Baltic Dry Index. 1857 -106 Brent
Crude 61.94 Spot Gold 1493
Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 31 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.
“It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."
John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
A difficult week ahead for markets, after today’s end of
month, and end of quarter, attempts to dress up the final figures. Up next
October, the traditional crash month for global stock markets.
China is about to take the rest of the week off to celebrate
the 70th anniversary of the founding of communist China.
Japan’s manufacturing economy continues cooling.
Elsewhere events are likely to be dominated by political
turmoil in Washington, District of Crooks.
Toss in a looming no deal Brexit now just 31 days away,
maybe, and add in a reported major setback for Saudi forces attacking Yemen,
and all in all we have probably a volatile and unpredictable trading week.
Asian shares mostly flat, Japan hurt by Sino-U.S. tensions
September 30, 2019
/ 1:48 AM
TOKYO/SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Asian stock markets, including China’s, were little changed on
Monday, shrugging off news that the U.S. administration is considering
delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up 0.05% while China's Shanghai stock index .SSEC slipped 0.2%, barely responding to any of the concerns around the latest Sino-U.S. tensions that caused the Nasdaq index .IXIC to fall more than 1% on Friday.
Risk assets took a hit in U.S. trade on Friday following news the Trump administration is considering radical new financial pressure tactics on Beijing, including the possibility of delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.
The report knocked Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges, with Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N) falling 5.15% and JD.com (JD.O) 5.95% on Friday.
Worries such an escalation would hurt Japan the most however weighed on the Nikkei .N225, which shed 0.45%. U.S. stock futures ESc1 gained 0.44%, paring most of Friday's 0.53% fall in the index.
Trading in Chinese markets was quiet ahead of a long break. Chinese
share markets will trade only on Monday this week ahead of the country’s
National Day holiday, which runs until Oct. 7.
There were mixed signals from China’s manufacturing surveys on Monday,
which showed sustained weakness in exports and surprising improvement in
domestic consumption indicators, and a Chinese central bank statement briefly
hinting at plans for more stimulative policies.
More
Japan's August factory output slips more than expected on slowing overseas demand
September 30, 2019
/ 2:45 AM
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Japan’s industrial output shrank more than expected in August in
the latest warning that the economy and its manufacturers are facing
intensifying pressure amid a bitter Sino-U.S. trade war.
Retail sales, however, expanded at a faster-than-expected pace,
signalling strength in private spending ahead of October’s nationwide sales tax
increase.
Industrial output fell 1.2% in August, government data showed, dropping
at a faster pace than a median market forecast for a 0.5% decline and almost
completely reversing July’s 1.3% increase.
Output was weighed down by reduced production of iron and steel
products, factory production
equipment and cars, offsetting a gain in
electronic parts and chemicals, the data showed.
Manufacturers surveyed by the trade ministry expect output to rise 1.9%
in September, but fall 0.5% in October.
Monday’s output data paints a bleak picture for Japan’s export-reliant
economy, underlining broadening stress across the manufacturing
sector from slowing global growth, though service-sector activity remains
firm as it is less at risk from weakness in global trade.
“The lack of export growth because of the global economic slowdown is
having a major impact,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin
Central Bank Research Institute. “The sales tax will be raised in October, so
the deceleration of the economy will likely become stronger.”
More
Next, a warning from Saudi Arabia that in any war with Iran it’s
the world economy that will be the big loser.
Oil prices climb as positive China factory data eases demand concerns
September 30, 2019
/ 1:43 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Monday after China’s factories unexpectedly
ramped up production in September, easing concerns about demand at the world’s
largest crude importer amid an ongoing trade war with the United States.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures rose 9 cents to $62 a barrel by 0300 GMT while
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures rose 13 cents to $56.04 a
barrel.
The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for
September expanded for a second straight month as Chinese factories ramped up
production and new orders rose, beating market expectations.
“The Caixin data was a real surprise and should be positive for Asia’s
markets today,” said Jeffrey Halley, OANDA senior analyst in Singapore.
He added that the data would need to post similar results over the next
few months to point to a China oil demand growth recovery.
The country is the world’s second largest oil user.
Brent is set to rise 2.6% in September, its first monthly gain since
June, with prices lifted by an unprecedented attack on Saudi’s oil facilities
on Sept. 14 that reduced its production by half. WTI is set to rise 1.7% this
month. .
World’s top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has restored capacity to 11.3
million barrels per day, sources told Reuters last week although Saudi Aramco
has yet to confirm it is fully back online.
“Most of this is already priced in when the Saudis said they were going
to do it (resume production) fast,” said Avtar Sandu, a senior commodities
manager at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
While Saudi Arabia is maintaining exports by using crude from
inventories and spare production capacity, how much of it is actually restored
could only be determined in the next few weeks, he added.
Still, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East simmered after Saudi
Arabia’s crown prince warned in an interview broadcast on Sunday that oil
prices could spike to “unimaginably high numbers” if the world does not come
together to deter Iran, but said he would prefer a political solution to a
military one.
This came a day after Yemen’s Houthi movement said it had carried out a
major attack near the border with the southern Saudi region of Najran and
captured many troops and vehicles, but there was no immediate confirmation from
Saudi Arabian authorities.
Saudi prince says war with Iran would gut world economy
Issued on:
Saudi Arabia's crown prince said in an interview aired Sunday that war
with Iran would devastate the global economy and he prefers a non-military
solution to tensions with his regional rival.
"If the world does not take a strong and firm action to deter Iran,
we will see further escalations that will threaten world interests,"
Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the CBS program "60 Minutes."
"Oil supplies will be disrupted and oil prices will jump to
unimaginably high numbers that we haven?t seen in our lifetimes," the
prince said.
The prince said a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be
catastrophic for the world economy.
"The region represents about 30 percent of the world?s energy supplies,
about 20 percent of global trade passages, about four percent of the world GDP.
Imagine all of these three things stop," he said.
"This means a total collapse of the global economy, and not just
Saudi Arabia or the Middle East countries."
He said a September 14 attack on Saudi oil facilities, which his country
and the US blamed on Iran, had been senseless.
"There is no strategic goal. Only a fool would attack five percent
of global supplies. The only strategic goal is to prove that they are stupid and
that is what they did," said the prince.
More
If
all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, Volkswagen again. The diesel-gate
scandal just rolls on and on seemingly forever.
Volkswagen faces first mammoth diesel lawsuit on home turf
Issued on:
Car behemoth Volkswagen will face a German court Monday, as hundreds of
thousands of owners of manipulated diesel cars demand compensation four years
after the country's largest post-war industrial scandal erupted.
The first hearing in what is likely to be a grinding, years-long trial
opens at 10 am (0800 GMT) in Brunswick, around 30 kilometres (19 miles) from VW
headquarters in the northern city of Wolfsburg.
Around 450,000 people have joined a first-of-its-kind grouped
proceeding, introduced by lawmakers after the "dieselgate" emissions
cheating scandal broke in 2015.
Consumer rights group VZBV, representing the plaintiffs, says the German
carmaker deliberately harmed buyers by installing motor control software that
allowed vehicles to pollute far more on the road than under lab conditions.
The trial is Germany's largest so far in the tentacular diesel scandal,
which last week saw VW chief executive Herbert Diess charged with market
manipulation over his role.
- 50 questions for judges -
In the mass lawsuit, the most important of around 50 questions for
judges is whether Volkswagen "caused harm" by acting
"dishonestly".
Klaus Mueller of VZBV said he is "convinced" the car firm did,
while VW says "clients did not suffer harm".
"Hundreds of thousands of cars are used" on the roads without
problem, VW lawyer Martine de Lind van Wijngaarden said.
Even if judges find in favour of plaintiffs, there will not be an
immediate compensation payment.
Rather, every owner registered in the trial will have to claim
individually.
VW thinks a final judgement could arrive in 2023 at the earliest, if the
case is appealed all the way to the Federal Court of Justice.
Individual proceedings could then take at least another year -- in the
court of first instance.
By then, the cars' market value could have eroded to a negligible
amount, making a buyback cheaper for the firm.
To avoid such delays, the VZBV says it is "open" to an
out-of-court settlement but "in that case, VW would have to pay a
significant sum after all," Mueller told AFP.
Given the wide variety of cases under the group action umbrella, VW
finds a mass settlement "hard to imagine".
In early July, judges noted in a preliminary opinion that some owners
listed among the plaintiffs were living abroad.
That could mean German law does not apply to them.
Volkswagen said two percent of those listed live abroad and 10 percent
are duplicate entries.
Alongside the grouped proceeding, 61,000 individual lawsuits have been
filed in Germany, and some have already led to out-of-court settlements.
- 30 billion euros -
Since 2015, when Volkswagen admitted to manipulating 11 million vehicles
worldwide to fool emissions tests, the scandal has cost the group over 30
billion euros ($33 billion) in fines, compensation and legal costs.
Most of that sum -- $22 billion -- has gone to the US, while in Germany
VW has so far paid just 2.3 billion dollars spread across three fines.
Alongside car owners, investors are claiming damages for losses they
suffered when the group's share price plummeted after it came clean.
And earlier this week, chief executive Herbert Diess and supervisory
board chief Hans Dieter Poetsch were charged with market manipulation.
More
Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.
Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Machu Picchu: Ancient Incan sanctuary intentionally built on faults
Date:
September 23, 2019
Source:
Geological Society of America
Summary:
The ancient Incan sanctuary of Machu Picchu is considered one of humanity's
greatest architectural achievements. Built in a remote Andean setting atop a
narrow ridge high above a precipitous river canyon, the site is renowned for
its perfect integration with the spectacular landscape. But the sanctuary's
location has long puzzled scientists: Why did the Incas build their masterpiece
in such an inaccessible place?
The ancient Incan sanctuary of Machu Picchu is considered one of
humanity's greatest architectural achievements. Built in a remote Andean
setting atop a narrow ridge high above a precipitous river canyon, the site is
renowned for its perfect integration with the spectacular landscape. But the
sanctuary's location has long puzzled scientists: Why did the Incas build their
masterpiece in such an inaccessible place? Research suggests the answer may be
related to the geological faults that lie beneath the site.
On Monday, 23 Sept. 2019, at the GSA Annual meeting in Phoenix, Rualdo
Menegat, a geologist at Brazil's Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, will
present the results of a detailed geoarchaeological analysis that suggests the
Incas intentionally built Machu Picchu -- as well as some of their cities -- in
locations where tectonic faults meet. "Machu Pichu's location is not a
coincidence," says Menegat. "It would be impossible to build such a
site in the high mountains if the substrate was not fractured."
Using a combination of satellite imagery and field measurements, Menegat
mapped a dense web of intersecting fractures and faults beneath the UNESCO
World Heritage Site. His analysis indicates these features vary widely in
scale, from tiny fractures visible in individual stones to major,
175-kilometer-long lineaments that control the orientation of some of the
region's river valleys.
Menegat found that these faults and fractures occur in several sets,
some of which correspond to the major fault zones responsible for uplifting the
Central Andes Mountains during the past eight million years. Because some of
these faults are oriented northeast-southwest and others trend
northwest-southeast, they collectively create an "X" shape where they
intersect beneath Machu Picchu.
Menegat's mapping suggests that the sanctuary's urban sectors and the
surrounding agricultural fields, as well as individual buildings and stairs,
are all oriented along the trends of these major faults. "The layout
clearly reflects the fracture matrix underlying the site," says Menegat.
Other ancient Incan cities, including Ollantaytambo, Pisac, and Cusco, are also
located at the intersection of faults, says Menegat. "Each is precisely the
expression of the main directions of the site's geological faults."
Menegat's results indicate the underlying fault-and-fracture network is
as integral to Machu Picchu's construction as its legendary stonework. This
mortar-free masonry features stones so perfectly fitted together that it's
impossible to slide a credit card between them. As master stoneworkers, the
Incas took advantage of the abundant building materials in the fault zone, says
Menegat. "The intense fracturing there predisposed the rocks to breaking
along these same planes of weakness, which greatly reduced the energy needed to
carve them."
More
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 26,403 +52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down.
SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but
all three shows signs of weakening.
