Baltic Dry Index. 1536 -18 Brent Crude 83.35
If
you’re spending your own money on yourself, you care about price and quality.
If you’re spending someone else’s money on yourself, you only care about
quality. If you’re spending your own money on someone else, you care only about
price. And if you’re spending someone else’s money on someone else, you don’t
care about either.
Milton Friedman
It is the Columbus
Day celebration in the USA. Stock markets are open, but the bond market is
closed. Will US stocks get a relief rally today after their hammering from
rising bond yields last week? Maybe, but Asian stocks suggest otherwise, though
Tokyo is closed for a health holiday.
In the oil market, is
a little sanity surfacing in Washington, District of Crooks? Possibly, but it’s
unlikely to last.
Below, another week
closer to the US mid-term elections and the showdown with Iran.
China stocks stumble despite central bank liquidity support
October 8, 2018 / 2:00 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Shares in Asia staggered on Monday as China’s markets
stumbled despite its central bank moving to pump more liquidity into the
broader economy, as worries grow of a sharp knock to growth from an escalating
trade dispute with the United States. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on
Sunday cut the level of cash that banks must hold as reserves, aimed at
lowering financing costs as policy makers worry about fallout from the tariff
row with the United States.
Reserve requirement ratios (RRRs) - currently 15.5 percent for large
commercial lenders and 13.5 percent for smaller banks - would be cut by 100
basis points effective Oct. 15, the PBOC said, matching a similar-sized move in
April.
Asian shares were also hit on Monday as investors in Chinese stocks
reacted for the first time to new pressure from Washington and a report that
Chinese spies had compromised U.S. hardware.
China’s blue-chip CSI300 index was 3.6 percent lower in morning trade,
while the country’s main Shanghai Composite Index lost 3 percent. The
tech-heavy ChiNext board fell 2.9 percent.
“We expect the PBoC will continue its easing efforts to keep liquidity ample and loosen its credit control to make funds more accessible to the broader economy,” BofA Merrill Lynch analysts said in a note.
“Moreover, there is still room for further RRR cuts when necessary, though the chance for an interest rate cut is limited given the continued Fed rate hiking cycle, in our view.”
On Thursday, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence highlighted disputes with China on issues such as cyber attacks, Taiwan, freedom of the seas and human rights, marking a sharpened U.S. approach towards China beyond a bitter trade war.
Then on Friday, Chinese technology stocks listed in Hong Kong, including Lenovo (0992.HK) and ZTE Corp (0763.HK), slumped on a Bloomberg report that the systems of multiple U.S. companies had been compromised by malicious computer chips inserted by Chinese spies.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/china-stocks-stumble-despite-central-bank-liquidity-support-idUKKCN1MI01Q
Oil drops as U.S. considers granting some waivers on Iran crude sanctions
October 8, 2018 / 1:45 AM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Brent crude oil
prices fell more than 1 percent on Monday after Washington said it may grant
waivers to sanctions against Iran’s oil exports next month, and as Saudi Arabia
was said to be replacing any potential shortfall from Iran.
International benchmark Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $83.26 per
barrel at 0352 GMT, down 90 cents, or 1.1 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 54
cents, or 0.7 percent, at $73.80 a barrel.
U.S. sanctions will target Iran’s crude oil exports from Nov. 4, and
Washington has been putting pressure on governments and companies worldwide to
cut their imports to zero.
However, a U.S. government official said on Friday that the country
could consider exemptions for nations that have already shown efforts to reduce
their imports of Iranian oil.
In a sign that Iran oil exports won’t fall to nothing from November,
India will buy 9 million barrels of Iranian crude next month, Reuters reported
on Friday.
Hedge funds cut their bullish wagers on U.S. crude in the latest week to
the lowest level in nearly a year, data showed on Friday.
Traders said ongoing concerns that the U.S.-Chinese trade war could slow
down economic growth also weighed on crude on Monday.
---- Further weighing on oil prices was “chatter that Saudi Arabia has replaced all of Iran’s lost oil”, said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore.
But Innes warned that limited spare production to deal with further
supply disruptions meant “the capacity is quickly declining due to Asia’s
insatiable demand”.
The U.S. oil drilling rig count fell for a third consecutive week, as
rising costs and pipeline bottlenecks have hindered new drilling since June.
Drillers cut two oil rigs in the week to Oct. 5, bringing the total
count down to 861, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its weekly report
on Friday. RIG-OL-USA-BHI
That is the longest streak of weekly cuts since October last year.
With Iran sanctions still on the table, potential spare capacity
constraints and also a slowdown in U.S. drilling, U.S. bank J.P.Morgan said in
its latest cross-asset outlook for clients that it recommended to “stay long
Jan ‘19 WTI on supply risks to crude”.
Bond-market bloodbath likely to hit mortgage rates soon — another test for the housing market
Published: Oct 6, 2018 10:19 a.m. ET
Rates for home loans moved sideways in the most recent week, but the burgeoning
bond market sell-off will likely hit mortgages in the coming weeks, setting up
another test for a strained housing market. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.71% in the October 4 week, down one basis point from 4.72%, mortgage liquidity provider Freddie Mac said Thursday. That snapped a five-week stretch of gains for the benchmark product, which had recently hit its highest point since April, 2011.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.15%, also down one basis point. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 4.01%, up from 3.97%.
Mortgage rates track the 10-year U.S.
Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.37% but with a lag. In the
days covered by Freddie’s survey, bonds were whipsawed by geo-political events.
The announcement of a trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico buoyed
stocks and diminished interest in bonds on Monday. But by Tuesday, concerns
about Italy’s fiscal problems rattled markets, sending investors back into the
perceived safety of bonds.
For now, there’s little fresh housing data, a reprieve after a dismal stretch of reports on new-home sales, existing-home sales and new construction. But the specter of higher rates is distorting the mortgage market in unexpected ways.
On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association noted that the average interest rate on 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages had hit its highest ever, although the group has only been tracking ARMs since 2011. (“5/1” means that the mortgage carries a set interest rate for the first five years of its life, and then re-sets every one year.)
Adjustable-rate mortgages, unlike fixed-rate ones, follow the path of short-term interest rates, which are currently being nudged upward by the Federal Reserve. Some analysts think the compressed yield curve — the spread between rates demanded for longer-dated bonds versus shorter ones — is what’s making ARMs so unattractive.
More
Question - Who was the first liberal Democrat?
Answer - Christopher Columbus. He left not knowing where he was going, got there not knowing where he was, left not knowing where he'd been and did it all on borrowed money.
Answer - Christopher Columbus. He left not knowing where he was going, got there not knowing where he was, left not knowing where he'd been and did it all on borrowed money.
Anon.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, bonds. After a 3-decade long US bond rally, the decade plus long
bond bear market? But today a bond market relief break for Columbus Day.
Why Monday may offer a respite for stock-market investors after a bruising bond rout
Published: Oct 7, 2018 3:42 p.m. ET
U.S. stock markets are open for trade on Monday, but bond markets are closed
in observance of Columbus Day.And, perhaps, the recommended pause in fixed-income action in the U.S. couldn’t come at a better period for equity investors, after a stretch in which an acceleration in long-dated government bond yields to multiyear highs unsettled markets.
On Friday, the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.37% rose 3 basis points to a seven-year high of 3.227%, contributing to a weeklong climb of 17.1 basis points, or 0.171 percentage point, marking its most severe weekly advance since February. Bond prices fall as yields rise.
Although the rise in yields has been seen as reflecting growing perceptions that the economy is strong, the pace of rate increases in benchmark yields, used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, has caught many investors flat-footed, and forced a reassessment of assets perceived as risky, like stocks, against so-called risk-free government debt by comparison.
The velocity of the recent rate move was partly exacerbated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s declaration on Wednesday that “we are a long way from neutral at this point,” during an interview in Washington hosted by the Atlantic. The neutral rate refers to the point at which interest rates neither boost nor slow the economy, and many investors interpreted the comments as suggesting that the Fed may be eager to raise federal-funds rates more rapidly than had been previously expected.
Read: 3 reasons why U.S. government bond yields are soaring
As a result, the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -1.16% —populated by some of the most richly valued technology and internet-related stocks—put in its worst weekly decline since March 23, dropping 3.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.68% logged its steepest two-session fall since June 19 and S&P 500 index SPX, -0.55% suffered its ugliest back-to-back percentage loss since May 29, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
All the Nightmares for Stock Investors Start in the Bond Market
By Lu Wang and Sarah Ponczek
5 October 2018, 21:24 GMT+1
If there’s one thing the prophets agree on, it’s that the end will come in
the bond market. Even for stocks.Prophesies of doom are everywhere. There’s billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller, who says our “massive debt problem” will ignite a crisis. Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks warns that public and private debt will be “ground zero when things next go wrong.” And Citadel’s Ken Griffin, who sees a binge ending badly.
If there’s one thing the prophets agree on, it’s that the end will come in the bond market. Even for stocks.
Prophesies of doom are everywhere. There’s billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller, who says our “massive debt problem” will ignite a crisis. Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks warns that public and private debt will be “ground zero when things next go wrong.” And Citadel’s Ken Griffin, who sees a binge ending badly.
If you’re an equity investor, all the hectoring has probably left you frazzled, staring anxiously at fixed-income markets for early signs of the apocalypse. So it’s no mystery why the sight of 10-year Treasury yields spinning higher at the fastest rate in two years was enough to send the S&P 500 to its worst two-day tumble since May.
“There
are a lot of people waiting for the world to end because of this bond market,”
said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial
Network, which oversees $156 billion. “Low rates will keep going forever -- a
lot of justification for high valuations is based on the assumption. That
assumption is largely broken.”
To be sure, the biggest weekly decline in a month for the S&P 500 wasn’t that big -- just 1 percent. Which is testament to how hard it’s been to worry stock traders. If this episode is different, if it rises above past threats that couldn’t lay a glove on stocks -- trade wars, emerging economy implosions -- it’s because it has its root in something investors have trouble brushing aside: credit.
Any number of bond market hypotheticals are capable of terrifying stock bulls. They pertain to the startling amount of credit swirling around the U.S. economy -- and the possibility it will turn sour. The government’s budget deficit has swelled, contributing to the country’s debt load, now at $21.5 trillion.
Meanwhile, corporate America has gone on a borrowing spree to take advantage of near-record low rates. Excluding financials, S&P 500 companies have more than doubled their borrowings to $5 trillion over the past decade, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Should interest rates rise and growth slow, companies are bound to see to their financial soundness deteriorate. More than $1 trillion of investment grade corporate bonds could be cut in the next downgrade cycle, according to analysis this week by Morgan Stanley.
“Leverage
is near all-time highs, and companies used tax reform proceeds for buybacks
instead of paying down debt,” said Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation for
Pacific Life Fund Advisors, which manages $40 billion. “More than triple the
debt that came due in 2018 will be due each year from ’19-’21. If yields go up,
there’s real concern about companies’ ability to reissue and keep their
leverage.”
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Part-organic invention can be used in bendable mobile phones
Date:
October 5, 2018
Source:
Australian National University
Summary:
Engineers have invented a semiconductor with organic and inorganic materials
that can convert electricity into light very efficiently, and it is thin and
flexible enough to help make devices such as mobile phones bendable.
The invention also opens the door to a new generation of
high-performance electronic devices made with organic materials that will be
biodegradable or that can be easily recycled, promising to help substantially
reduce e-waste.
The huge volumes of e-waste generated by discarded electronic devices
around the world is causing irreversible damage to the environment. Australia
produces 200,000 tonnes of e-waste every year -- only four per cent of this
waste is recycled.
The organic component has the thickness of just one atom -- made from
just carbon and hydrogen -- and forms part of the semiconductor that the ANU
team developed. The inorganic component has the thickness of around two atoms.
The hybrid structure can convert electricity into light efficiently for
displays on mobile phones, televisions and other electronic devices.
Lead senior researcher Associate Professor Larry Lu said the invention
was a major breakthrough in the field.
"For the first time, we have developed an ultra-thin electronics
component with excellent semiconducting properties that is an organic-inorganic
hybrid structure and thin and flexible enough for future technologies, such as
bendable mobile phones and display screens," said Associate Professor Lu from
the ANU Research School of Engineering.
PhD researcher Ankur Sharma, who recently won the ANU 3-Minute Thesis
competition, said experiments demonstrated the performance of their
semiconductor would be much more efficient than conventional semiconductors
made with inorganic materials such as silicon.
"We have the potential with this semiconductor to make mobile
phones as powerful as today's supercomputers," said Mr Sharma from the ANU
Research School of Engineering.
"The light emission from our semiconducting structure is very
sharp, so it can be used for high-resolution displays and, since the materials
are ultra-thin, they have the flexibility to be made into bendable screens and
mobile phones in the near future."
The team grew the organic semiconductor component molecule by molecule,
in a similar way to 3D printing. The process is called chemical vapour
deposition.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September.
DJIA: 26,458 +199 Down. NASDAQ:
8,046 +261 Down. SP500: 2,914 +166 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and NASDAQ turned up in August. September will be critical for confirmation
of this change. All 3 slow indicators failed to confirm August’s positive
change making October very vulnerable to a sell off.
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