Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Truth Day For Saudi Murder?


Baltic Dry Index. 1579 +03   Brent Crude 79.63

If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Later today, President Erdogan promises to release “the truth” on the Khashoggi murder in Istanbul on October 2nd. Depending on what that “truth” is, and how credible its source, President Trump , Saudi Arabia, and Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, could all be in for a very rough time.

If “the truth” points to MBS behind the murder, the government of Saudi Arabia may be thrown into turmoil. The US midterm elections saddled with a new issue, that I doubt most voters really cared about until today. New uncertainty heaped on existing election uncertainty, making for a very wild last few days on the hustings. Markets would likely react negatively.

If “the truth” is less conclusive and credible, western governments led by the erratic Trump USA, will be left dithering about for an appropriate response. Like it or not, a whole lot of western contracts and jobs, rest on what the western governments decide. One dubious upside, the likely survival of Crown Prince Mohammad. Stability of a sort in leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia in the run down to US sanctions on Iranian oil exports starting on November 4th.

Interestingly, President Trump’s CIA director was sent to Turkey yesterday, presumably to try to get President Erdogan to tone down his “truth.” But much of President Erdogan’s leaks have been directed at President Trump as much as at MBS.

Needless to say, this uncertainty is weighing on Asian markets.

Asian shares buckle to European woes, Saudi anxieties

October 23, 2018 / 2:06 AM / Updated an hour ago
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Tuesday as earnings season nerves in the U.S. dented Wall Street, while a cocktail of negative drivers from Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic isolation to concerns over Italy’s budget and Brexit talks depressed sentiment.

Selling in the region erased gains made in the previous two sessions’ rally, which were led by China stimulus hopes, with the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropping 1.3 percent. 

South Korea’s Kospi fell as much as 2.5 percent and was on course to hit a 1-1/2-year low. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 2.3 percent.

U.S. stock futures dropped 0.8 percent in early Tuesday trade. On Monday the S&P 500 lost 0.43 percent as investors kept a wary eye on earnings amid global growth worries. Enthusiasm over some of the upbeat results was also tempered by the growing political uncertainty around the world.

“In short, the world seems to be getting into chaos,” said Akira Takei, bond fund manager at Asset Management One.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he was not satisfied with what he had heard from Saudi Arabia about the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at its consulate in Turkey.

Trump has expressed reluctance to punish the Saudis economically. But while Saudi Arabia has sought to shield its powerful crown prince from the killing, many officials have cast doubt on Riyadh’s narrative.

Several countries, including Germany, Britain, France and Turkey, have pressed Saudi Arabia to provide all the facts.

An immediate market focus is on Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who said he will release information about the investigation in a speech on Tuesday.

Any signs of instability in Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer as well as a big investor in financial markets, could have wide-ranging repercussions.

“I would think this issue could drag on for some time,” said Asset Management One’s Takei.
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Asian Stock Declines Deepen as Treasuries Advance: Markets Wrap

By Andreea Papuc
Updated on 23 October 2018, 04:58 GMT+1
A sell-off in equities resumed with Asian stocks and U.S. futures sliding as Chinese shares snapped a two-day rally ahead of a slew of key blue chip earnings reports this week. The dollar traded around the highest level in two months and Treasury yields fell.

The steepest decreases were in Japan, Hong Kong and China, where shares failed to sustain the biggest jump in more than two years the previous day. S&P 500 Index futures declined almost 1 percent. Earlier, banks and energy stocks had led declines in the U.S. benchmark though the FANG cohort lifted tech-heavy Nasdaq indexes ahead of earnings from the likes of Alphabet and Twitter. The yen gained and gold ticked higher.

Risks still abound across global markets, from the continuing U.S.-China trade showdown and tension surrounding the killing of a Saudi journalist to Italian budget fears and President Donald Trump’s unpredictable actions ahead of American midterm elections. Equities are looking for direction after a miserable few weeks, and company results from the likes of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel as well as U.S. growth data may provide a stimulus in the coming days.

“Global financial markets continue to struggle to rally as various geopolitical concerns weigh on investor confidence,” Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities Australia, said in a note. “With the rest of the world looking much more pessimistic in the current environment,” markets were poised for “a firm correction,” he added.
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Turkey - Khashoggi murder 'monstrously planned', truth will emerge

October 21, 2018 / 1:27 PM
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey’s ruling party said on Monday Jamal Khashoggi was the victim of a “monstrously planned” murder, dismissing Riyadh’s assertion he died in a fight, as Western incredulity deepened over varying Saudi accounts of the journalist’s disappearance.

Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and critic of the powerful Saudi crown prince, disappeared three weeks ago after he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to obtain documents for an upcoming marriage.

Riyadh’s reaction since - it initially denied knowledge of his fate before saying he was killed in a fight in the consulate - has left several Western governments deeply sceptical and strained ties with the world’s largest oil exporter.

Ruling AK Party spokesman Omer Celik said efforts had been made to cover up the killing, referring to surveillance footage aired by CNN showing a man dressed as Khashoggi walking around Istanbul after he vanished in an apparent attempt at deception.

“We are facing a situation that has been monstrously planned and later tried to be covered up. It is a complicated murder,” he told reporters.

“We are being careful so nobody tries to cover the issue up. The truth will come out. Those responsible will be punished, something like this will not cross anybody’s mind anymore.”

---- “One cannot help but wonder how there could have been a ‘fistfight’ between 15 young expert fighters ... and a 60-year-old Khashoggi, alone and defenceless,” Yasin Aktay, an adviser to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and a friend of Khashoggi’s, wrote in the pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper.

“The more one thinks about it, the more it feels like our intelligence is being mocked,” he wrote.
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Trump says he remains unsatisfied with Saudi accounts on Khashoggi

October 21, 2018 / 1:27 PM / Updated 3 hours ago
WASHINGTON/ISTANBUL (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he was still not satisfied with what he has heard from Saudi Arabia about the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey, but did not want to lose investment from Riyadh.

Trump spoke with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the world’s top oil exporter, on Sunday. He told reporters on Monday that he has teams in Saudi Arabia and Turkey working on the case and would know more about it after they returned to Washington on Monday night or Tuesday. 

CIA Director Gina Haspel was travelling to Turkey on Monday to work on the Khashoggi investigation, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

“I am not satisfied with what I’ve heard,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “I don’t want to lose all that investment that’s been made in our country. But we’re going to get to the bottom of it.”

He later told USA Today that he believed the death was a “plot gone awry.”

Trump has expressed reluctance to punish the Saudis economically, citing the kingdom’s multibillion-dollar purchases of U.S. military equipment and investments in U.S. companies.

Prince Mohammed met in Riyadh with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and discussed “the importance of the Saudi-U.S. strategic partnership,” Saudi state media said. Mnuchin’s spokesman said on Twitter the two discussed the Khashoggi investigation as well as Iran sanctions and Saudi economic issues.

Mnuchin cancelled his speaking engagement at a high-profile Saudi investment conference on Tuesday, as did two dozen other top speakers.

Hundreds of bankers and company executives were still expected to attend the Future Investment Initiative, which aims to help the country curb its economic dependence on oil exports. But Khashoggi’s killing has tarnished an event that last year attracted global business elites and won the moniker “Davos in the Desert.”
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Men are so simple and so much inclined to obey immediate needs that a deceiver will never lack victims for his deceptions.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, a hopping mad, revenge seeking,  Washington Post sets out to get even with Saudi Arabia.

Princes and governments are far more dangerous than other elements within society.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Inside the Saudis’ Washington influence machine: How the kingdom gained power through fierce lobbying and charm offensives

October 21 at 10:39 PM
In March 2018, the Saudi ambassador to Washington summoned a cadre of high-priced Washington lobbyists to his embassy to grapple with a delicate, double-pronged challenge.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was preparing for his first official visit to the United States, just four months after he consolidated power by ordering the detention of members of the royal family and business elite. At the same time, Congress was facing a vote on a bipartisan resolution seeking to end U.S. support for a Saudi bombing campaign in Yemen that has killed tens of thousands of civilians since 2015.

During an afternoon meeting on March 12, Saudi Ambassador Khalid bin Salman sat at the head of a long table in an embassy conference room, flanked by a whiteboard detailing the prince’s itinerary. His assembled advisers included Norm Coleman, the former Minnesota senator; Marc S. Lampkin, a veteran Capitol Hill adviser who served on President Trump’s transition team; and Democratic strategist Alfred E. Mottur, according to people familiar with the gathering.

Eight days after their meeting, the congressional resolution aimed at extracting the United States from what the United Nations labeled “the worst humanitarian crisis in the world” would be defeated — hours after Mohammed was warmly welcomed at the White House at the start of his nationwide tour.

Those twin successes reflected the power of a sophisticated Saudi influence machine that has shaped policy and perceptions in Washington for decades, batting back critiques of the oil-rich kingdom by doling out millions to lobbyists, blue-chip law firms, prominent think tanks and large defense contractors. In 2017, Saudi payments to lobbyists and consultants in Washington more than tripled over the previous year, public filings show.

The strength of the Saudi operation is now being tested amid a global condemnation of the killing of Washington Post contributing columnist Jamal Khashoggi earlier this month in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul — a death the kingdom belatedly acknowledged last week.

Beyond their spending in Washington, the Saudis have enjoyed a priceless advantage: a warm relationship with the president, who has done business with its wealthy citizens, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who developed a close bond with the crown prince as he crafted the administration’s Middle East policy. The ties build on a long-standing relationship between past administrations and the Saudi royal family.

The kingdom also cultivated opinion leaders through aggressive charm offensives. Powerful government figures — including deputy intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, who was fired for Khashoggi’s killing — have visited Washington to court reporters and think tank analysts.

The Saudi ambassador has hosted intimate dinners in Washington and even occasional galas, such as a lavish event at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium honoring this year’s visit of the crown prince.
The kingdom’s lobbying team was dispatched to ensure that leading members of congressional foreign relations panels attended, public filings show.

Earlier this year, Saudi officials even offered Super Bowl tickets and chartered flights to the event to media stars such as Jake Tapper of CNN and Bret Baier of Fox News, according to Tapper and a Fox News spokeswoman. (Both said they turned the offers down.)
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A prince never lacks legitimate reasons to break his promise.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

New Materials Could Make Concentrated Solar Power Cheaper Than Battery Storage

October 19th, 2018 by Steve Hanley 
Sunlight can do lots of useful things. It can make plants grow. It can allow solar panels to make electricity. And it can be used to heat stuff up to extremely high temperatures. That last one is what makes concentrated solar power possible. According to a report in Science Daily, “Concentrated solar power plants convert solar energy into electricity by using mirrors or lenses to concentrate a lot of light onto a small area, which generates heat that is transferred to a molten salt. Heat from the molten salt is then transferred to a “working” fluid, supercritical carbon dioxide, that expands and works to spin a turbine for generating electricity.”

The critical elements in that process are the heat exchangers used to transfer the heat stored in the molten salt to the carbon dioxide working fluid. If the whole process could be made to operate at even higher temperatures, CSP systems could make more electricity from a given amount of sunlight.
“Storing solar energy as heat can already be cheaper than storing energy via batteries, so the next step is reducing the cost of generating electricity from the sun’s heat with the added benefit of zero greenhouse gas emissions,” says Kenneth Sandhage, a professor of materials engineering at Purdue University.

At the present time, those heat exchangers are made of stainless steel or nickel based alloys, but they get too soft at the desired higher temperatures and at the elevated pressure of supercritical carbon dioxide. Professor Sandhage has been collaborating with researchers at  the Georgia Institute of Technology, the University of Wisconsin – Madison, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to develop new materials that can be used in heat exchangers that operate at those higher temperatures. The results of their research have been published recently in the journal Nature.

The scientists looked at the materials used to make nozzles for solid fuel rocket engines and created new heat exchangers made from zirconium carbide and tungsten that can withstand the high temperature, high pressure supercritical carbon dioxide needed for generating electricity more efficiently. An economic analysis by Georgia Tech and Purdue researchers also showed that the scaled up manufacturing of these heat exchangers could be conducted at comparable or lower cost than for stainless steel or nickel alloy-based ones.

“Ultimately, with continued development, this technology would allow for large scale penetration of renewable solar energy into the electricity grid,” Sandhage says. “This would mean dramatic reductions in human-made carbon dioxide emissions from electricity production.” What a delicious irony that carbon dioxide — the molecule responsible for most global warming — could be used to help reduce carbon emissions from the energy generation sector. Check out the video below for more on this breakthrough research.

Niccolò di Bernardo dei Machiavelli
 

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September.

DJIA: 26,458 +199 Down. NASDAQ: 8,046 +261 Down. SP500: 2,914 +166 Down.
All three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and NASDAQ  turned up in August.  September will be critical for confirmation of this change. All 3 slow indicators failed to confirm August’s positive change making October very vulnerable to a sell-off.

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