Baltic Dry Index. 2462 -37 Brent
Crude 62.16 Spot Gold 1510
Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 52 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.
Alan Schwartz, CEO Bear Stearns, March 12, 2008.
Bust March 16, 2008.
This morning we focus on Asia, where several troubling,
if different, problems are surfacing.
The USA v China trade war is now on the cusp of
triggering the next global recession, if it hasn’t already triggered its start.
While Asia and US stock markets last week placed great
expectation on next month’s coming renewed trade talks between the USA and
China, I suspect that 20 months of escalating trade and currency wars has
already killed the goose that laid the golden eggs. Worse, China has delivered
its clearest warning yet that it will intervene
in Hong Kong. Those trade talks may never happen.
With central banksters all but out of ammo and ideas,
Brexit still to come, Germany leading the EU into recession, a new USA v EU
trade war due to start in November, and some 17 trillion dollars worth of
global negative interest rate bonds generating havoc in the global financial
system, (with more to come in any new recession. See yesterday’s Special
Update: E-Dollars. Funny Money. Get Gold,) I doubt that whatever the outcome of
next month’s trade talks, that the global economy can now avoid a new
recession.
Making matters worse, African Swine Fever has now jumped
into the Philippines. With the great US farm harvest underway, but with no
market in China for most US grains, a farm belt recession is about to get added
to a developing manufacturing recession.
Stocks are a sell, in my opinion, not a buy.
Asian markets gain as investors weigh latest economic data
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: Sept 8, 2019 11:28
p.m. ET
Asian markets were generally higher in early trading
Monday, as investors continued to digest recent economic data.On Sunday, a new report showed China’s trade with the U.S dropped sharply in August, as new tariffs by both sides were announced. Imports of American goods tumbled 22% in August from a year earlier to $10.3 billion, customs data showed Sunday. Exports to the United States, China’s biggest market, sank 16% to $44.4 billion.
More tariffs went into effect on Sept. 1, and the next round of tariffs on Chinese goods is scheduled to take effect Oct. 15. Last week, the U.S. and China said they have agreed to renew trade negotiations in early October.
On Monday, the Japanese government released revised economic growth data for the April-June quarter. The Cabinet Office said gross domestic product, or GDP — the total value of a nation’s goods and services — had grown at an annual rate of 1.3%.
That was slightly lower than the earlier estimate for 1.8% growth. The data showed that private demand had grown at a slower rate but government investment had risen higher than the earlier estimate.
Japan’s Nikkei NIK, +0.51% rose 0.5% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.04% slipped 0.1%, as pro-democracy protests continued over the weekend. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.38% gained 0.4% and the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, +1.13% advanced 0.9%. South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +0.58% rose 0.6%, while benchmark indexes in Taiwan Y9999, +0.09% , Singapore STI, +0.15% and Indonesia JAKIDX, +0.21% made slight gains. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.06% edged up 0.1%.
---- “A mixed set of leads sets Asia up for a muted start to a week focused on monetary policy. China’s trade data had been one to disappoint over the weekend after further monetary stimulus announcements,” said Jingyi Pan, market strategist at IG in Singapore.
U.S. stock indexes finished last week little changed after a day of mostly quiet trading capped the S&P 500’s second straight weekly gain.
Traders had a muted reaction to new data showing that U.S. employers added fewer than expected jobs in August. The report also indicated more people entered the workforce last month, wages rose more than expected and the unemployment rate remained near the lowest level in five decades.
The jobs report was the latest in a mixed batch of economic data that investors scrutinized this week in search of clues about how the economy is weathering the costly trade war between the U.S. and China. Their concern: tariffs that each side has imposed on billions of goods may be dampening global economic growth and threatening to nudge the United States into a recession.
Mixed economic data aside, investors have been encouraged this week by news that envoys from Washington and Beijing plan to begin another round of trade talks next month.
----Markets have been turbulent in recent weeks as worries about the trade war have waxed and waned. But Wall Street got a modest bounce Friday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is not expecting a U.S. or global recession. In remarks at a conference in Switzerland, Powell noted that the Fed is monitoring a number of uncertainties, including trade conflicts, adding the Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
Economists said Friday’s jobs report did little to change their forecasts for the Fed to cut interest rates at its meeting in two weeks. Treasury yields dipped following the report, and traders remain nearly certain that the Fed will cut short-term rates by a quarter of a percentage point.
More
China will not tolerate attempts to separate Hong Kong from China - state media
September 9,
2019 / 1:44 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Hong Kong is an inseparable part of China and any
form of secessionism “will be crushed”, state media said on Monday, a day after
demonstrators rallied at the U.S. consulate to ask for help in bringing
democracy to city.
The China Daily newspaper said Sunday’s rally in Hong Kong was proof
that foreign forces were behind the protests, which began in mid-June, and
warned that demonstrators should “stop trying the patience of the central
government”.
Chinese officials have accused foreign forces of trying to hurt Beijing
by creating chaos in Hong Kong over a hugely unpopular extradition bill that
would have allowed suspects to be tried in Communist Party-controlled courts.
----
“Hong Kong is an inseparable part of China — and that is the bottom line no one
should challenge, not the demonstrators, not the foreign forces playing their
dirty games,” the China Daily said in an editorial.
---- “The demonstrations in Hong Kong are not about rights or democracy. They are a result of foreign interference. Lest the central government’s restraint be misconstrued as weakness, let it be clear secessionism in any form will be crushed,” it said.
State news agency Xinhua said in a separate commentary that the rule of
law needed to be manifested and that Hong Kong could pay a larger and heavier
penalty should the current situation continue.
China's August exports unexpectedly shrink, imports remain weak
September 8,
2019 / 4:42 AM
Beijing is widely expected to announce more support measures in coming
weeks to avert the risk of a sharper economic slowdown as the United States
ratchets up trade pressure, including the first cuts in some key lending rates
in four years.
On Friday, the central bank cut banks’ reserve requirements for the
seventh time since early 2018 to free up more funds for lending, days after a
cabinet meeting signalled that more policy loosening may be imminent.
August exports fell 1% from a year earlier, the biggest fall since June,
when it fell 1.3%, customs data showed on Sunday. Analysts had expected a 2.0%
rise in a Reuters poll after July’s 3.3% gain.
That’s despite analyst expectations that looming tariffs may have
prompted some Chinese exporters to bring forward or “front-load” U.S.-bound
shipments into August, a trend seen earlier in the trade dispute.
Many analysts expect export growth to slow further in coming months, as
evidenced by worsening export orders in both official and private factory
surveys. More U.S. tariff measures will take effect on Oct. 1 and Dec. 15.
Sunday’s data also showed China’s imports shrank for the fourth
consecutive month since April. Imports dropped 5.6% on-year in August, slightly
less than an expected 6.0% fall and unchanged from July’s 5.6% decline.
Sluggish domestic demand was likely the
main factor in the decline, along with softening global commodity prices.
China’s domestic consumption and investment have remained weak despite more
than a year of growth boosting measures.
More
China August copper imports, aluminium exports fall as slowdown bites
September 8,
2019 / 5:39 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s unwrought copper imports fell in August
after a bounce in the previous month, customs data showed on Sunday, as a
slowdown in the world’s top copper consumer raises concerns over demand for the
metal, while aluminium exports also dipped.
Arrivals of unwrought copper, including anode, refined and semi-finished
copper products into China stood at 404,000 tonnes last month, the General
Administration of Customs said. That was down 3.8% from 420,000 tonnes in July
and also down 3.8% year-on-year.
The decline came despite copper prices in China being mostly high enough
in August for traders to make a profit by buying on the London Metal Exchange,
the global price benchmark, and selling on China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange,
encouraging bookings of physical copper imports into China.
But factory activity in China, which is embroiled in a bruising trade
war with the United States, shrank for a fourth straight month in August,
according to an official survey, in a bearish sign for the manufacturing sector
that is a key source of copper demand.
---- Meanwhile, China’s aluminium exports fell 4.3% in August from the previous month despite a weaker yuan as unexpected production outages at two key smelters meant there was less metal available for overseas shipments.
China, the world’s top aluminium producer, last month exported 466,000
tonnes of unwrought aluminium, including primary metal, alloy and semi-finished
products.
The total was the lowest since February and was also down 9.9% from
August 2018.
Beijing will do what it takes to support HK’s economy
By
Hu Weijia Source:Global Times Published: 2019/9/5 23:18:40
Concerns
over a possible recession are growing in Hong Kong as the city's economy faces
its worst crisis since the global financial crisis in 2008.
A string of recent indicators underscored how the riots in Hong Kong are affecting the city's economy. The tourism industry is one of the major pillars of the local economy, but some statistics show tourist arrivals were down 31 percent in the first week of August compared with a year earlier.
An economic storm has formed, and it will inflict losses on a wide range of areas including tourism, retailing, finance and real estate. The economy is having a hard time. The downside risks have drawn close attention from the central government and local authorities in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). Neither of the authorities has any intention of ducking the questions faced by the HKSAR's economy.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor said on Wednesday that she will take four actions to start dialogue and end unrest in the city. Her words can be seen as a signal that the HKSAR government will take more active measures to manage risks and control crises. The HKSAR government is making efforts to restore business confidence. Ending persistent violence is the first step to prevent Hong Kong from falling into recession.
Beijing firmly supports the HKSAR government's actions to stabilize the economy. The central government won't allow economic chaos to engulf the city. In 1997, Hong Kong was subject to speculative attacks and faced immense pressure on its currency. The reason why Hong Kong could survive as a global financial hub was because of support from the central government.
Now, Beijing has greater strength to maintain the stability of Hong Kong's economy amid internal and external attacks and maintain its position as a global financial hub. The central government has various tools that it can deploy to reach this goal.
Hong Kong has chronic economic problems that some observers claim are the deep-rooted reasons for riots in Hong Kong. A key issue will be to offer development opportunities to the city's young people. The central government will not be stingy in supporting the Hong Kong economy and helping Hong Kong solve its chronic problems.
A string of recent indicators underscored how the riots in Hong Kong are affecting the city's economy. The tourism industry is one of the major pillars of the local economy, but some statistics show tourist arrivals were down 31 percent in the first week of August compared with a year earlier.
An economic storm has formed, and it will inflict losses on a wide range of areas including tourism, retailing, finance and real estate. The economy is having a hard time. The downside risks have drawn close attention from the central government and local authorities in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). Neither of the authorities has any intention of ducking the questions faced by the HKSAR's economy.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor said on Wednesday that she will take four actions to start dialogue and end unrest in the city. Her words can be seen as a signal that the HKSAR government will take more active measures to manage risks and control crises. The HKSAR government is making efforts to restore business confidence. Ending persistent violence is the first step to prevent Hong Kong from falling into recession.
Beijing firmly supports the HKSAR government's actions to stabilize the economy. The central government won't allow economic chaos to engulf the city. In 1997, Hong Kong was subject to speculative attacks and faced immense pressure on its currency. The reason why Hong Kong could survive as a global financial hub was because of support from the central government.
Now, Beijing has greater strength to maintain the stability of Hong Kong's economy amid internal and external attacks and maintain its position as a global financial hub. The central government has various tools that it can deploy to reach this goal.
Hong Kong has chronic economic problems that some observers claim are the deep-rooted reasons for riots in Hong Kong. A key issue will be to offer development opportunities to the city's young people. The central government will not be stingy in supporting the Hong Kong economy and helping Hong Kong solve its chronic problems.
Finally, what could prove to be the start of a global
food tragedy. China’s African Swine Fever epidemic has now somehow jumped
across an Ocean into the Philippines. Where next?
Dead pigs in Philippines test positive for African swine fever
September 9,
2019 / 4:50 AM
MANILA (Reuters) - Dead pigs found in some backyard farms in the
Philippines tested positive for African swine fever, the country’s agriculture
chief said on Monday, the first outbreak of the virus detected in the Southeast
Asian country.
The announcement was based on the results of laboratory tests requested
by Agriculture Secretary William Dar after reports last month of an unusual
number of pig deaths in backyard farms.
The Philippines is now the latest Asian nation to be hit by African
swine fever despite efforts to protect its $5 billion hog industry that
included a ban on pork imports.
“Out of the 20 blood samples (sent to the United Kingdom for testing),
14 are positive with African swine fever,” he said in a media briefing.
Dar said further tests were needed to determine how virulent is the
strain found in local hogs. There is no cure or vaccine for the deadly and
highly contagious disease, which does not affect people.
As of July 1, the Philippine swine herd was estimated at 12.7 million
head, including about 8 million pigs in backyard farms and 4.7 million in
commercial farms, according to government data.
The Philippines has so far banned pork and pork-based products from more
than a dozen countries, including Vietnam, Laos and China. In China, the
outbreak has spread throughout every province and region of the mainland, as
well as to Hong Kong and Hainan island.
In the Philippines, the Department of Agriculture has ordered the
culling of thousands of hogs in areas where the disease had been detected.
It has also tightened animal quarantine and food safety measures,
prohibiting the transport of live animals and meat products without health and
shipping permits.
The Philippines’ import ban covers pork and pork-based products from
Germany, North Korea, Belgium, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Russia,
Ukraine, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Moldova, South Africa, Zambia, and Mongolia.
In China, the nation’s pig herd shrank a third in July from the same
month a year ago.
“It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even
see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one
dollar in any of those [CDS] transactions.”
Joseph J. Cassano, a former A.I.G. executive,
August 2007, on Credit Default Swaps that wiped out A.I.G in 2008.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, will Brexit take GB into recession. It might, thinks the
Resolution Foundation think-tank. Even if Brexit doesn’t, I think Europe,
including GB, is heading into recession anyway, Brexit is merely the icing on
the already baked cake.
Act now to get ready for recession, think-tank urges Britain
September 9,
2019 / 12:20 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain is not ready for its next recession and must
consider changes to the way it manages its economy to see off the downturn when
it comes, the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, said on Monday.
British gross domestic product shrank in the second quarter of this year
and the economy is struggling to pick up momentum as Brexit approaches, meaning
it could already be in a technical recession before it leaves the European
Union.
The Resolution Foundation said the Bank of England could muster only a
quarter of the firepower needed in a typical recession because its key interest
rate is so low and its bond-buying program is likely to prove less effective
now.
Therefore, the government should be more explicit about how it could
pump money into the economy in a downturn and revisit its tax and benefit rules
to cushion households against income shocks which have been weakened since the
last slump.
The think-tank also called for a pipeline of shovel-ready infrastructure
projects which could be sped up in a crisis and it said direct payments could
be made to households if necessary.
“Now is the time to plan for the next recession – because the one thing
we know for certain is that it will happen,” James Smith, Research Director at
the Resolution Foundation, said.
“The UK today faces the highest recession risk since the financial
crisis, and lower-income households are now more exposed to a downturn than
they were back then.”
The Resolution Foundation urged Britain to go beyond tweaking its
existing toolkit and to consider the case for raising the BoE’s inflation
target above its current level of 2% although it conceded such a move would be
challenging to carry out.
Britain’s new finance minister Sajid Javid last week announced the
biggest increase in day-to-day spending in 15 years, a move widely seen as part
of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s push for an early election.
Javid has also said he will review the country’s fiscal rules which
Johnson has suggested could be relaxed to take advantage of record-low
borrowing costs.
Every
generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before
it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.
George
Orwell.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Germany mulls creation of new EV battery consortium
Thomas Seythal September 06, 2019 04:25 AM
Germany's Economics ministry said it is making 1 billion
euros ($1.10 billion) in subsidies available to help enhance and preserve the
automotive value chain in Germany and Europe."Germany and Europe need to develop and build competitive, innovative and environmentally sustainable battery cells," German economy minister Peter Altmaier said in a statement on Friday.
Among the German companies involved are BMW BASF
Varta and BMZ, German daily Handelsblatt reported, citing sources.
On Friday, Volkswagen said it will invest 900 million euros in a joint venture with Sweden's Northvolt AB to build a battery plant with an annual capacity of 16 Gigawatt hours in Salzgitter, Germany.
Volkswagen will take a 20 percent stake in Northvolt and the German battery plant is due to commence production in 2020. Volkswagen Group alone has a demand of more than 150 Gigawatt hours from 2025 in Europe.
VW will launch almost 70 electric models in the next 10 years and expects to build around 22 million electric cars in the next decade as part of a 30 billion euros investment push by 2023.
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, president of the European
Commission. Scotch
connoisseur.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 26,403 +52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down.
SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but
all three shows signs of weakening.
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