Baltic Dry Index. 1519 +03 Brent Crude 77.47
"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."William F. Rickenbacker
With the month-end
approaching, normally we would expect a dress up the month-end bounce. But this
is far from a normal week. We are one week away from the US mid-term elections.
If the democrats win big, it becomes open season on a lame duck President
Trump.
More importantly, we
are one week away from President Trump’s all out economic war on Iran. Will it
all end in a new Persian Gulf shooting war? Will it trigger another oil price
spike, in turn triggering the next global recession? What will Turkey do, now
that they have the Saudis and President Trump trapped over a murderous barrel?
Add in new 25 percent
punitive tariffs on China due to take effect on Jan 1. A weakened coalition
government in Berlin following yesterday’s disaster at the polls in Hesse. An
Italian government ignoring Brussels edicts, going its own way on spending plans.
And a trade killing WTO Brexit, starting on March 29, 2019.
We are far from a
normal month-end week, far from a time to step out from the bunker.
"In the long run, the gold price has to go up in relation to paper money. There is no other way. To what price, that depends on the scale of the inflation - and we know that inflation will continue."
Nicholas L. Deak.
China growth woes curb Asian shares, U.S. equity futures turn down
October 28, 2018 / 11:56 PM /
Updated 24 minutes ago
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares barely managed to hold firm
on Monday after a tumultuous week for global equities, with U.S. stock futures
turning down and Chinese markets deep in the red on fresh signs of cooling in
the world’s second-biggest economy.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was last up
0.3 percent after rising just over 0.5 percent earlier in the day.
The losses in Asia were largely led by China’s blue-chip index which
tumbled 2.5 percent following disappointing earnings from the country’s top
liquor maker Kweichow Moutai.
Chinese data over the weekend also underscored worries of a cooling
economy as profit growth at its industrial firms slowed for the fifth consecutive
month in September as sales of raw materials and manufactured goods ebbed.
Citibank has projected China’s real economic growth to slow to 6.4
percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter “amid trade headwinds and domestic
uncertainties,” compared to a 6.8 percent rise at the start of the year.
“As lagging indicators, overall industrial revenue and profit should
continue to soften accordingly,” it said.
---- Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.1 percent, having climbed 1 percent earlier while South Korea’s KOSPI eased 0.4 percent. Shanghai’s SSE Composite faltered 1.5 percent.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 and Dow minis declined about 0.1
percent each, after rising as much as 0.4 percent earlier in the day.
More
Early Indicators Show China's Slowdown Worsened Again in October
Bloomberg News
China’s economic growth continued to slow in October, a period in which
the trade conflict with the U.S. has intensified and policy makers have stepped
up support for businesses.
That’s the signal from a Bloomberg Economics gauge aggregating the
earliest-available indicators on business conditions and market sentiment. The
government effort to stabilize the mood among executives and investors hasn’t
been effective yet.
What
happens to China’s economy in the fourth quarter of this year will be closely
watched, with attention on whether the government can keep the pace of growth
stable without a renewed surge of debt. While performance in the third quarter
ticked down, much of the effect of the trade war and slowdown is still to be
felt.
“The early indicators show that economic conditions continue to weaken both on the domestic and external fronts,” Bloomberg Chief Asia Economist Chang Shu said. “Economic sentiment is very poor, particularly among small private firms. We expect policy support for the economy to continue to broaden to all aspects of growth -- exports, consumption and investment.”
The government this month introduced a raft of measures to stabilize sentiment, including steps to boost liquidity in the financial system, new tax deductions for households and targeted measures aimed at helping exporters.
Top officials including President Xi Jinping also sought to bolster investor confidence, commenting on the fundamental strength of the economy and attempting to talk up the stock market, which has fallen almost eight percent this month.
U.S-China Breakdown
There was little sign of improvement in relations between China and the U.S. in October as officials from both countries traded barbs, and global companies braced for a protracted conflict.U.S. President Donald Trump would meet with Xi at the Group of 20 summit in late November, the president’s top economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters on October 23, adding that he didn’t expect a major breakthrough to result from the conversation.
The first official Chinese economic data for October, the purchasing managers indexes for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, will be released Wednesday morning in Beijing.
The manufacturing gauge will probably tick lower again while the non-manufacturing gauge, which covers the construction and service industries, is expected to be unchanged, according to forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg. The official manufacturing PMI reading slowed in September to a seven-month low.
More
Finally, we are now
less than a week away from Trump’s economic war on Iran. Does a Persian Gulf shooting
war come next?
Trump’s Iran sanctions resolve faces test from oil-thirsty China, India
October 29, 2018 / 5:03 AM / Updated 41
minutes ago
WASHINGTON/SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump announced in May he would
reimpose sanctions on Iran, the State Department began telling countries around
the world the clock was ticking for them to cut oil purchases from the Islamic
Republic to zero.
The strategy is meant to cripple Iran’s oil-dependent economy and force
Tehran to quash not only its nuclear ambitions, but this time, its ballistic
missile programme and its influence in Syria.
With just days to go before renewed sanctions take effect Nov. 5, the
reality is setting in: three of Iran’s top five customers – India, China, and
Turkey - are resisting Washington’s call to end purchases outright, arguing
there are not sufficient supplies worldwide to replace them, according to
sources familiar with the matter.
That pressure, along with worries of a damaging oil price spike, is
putting the Trump administration’s hard line to the test and raising the
possibility of bilateral deals to allow some buying to continue, according to
the sources.
The tension has split the administration into two camps, one led by
National Security Adviser John Bolton, who wants the toughest possible
approach, and another by State Department officials keen to balance sanctions
against preventing an oil price spike that could damage the U.S. and its
allies, according to a source briefed by administration officials on the
matter.
The global price of oil LCOc1 peaked just below $87 a barrel this month,
a four-year high. Because of that concern, the source said, the administration
is considering limited waivers for some Iranian customers until Russia and
Saudi Arabia add additional supply next year, while limiting what Tehran can do
with the proceeds in the meantime.
Revenues from sales could be escrowed for use by Tehran exclusively for
humanitarian purposes, the source, who asked not to be named, said – a
mechanism more stringent than a similar one imposed on Iran oil purchases
during the last round of sanctions under U.S. President Barack Obama.
“If you’re the administration, you’d like to ensure you don’t have a
spike in the price. So, you are better off from mid-2019 onwards to
aggressively enforce the barrels side of reducing to zero and in the interim
aggressively enforcing the revenue side,” the source said.
Such concessions could be problematic for the White House as it seeks
stricter terms than under Obama, who along with European allies imposed
sanctions that led to an agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear weapons development.
---- U.S. Treasury and State Department teams have travelled to more than two dozen countries since Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal on May 8, warning companies and countries of the dangers of doing business with Iran.
U.S. allies Japan and South Korea have already ceased importing Iran’s
crude. But the situation is less clear among other, bigger buyers.
Brian Hook, the State Department’s special representative for Iran, and
Frank Fannon, State’s top U.S. energy diplomat, most recently met with
officials in India, Iran’s No. 2 buyer, in mid-October after a U.S. source said
for the first time that the administration was actively considering waivers.
An Indian government source said India told the U.S. delegation
that rising energy costs caused by a weak rupee and high oil prices meant
zeroing out Iranian purchases was impossible until at least March.
More
"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."
F. A. von Hayek
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, news you won’t find on
the extreme left wing, BBC. Britain’s “next Prime Minister,” Comrade Corbyn, could
be placed on a US sanctions list!
21st
century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn Could Face U.S. Sanctions for Dealings with Hamas
U.K. leaders, concerned with Corbyn's ties, ask for legal review of Corbyn's Hamas ties
October 3, 2018 3:45 pm
Political leaders in Britain's Labour Party have been informed by legal
counsel that their party's leader, Jeremy Corbyn, could be hit with U.S.
sanctions for his multiple dealings with the terror group Hamas, according to a
copy of a U.K. legal review obtained by the Washington Free Beacon.Corbyn, who has long come under fire for his anti-Semitic and anti-Israel remarks, could be slapped with American sanctions for providing material support to Hamas, a designation that could result in the leader's financial assets being frozen, among other penalties, according to a legal brief commissioned by members of the Labour Party who are said to be concerned about Corbyn's radical ties.
The legal review, performed by W Legal, paints a compelling case against Corbyn, who has been open about his multiple meetings with Hamas and other prominent anti-Israel forces.
Since rising as Labour's leader, Corbyn has come under fierce criticism for his radical ties and history of making anti-Semitic remarks. The legal review is likely to provide further grist to Corbyn's opponents and possibly spark an investigation by U.S. officials overseeing sanctions policies in the Trump administration.
"In circumstances where grounds exist upon which Jeremy Corbyn may become subject to U.S. sanctions, many people may conclude that the Labour Party lacks credibility," Nigel Kushner, chief executive of W Legal, said in comments accompanying the firm's review, which has not before been publicly reported. "I anticipate a push in certain quarters on both sides of the pond for Jeremy Corbyn to be made the subject of U.S. sanctions. There is a view that enough is enough."
The four-page legal review builds a compelling case against Corbyn, alleging that his relationship with Hamas officials could be viewed as material support to the group, an offense subject to sanctions under U.S. laws.
"Hamas is listed on a U.S. sanctions list. Anyone deemed ‘otherwise associated' with someone on the list is themselves at risk of being put on that sanctions list," the review argues.
"In our view, the reported references made by Jeremy Corbyn concerning Hamas and Hamas persons and his dealings with them may be construed by the relevant U.S. authorities as tantamount to him being ‘otherwise associated' with Hamas and might thereby result in relevant U.S. authorities determining he should be designated," according to the legal memorandum.
U.S. authorities are likely to look at "the frequency with which Jeremy Corbyn has historically met and/or shared platforms with Hamas," lawyers claims.
Other evidence that could be reviewed includes Corbyn's multiple investigations to meet with Hamas and his references to them as "friends" and "brothers."
Corbyn has been open about his support for and associations with Hamas and officials tied to the group. He has shared the stage with top Hamas terrorists in the past and has attended events openly critical of Israel and Jews, according to multiple reports dating back as far as 2009.
This activity is punishable under U.S. law and could be used by the Trump administration to sanction Corbyn, the legal review maintains.
If hit with sanctions, Corbyn could have his assets in the United States blocked and be prevented from using U.S. banks to process transactions, according to the review. This could impact his finances in the U.K., where many banks rely on U.S. institutions to enable transactions.
"In practice, in our experience, many high street banks in the UK would be unwilling to process electronic payments to or from Jeremy Corbyn—even if permitted to do so," according to the review. "Such would place the bank at risk of becoming subject to a penalty if the payment involved a U.S. clearing or correspondent bank; and would place the bank at risk of itself being designated if it processed payments to or from Jeremy Corbyn—even if such did not involve a U.S. bank or U.S. person or an electronic payment in U.S. Dollars."
It is also possible "that most UK banks would consider going further and might refuse to process payments to and from the Labour Party itself whilst a designated person was leader," according to the memo.
The State Department would not comment on the review or the possibility of sanctions.
"Why did Comrade Agent
Corbyn stare at the bottle of orange juice for two hours?
Because the label said concentrate."
Czech StB report, with
apologies to Ken Dodd.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Today, food for thought, a food
mystery solved. I wonder if the maths nerds at MIT know you’re supposed to cook
it and eat it, not break it?
Mathematicians solve age-old spaghetti mystery
Date:
August 13, 2018
Source:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Summary:
It's nearly impossible to break a dry spaghetti noodle into only two pieces. A
new MIT study shows how and why it can be done.
If you happen to have a box of spaghetti in your pantry, try this
experiment: Pull out a single spaghetti stick and hold it at both ends. Now
bend it until it breaks. How many fragments did you make? If the answer is
three or more, pull out another stick and try again. Can you break the noodle
in two? If not, you're in very good company.
The spaghetti challenge has flummoxed even the likes of famed physicist
Richard Feynman '39, who once spent a good portion of an evening breaking pasta
and looking for a theoretical explanation for why the sticks refused to snap in
two.
Feynman's kitchen experiment remained unresolved until 2005, when
physicists from France pieced together a theory to describe the forces at work
when spaghetti -- and any long, thin rod -- is bent. They found that when a
stick is bent evenly from both ends, it will break near the center, where it is
most curved. This initial break triggers a "snap-back" effect and a
bending wave, or vibration, that further fractures the stick. Their theory,
which won the 2006 Ig Nobel Prize, seemed to solve Feynman's puzzle. But a
question remained: Could spaghetti ever be coerced to break in two?
The answer, according to a new MIT study, is yes -- with a twist. In a
paper published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences, researchers report that they have found a way to break spaghetti
in two, by both bending and twisting the dry noodles. They carried out
experiments with hundreds of spaghetti sticks, bending and twisting them with
an apparatus they built specifically for the task. The team found that if a
stick is twisted past a certain critical degree, then slowly bent in half, it
will, against all odds, break in two.
The researchers say the results may have applications beyond culinary
curiosities, such as enhancing the understanding of crack formation and how to
control fractures in other rod-like materials such as multifiber structures,
engineered nanotubes, or even microtubules in cells.
"It will be interesting to see whether and how twist could
similarly be used to control the fracture dynamics of two-dimensional and
three-dimensional materials," says co-author Jörn Dunkel, associate
professor of physical applied mathematics at MIT. "In any case, this has
been a fun interdisciplinary project started and carried out by two brilliant
and persistent students -- who probably don't want to see, break, or eat
spaghetti for a while."
More
"The
first requisite of a sound monetary system is that it put the least possible
power over the quantity or quality of money in the hands of the
politicians." Henry Hazlitt
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September.
DJIA: 26,458 +199 Down. NASDAQ:
8,046 +261 Down. SP500: 2,914 +166 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and NASDAQ turned up in August. September will be critical for confirmation
of this change. All 3 slow indicators failed to confirm August’s positive
change making October very vulnerable to a sell-off.
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