Baltic Dry Index. 2393 -29 Brent
Crude 62.87 Spot Gold 1491
Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 50 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.
"I beat the people from China. I win
against China. You can win against China if you're smart. But our people don't
have a clue. We give state dinners to the heads of China. I said, 'why are you
doing state dinners for them? They're ripping us left and right. Just take them
to McDonald's and go back to the negotiating table.'
Donald J. Trump.
Day after day, more of the same optimism. Our global
central bankster are forced into cutting interest rates, starting tomorrow at
the ECB. Never mind that about 40 percent of Europe’s bonds already trade at negative
interest rates, which in turn threatens to wipe out many of Europe’s banks and
pension plans.
Such a cut will force the Fed to cut again next week, so
this bizarre logic goes. We will all buy stocks because the global economy is so
weak, our central banks are forced into the great error of negative interest
rates.
What could possibly go wrong? Still, it might be a good time to load up on
some fully paid up physical gold and silver, for the day it does all go wrong in a
hurry.
Rising bond yields support value stocks ahead of central bank meetings
September 11, 2019
/ 2:14 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Bond yields climbed and stock markets held steady on Wednesday, as hopes of
easing U.S.-China tensions and diminished risk of a no-deal Brexit prompted
traders to take profit before key central bank meetings.
Oil prices also firmed, underpinned by a big drop in U.S. crude
stockpiles, after slipping the previous
day.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4% to
hit a fresh 5-1/2-week high.
Stock investors around the world continued to rotate into value stocks, representing
a major reversal after many months of outperformance by growth shares such as
tech companies.
Japan’s Nikkei average climbed 0.9%, with the Topix Value index jumping
1.9% whereas the Topix Growth added 0.8%.
The Shanghai Composite and the blue-chip CSI300 were almost flat and
down 0.3%, respectively, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 1.4%.
---- “The sudden jump in value-oriented shares in the U.S. and elsewhere has all the hallmarks of position unwinding by major hedge funds,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
“Such unwinding could continue
for a few days but will likely end by the Fed’s policy meeting.”
Such reversals began last week after the announcement of U.S.-China
trade talks in October and as the British parliament moved to prevent Prime
Minister Boris Johnson from crashing the UK out of the European Union without a
deal.
Position unwinding was also apparent in bond markets ahead of key
central bank policy announcements, including the European Central Bank on
Thursday and the U.S. Federal Reserve next week.
More
In Europe news, the
EU’s new team readies for Trump’s new trade war against the EU. Off to a harder
line, at least for now.
EU wants Trump to drop 'reckless' trade policies - incoming trade chief
September 10,
2019 / 12:05 PM
DUBLIN (Reuters) - The European Union will seek to convince U.S
President Donald Trump to see “the error of his ways” and abandon some of his
reckless trade policies, the EU executive’s incoming trade commissioner said on
Tuesday.
“Mr Trump certainly has indicated his clear preference for trade wars
rather than trade agreements. If he keeps up this particular dynamic of
protectionism, I expect that the European Union will continue to forge deals
around the world,” Phil Hogan told Irish national broadcaster RTE.
“But obviously we are going to do everything we possibly can to get Mr
Trump to see the error of his ways and hopefully that he will be able to
abandon some of the reckless behaviour that we have seen from him in relation
to his relationship with China and describing the European Union as a security
risk.”
Next,
China news. As the auto sales crash worsens, China is about to introduce new
stimulus policies, according to the Global Times. But will they include their
long proposed digital Yuan? Will the world’s second largest economy beat the USA in introducing e-cash? But why yet more “funny
money” and why now?
Chinese Automobile Sales Decline for 14th Time in 15 Months
Bloomberg News
Chinese auto sales fell for the 14th time in 15 months, extending what’s
already been a historically prolonged slump in the world’s largest car market.
Sales of sedans, sport utility vehicles, minivans and multipurpose
vehicles in August fell 9.9% from a year earlier to 1.59 million units, the
China Passenger Car Association said Monday.
Automakers
reeling from the industry’s longest downturn in three decades continue to face
headwinds as the economy slows and trade tensions with the U.S. persist. To
help stimulate demand, China has rolled out a series of supportive measures to
encourage consumption -- the latest one coming last month, when the government issued guidelines to loosen
car-purchase restrictions.
But the slide continues, battering carmakers’ earnings. Top Chinese SUV-maker Great Wall Motor Co. saw first-half profit tumble 59% and the country’s biggest automaker -- SAIC Motor Corp. -- recently cut its sales forecast by predicting its first annual sales decline in at least 14 years. Billionaire Li Shufu’s Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. saw sales fall 19% in August.
Separately, Indian car sales tumbled 41% -- the most on record -- in August amid a prolonged slump in that country. In the U.S., which was experiencing its own downturn, automakers posted a much-needed rebound last month -- though deliveries were helped by the inclusion of Labor Day weekend in August.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/chinese-automobile-sales-decline-for-14th-time-in-15-months
China to introduce measures to ease negative impact of trade war - Global Times
September 11,
2019 / 5:19 AM
(Reuters) - China will introduce important measures to ease the negative
impact of the trade war with United States, Hu Xijin, the editor in chief of
the Global Times newspaper, said on Wednesday, without citing a source.
“The measures will benefit some companies from both China and the U.S.,”
he said on Twitter
The Global Times is a tabloid published by the People’s Daily of China’s
ruling Communist Party.
China says new digital currency will be similar to Facebook's Libra
September 6,
2019 / 7:43 AM
---- China’s central bank set up a research team in 2014 to
explore launching its own digital currency to cut the costs of circulating
traditional paper money and boost policymakers’ control of money supply. It had said little since but Mu last month announced that the digital currency was almost ready. U.S. financial magazine Forbes, citing sources, said the currency could be ready as soon as Nov. 11.
Some analysts say China appears to have accelerated the push to digital money after U.S. social media giant Facebook (FB.O) announced plans in June to launch digital coin Libra.
Mu said China’s digital currency would strike a balance between allowing anonymous payments and preventing money-laundering. It would also bear some similarities to Libra in design but would not be a direct copy, he said without elaborating.
Facebook’s proposed cryptocurrency has sparked concerns among global regulators that it could quickly become a dominant form of digital payment and a channel for money laundering given the social network’s massive cross-border reach.
Libra will be a digital currency backed by a reserve of real-world assets, including bank deposits and short-term government securities, and held by a network of custodians. Its structure is intended to foster trust and stabilize the price.
More
Why China’s Rushing to Mint Its Own Digital Currency
Bloomberg NewsThe People’s Bank of China is poised to become the first major central bank to issue a digital version of its currency, the yuan, seeking to keep up with -- and control of -- a rapidly digitizing economy. Unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, though, dealing in the digital yuan won’t have any presumption of total anonymity, and its value will be as stable as the physical yuan, which will be sticking around too. Some questions remain, including the impact on commercial banks as well as Big Tech companies such as Ant Financial and Tencent Holdings Ltd. that already offer payment services. Behind China’s rush is a desire to manage technological change on its own terms. As one PBOC official put it, currency isn’t only an economic issue, it’s also about sovereignty.
1. What’s the plan?
Not all the details are out, but according to new patents registered by the PBOC and official speeches, it could work something like this: Consumers and businesses would download a digital wallet on their mobile phone and load the digital cash from their account at a commercial bank -- similar to going to an ATM. They then use that like cash to make and receive payments with anyone else who also has a digital wallet.More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-10/why-china-s-rushing-to-mint-its-own-digital-currency-quicktake?srnd=technology-vp
We end on China with the Global Times again. Does this sound like a China getting ready to surrender in the US trade war?
US disgraces world since 9/11 attacks
Source:Global
Times Published: 2019/9/10 22:33:42
Today
is September 11. Many US media are reflecting on the country's
counter-terrorism war, as well as on the advantages and disadvantages of
current US foreign policy. Generally, such a review is good.
From the US standpoint, the counter-terror war has been effective. It has overthrown or contained the ability of terrorist organizations to launch 9/11-style mass attacks. The US is relatively safe. But, on the other hand, terrorism has spread across the world and taken advantage of regional issues for more specific goals.
More importantly, hatred and misunderstanding didn't shrink in the world, which makes it harder to uproot terrorism. Therefore, various countries have spent a lot on countering terrorism. Global governance would have made greater achievements if these resources were used to develop the economies in underdeveloped countries and regions.
The US is the most powerful country in the world. We believe it has special responsibilities in making the world more peaceful and orderly. Regrettably, Washington has failed to do so, and has set a bad example for the world by being selfish, capricious and even rude.
Looking back at the counter-terrorism war, people will find out that the US didn't get at the root of eliminating terrorism. In recent years, terrorist activities have more frequently occurred in a larger range of places, involving increasingly diverse radical people.
The situation in the Middle East has changed, while partisan conflicts in the Islamic world have become serious. The US has changed its policy from supporting Israel against Arab countries to overtly backing up some and opposing others in the Middle East as well as selectively supporting so-called democratic activities in the region. Washington has gained in the short term but left the region in chaos.
Washington has been upholding the "America First" policy and taking subversive action in recent years. This has seriously impacted the fragile world order, and allowed various risks to peace to grow.
From the US standpoint, the counter-terror war has been effective. It has overthrown or contained the ability of terrorist organizations to launch 9/11-style mass attacks. The US is relatively safe. But, on the other hand, terrorism has spread across the world and taken advantage of regional issues for more specific goals.
More importantly, hatred and misunderstanding didn't shrink in the world, which makes it harder to uproot terrorism. Therefore, various countries have spent a lot on countering terrorism. Global governance would have made greater achievements if these resources were used to develop the economies in underdeveloped countries and regions.
The US is the most powerful country in the world. We believe it has special responsibilities in making the world more peaceful and orderly. Regrettably, Washington has failed to do so, and has set a bad example for the world by being selfish, capricious and even rude.
Looking back at the counter-terrorism war, people will find out that the US didn't get at the root of eliminating terrorism. In recent years, terrorist activities have more frequently occurred in a larger range of places, involving increasingly diverse radical people.
The situation in the Middle East has changed, while partisan conflicts in the Islamic world have become serious. The US has changed its policy from supporting Israel against Arab countries to overtly backing up some and opposing others in the Middle East as well as selectively supporting so-called democratic activities in the region. Washington has gained in the short term but left the region in chaos.
Washington has been upholding the "America First" policy and taking subversive action in recent years. This has seriously impacted the fragile world order, and allowed various risks to peace to grow.
First,
the US has seriously undermined the post-Cold War major power relations
centered on cooperation. It declared that China and Russia are two strategic
competitors and launched an insane trade war against China, leading to
unprecedented tensions in the world.
Second, Washington refused to fulfill its responsibilities and obligations as a superpower, and withdrew from several international treaties and mechanisms, leaving the already formed major global cooperation incomplete, stagnant, and paralyzed.
Third, the White House has applied extreme pressure and reneged on its words as overt negotiation strategies, severely eroding some basic norms of international relations.
Second, Washington refused to fulfill its responsibilities and obligations as a superpower, and withdrew from several international treaties and mechanisms, leaving the already formed major global cooperation incomplete, stagnant, and paralyzed.
Third, the White House has applied extreme pressure and reneged on its words as overt negotiation strategies, severely eroding some basic norms of international relations.
More
Finally, gold. In our insane age
of ever expanding negative interest rates Citi thinks gold’s going to go a lot
higher.
Citi says gold prices may top $2,000 an ounce
By Steve
Goldstein Published: Sept 10, 2019
6:53 a.m. ET
Analysts at Citi say gold prices will “trade stronger for longer” and
see them possibly topping $2,000 an ounce and posting new highs in the next
year or two.
“We now expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly
breaching $2,000/oz and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next
year or two,” the analysts said in a note published Tuesday.
“From a birds-eye view, low(er) for longer nominal and real interest
rates, escalating global recession risks—exacerbated by U.S.-China trade
tensions—heightened geopolitical rifts amid rich equity and credit market
valuations, coupled with strong central bank and investor buying activity, are
all combining to buttress a bullish gold market environment.”
Gold futures GC00, -0.59% on Tuesday fell $9.20 to $1,501.90 an ounce. But futures have climbed about 23% over the last 12 months.
The Citi analysts also noted platinum PL00, -0.85% has rallied over the past two weeks, playing catch up with gold.
“While consolidation is likely in the near term, we remain bullish platinum over the next 12 months, owing to our expectations of an improvement in automotive demand,” they added.
"I've read hundreds of books about China over the decades.
I know the Chinese. I've made a lot of money with the Chinese. I understand the
Chinese mind."
Donald J. Trump.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
No crooks today, well we’re giving VW a pass for the day. Today, the
Frankfurt Motor Show, electric vehicle version. I suspect that EVs aren’t as
much of the future as currently hyped, no pun intended. Do you really want to
run around in the Scottish highlands in winter, in an iffy 150 mile maximum
range EV?
Automakers turn on style to try to switch SUV fans to electric
September 10, 2019
/ 11:37 AM
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) - Mercedes-Benz and Porsche are showcasing curvaceous, high-end
electric sports cars at the Frankfurt auto show as part of an industry effort
to counter Tesla, avert billions in European pollution fines and defuse
complaints from climate activists. Germany’s premium automakers are now
marketing electric cars as their flagship models, a strategy which Daimler,
Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) and
BMW hope will lure customers away from gas-guzzling SUVs that could soon land
them with hefty fines under new EU emissions rules.
“We have moved on from treating the electric car mainly as an
engineering challenge. Now electric cars are getting sexy,” Gorden Wagener,
Chief Design Officer at Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler told Reuters.
The Mercedes-Benz Vision EQS, a four door electric concept car, boasts
fabrics made from recycled plastic bottles, a message which the company hopes
will resonate with critics as well as car enthusiasts.
The global auto industry has struggled to placate activists and
regulators in the wake of Volkswagen’s 2015 diesel emissions cheating scandal,
while customers continue to buy ever larger, polluting vehicles.
Now a generation of new chief executives including Daimler’s Ola
Kaellenius, BMW’s Oliver Zipse and Volkswagen’s Herbert Diess are attempting to
recast the industry’s image with fresh modern designs and cars that pollute
less.
“This is our idea of sustainable luxury,” Kaellenius said at the
Frankfurt car show. “Electromobility is the core business for Mercedes-Benz.”
The
Taycan, a low-slung four-door sports car with a range of 450 kilometers, is
Volkswagen-owned Porsche’s attempt to inject desirability into premium electric
cars, while the group’s mainstream brand, VW, is wooing customers with the ID3
compact.
Electric cars have seen many false dawns and German carmakers have
struggled to win over customers accustomed to a recipe of high horsepower and
large performance vehicles.
Mini offered customers an electric version of its city vehicle in 2009,
BMW launched the carbon-fiber built i3 in 2013 and Mercedes sold an electric
B-Class in 2014.
These models failed to stand out, and customers complained about high
prices, long charging times, and inefficient batteries with limited ranges.
U.S.-based startup Tesla appealed to tech-savvy customers with its Model
S in 2012, but has struggled to ramp up production volumes.
As a result, global sales of electric vehicles stood at only 1.26
million in 2018, just 1.5% of the 86 million passenger vehicles sold last year,
according to JATO Dynamics.
More
Volkswagen premieres its first pure EV, the ID.3
Nick Lavars
September 09, 2019
We
have seen Volkswagen roll out a string of future-focused concepts as part of
its ID family, but
it has now taken to the Frankfurt Motor Show to give the lineup’s first
production vehicle a full premiere. The ID.3 will arrive in three battery
variants and shoulder a lot of the German automaker’s electric ambitions as it
gears up for a zero-emissions offensive.
Volkswagen gave us a decent look at the ID.3 and opened up preorders for the all-electric hatchback in May. Shown off with a pretty wild pink and blue paint job, it revealed the ID.3 would be available with three battery options covering 330 km, 420 km and 550 km (205 mi, 260 mi and 340 mi) of range on the WLTP cycle.
We now know that comes courtesy of 45 kWh, 58 kWh and 77 kWh battery packs built into the underbody. The first to reach customers will be the limited launch edition, mid-tier 58 kWh ID.3 IST model that VW started pre-booking in May. Its battery powers an electric motor mounted at the rear axle to spin up 150 kW and 310 Nm of torque, pushing the car to a maximum speed of 160 km/h (100 mph).
More
09.05.2019 08:00
AM
Why the Porsche Taycan's Two-Speed Gearbox Is Such a Big Deal
Want to improve an EV’s range by 5 percent, or pump
up its top speed? Trying shifting gears.
To go with a 0 to 60 mph time under three seconds, 750 horsepower, and the ability to refill its battery in just over 20 minutes, the engineers at Porsche gave their all-new, all-electric Taycan a two-speed gearbox. And while that feature is unlikely to grace any headlines, it represents a potentially major shift for the electric car market.
Apart from the Taycan, every production EV uses a single-speed transmission, and gets along just fine. Internal combustion engines need a bunch of gears because they have a narrow RPM window within which they can operate efficiently. For electric motors, that window is much wider, so a single-speed works for both low-end acceleration and highway driving. It does require some compromise, and so EV makers favor low-end acceleration over Autobahn-worthy top speeds. Where most electrics top out around 125 mph (Tesla limits its cars to 163), the Taycan will touch 161 mph.
As the automakers crowding into this market look to differentiate the dozens of models they’re preparing to roll out, and as electric driving tech continues to evolve, Porsche is unlikely to be the only one making this move.
More
Electric car boom to turbocharge battery metal producers: Moody's
September 10,
2019 / 1:57 PM
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Demand for metals
used in battery electric vehicles could rise sixfold if electric cars reach 8%
of road traffic by the mid-2020s, delivering huge dividends for producing
countries like Democratic Republic of Congo, Moody’s said on Tuesday.
The credit ratings agency said a worldwide shift to electric vehicles
would likely drive up demand for cobalt, of which DRC is the world’s number one
producer, as well as lithium, nickel and copper.
However, weak governance in the central African country could dissuade
investors and scupper its potential, it added in a research note.
Other economies that would reap the benefits of the push toward electric
cars include Chile, and the Philippines, followed by Peru, Indonesia, and
Australia, it said.
The battery boom has the greatest potential to boost Congo’s sovereign
credit rating because the production value of these metals would be “extremely
large” relative to its economy.
By 2030 cobalt production could be equivalent to nearly 16% of DRC’s
total GDP last year, more than half of its goods exports and 133% of its
government revenue, and significantly boost its fiscal and current account
balances, Moody’s wrote.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Scientists measure precise proton radius to help resolve decade-old puzzle
Date:
September 5, 2019
Source:
York University
Summary:
Researchers have made a precise measurement of the size of the proton -- a
crucial step towards solving a mystery that has preoccupied scientists around
the world for the past decade. The world's physicists have been scrambling to
resolve the proton-radius puzzle. Now, a study finds a new measurement for the
size of the proton at 0.833 femtometers, which is just under one trillionth of
a millimetre.
York University researchers have made a precise measurement of the size
of the proton -- a crucial step towards solving a mystery that has preoccupied
scientists around the world for the past decade.
Scientists thought they knew the size of the proton, but that changed in
2010 when a team of physicists measured the proton-radius value to be four
percent smaller than expected, which confused the scientific community. Since
then, the world's physicists have been scrambling to resolve the proton-radius
puzzle -- the inconsistency between these two proton-radius values. This puzzle
is an important unsolved problem in fundamental physics today.
Now, a study to be published in the journal Science finds a new
measurement for the size of the proton at 0.833 femtometres, which is just
under one trillionth of a millimetre. This measurement is approximately five
percent smaller than the previously-accepted radius value from before 2010.
The study, led by researchers in York University's Faculty of Science,
presents a new electron-based measurement of how far the proton's positive
charge extends, and it confirms the 2010 finding that the proton is smaller
than previously believed.
"The level of precision required to determine the proton size made
this the most difficult measurement our laboratory has ever attempted,"
said Distinguished Research Professor Eric Hessels, Department of Physics &
Astronomy, who led the study.
"After eight years of working on this experiment, we are pleased to
record such a high-precision measurement that helps to solve the elusive
proton-radius puzzle," said Hessels.
The quest to resolve the proton-radius puzzle has far-reaching
consequences for the understanding of the laws of physics, such as the theory
of quantum electrodynamics, which describes how light and matter interact.
More
"Show
me someone with no ego and I'll show you a big loser."
Donald J. Trump.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 26,403 +52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down.
SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but
all three shows signs of weakening.
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