’s advantage is that — while it can’t drive for a long range — it’s really independent of charging facilities,” told Bloomberg Koji Makino, a project manager at Toyota.

Solar-powered cars offer the advantage of not needing to be plugged anywhere. If a battery can be created that can give the car power at night it could potentially run forever.

We are a long way from that though. Currently, a Prius plug-in hybrid that sells for more than 3 million yen has solar panels as an option. 

However, the vehicle only charges when parked and the maximum amount of power for driving only lasts about 6 kilometers (about 4 miles). Still, the team has made some impressive breakthroughs in its new research and development involving a new solar-powered Prius that has been tested since July.

For starters, they have produced solar panels that convert sunlight at an efficiency level of more than 34%, compared with about 20% for current panels on the market. Furthermore, they have engineered solar cells of about 0.03 mm thick that can be placed on the car's roof, hood and hatchback.

This means that the car can be equipped with an electrical system that can charge the vehicle even when it’s on the move. Mitsuhiro Yamazaki, director at the solar energy systems division of NEDO, states that if the car is only driven four days a week for a maximum of 50 kilometers a day, it does not need to be plugged in anywhere.
https://interestingengineering.com/toyota-wants-to-build-a-solar-car-that-can-run-forever
"The leaders of the French Revolution excited the poor against the rich; this made the rich poor, but it never made the poor rich."
Fisher Ames.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August

DJIA: 26,403 +52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down. SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.

An inconclusive month, but all three shows signs of weakening. 

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