Thursday, 18 October 2018

Trade War Drag. Trump & Saudi Arabia.


Baltic Dry Index. 1554 -24   Brent Crude 79.95

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable.

Alexander Solzhenitsyn

With each passing day that President Trump provides cover for Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, rather than demand answers and the truth, America’s standing in the world diminishes. Trump’s America is putting arms and oil deals ahead of its former standing as a beacon city on a hill. I suspect in the end, Trump’s position will ignominiously fall between two stools.

Belatedly having to recognise the obvious, but getting no thanks for finally taking a stand. The Saudis themselves seem to be setting up their Istanbul consul for the fall, but any success on that depends on what else the Turkish secret service have on their tapes and film, and whether and when they opt to leak it.

Up first, Asian markets wobble after the Fed minutes suggest more interest rate hikes to come, no matter how much President Trump seeks to bully them.

Asian markets pull back, led by sharp declines in China

Published: Oct 17, 2018 11:57 p.m. ET
Asian stock markets fell in early trading Thursday, after Wall Street closed lower and the Fed minutes suggested more interest-rate hikes ahead.

Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -0.83%   was down 0.5%, with energy stocks weak while financials were up amid fresh overnight gains in bond yields. After crude’s latest decline Wednesday, oil distributor Idemitsu Kosan 5019, -5.40%   was down 4.5% and oil explorer Inpex 1605, -2.23%   dropped 1.9%. The prospects of still-higher interest rates helped financials. Sony Financial 8729, +2.72%  , whose primary business is insurance, was up 1.9% while major bank Resona 8308, +1.10%   gained 1.5%. Elsewhere, Japan’s exports fell in September for the first time in almost two years, weighed down over fears of the U.S.-China trade dispute and a global economic slowdown.

----Chinese stocks slid further. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.99%   was down 1.7% and the Shenzhen Composite 399106, -1.68%   by 1.5% as both hit fresh four-year lows. Oil stocks were among the weakest plays, while tourism and winemakers are also underperforming. China International Travel Service 601888, -6.59%  , one of the consumer “white horses,” fell 5.7% after dropping the 10% daily limit yesterday as gambling reportedly isn’t coming to Hainan island, as some had hoped. Also, on Wednesday the U.S. Treasury declined to label China a currency manipulator, but said it was concerned about the yuan’s recent weakness.

South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -0.77%   dropped 0.6%, as the Bank of Korea announced it would keep its monetary policy steady. Chip maker SK Hynix 000660, -2.27%  was down 2%.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-pull-back-led-by-sharp-declines-in-china-2018-10-17?link=MW_latest_news

Trump reluctant to abandon Riyadh over missing journalist, wants evidence

October 17, 2018 / 6:27 AM / Updated 2 hours ago
ANKARA/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he did not want to abandon ally Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of a Saudi journalist and has asked for audio recordings Turkish sources say indicate he was killed by Saudi agents.

Trump said he was waiting for a full report on what had happened to Jamal Khashoggi from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, whom he sent to Saudi Arabia and Turkey to meet with officials over the disappearance of the Saudi government critic. Trump and Pompeo are scheduled to meet at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT) on Thursday. 

Turkish officials have said they believe Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist who was critical of the authoritarian kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2 and his body removed. The Saudis have denied the allegations.

Turkish sources have told Reuters the authorities have an audio recording indicating Khashoggi was killed inside the consulate. He has not been seen since entering the building.

Turkey’s pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper on Wednesday published what it said were details from audio recordings that purported to document Khashoggi’s torture and interrogation.

Khashoggi was killed within minutes and his torturers severed his fingers during the interrogation, the newspaper said. His killers later beheaded and dismembered him, it said.

Turkey has not shared with the U.S. government or European allies graphic audio or video evidence, seven U.S. and European security officials told Reuters. The United States and allies have collected some intelligence through their own sources and methods, which partly confirms news reports based on leaks of audio recordings, four of the sources said.

---- U.S. media outlets have reported that Riyadh, despite its earlier denials of involvement, will acknowledge that Khashoggi was killed in a botched interrogation. Trump has speculated without providing evidence that “rogue killers” could be responsible.

How the crown prince emerges from the crisis is a test of how the West will deal with Saudi Arabia in the future.

Trump has appeared unwilling to distance himself too much from the Saudis, citing Riyadh’s role in countering Iranian influence in the region - and tens of billions of dollars in potential arms deals.

Other Western nations, although expressing concern about the incident, face a similar delicate situation in their dealings with the world’s top oil exporter.
More

Saudi consul in Istanbul relieved of post, to be investigated - report

October 17, 2018 / 1:37 PM
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia’s Consul General in Istanbul, where prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi disappeared, has been relieved of his post and will be investigated, according to an official statement carried by Sabq newspaper on Wednesday. 

The Saudi online newspaper did not give details of those violations which the consul Mohammad al-Otaibi is being investigated for.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-dissident-investigation-consul/saudi-consul-in-istanbul-relieved-of-post-to-be-investigated-report-idUKKCN1MR1T7?il=0

Trump and the Saudis Grow More Isolated

But even Khashoggi's disappearance may not separate Washington and Riyadh.
By Mark Gongloff

Saudi Arabia is the top US weapons buyer – but it doesn't spend as much as Trump boasts

  • Last week Trump told reporters that he was disinterested in stopping a Saudi Arabian "investment of $110 billion into the United States," despite tensions over the disappearance of Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi.
  • While Washington has several arms agreements with Riyadh, it is unclear where the $110 billion figure comes from aside from a potential wish list of future deals.
  • Saudi Arabia remains America's No. 1 weapons buyer.

Finally, in Trump trade war news, China does more with less (soybeans.) Global trade hits tariffs drag.

Trade off: China soybean imports set for biggest drop in 12 years amid tariff conflict

October 18, 2018 / 5:01 AM / Updated an hour ago
(Reuters) - China’s soybean imports are set to drop by a quarter in the last three months of 2018, their biggest fall in at least 12 years as buyers curb purchases amid the Sino-U.S. trade war and high domestic stockpiles.

Soybeans, crushed to make protein-rich animal feed ingredients and vegetable oils, have been at the heart of the tit-for-tat trade dispute between the world’s top two economies.

China in July imposed a retaliatory 25-percent import duty on U.S. soybeans as part of the conflict, a saga that has gathered steam since then with the introduction of fresh tariffs on other products.

Soybean imports by China, which buys 60 percent of the oilseed traded worldwide, will likely decline to around 18-20 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, compared with 24.1 million tonnes in the same period last year, traders said.

“Imports will average around 6 million tonnes per month in the fourth quarter,” said a Singapore-based trader at an international company that owns oilseed processing plants in China.

“Purchases are going to be mainly from Brazil and some from Argentina and Canada. Buyers are not willing to take chances by bringing in U.S. beans,” the trader added, declining to be identified as he was not authorized to speak with media.

The benchmark Chicago soybean contract dropped to a 10-year low of $8.12-1/4 last month, although prices have since recovered on fears of crop-damage following rains ahead of the harvest in parts of the U.S. Midwest. It was trading down 0.8 percent at $8.78-1/2 on Thursday.

The landed cost of U.S. beans in China is currently similar to Brazilian soybeans even with the 25-percent tariff, but Chinese crushers are reluctant to take U.S. supply as they fear authorities may not approve cargoes and that tariffs could climb further.
More

Japan exports fall for first time since 2016 as trade war fears mount

October 18, 2018 / 1:53 AM / Updated 2 hours ago
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s exports fell in September for the first time since 2016 as shipments to the United States and China declined, likely impeding third quarter economic growth and adding to concerns about the broadening impact of an escalating Sino-U.S. trade war.

The data comes days after a Reuters poll showed a third of Japanese companies - not just exporters - have been affected by the trade conflict between the world’s two biggest economies, and more than half worried about its fallout on their business. 

Japanese policymakers also remain wary about the overall economic impact of the international trade frictions. A string of natural disasters that struck Japan has added to the strain on factories, disrupting output and physical distribution.

The U.S.-Sino tariff row has yet to materially hurt trade activity, but a slowdown in external demand has bolstered views that Japan’s economy, the world’s third largest, likely slowed sharply in the July-September quarter.

“The economy probably grew only slightly in the third quarter, led by firm consumption and brisk capex. External demand likely made no contribution,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

“Assuming the U.S.-China trade frictions have widespread effects on global trade, Japan’s exports will struggle to grow.”

Minami said declines in shipments to the United States and China - the two key export destinations for Japan - are a source of concern as each of them accounts for about 20 percent of Japanese exports, respectively.
More

Since love and fear can hardly coexist together, if we must choose between them, it is far safer to be feared than loved.

Niccolo Machiavelli.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, more on that USA v China trade war. Did somebody read Pillsbury’s book and get spooked?

Are US hawks talking tough on China because of this book?

Three years ago, an analyst predicted Washington could use The Hundred-Year Marathon to push for a tougher China policy. Now the author, Michael Pillsbury, is a White House adviser
PUBLISHED : Monday, 15 October, 2018, 9:41pm UPDATED : Tuesday, 16 October, 2018, 11:48am

A book dismissed by China’s US ambassador during a television interview may have been used to justify Washington’s recent tough rhetoric on Beijing, a political analyst said.

The ambassador, Cui Tiankai, said during his interview with Fox News Sunday’s Chris Wallace that he “would not recommend” The Hundred-Year Marathon by Michael Pillsbury, a White House adviser who has written several books on China.

Subtitled China’s secret strategy to replace America as the global superpower, the book claims that Beijing has a century-long plan built on a series of strategic deceptions to use the US to help it develop before it ultimately takes over as the world’s leading superpower.

The ambassador, Cui Tiankai, said during his interview with Fox News Sunday’s Chris Wallace that he “would not recommend” The Hundred-Year Marathon by Michael Pillsbury, a White House adviser who has written several books on China.

Subtitled China’s secret strategy to replace America as the global superpower, the book claims that Beijing has a century-long plan built on a series of strategic deceptions to use the US to help it develop before it ultimately takes over as the world’s leading superpower.

“It was not that he convinced them to contain China. It was they who wanted to contain China [who] found his book useful,” Wu told the South China Morning Post.

Pillsbury argues in his book that China aims to gain global hegemony by 2049 – the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The author warns the US government to stop making false assumptions and take countermeasures to prevent America from falling behind an advancing China.

In his appearance on Fox, Cui told Wallace that China’s only goal was “for people to have a better life”.

“We don’t want to challenge or replace anybody else in the world. We want to build a community of nations for shared future together with all the rest of the world, including the US,” he said.

Although Pillsbury’s points were viewed as radical and controversial when the book was first published in 2015, they have been echoed in the remarks of top Trump administration figures. Last month, US President Donald Trump referred to Pillsbury as “the leading authority on China”.

Wu noted that the setting for US Vice-President Mike Pence’s harsh October 4 speech on China was the Hudson Institute, a conservative Washington think tank where Pillsbury serves as director of the Centre on Chinese Strategy.

Pillsbury was present for the speech, which some observers described as a declaration of a “new cold war”.

Some of Pence’s criticism of China bore clear similarities to theories outlined in Pillsbury’s book, Wu said. He cited the vice-president’s saying that China had failed to fulfil the hope of previous administrations that the Asian nation was on the road to democracy and freedom.
More


"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."

F. A. von Hayek

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Exploring new spintronics device functionalities in graphene heterostructures

Date: October 16, 2018

Source: Graphene Flagship

Summary: Graphene Flagship researchers have shown how heterostructures built from graphene and topological insulators have strong, proximity induced spin-orbit coupling which can form the basis of novel information processing technologies.

Graphene Flagship researchers have shown in a paper published in Science Advances how heterostructures built from graphene and topological insulators have strong, proximity induced spin-orbit coupling which can form the basis of novel information processing technologies.

Spin-orbit coupling is at the heart of spintronics. Graphene's spin-orbit coupling and high electron mobility make it appealing for long spin coherence length at room temperature. Graphene Flagship researchers from Chalmers University of Technology (Sweden), Catalan Institute of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology -- ICN2 (Spain), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Spain) and ICREA Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (Spain) showed a strong tunability and suppression of the spin signal and spin lifetime in heterostructures formed by graphene and topological insulators. This can lead to new graphene spintronic applications, ranging from novel circuits to new non-volatile memories and information processing technologies.

"The advantage of using heterostructures built from two Dirac materials is that, graphene in proximity with topological insulators still supports spin transport, and concurrently acquires a strong spin-orbit coupling," said Associate Professor Saroj Prasad Dash, from Chalmers University of Technology.

"We do not just want to transport spin we want to manipulate it," said Professor Stephan Roche from ICN2 and deputy leader of the Graphene Flagship's spintronics Work-Package, "the use of topological insulators is a new dimension for spintronics, they have a surface state similar to graphene and can combine to create new hybrid states and new spin features. By combining graphene in this way we can use the tuneable density of states to switch on/off -- to conduct or not conduct spin. This opens an active spin device playground."

The Graphene Flagship, from its very beginning, saw the potential of spintronics devices made from graphene and related materials. This paper shows how combining graphene with other materials to make heterostructures opens new possibilities and potential applications.
More
  

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September.

DJIA: 26,458 +199 Down. NASDAQ: 8,046 +261 Down. SP500: 2,914 +166 Down.
All three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and NASDAQ  turned up in August.  September will be critical for confirmation of this change. All 3 slow indicators failed to confirm August’s positive change making October very vulnerable to a sell-off.

No comments:

Post a Comment