Baltic Dry Index. 2312 -19 Brent Crude 60.22
Spot Gold 1489
Never ending Brexit now October 31,
maybe. 46 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs
Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to
November, maybe.
Each success only buys an admission ticket to a more difficult
problem.
Henry Kissinger
Today’ special update, Europe’s growing
problem with aging wind turbines and
“windmills,” the power generating type,
not those 18th an 19th century wooden ones pumping water or grinding
grain.
But first this still developing dramatic
oil news from Saudi Arabia. Be ready for an oil price spike this week. With America
already blaming Iran for the attack, we could be heading for a new Middle East
war imminently.
Attacks on Saudi oil facilities knock out half the kingdom's supply
September 14, 2019 / 5:18 AM
RIYADH/DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) - Yemen’s
Iran-aligned Houthi group said it attacked two plants at the heart of Saudi
Arabia’s oil industry on Saturday, knocking out more than half the Kingdom’s
output, in a move expected to send oil prices soaring and increase tensions in
the Middle East.
The attacks
will cut the kingdom’s output by 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd), according
to a statement from state-run oil company Saudi Aramco, or more than 5% of
global oil supply.
The pre-dawn
strikes follow earlier cross-border attacks on Saudi oil installations and on
oil tankers in Gulf waters, but these were the most brazen yet, temporarily
crippling much of the nation’s production capacity. Saudi Arabia is the world’s
biggest exporter, shipping more than 7 million barrels of oil to global
destinations every day, and for years has served as the supplier of last resort
to markets.
While the
Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, U.S. Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo put the blame squarely on Iran, writing on Twitter that there was “no
evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”
“Amid all
the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on
the world’s energy supply,” Pompeo said.
---- The U.S. Department of Energy also said it was ready to release oil from its strategic petroleum reserve if necessary. Energy Secretary Rick Perry also said his department would work with the International Energy Agency, which coordinates energy policies of industrialised nations, if global action is needed.
Saudi
Arabia, leading a Sunni Muslim coalition that intervened in Yemen in 2015
against the Houthis, has blamed regional rival Shi’ite Iran for previous
attacks, which Tehran denies. Riyadh accuses Iran of arming the Houthis, a
charge denied by the group and Tehran.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-aramco-fire/attacks-on-saudi-oil-facilities-knock-out-half-the-kingdoms-supply-idUKKCN1VZ01R
By Julian Lee
Abqaiq facility
processes half Saudi Arabia’s oil production
Middle East geopolitics have come back with a vengeance to hit the oil market. What everybody feared has happened. An attack has penetrated the defenses of Saudi Arabia’s massive Abqaiq oil processing facility, the heart of the kingdom’s oil production and export infrastructure, causing an unknown amount of damage.
Attack on Saudi Oil Plant Is What Everyone Feared: Oil Strategy
By Julian Lee
·
·
Expect a price spike and releases from emergency
stockpiles
Middle East geopolitics have come back with a vengeance to hit the oil market. What everybody feared has happened. An attack has penetrated the defenses of Saudi Arabia’s massive Abqaiq oil processing facility, the heart of the kingdom’s oil production and export infrastructure, causing an unknown amount of damage.
More
Now back to boring wind turbines. While those
centuries old fashioned windmills were meant and built to last for years and
years, not so our late 20th and early 21st century ones.
They weren’t really built to last at all. Often put up in a rush to cash in on
government subsidies.
Now, many without refurbishing, are nearing the end of their working life. But is it economic to refurbish or replace them? And what happens to that giant concrete plug in the ground,
that the wind turbine stands on, if they're not replaced?
65GW of European Onshore Wind Turbines Need Upgrades or Replacements by 2028
With more wind turbines in Europe reaching end-of-design-life, regulation will be essential to preserving wind capacity.
September 11, 2019
While upgrading components to extend the life of a turbine — the LTE option — is much cheaper than alternative options available, not all asset owners will choose to implement a LTE solution.
The decision to extend the operational lifetime of turbine assets depends on asset owner strategies, project economics and site and turbine operating conditions.
Distributed sites — those with three or less turbines — are economically less suitable for operating beyond design lifetime with considerable refurbishment and/or upgrade work. Larger sites need to balance regulatory issues, financial risks, technical challenges and operational challenges to make lifetime extensions economically viable.
Complete turbine repowering is one of the solutions proposed to maintain the existing capacity of the European onshore wind turbine fleet. This involves the wholesale replacement of old turbines with new technology.
However, the costs of new technology, permitting issues, regulatory hurdles and asset owner resources make repowering a daunting proposition for many operators. LTE is an alternative to decommissioning or complete repowering.
Wood Mackenzie has identified 42 gigawatts of turbines reaching end-of-life by 2028 that have a commercially available LTE solution.
The leading onshore wind markets in Europe — Germany, Spain, UK and France — are unlikely to meet 2020 renewable energy targets. New regulation is needed to prevent wholesale removal of wind generation capacity.
Providing regulatory support for LTE projects is one way to preserve existing capacity.
Currently, minimal regulatory support is offered for repowered and LTE projects, forcing asset owners to operate in a merchant power market. However, the introduction of the post-2020 Renewable Energy Directive should provide clarity for asset owners to decide on whether to decommission, repower, or extend the lifetime of their onshore wind assets.
The success of the LTE strategy requires balancing and mitigating a number of risks.
Just under half of LTE-suitable turbines are situated on small or distributed project sites. Project and supply chain economics mean that small and distributed sites are less ideal candidates for extensive turbine refurbishment and component upgrades as part of the LTE solution. Asset owners can potentially operate these turbines beyond the original design lifetime with minimal upgrades if sufficient operating reserves remain.
LTE for
onshore wind is still in its infancy. Upgrade packages offered for turbine
classes are not a one-size-fits-all solution either. It's too early to assess
the operational longevity of turbines with an implemented LTE solution. More
sophisticated and complex refurbishment, upgrade and operations packages will
increase the post end-of-life operational lifetime but need to be balanced
against costs.
Depending on
the level of retrofits and upgrades performed on a turbine, LTE solutions can
be costly. In addition, older turbines require higher maintenance spending as
the risk of capital component failures rise. Insurers will price the risk of
running older turbines past design-lifetimes, which could see premiums rise.
These costs must be weighed up against the revenues in a merchant power market.
Energy trading or corporate PPAs can be implemented to provide cash flow
security.
Capital
component failures remain the biggest operational risk and can be costly enough
to eliminate the economic impact of running lifetime extended assets. Supply of
spare parts may also be a concern for less popular technologies or from defunct
OEMs.
Wind Turbines Leave Behind Hard-To-Manage Waste
09/13/2019
Over the
last two years, Rob Van Vleet has been slowly scrapping the last vestiges of
Kimball, Nebraska’s first wind farm. The wind turbines are made to be sturdy,
he said, but they don’t last forever—about 20 years.
While most
of a turbine can be recycled or find a second life on another wind farm,
researchers estimate the U.S. will have more than 720,000 tons of blade
material to dispose of over the next 20 years, a figure that doesn’t include
newer, taller, higher-capacity versions.
There aren’t
many options to recycle or trash blades, and what options there are is
expensive, partly because the U.S. wind industry is so young. It’s a waste
problem that runs counter to what the industry is held up to be: a perfect
solution for environmentalists looking to combat climate change, an attractive
investment for companies like Budweiser and Hormel Foods and a job creator
across the Midwest and Great Plains.
At the end
of a long gravel road on the southwest Nebraska prairie, the Kimball Wind
Project is caught in the breeze. But the turbine scrap area looks more like a
sci-fi drama set. Van Vleet climbed atop a 127-foot-long turbine blade, and
walked the length like a plank.
“These
towers may be supporting as much as 150,000 pounds, 250 feet in the air,” Van
Vleet said. “The stands are an inch and a half thick steel… so they’re very
strong.”
Van Vleet
said 90 percent of a turbine’s parts can be recycled or sold. But the blades,
made of a tough but pliable mix of resin and fiberglass—similar to what
spaceship parts are made from—are a different story.
“The blades
are kind of a dud because they have no value,” he said.
Decommissioned
blades are also notoriously difficult and expensive to transport. They can be
anywhere from 100 to 300 feet long, and need to be cut up onsite before getting
trucked away on specialized equipment—which costs money—to the landfill.
Once there,
Van Vleet said, the size of the blades can put landfills in a tough spot.
“If you’re
small utility or municipality and all of a sudden hundreds of blades start
coming to your landfill, you don’t want to use up your capacity for your local
municipal trash for wind turbine blades,” he said, adding that permits for more
landfill space adds another layer of expenses.
Cindy
Langstrom manages the turbine blade disposal project for the municipal landfill
in Casper, Wyoming. Though her landfill is one of the only ones in the
state—not to mention the entire U.S.—with enough space to take wind farm waste,
she said the blades’ durability initially posed a financial hurdle.
“Our
crushing equipment is not big enough to crush them,” she said.
Langstrom’s
team eventually settled on cutting up the blades into three pieces and stuffing
the two smaller sections into the third, which was cheaper than renting
stronger crushing machines that are usually made for mining.
More
Sunday September 15th 1940
Details of the mornings action
Details of the mornings action
Sunday
September 15th 1940, was not only the turning point of the Battle of Britain,
it was the turning point of the whole war. Every Fighter Command aerodrome in
11 Group was in some way involved, every squadron within 11 Group participated
as well as the Duxford Wing from 12 Group and a number of squadrons in 10 Group
were called upon to protect areas in the south west. Ground crews at all 11
Group airfields had to make efficiency a top priority in getting aircraft
refueled and rearmed in between sorties, while at 11 Group Headquarters Air
Vice Marshal Keith Park busily controlled the situation drawing on all his
experience and expertise under the watchful eye of visiting Winston Churchill
who saw first hand the development of activities on this important day. Air
Chief Marshal Hugh Dowding remained at Fighter Command Headquarters keeping
silent vigil over the large map below indicating to him the events and the
unfolding battle that was taking place over the south-east of England.
For Adolf Hitler and the German
commanders, time was now running out. If an invasion was to take place on
September 17th as planned, the lead-up would have to commence no later than
today.....September 15th. The weather had shown, just how quickly it can turn
at this time of year, and with winter not too far away, the German forces would
have to take advantage of the better conditions that now seemed to prevail.
Göring had sent out the instructions the day previous to all bomber and fighter
bases that preparations for an all out assault on England was to be made on
this day September 15th, bomber units were given times and flight paths of
their attack. Over the last few weeks, the Luftwaffe had experimented with
different flying formations, needless to say, none had really been successful,
losses had still been high, but they had discovered that on the occasions that
they had kept at high altitudes, they had on a number of occasions surprised
Fighter Command.
This was mainly due to the fact that the
British radar was ineffective above 20,000 feet, and by flying at a height
above this level they could cross the Channel undetected, but, the Germans did
not know this. All that they were aware of, was the fact that those formations
that flew at higher altitudes were not intercepted until they were usually well
over the English coast. The most logical reason for this, thought the Germans
was due to the fact that it took the British fighters much longer to gain the
required height to intercept.
The sending of advance Ju87 and Bf110
units to bomb the radar stations along the southern coastline was, in the
opinion of the Luftwaffe, a waste of time. As fast as they seemed to be
destroyed, they were back in operational use again, and mobile units too were
brought in to replace any radar station damaged. Over the last few days, the
Germans had practiced at electronic jamming, this, they believed was successful
and plans were made to intensify the jamming procedure in an effort to further
reduce detection.
The spirit of the German aircrew, was
still far from high. Time and time again, they had been told that the 'Glorious
Luftwaffe' is ready to strike the final blow. But they had been told that in
July, and again in August when Adlerangriff had been announced, and it was to
be repeated yet again this September 15th. Early in the Battle of Britain, the
Luftwaffe aircrews were told that the Royal Air Force would be wiped out in two
or three weeks, now, whenever they fly over the British countryside they are
still met with masses of British fighters in the hands of pilots that were
gaining in skill and techniques. Many firmly believed that they were no nearer
victory than they were two months previous.
----In
Britain, things were slightly different. Most of the pilots were relatively
fresh unlike their German counterparts. Combat action had been very infrequent,
with only one really heavy day. As mentioned previously, Fighter Command was
now stronger than it had been for weeks, aerodromes repaired, planes and
personnel had replaced many that had been shot down and the radar stations were
all functioning at 100%.
Park meanwhile, was prepared. He had
learnt just a few days previous that there was to be a large scale attack prior
to the impending invasion, only that he was unsure as to the exact date or
time. Whatever attack that the Germans planned, he was sure, that 11 Group was
ready even though the Luftwaffe commanders could not agree as to the actual
strength of Fighter Command at the time.
----To survive any intense attack that may be instigated by the
Luftwaffe, Keith Park had, in the last few days rearranged some of his
squadrons, carefully placing them in the best strategic position to provide the
best defence of London that he possibly could. Of course, we must remember,
that the pilots of Fighter Command had no idea of any large scale attack being
made by the Luftwaffe. This information was only known by a selected few in
radio interception (the "Y" Force) and the Air Ministry and of
course, Dowding and Park himself. To the pilots, any change they thought was
the usual relieving of tired squadrons.
It was not long after breakfast
that Keith Park new that today was to different from all others, for the first
time in a week, he had been notified that there was a build up of German
formations along the enemy coast. 'This, I think is what we have been waiting
for' he said, ' I think that it is about to happen.'
WEATHER:
Heavy cloud and rain periods overnight was expected to clear and the forecast for the day was fine in most areas with patchy cloud. No rain was forecast but some areas could expect an odd shower to develop. The cloud was expected to clear during the afternoon giving way to a fine and clear evening.
Heavy cloud and rain periods overnight was expected to clear and the forecast for the day was fine in most areas with patchy cloud. No rain was forecast but some areas could expect an odd shower to develop. The cloud was expected to clear during the afternoon giving way to a fine and clear evening.
More
The "hour of destiny" was
September 15th, a date thereafter commemorated as "Battle of Britain
Day". The title has been disputed; Alfred Price, for one, says that
September 15th "has singularly little to commend it.....the day when the
British victory claim was furthest from the truth....." Yet, forgetting
the "numbers game", it is hard to dispute Churchill's verdict that it
was, in fact, "the crux of the Battle of Britain". He made that
judgment in the light of his knowledge of what happened to Operation SEALION -
which was, of course, from beginning to end, what the Battle of Britain was
really about. The Official History sums up with clarity:
"If
15th August showed the German High Command that air supremacy was not to be won
within a brief space, 15th September went far to convince them that it would
not be won at all."
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 26,403
+52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down. SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but all three shows signs of weakening.
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