Baltic Dry Index. 2518+17
Brent Crude 60.62 Spot Gold 1545
Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 56 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.
You have to choose (as a voter) between
trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the
honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect
for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to
vote for gold.
George Bernard Shaw. Socialist writer.
With news of more high level US v China trade talks set
to resume in October, Brexit blocked (maybe) by the UK Parliament for now, and
a climbdown by Hong Kong’s “government,”
stock promoters got busy again promoting the relief rally.
I think it’s more of the exit rally. In the real world,
US manufacturing has joined the global manufacturing slowdown. The increased US
tariffs on Chinese goods has yet to hit US consumers. The Fed has started
downgrading US GDP. The Eurozone is on the cusp of the next recession, and Alan
Greenspan thinks things are so bad that the USA will follow Euroland into
negative interest rates.
A global manufacturing recession normally precedes a much
wider recession. Negative interest rates in the US bond market will not be as
benign as in Japan and Euroland. Gold will likely soar to new all-time highs.
Below, some of yesterday’s interesting developments.
Asian markets gain as U.S. and China agree to new trade talks
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: Sept 4, 2019 11:53
p.m. ET
Asian markets gained in early trading Thursday after an
announcement that the U.S. and China will resume trade negotiations early next
month.Investors also were cheered by encouraging global developments, including British lawmakers seeking a less chaotic exit from the European Union and easing political tensions in Hong Kong.
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced early Thursday that the two sides will meet in Washington in early October. The U.S. and China have not held formal trade talks since July, when meetings in Shanghai ended with no progress.
The agreement came in a phone call conducted by the chief Chinese envoy, Vice Premier Liu He, with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the ministry’s statement said.
Officials will “conduct conscientious consultations” in mid-September to prepare for the talks, it said. It gave no details but said the two sides wanted to create “favorable conditions.”
U.S officials told the Wall Street Journal they were cautiously optimistic, but taking a wait-and-see approach. But investors cheered the development, which comes after the latest round of tit-for-tat tariff hikes went into effect Sept. 1.
U.S. stock futures shot up after the announcement, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, +1.07% , S&P 500 futures ES00, +0.98% and Nasdaq Composite futures NQ00, +1.26% all up around 1%.
Japan’s Nikkei NIK, +2.30% surged 2.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.38% rose 0.3%, as investors there wondered if new government concessions would put an end to months of protests. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +1.56% gained 1.5% and the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, +1.57% advanced 1.4%. South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +1.15% rose 1.2%, while benchmark indexes in Taiwan Y9999, +0.65% , Singapore STI, +0.56% and Indonesia JAKIDX, +0.46% all advanced. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.74% rose 0.9%.
----Shares rallied on Wall Street on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s losses, when disappointing U.S. manufacturing data and an escalation in the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China led to a sell-off that ended a three-day winning streak for the market.
The S&P 500 SPX, +1.08% gained 31.51 points, or 1.1%, to 2,937.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.91% rose 237.45 points, or 0.9%, to 26,355.47. The Nasdaq COMP, +1.30% , which is heavily weighted with technology stocks, climbed 102.72 points, or 1.3%, to 7,976.88.
Investors have been worried that the trade war and a slowing global economy could tip the U.S. into a recession. But traders set aside those concerns Wednesday, focusing instead on geopolitical developments.
In Hong Kong, the government withdrew an extradition bill that had set off three months of protests.
In Europe, Britain’s parliament took a big step toward passing a law that could stop Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to pull out of the EU on Oct. 31 with or without a withdrawal agreement. Leaving the EU without a deal that covers trade and other issues could result in economic chaos for Britain and complicate trade with member nations in the EU.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-gain-as-us-and-china-agree-to-new-trade-talks-2019-09-04?mod=mw_theo_homepage
China, U.S. to hold trade talks in October: China commerce ministry
September 5, 2019
/ 2:59 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - China and the United States agreed to hold high-level trade talks
in early October in Washington, China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday,
amid fears that an escalating trade war could trigger a global economic
recession.
The
announcement followed a call earlier in the day between China’s Vice Premier
Liu He and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury
Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on its
website. China’s central bank governor Yi Gang was also on the call.
“Both sides agreed that they should work together and take practical
actions to create good conditions for consultations,” the ministry said.
Trade teams from the two countries will hold talks in mid-September
before the high-level talks next month, the ministry said. Both sides agreed to
take actions to create favorable conditions, it said.
More
Alan Greenspan says it’s ‘only a matter of time’ before negative rates spread to the US
“You’re seeing it pretty much throughout the world. It’s only a matter of time before it’s more in the United States,” Greenspan told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Wednesday, adding investors should watch the 30-year Treasury yield.
The 30-year U.S. rate traded at 1.95% midday Wednesday. It reached an all-time low last week.
There are currently more than $16 trillion in negative-yielding debt instruments around the world as central banks try to ease monetary conditions to sustain the global economy. The 10-year sovereign bonds in Belgium, Germany, France and Japan — among others — are trading with a negative rate.
U.S.
Treasury yields are still well within positive territory, but the Fed has already
cut rates once this year and is expected to ease later this month. Market
expectations for a rate cut in September are at 92.7%, according to the CME
Group’s FedWatch tool.
An aging population is driving demand for bonds, pushing their yields lower, Greenspan said.
“We’re so used to the idea that we don’t have negative interest rates, but if you get a significant change in the attitude of the population, they look for coupon,” Greenspan said. “As a result of that, there’s a tendency to disregard the fact that that has an effect in the net interest rate that they receive.”
He added that gold prices have been surging recently because people are looking for “hard” assets they know are going to have value down the road as the population ages. Gold futures are up more than 21% in 2019 and are trading around levels not seen since 2013.
Greenspan’s comments come after New York Fed President John Williams called low inflation the “problem of this era” in a speech earlier in the day.
Atlanta Fed model pares U.S. third quarter GDP view to 1.7%
September 3,
2019 / 6:20 PM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is likely growing at a 1.7%
annualized rate in the third quarter, based on weaker-than-forecast data on
domestic manufacturing activity and construction spending, the Atlanta Federal
Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Tuesday.
This was slower than the 2.0% pace estimated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDP
program on Aug. 30.
Because
silver and gold have their value from the matter itself, they have first this
privilege, that the value of them cannot be altered by the power of one, nor of
a few commonwealths, as being a common measure of the commodities of all
places. But base money may easily be enhanced or abased.
Thomas
Hobbes
Elsewhere, Britain’s super-rich make plans to avoid a
Comrade Corbyn government. Another ECB rate cut rattles Deutsche Bank. How much longer does DB have? The Eurozone
economy starts to flirt with the next recession with Brexit still to come.
U.K.’s Super-Rich Prepare to Flee From Corbyn Rule, Not Brexit
By Benjamin Stupples and Edward Robinson
September 4, 2019, 9:28 AM GMT+1
No-deal Brexit? That’s no problem, at least for Britain’s wealthiest
people. Their bigger fear is leftist firebrand Jeremy Corbyn.
For more than a year, some of the most affluent have prepared for a hard
separation from the European Union, making clear they can take a chaotic Brexit
in their stride. But the prospect of a victory by Corbyn’s Labour Party is
turning out to be the more worrisome development.
Here are the potential changes the rich are preparing for, if Corbyn comes to power:
Taxes
In its 2017 manifesto, Labour highlighted rises in income taxes for anyone earning more than 80,000 pounds ($97,248) and a possible wealth tax.A report commissioned by the party called this year for higher taxes on empty homes, honing in on the luxury apartments left vacant in London’s glitzy Knightsbridge district put on the market for more than $100 million. It also recommended reforming inheritance tax laws and an extra levy on real estate owned by foreigners, potentially hitting scores of billionaires, including Zara founder Amancio Ortega.
A wealth tax would need to take into account where someone lives as salaries and living costs are higher around London, according to Mark Davies, a London-based tax advisor to rich individuals.
“There’s a massive discrepancy from the southeast to other parts,” he said. “Everything is being looked at from a single nation point of view, but the reality is there’s a difference in where you live.”
Transparency
Financial privacy could be hard to come by under a Corbyn-led Labour government.
In
a report on tax transparency
published two years ago, the party called for individuals earning more than 1
million pounds a year to file tax returns publicly. It also raised the prospect
of a public ownership register for trusts and all company shareholders, going
further than existing measures that require disclosure of only major
shareholders.
More
Deutsche Bank CEO warns of serious side effects to ECB rate cut
September 4,
2019 / 9:06 AM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank’s (DBKGn.DE) Chief Executive
Officer Christian Sewing warned on Wednesday that a further reduction in
interest rates by the European Central Bank would have a minimal effect on the
economy but risks serious side effects. The warning comes a week before an ECB policy meeting at which decision markers are leaning towards a stimulus package that includes a rate cut.
Sewing, speaking at a banking conference, said his bank’s customers say they would not invest more if credit were 0.10 percentage points cheaper.
A rate cut would “only drive up asset prices and further burden savers”, he said.
Lower rates would help those who are indebted or invested in assets, but
the majority of the population wouldn’t benefit, he said.
“That divides society further,” he said.
Banks in Germany and throughout Europe have long complained about the
ECB’s policy which requires banks to pay to park their cash at the central bank
and hurts their bottom lines.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-banks/deutsche-bank-ceo-warns-of-serious-side-effects-to-ecb-rate-cut-idUKKCN1VP0SG?il=0Euro zone business growth stays tepid as summer ends - PMI
September 4,
2019 / 9:10 AM
Worryingly for policymakers at the European Central Bank, who are widely
expected to loosen monetary policy next week, forward-looking indicators in the
survey imply there won’t be a turnaround anytime soon.
IHS Markit’s Euro Zone Composite Final Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI),
considered a good gauge of overall economic health, nudged up 51.9 in August
from July’s 51.5.
That pipped a preliminary reading of 51.8 but held dangerously close to
the 50 mark separating growth from contraction.
Retail sales in the bloc fell in line with expectations in July,
providing a negative sign from consumers at the start of the third quarter,
official data showed on Wednesday.
“The small upward revision to August’s euro zone PMI leaves it still
pointing to slow GDP growth at the start of H2. And the fall in retail sales in
July suggests that consumption started Q3 on a weak footing,” said Melanie
Debono at Capital Economics.
IHS Markit said the composite PMI, barring any substantial change in
September, pointed to economic growth of just 0.2% this quarter, matching the
forecast in a Reuters poll. The survey compiler noted official data suggested
growth could be even weaker.
A sister survey
released on Monday showed manufacturing activity contracted for a seventh month
in August but Wednesday’s release showed services growth accelerated. The PMI
rose to 53.5 from July’s 53.2, above the flash 53.4 reading.
More
Finally, in other news, how good are self driving cars?
Not that good after all. Neither the driver nor the autopilot saw the
stationary Fire Truck even though it had its emergency lights on.
Tesla was on Autopilot when it crashed into fire engine, NTSB finds
By Associated Press
Published: Sept 3, 2019 5:49 p.m. ET
DETROIT — A government report says the driver of a Tesla
that slammed into a fire engine near Los Angeles last year was using the car’s
Autopilot system when a vehicle in front of him suddenly changed lanes and he
didn’t have time to react.The National Transportation Safety Board said Tuesday the driver never saw the parked fire engine and didn’t brake. Apparently the man’s 2014 Tesla Model S didn’t brake either.
The report raises further questions about the effectiveness of Tesla’s system, which was in operation before several other crashes including two fatalities in Florida and one in Silicon Valley. Tesla TSLA, -0.27% warns drivers that the system is not fully autonomous and drivers must be ready to intervene.
The NTSB report didn’t state a cause of the crash. The agency will issue a final report Wednesday.
The driver in the Jan. 22, 2018 crash on Interstate 405 was not hurt. But the NTSB report said he did not have his hands on the steering wheel at the time of the crash.
The fire engine from Culver City, California, had stopped in the northbound high occupancy vehicle lane with its emergency lights flashing as it responded to another crash. The firefighters were also uninjured.
The Tesla driver, from suburban Woodland Hills, told the NTSB that he was traveling to work in Los Angeles when the crash happened. He told investigators he was looking forward with his hand rested on his knee while touching the bottom of the steering wheel.
Just before the crash, a large vehicle, an SUV or pickup truck, changed lanes in front of him, the driver told the NTSB.
“Although the driver stated that he was looking forward, he was unable to see the firetruck in time enough to avoid the crash. The driver had coffee and a bagel at the time, but he wasn’t sure if either was in his hand when the crash occurred,” according to the report.
Cellphone data showed the driver was not using his phone to talk or text in the minutes leading up to the crash.
More
Gold would have value if for no other
reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his
financial escape from the
state.
William F. Rickenbacker
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today Huawei again. The US war on Huawei steps up as Huawei accuses the
USA of adopting Stalinist tactics. The USA wouldn’t do that would they? Oh
right, the FBI and others, spied on a sitting US President and tried to frame
him over non-existent collusion with the Russians.
Huawei says U.S. enticing, coercing staff to provide company info
September 3, 2019
/ 9:03 PM / Updated September 4, 2019
BRUSSELS (Reuters)
- China’s Huawei Technologies on Tuesday said the U.S. government had
instructed law enforcement to “coerce” and “entice” its employees to turn
against the company, as it steps up its pushback against a U.S. campaign that
could threaten its survival.
Huawei made its assertions in a news release on Tuesday and in an undated document seen by Reuters.
Amid a trade war with China, Washington put the world’s No. 2 smartphone maker on an Entity List in May, in effect cutting off its access to essential U.S. components and technology, in particular Google’s (GOOGL.O) apps and services for Android devices.
Huawei on Tuesday said the U.S. government was using its judicial and administrative powers as well as other means to disrupt its business and that of its partners.
A Justice Department spokesman said that while they do not comment on specific investigations, “in all matters, our investigative techniques comply with the law and all subjects of investigations enjoy the same rights to due process afforded by our Constitution and safeguarded by an independent judiciary.”
Huawei said in its public statement that staff and Huawei partners were subjected to unlawful searches, detention and arrest while some employees were visited by FBI agents at their homes and pressured to collect information on the company.
According to the Huawei document, eight employees, several of them U.S. citizens, were involved in the incidents. All of them are mid- to high-level executives. The latest incident happened on Aug. 28 when an employee from Huawei’s U.S. office informed the company of a visit from the FBI asking the person to be an informant.
The Justice Department said the FBI would not have a separate comment.
Speaking in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang
referred specific questions to the Huawei statement, but said China opposed
U.S. moves to target a specific company without providing any evidence.
“This kind of behaviour is not only disgraceful, it is also immoral,”
Geng said, adding that the United States should stop its “irrational” pressure
on Chinese companies and instead create a non-discriminatory environment for
their operations.
Huawei did not provide any evidence for its accusations, saying that
their employees had reported them to the company. Reuters could not
independently confirm the information provided by Huawei.
Since the start of this year, at least three U.S. employees have been
contacted by U.S. law enforcement agencies, the Huawei document said.
Beyond the accusations of putting pressure on its employees, Huawei also
claimed that the U.S. government was launching cyber attacks on the company and
mobilising companies that work with Huawei to bring unsubstantiated
accusations. The document did not provide specific details about these efforts.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-huawei-tech-usa/huawei-says-u-s-enticing-coercing-staff-to-provide-company-info-idUKKCN1VO2JL
U.S. effort to disqualify Huawei's lead lawyer goes to court
September 4,
2019 / 11:03 AM
(Reuters) - A former U.S. Justice Department official who
now represents Huawei Technologies is expected in Brooklyn federal court on
Wednesday to defend his right to represent the Chinese company against U.S.
charges of bank fraud and sanctions violations.
U.S. prosecutors claim lead Huawei lawyer James Cole’s prior work as the
No. 2 official in the Justice Department created “irresolvable conflicts of
interest” that disqualify him as counsel for Huawei in the case.
As deputy attorney general, prosecutors say Cole supervised and
participated in aspects of an investigation related to the Huawei case which
has not been made public.
“Cole had access to privileged and confidential information, including
classified information, that he can use to the government’s detriment here,”
prosecutors said in an August filing in U.S. District Court in Brooklyn.
Cole claims he has no recollection of matters referenced as the basis
for him to be disqualified from the case, according to another court filing. He
served as deputy attorney general until 2015.
Prosecutors will ask to close the courtroom for portions of oral
arguments involving classified information, according to a letter to the judge
on Tuesday.
The case against Huawei, the world’s largest telecommunications equipment
maker, has been a point of contention between Beijing and Washington as the
world’s top two economic powers engage in an escalating trade war.
The company’s chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of
Huawei’s founder, was arrested in Canada in December at the request of the
United States for allegedly misleading banks about the company’s business in
Iran, putting them at risk of violating U.S. sanctions.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-huaweitech-usa-lawyer/u-s-effort-to-disqualify-huaweis-lead-lawyer-goes-to-court-idUKKCN1VP146
“Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.”
Catch-22
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
CeramicSpeed's radical DrivEn bicycle drivetrain can now shift gears
Ben Coxworth
September 04, 2019
We
covered a lot of bike-related innovations last year, but by far the most
popular was CeramicSpeed's
DrivEn pinion-style shaft-drive system. Now, its
designers have taken it much closer to real-world usability, by giving it the
ability to shift between gears.
To recap our previous coverage, the original version of the setup
consisted of a cylindrical carbon fiber shaft that reached from a single
chainring in front to a flat 13-speed cassette on the rear wheel.
Mounted on
either end of that shaft were sets of very-low-friction ceramic bearings (a
total of 21) contained within front and rear cylindrical devices known as
pinions – these engaged the teeth on the chainring and the cassette cogs. As
the rider pedaled, the bearings transferred torque from the chainring through
the shaft and into the rear wheel, turning it.
At the time, the system's Colorado-based inventors proclaimed that
DrivEn was the world's most efficient bicycle drivetrain – when it came to
converting pedaling energy into wheel motion, that is.
And just last month, it
was announced that wind tunnel testing conducted in partnership with
Specialized revealed that it is also one of the most aerodynamic. Now, at this
year's Eurobike show, the system's master/slave-type gear-shifting
functionality is being unveiled.
At
the heart of the new system is a laterally-split rear pinion.
In response to a wirelessly-transmitted signal from a handlebar-mounted
shifter, the side/half of the pinion that is not currently engaging the
cassette cog teeth gets moved forward or backward by an actuator inside the
shaft. As the bearings on that (master) side of the pinion proceed to rotate
180 degrees and engage the teeth on a new cog, the linked (slave) side
of the pinion also gets pulled over onto that cog, so that both sides of the
pinion are now back in line with one another, but on a different cog.
The mechanism is illustrated in the following video.
More
The inflated imitations of gold and silver,
which after the rapture are thrown into the fire, all is exhausted and
dissipated by the debt. All scrips and bonds are wiped out. At the fourth
pillar dedicated to Saturn, split by earthquake and flood: vexing everyone, an
urn of gold is found and then restored.
Nostradamus
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 26,403 +52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down.
SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but
all three shows signs of weakening.
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