Baltic Dry Index. 1577 -02 Brent Crude 76.71
It has
been my experience that competency in mathematics, both in numerical
manipulations and in understanding its conceptual foundations, enhances a
person's ability to handle the more ambiguous and qualitative relationships
that dominate our day-to-day financial decision-making.
Alan Greenspan.
With Iran sanctions
now just 11 days away, an iffy US election just 13 days away, Italy told to
produce a real budget within three weeks, President Trump and Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammad squirming in a murderous limelight, and China’s stock market barely
responding to official support, global stocks took fright yesterday. Today a
dead cat bounce, but sentiment has changed from bull to bear.
Sell the rallies
replaces buy the dips, but for how long? A 3 decade long bond bull market has
ended, replaced by “normalisation,” and a Fed looking to scale down its
portfolio of rescued bonds. With China in a no holds barred trade war with
Trump’s America, don’t look for China to be more than a marginal buyer of US
debt ahead. Does a decade long bear market now rule in bonds?
If it does, a decade
long bear market now gets to maul global stocks. Made worse by an avalanche of
global debt set to default, led by emerging markets, Italy, and ending in the
realm of Uncle Scam.
Below, did a bad
angry Grizzly bear just wake up?
It's
not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make
when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.
George
Soros.
Asia stocks struggle as global woes persist, oil near two-month lows
October 24, 2018 / 4:24 AM
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Asian stocks edged lower on Wednesday as concerns, ranging from
worries about U.S. corporate earnings to Middle East tensions, weighed on
sentiment while crude oil approached two-month lows after Saudi Arabia flagged
possible supply increases.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS
was down 0.2 percent, extending the decline of more than 2 percent in the
previous session.
Global stocks have suffered this week on worries about U.S. earnings,
Italian government finances, U.S. trade tensions and mounting pressure on Saudi
Arabia over the death of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic standing looked increasingly precarious as
Turkey dismissed the kingdom’s efforts to blame Khashoggi’s death on rogue
operatives while U.S. President Donald Trump said Riyadh staged the “worst
cover-up ever.”
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3 percent while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC retreated 0.6 percent.
South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 slipped 0.25 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 lost 0.35 percent, handing back earlier gains.
Equity losses in the region were modest, however, after a late round of buying helped Wall Street indexes pare most of their earlier panic-driven losses.
Wall Street’s three major indexes slumped early on Tuesday but ended
well off the day’s lows as investors snapped up beaten-down shares late in the
session. [.N]
“Broader market sentiment remains fragile, but as last night’s
resilience by Wall Street shows, sentiment has not broken down completely,” said
Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.
More
One of China's Biggest Funds Is Getting Ready to Dump Stocks
Bloomberg News
23 October 2018, 10:10 GMT+1
China Everbright Ltd.,
the state-backed manager of about HK$139 billion ($18 billion) in assets, said
the company is preparing to sell shares in as many as 30 stocks on concern that
valuations worldwide have peaked.There are 20 to 30 companies in China Everbright’s global portfolio that are ripe for exit after they went through initial public offerings, Chief Executive Officer Chen Shuang said in an interview in Hangzhou on Tuesday. Though he didn’t specify which stocks Everbright would sell out of, Chen said the company is planning to make its exits "as soon as possible."
"We will be actively disposing of assets and be prudent about new
investments," Chen said. "Global markets including the U.S. have
peaked. We should be prepared for the next round of financial crises and
turmoils."
Everbright, which has invested in more than 300 companies worldwide,
joins the wave of pessimism rippling through markets recently. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index is approaching a bear market amid geopolitical tensions, receding
optimism over U.S. stocks, as well as a possible slowdown in earnings and
economic growth.
More
The stock market faces ‘unlimited downside risk,’ warns veteran trader
By MarketWatch Published: Oct 23, 2018 5:00 p.m. ET
The stock market opened with a resounding thud on Tuesday morning, as the
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.50% , at one point, had shed
more than 500 points. The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.55% and the Nasdaq
Composite COMP, -0.42% endured even harder
hits, down more than 2% each.Read: Dow plunges amid corporate outlook, China selloff
So, you must positioning yourself for that tasty bounce we’ve grown accustomed to over the course of this stubborn bull market. Well, don’t, warns J.C. Parets, the technical analyst behind the All Star Charts blog.
“There is unlimited downside risk in the market right now and I don’t
think it’s being respected,” he wrote. “It’s not until afterwards that they
ask, ‘what happened?’” When the bottom falls out, that’s when the blaming
begins.
“The Fed, the Trump, the ebola, or whatever excuse du jour is being
regurgitated on the various media outlets,” Parets wrote. “The only one to
blame is ourselves.”
He pointed to several divergences that should make clear to investors
just how precarious the market situation is at these current levels. The first
one is what we’re seeing in this chart of the S&P vs. the rest of the
world.
----“The divergence is telling,” Parets explained in his blog post. “The last time we saw this was at the 2015 market top.”
Another divergence we haven’t seen since the 2015 top, and, before that,
the 2007 top, is the relationship between consumer staples and the broader
market.
“When stocks fall, staples get a sympathy bid and outperform due to that
very same lower beta and their defensive qualities,” Parets said. “With new
highs in stocks, bulls want to see new lows in relative strength for staples.
That’s a normal environment. It’s when they diverge that it is evidence of
something changing.”
And finally, Parets took a look at what Dow Theory is telling us.
This idea here is that when either industrial or transportation stocks
make new highs, it’s important for the other to follow. When that confirmation
doesn’t come, there’s cause for concern.
“We saw these divergences lead to collapses in 2000, 2007 and more recently a severe selloff in 2015,” Parets wrote. “You can see that with new highs in the Dow this month, transports put in a lower high, typical behavior at market tops.”
He laid out some more troubling divergences, but you get the idea. Parets, who was much more bullish on stocks over the summer, now sees a crash on the horizon, and he recommends investors lighten their equity load.
More
Finally, yet another red flag for the global
economy. Are we already rolling over from boom to bust?
Ford in Spain to halt car production for nine days due to low demand: spokesman
October 23, 2018 / 9:49 AM / Updated 4
hours ago
MADRID
(Reuters) - U.S. car manufacturer Ford (F.N)
will stop car production in its plant in Almussafes in eastern Spain for nine
days during November due to a lower demand for its vehicles, a spokesman said
on Tuesday.
Engine
production would also be halted for 13 days next month, he said. Part of the
Spanish production of Ford engines is sent to Canada for assembly of its Edge
model.
The latest production shut down comes after a three-day halt in October.
Ford employs some 7,500 workers at the Almussafes plant which produces
around 1,840 cars a day.
Ford names new China head to tackle daunting turnaround task
October 24, 2018 / 1:19 AM / Updated 21
minutes ago
BEIJING/SHANGHAI
(Reuters) - Ford Motor Co (F.N) has hired a new chief for its troubled
China operations, ending a nine-month search after the previous head suddenly
quit and tasking him with fixing a deep sales slump in the world’s biggest car
market.
Anning
Chen, 57, a former Ford engineer and chairman of Chery Jaguar Land Rover in
China, will take the helm from Nov. 1. An American national, he has roughly 14
years experience of working in China.
The
move comes at a pivotal time for Ford which has struggled to turn around a
sharp slide in China sales this year, hurt by lack of local leadership and a popular
SUV for the market as well as rocky relationships with its Chinese joint
venture partners.
----
Ford’s vehicle sales fell 43 percent in September from a year earlier and are
down 30 percent in the first nine months of the year. Ford blames its weak China
business on an aging model lineup that is awaiting an overhaul.
---- The appointment comes as Ford restructures operations worldwide and the U.S. automaker said its China business will now become stand-alone business unit, reporting directly to global headquarters. Chen will report to Jim Farley, president of global markets.
“China is absolutely essential to Ford’s profitability and growth,”
Farley said in a statement, adding the new structure would help the China
operation be “more fit as a business, increase our decision-making speed and be
closer to our customers.”
More
You get
recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's
going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets.
Peter Lynch.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
In Saudi government murder
news, compare and contrast two Presidents. Turkish President Erdogan, decisive,
bold, making the case to hold the murderers and those who ordered it to
account. US President Trump, squirming, floundering, all but appeasing those
who ordered the murder and dismemberment, whinging about the embarrassing
position they’ve put him (and the west,) in. No freezing of Saudi assets then?
Erdogan Rejects Saudi Claims, Says Khashoggi Murder Was Planned
By Firat Kozok and Onur Ant
23 October 2018, 10:45 GMT+1 Updated
on 23 October 2018, 11:52 GMT+1
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rejected Riyadh’s account of the
killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at Saudi
Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul, saying the murder was the result of
a meticulously planned plot and calling on the Saudi king to hold all culprits
to account.“We have strong indications that this murder wasn’t the result of a sudden incident, but rather, was the product of a planned operation,” Erdogan told ruling AK Party lawmakers at a meeting at the parliament in Ankara. All responsible, including people “at the very top,” should be brought to justice and blaming the killing on “a few security and intelligence" officials will satisfy no one, he said.
The
president’s comments, while shedding little additional light on the unvarnished
details of the case, were his first official allegation of murder. Erdogan
refrained from implicating King Salman, saying he had no doubts about the
elderly royal’s sincerity and referring to him as the protector of Islam’s most
holy sites, a sign of respect. But he pointedly didn’t mention the power behind
the throne, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who’s been ruthlessly
consolidating power at home while crafting an image abroad as a modernizer and
reformer.
Erdogan scoffed at the initial Saudi denials that Khashoggi was killed,
and assailed the since-fired Saudi consul-general for trying to deflect
suspicion by inviting reporters to the consulate building, where he reportedly
opened closet doors to show that the journalist wasn’t there.
“A cover-up of a savagery like this would be an affront to humanity’s
conscience,” Erdogan said. He asked a number of pointed questions about the
incident, including why the Saudis took several days to open the consulate’s
doors to outsiders and the location of Khashoggi’s body, which has yet to be revealed.
“It shouldn’t even cross anyone’s mind that this matter will be closed without all of these questions being answered," he said.
Khashoggi went into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2 to get a certificate necessary for his marriage in Istanbul. MBS initially said the journalist left the building unharmed but that narrative gradually changed, culminating in an official admission of Khashoggi’s death in the hands of Saudi operatives more than two weeks later.
----One senior official in Erdogan’s government said Turkey has never believed the hype about the prince, also widely known as MBS. The Turks have also privately warned that Washington risks public embarrassment if it is seen under President Donald Trump to be attempting to help whitewash the circumstances around Khashoggi’s death.
That’s one reason why Erdogan may have been treading carefully in his
speech, said Sinan Ulgen of EDAM, the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy
Studies in Istanbul.
‘By not opening his cards, Erdogan is accumulating political capital
that could help him win Trump’s support,” he said.
More
Trump says Saudis staged 'worst cover-up ever' on Khashoggi; U.S. revokes visas of some Saudis
October 23, 2018 / 10:52 AM /
Updated an hour ago
WASHINGTON/ANKARA (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on
Tuesday Saudi authorities staged the “worst cover-up ever” in the killing of
prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi this month, as the United States vowed to
revoke the visas of some of those believed to be responsible.
Trump spoke hours after Turkey’s president, Tayyip Erdogan, dismissed
Saudi efforts to blame Khashoggi’s death on rogue operatives. Erdogan urged
Riyadh to search “from top to bottom” to uncover those behind Khashoggi’s death
in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2, an incident that has sparked
global outrage and strained relations between Riyadh and Washington.
For Saudi Arabia’s allies, the question will be whether they believe
that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has painted himself as a reformer,
has any culpability.
Trump said the killing and subsequent cover-up by Saudi Arabia were “a
total fiasco.”
“There should have never been an execution or a cover-up, because it
should have never happened,” Trump told reporters. He said he had spoken on
Monday with the crown prince who denied having anything to do with Khashoggi’s
killing.
Earlier, Trump said the Khashoggi matter was handled badly by Saudi
officials.
“Bad deal, should have never been thought of. Somebody really messed up.
And they had the worst cover-up ever,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
Khashoggi, a critic of the crown prince, was a U.S. resident and Washington
Post columnist.
Trump’s comments in recent days have ranged from threatening Saudi
Arabia with “very severe” consequences and mentioning possible economic
sanctions, to more conciliatory remarks highlighting the country’s role as a
U.S. ally against Iran and Islamist militants, as well as a major purchaser of
U.S. arms.
---- Pompeo also said the State Department was looking into whether sanctions could be applicable for those found to be involved.
“These penalties will not be the last word on this matter from the
United States,” Pompeo said, although he emphasized as have other senior U.S.
officials, the importance of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. “Neither the
president nor I are happy with this situation.”
---- Erdogan on Tuesday stopped short of mentioning the crown prince who some U.S. lawmakers suspect ordered the killing.
“The Saudi administration has taken an important step by admitting to
the murder. From now on, we expect them to uncover all those responsible for
this matter from top to bottom and make them face the necessary punishments,”
Erdogan said in a speech in parliament.
“From the person who gave the order, to the person who carried it out,
they must all be brought to account,” Turkey’s president said.
More
Turkish Outrage Over Khashoggi Hints at Changing World Order
By Marc Champion
Updated on 23 October 2018, 20:50 GMT+1
Three weeks after Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi disappeared
into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, it wasn’t the leader of the free world
who articulated international outrage at mounting evidence of his murder, but
the president of Turkey.
Any cover-up of the true authors of such a savage attack “would be an
affront to humanity’s conscience,” Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told
his parliamentary party on Tuesday. He demanded justice for Khashoggi’s family
and a full investigation.
The contrast with U.S. President Donald Trump’s more tepid response --
Trump said Erdogan had been “pretty rough on Saudi Arabia” -- underscores
changes in the post-Cold War order, as Washington’s global dominance declines
alongside its promotion of so-called values-based foreign policies. It’s also
illustrated by the brazen nature of the killing, carried out by officials of
one U.S. ally in the territory of another.
“That the U.S. has less of a role in defining outcomes all over the
world than in the 1990s is certainly true,” said Ambassador Charles Ries, a
career U.S. state department official who served in Iraq and Europe. “You can
see that in the rise of China and Russian aggression in Ukraine and its
interference in European politics.”
It’s visible to an extent in the Middle East, too, where the political
jostling over the Khashoggi affair raises the question of whether Saudi Arabia
could become the next geopolitical chip in the Middle East to slip from
America’s grasp.
More
“I love the Saudis. They buy apartments from me. They spend $40 million, $50 million. Am I supposed to dislike them? I like them very much.”
Donald J. Trump, 2015
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get
reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s
future from the 21st century onwards?
Samsung's graphene batteries could arrive in time for the Galaxy Note 10
Posted: 22 Oct 2018, 13:24
Last November, Samsung received a patent
for a graphene-based solution that could lead to batteries
that hold a whopping 45% more charge than current lithium-ion ones. Now, after
years of development, one industry insider is claiming that Samsung’s graphene
batteries are essentially done and could even make it into devices as early as
next year.
As mentioned above, one of the main benefits is their ability to hold more charge. However, these cells can also be charged around 5 times faster than current solutions. This means that, while a lithium-ion battery may take 1 hour to reach a certain level of charge, graphene alternatives could achieve the same level of charge in just 12 minutes. Moreover, it’s worth noting that, despite the faster charge rate, graphene batteries tend to deteriorate less.
Once production of graphene batteries begins to increase, graphene batteries may also prove to be cheaper than lithium-ion solutions, and are also set to be eco-friendlier. Lastly, and perhaps the best feature of all for companies such as Samsung, is their inability to explode. After all, this will avoid any Galaxy Note 7-like scenarios.
Right now, it’s unclear exactly when Samsung will begin using the new batteries inside its smartphones. However, it’s claimed that the Galaxy Note 10 is a prime candidate. If this is the case, both the battery life and the charging speed of Samsung’s 2019 flagship will likely exceed all previous results, even those of Huawei’s Mate 20 Pro which reaches a 70% charge in just 30 minutes.
Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything.
Benjamin
Graham.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September.
DJIA: 26,458 +199 Down. NASDAQ:
8,046 +261 Down. SP500: 2,914 +166 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and NASDAQ turned up in August. September will be critical for confirmation
of this change. All 3 slow indicators failed to confirm August’s positive
change making October very vulnerable to a sell-off.
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