Baltic Dry Index. 1554 -24 Brent Crude 79.95
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible
at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable.
Alexander
Solzhenitsyn
With each passing day
that President Trump provides cover for Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown
Prince Mohammad bin Salman, rather than demand answers and the truth, America’s
standing in the world diminishes. Trump’s America is putting arms and oil deals
ahead of its former standing as a beacon city on a hill. I suspect in the end,
Trump’s position will ignominiously fall between two stools.
Belatedly having to
recognise the obvious, but getting no thanks for finally taking a stand. The
Saudis themselves seem to be setting up their Istanbul consul for the fall, but
any success on that depends on what else the Turkish secret service have on
their tapes and film, and whether and when they opt to leak it.
Up first, Asian
markets wobble after the Fed minutes suggest more interest rate hikes to come,
no matter how much President Trump seeks to bully them.
Asian markets pull back, led by sharp declines in China
Published: Oct 17, 2018 11:57 p.m. ET
Asian stock markets fell in early trading Thursday, after Wall Street closed
lower and the Fed minutes suggested more interest-rate hikes ahead.Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -0.83% was down 0.5%, with energy stocks weak while financials were up amid fresh overnight gains in bond yields. After crude’s latest decline Wednesday, oil distributor Idemitsu Kosan 5019, -5.40% was down 4.5% and oil explorer Inpex 1605, -2.23% dropped 1.9%. The prospects of still-higher interest rates helped financials. Sony Financial 8729, +2.72% , whose primary business is insurance, was up 1.9% while major bank Resona 8308, +1.10% gained 1.5%. Elsewhere, Japan’s exports fell in September for the first time in almost two years, weighed down over fears of the U.S.-China trade dispute and a global economic slowdown.
----Chinese stocks slid further. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.99% was down 1.7% and the Shenzhen Composite 399106, -1.68% by 1.5% as both hit fresh four-year lows. Oil stocks were among the weakest plays, while tourism and winemakers are also underperforming. China International Travel Service 601888, -6.59% , one of the consumer “white horses,” fell 5.7% after dropping the 10% daily limit yesterday as gambling reportedly isn’t coming to Hainan island, as some had hoped. Also, on Wednesday the U.S. Treasury declined to label China a currency manipulator, but said it was concerned about the yuan’s recent weakness.
South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -0.77% dropped 0.6%, as the Bank of Korea announced it would keep its monetary policy steady. Chip maker SK Hynix 000660, -2.27% was down 2%.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-pull-back-led-by-sharp-declines-in-china-2018-10-17?link=MW_latest_news
Trump reluctant to abandon Riyadh over missing journalist, wants evidence
October 17, 2018 / 6:27 AM / Updated 2
hours ago
ANKARA/WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he did not want to
abandon ally Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of a Saudi journalist and has
asked for audio recordings Turkish sources say indicate he was killed by Saudi
agents.
Trump said he was waiting for a full report on what had happened to
Jamal Khashoggi from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, whom he sent to Saudi
Arabia and Turkey to meet with officials over the disappearance of the Saudi
government critic. Trump and Pompeo are scheduled to meet at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT)
on Thursday.
Turkish officials have said they believe Khashoggi, a Washington Post
columnist who was critical of the authoritarian kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman, was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2 and his
body removed. The Saudis have denied the allegations.
Turkish sources have told Reuters the authorities have an audio
recording indicating Khashoggi was killed inside the consulate. He has not been
seen since entering the building.
Turkey’s pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper on Wednesday
published what it said were details from audio recordings that purported to
document Khashoggi’s torture and interrogation.
Khashoggi was killed within minutes and his torturers severed his
fingers during the interrogation, the newspaper said. His killers later
beheaded and dismembered him, it said.
Turkey has not shared with the U.S. government or European allies
graphic audio or video evidence, seven U.S. and European security officials
told Reuters. The United States and allies have collected some intelligence
through their own sources and methods, which partly confirms news reports based
on leaks of audio recordings, four of the sources said.
---- U.S. media outlets have reported that Riyadh, despite its earlier denials of involvement, will acknowledge that Khashoggi was killed in a botched interrogation. Trump has speculated without providing evidence that “rogue killers” could be responsible.
How the crown prince emerges from the crisis is a test of how the West
will deal with Saudi Arabia in the future.
Trump has appeared unwilling to distance himself too much from the
Saudis, citing Riyadh’s role in countering Iranian influence in the region -
and tens of billions of dollars in potential arms deals.
Other Western nations, although expressing concern about the incident,
face a similar delicate situation in their dealings with the world’s top oil
exporter.
More
Saudi consul in Istanbul relieved of post, to be investigated - report
October 17, 2018 / 1:37 PM
DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia’s Consul General in Istanbul, where
prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi disappeared, has been relieved of
his post and will be investigated, according to an official statement carried
by Sabq newspaper on Wednesday.
The Saudi online newspaper did not give details of those violations
which the consul Mohammad al-Otaibi is being investigated for.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-saudi-dissident-investigation-consul/saudi-consul-in-istanbul-relieved-of-post-to-be-investigated-report-idUKKCN1MR1T7?il=0Trump and the Saudis Grow More Isolated
But even Khashoggi's disappearance may not separate Washington and Riyadh.By Mark Gongloff
Saudi Arabia is the top US weapons buyer – but it doesn't spend as much as Trump boasts
- Last week Trump told reporters that he was disinterested in stopping a Saudi Arabian "investment of $110 billion into the United States," despite tensions over the disappearance of Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi.
- While Washington has several arms agreements with Riyadh, it is unclear where the $110 billion figure comes from aside from a potential wish list of future deals.
- Saudi Arabia remains America's No. 1 weapons buyer.
Finally, in Trump trade war news, China does more with less
(soybeans.) Global trade hits tariffs drag.
Trade off: China soybean imports set for biggest drop in 12 years amid tariff conflict
October 18, 2018 / 5:01 AM / Updated an
hour ago
(Reuters)
- China’s soybean imports are set to drop by a quarter in the last three months
of 2018, their biggest fall in at least 12 years as buyers curb purchases amid
the Sino-U.S. trade war and high domestic stockpiles.
Soybeans, crushed to make protein-rich animal feed ingredients and
vegetable oils, have been at the heart of the tit-for-tat trade dispute between
the world’s top two economies.
China in July imposed a retaliatory 25-percent import duty on U.S.
soybeans as part of the conflict, a saga that has gathered steam since then
with the introduction of fresh tariffs on other products.
Soybean imports by China, which buys 60 percent of the oilseed traded
worldwide, will likely decline to around 18-20 million tonnes in the fourth
quarter, compared with 24.1 million tonnes in the same period last year,
traders said.
“Imports will average around 6 million tonnes per month in
the fourth quarter,” said a Singapore-based trader at an international company
that owns oilseed processing plants in China.
“Purchases are going to be mainly from Brazil and some from Argentina
and Canada. Buyers are not willing to take chances by bringing in U.S. beans,”
the trader added, declining to be identified as he was not authorized to speak
with media.
The benchmark Chicago soybean contract dropped to a 10-year low of
$8.12-1/4 last month, although prices have since recovered on fears of
crop-damage following rains ahead of the harvest in parts of the U.S. Midwest.
It was trading down 0.8 percent at $8.78-1/2 on Thursday.
The landed cost of U.S. beans in China is currently similar to Brazilian
soybeans even with the 25-percent tariff, but Chinese crushers are reluctant to
take U.S. supply as they fear authorities may not approve cargoes and that
tariffs could climb further.
More
Japan exports fall for first time since 2016 as trade war fears mount
October 18, 2018 / 1:53 AM / Updated 2
hours ago
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Japan’s exports fell in September for the first time since 2016 as
shipments to the United States and China declined, likely impeding third
quarter economic growth and adding to concerns about the broadening impact of
an escalating Sino-U.S. trade war.
The data comes days after a Reuters poll showed a third of Japanese
companies - not just exporters - have been affected by the trade conflict
between the world’s two biggest economies, and more than half worried about its
fallout on their business.
Japanese policymakers also remain wary about the overall economic impact
of the international trade frictions. A string of natural disasters that struck
Japan has added to the strain on factories, disrupting output and physical
distribution.
The U.S.-Sino tariff row has yet to materially hurt trade activity, but
a slowdown in external demand has bolstered views that Japan’s economy, the
world’s third largest, likely slowed sharply in the July-September quarter.
“The economy probably grew only slightly in the third quarter, led by
firm consumption and brisk capex. External demand likely made no contribution,”
said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
“Assuming the U.S.-China trade frictions have widespread effects on
global trade, Japan’s exports will struggle to grow.”
Minami said declines in shipments to the United States and China - the
two key export destinations for Japan - are a source of concern as each of them
accounts for about 20 percent of Japanese exports, respectively.
More
Since love and fear can
hardly coexist together, if we must choose between them, it is far safer to be
feared than loved.
Niccolo Machiavelli.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, more on that USA v China trade war. Did somebody read Pillsbury’s
book and get spooked?
Are US hawks talking tough on China because of this book?
Three years ago, an analyst predicted Washington could use The Hundred-Year Marathon to push for a tougher China policy. Now the author, Michael Pillsbury, is a White House adviser
PUBLISHED
: Monday, 15 October, 2018, 9:41pm UPDATED : Tuesday, 16 October, 2018, 11:48am
A
book dismissed by China’s US ambassador during a television interview may have
been used to justify Washington’s recent tough rhetoric on Beijing, a political
analyst said.
The ambassador, Cui Tiankai, said during his interview with Fox News
Sunday’s Chris Wallace that he “would not recommend” The Hundred-Year
Marathon by Michael Pillsbury, a White House adviser who has written
several books on China.
Subtitled China’s secret strategy to replace America as the global
superpower, the book claims that Beijing has a century-long plan built on a
series of strategic deceptions to use the US to help it develop before it
ultimately takes over as the world’s leading superpower.
The ambassador, Cui Tiankai, said during his interview with Fox News
Sunday’s Chris Wallace that he “would not recommend” The Hundred-Year
Marathon by Michael Pillsbury, a White House adviser who has written
several books on China.
Subtitled China’s secret strategy to replace America as the global
superpower, the book claims that Beijing has a century-long plan built on a
series of strategic deceptions to use the US to help it develop before it
ultimately takes over as the world’s leading superpower.
“It
was not that he convinced them to contain China. It was they who wanted to
contain China [who] found his book useful,” Wu told the South China Morning Post.
Pillsbury argues in his book that China aims to gain global hegemony by
2049 – the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of
China. The author warns the US government to stop making false assumptions and
take countermeasures to prevent America from falling behind an advancing China.
In his appearance on Fox, Cui told Wallace that China’s only goal was
“for people to have a better life”.
“We don’t want to challenge or replace anybody else in the world. We
want to build a community of nations for shared future together with all the
rest of the world, including the US,” he said.
Although Pillsbury’s points were viewed as radical and controversial
when the book was first published in 2015, they have been echoed in the remarks
of top Trump administration figures. Last month, US President Donald Trump
referred to Pillsbury as “the leading authority on China”.
Wu noted that the setting for US Vice-President Mike Pence’s harsh
October 4 speech on China was the Hudson Institute, a conservative Washington
think tank where Pillsbury serves as director of the Centre on Chinese
Strategy.
Pillsbury was present for the speech, which some observers described as
a declaration of a “new cold war”.
Some of Pence’s criticism of China bore clear similarities to theories
outlined in Pillsbury’s book, Wu said. He cited the vice-president’s saying
that China had failed to fulfil the hope of previous administrations that the
Asian nation was on the road to democracy and freedom.
More
F. A. von Hayek
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Exploring new spintronics device functionalities in graphene heterostructures
Date:
October 16, 2018
Source:
Graphene Flagship
Summary:
Graphene Flagship researchers have shown how heterostructures built from
graphene and topological insulators have strong, proximity induced spin-orbit
coupling which can form the basis of novel information processing technologies.
Graphene Flagship researchers have shown in a paper published in Science
Advances how heterostructures built from graphene and topological
insulators have strong, proximity induced spin-orbit coupling which can form
the basis of novel information processing technologies.
Spin-orbit coupling is at the heart of spintronics. Graphene's
spin-orbit coupling and high electron mobility make it appealing for long spin
coherence length at room temperature. Graphene Flagship researchers from
Chalmers University of Technology (Sweden), Catalan Institute of Nanoscience
and Nanotechnology -- ICN2 (Spain), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Spain)
and ICREA Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (Spain) showed a
strong tunability and suppression of the spin signal and spin lifetime in
heterostructures formed by graphene and topological insulators. This can lead
to new graphene spintronic applications, ranging from novel circuits to new
non-volatile memories and information processing technologies.
"The advantage of using heterostructures built from two Dirac
materials is that, graphene in proximity with topological insulators still
supports spin transport, and concurrently acquires a strong spin-orbit
coupling," said Associate Professor Saroj Prasad Dash, from Chalmers University
of Technology.
"We do not just want to transport spin we want to manipulate
it," said Professor Stephan Roche from ICN2 and deputy leader of the
Graphene Flagship's spintronics Work-Package, "the use of topological
insulators is a new dimension for spintronics, they have a surface state
similar to graphene and can combine to create new hybrid states and new spin
features. By combining graphene in this way we can use the tuneable density of
states to switch on/off -- to conduct or not conduct spin. This opens an active
spin device playground."
The Graphene Flagship, from its very beginning, saw the potential of
spintronics devices made from graphene and related materials. This paper shows
how combining graphene with other materials to make heterostructures opens new
possibilities and potential applications.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September.
DJIA: 26,458 +199 Down. NASDAQ:
8,046 +261 Down. SP500: 2,914 +166 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and NASDAQ turned up in August. September will be critical for confirmation
of this change. All 3 slow indicators failed to confirm August’s positive
change making October very vulnerable to a sell-off.
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