Baltic Dry Index. 1574 +04 Brent Crude 86.14
“It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
While the global economy
might not yet be flying on a wing and a prayer, rising interest rates and from
next month, the US enforced boycott of Iranian oil, suggest that where we’ll be
long before we reach Christmas. And it will all get worse again next year, says
JP Morgan Chase, when the Trump trade war against China steps up another gear.
To this old dinosaur market
watcher since 1968, my prediction, it all ends badly for practically everyone,
we now have too many balls in the air to juggle successfully, let alone for
long.
Stocks in Asia Fall, Treasury Yields Extend Surge: Markets Wrap
By Adam Haigh
Updated on 4 October 2018, 05:41 GMT+1
Asian equities and currencies sank as a spike in U.S. Treasury yields to levels unseen
since 2011 tests investors’ nerves.The climb in what’s effectively the world’s benchmark risk-free rate is challenging appetites for other assets. The S&P 500 Index pared its gains Wednesday afternoon, and futures fell Thursday as bond yields extended gains. Stocks slid from Seoul to Hong Kong, though Japanese shares outperformed thanks to the yen’s earlier drop to its weakest against the dollar since November. The South Korean won and Thai baht led Asian currency declines; India’s rupee is set to test another record low. While China’s markets are shut, the yuan slid past 6.9 per dollar in offshore trading.
Ten-year Japanese government
bond yields climbed past 0.15 percent, toward the upper end of the Bank of
Japan’s tolerance zone of plus or minus 0.2 percent. With the yen trading
weaker than 114 per dollar, there may be less of an incentive for the BOJ to
intervene with bond purchases as it has in the past.
Stocks in the U.S. came off their session highs as the sell-off in U.S.
government bonds deepened Wednesday in the wake of a stronger-than-expected
report on private-sector payrolls. The rise in yields may be a double-edged
sword -- it reflects an economy that’s experiencing historically low
unemployment and inflation rates broadly in line with the Fed’s target, while
it diminishes the relative appeal of dividend income from stocks.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank may eventually boost
its benchmark past the neutral level. U.S. payrolls data on Friday may stoke
expectations for rate hikes into 2019, with the jobless rate seen dropping to
3.8 percent, matching the lowest since 1969.
“This
withdrawal of liquidity and gradual tightening of monetary policy” is
reverberating across financial markets, Bob Baur, chief global economist at
Principal Global Investors, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in
Tokyo Thursday. “We look for 10-year Treasury yields to hit 3.5 at some point
-- later this year, early next year -- and I think that’s going to be a real
problem for stock markets.”
More
JPMorgan Cuts China Stocks on Risks of Full-Blown Trade War
By Ben Bartenstein
Updated on 4 October 2018, 02:14 GMT+1
The likelihood of a “full-blown trade war" next year between the
world’s two largest economies made JPMorgan Chase & Co. the latest
brokerage to drop its bullish call on Chinese stocks.
The trade conflict will only escalate as the U.S. maxes out tariffs on
Chinese imports, the dollar strengthens and the yuan weakens further, JPMorgan
strategists including Pedro Martins Junior, Rajiv Batra and Sanaya Tavaria
wrote in a report, lowering their recommendation on China to neutral from
overweight. With mainland markets shut all week for a holiday, the $4.9 billion
iShares China Large-Cap ETF dropped to a two-week low in New York.
JPMorgan’s
cautious turn on Chinese equities follows similar moves by Morgan Stanley, Nomura Holdings Inc. and Jefferies Group earlier this year.
While JPMorgan slashed its target and earnings estimates for the MSCI China
Index -- already down 24 percent from its peak in January -- the strategists
still expect the gauge to rebound to 85 points by the end of the year, or 8.9
percent from Wednesday’s close.
"A
full-blown trade war becomes our new base case scenario for 2019," the
strategists wrote in a note dated Wednesday. "There is no clear sign of
mitigating confrontation between China and the U.S. in the near term."
More
One month out from
the supposed end of access to Iranian oil, President Trump just
painted a big
target on the Saudi Arabian monarchy. The same monarchy America and the rest of
the world, need to pump more oil to replace Iran’s oil. An unwise and unhelpful
development to say the least, even if true.
Basically, America is
proposing that roughly 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports are boycotted,
to be made up by increased oil production and exports from Saudi Arabia, and of
all places, bad boy Putin’s Russia.
In turn they seem to
have indicated an ability combined to replace about 500,000 bpd. Well maybe, maybe not. A whole lot will depend on everyone
else’s oil production holding up, including, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela,
plus getting a whole lot more oil out of America.
If the US global
boycott works as intended, from November the global oil market will be flying
on a wing and a prayer, and with it the global economy. While that might work
for a while, I suspect it won’t work for long.
Probably the best
hope is that higher interest rates, higher oil prices and Trump’s friend and
foe alike trade wars, cool off the global economy, reducing global energy
demand.
Trump Says Saudi King Wouldn't Last Two Weeks Without U.S. Help
By Lin Noueihed
3 October 2018, 09:41 GMT+1
President Donald Trump said the king of Saudi
Arabia may not last two weeks without U.S. support, escalating
pressure on one of his closest Arab allies to curb rising oil prices and pay
for military protection.“How about our military deals where we protect rich nations that we don’t get reimbursed?” Trump told a campaign rally in the U.S. state of Mississippi on Tuesday night. “I love the king, King Salman, but I said, ‘King, we’re protecting you. You might not be there for two weeks without us. You have to pay for your military, you have to pay.’"
As oil prices have risen above $80 a barrel, Trump has heaped more pressure on the world’s top exporter of crude to do more to subdue the market and reimburse the costs of American military presence in the region. While the kingdom’s ties with the U.S. have improved under Trump, Tuesday’s remarks were unusually harsh and appeared to question the stability of a monarchy in power since the 1930s.
Trump did not elaborate further on the conversation but appeared to be referring to a telephone call he had on Saturday with King Salman bin Abdulaziz.
Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV reported that the pair discussed efforts to maintain supplies to ensure the stability of the oil market and the growth of the global economy. The White House said Trump and the king spoke on “issues of regional concern.”
The call grabbed the attention of oil traders and hedge funds, who are watching closely for any signs that the U.S. might take action against Saudi Arabia or other members of OPEC after Trump used his address at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Sept. 25 to hammer home those views.
Since winning the White House, Trump has shaken the foundations of America’s post-World War II alliances, questioning the importance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, pulling out of a nuclear accord with Iran that European powers helped negotiate and saying in the midst of a trade war that the European Union was a “foe”.
Saudi Arabia has long been a major buyer of U.S. weaponry, spending billions of dollars on advanced systems, a point Trump was keen to make when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman visited the White House in March. Some of those deals have come with significant discounts, however, prompting public scrutiny.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/trump-says-saudi-king-wouldn-t-last-two-weeks-without-u-s-help
Exclusive: Saudi Arabia, Russia agreed in Sept to lift oil output, told U.S.
October 3, 2018 / 10:50 AM
MOSCOW/DUBAI (Reuters) - Russia and Saudi Arabia struck a private deal in
September to raise oil output to cool rising prices and informed the United
States before a meeting in Algiers with other producers, four sources familiar
with the plan said.
U.S. President Donald Trump has blamed the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) for high crude prices and called on it to boost
output to bring down fuel costs before the U.S. congressional elections on Nov.
6.
The deal underlines how Russia and Saudi Arabia are increasingly
deciding oil output policies bilaterally, before consulting with the rest of
OPEC.
The sources said Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih and his Russian
counterpart Alexander Novak agreed during a series of meetings to lift output
from September through December as crude headed towards $80 a barrel. It is now
over $85.
“The Russians and the Saudis agreed to add barrels to the market quietly
with a view not to look like they are acting on Trump’s order to pump more,”
one source said.
“The Saudi minister told (U.S. Energy Secretary Rick) Perry that Saudi
Arabia will raise output if its customers asked for more oil,” another source
said.
Originally, the two countries had hoped to announce an overall increase
of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Saudi-led OPEC and non-OPEC Russia at a
gathering of oil ministers in Algiers at the end of September.
But with opposition from some in OPEC, including Iran which is subject to U.S. sanctions, they decided to defer any formal decision until a full OPEC meeting in December.
Since then, Reuters has reported that Riyadh planned to lift output by some 200,000 bpd to 300,000 bpd from September to help fill the gap left by lower Iranian output due to the sanctions.
Russian output rose 150,000 bpd in September.
“I would expect Russia’s oil production will hover at around 11.4 to
11.6 million bpd until the end of 2018 and may increase further to 11.8 million
bpd later on in 2019,” a source at a major Russian oil company said.
Russian produced 11.36 million bpd in September, up from 11.21 million
bpd in August, Energy Ministry data showed.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/us-russia-saudi-oil-exclusive/exclusive-saudi-arabia-russia-agreed-in-sept-to-lift-oil-output-told-u-s-idUKKCN1MD0Y8
Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
We are one month away from new US sanctions kicking
in on those still trading oil and other goods wit Iran. Below, Iran scores a
meaningless victory in the UN’s highest court.
Iran puts its faith in a yet to be cobbled together,
European Union Special Purpose Vehicle, intended to shield those companies
still willing to risk trading with Iran. My guess is that it will fail, at
least initially, undermined by many Europeans willing to work with the
Americans. Undermined by America’s NSA and the rest of the Five Eyes.
Undermined by little need to trade with an emerging market of 80 million,
compared to a rich developed nation of approaching 350 million.
All treaties between great
states cease to be binding when they come in conflict with the struggle for
existence.
Count Otto von Bismarck
World Court orders U.S. to ensure Iran sanctions don't hit humanitarian aid
October 3, 2018 / 8:48 AM
THE
HAGUE (Reuters) - The World Court ordered the United States on Wednesday to
ensure that sanctions against Iran, due to be tightened next month, do not
affect humanitarian aid or civil aviation safety.
Judges
at the International Court Of Justice handed a victory to Tehran, which had
argued that sanctions imposed since May by the administration of U.S. President
Donald Trump violate the terms of a 1955 Treaty of Amity between the two
countries.
The ruling is likely to have at most limited practical impact on the
implementation of sanctions, which Washington is reimposing and tightening
after pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal that Iran signed with world powers.
The court order issued on Wednesday is temporary pending a resolution of
Iran’s full lawsuit against Washington by the ICJ, something that could take
years.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement “the decision proved once
again that the Islamic Republic is right and the U.S. sanctions against people
and citizens of our country are illegal and cruel.
“The United States must comply with its international commitments and
lift obstacles to Iranian trade,” it added.
The ICJ is the United Nations’ highest court for resolving disputes
between nations. Its rulings are binding, but it has no power to enforce them,
and both the United States and Iran have ignored them in the past.
The court said assurances offered by Washington to ensure sanctions do
not affect humanitarian conditions were “not adequate”.
“The court considers that the United States must...remove by means of its choosing any impediment arising from the measures announced on 8 May 2018,” said Presiding Judge Abdulqawi Yusuf, reading a summary of a ruling by the 15-member panel of justices.
The sanctions may not hurt “exportation to the territory of Iran of goods required for humanitarian needs such as medicines, medical devices and foodstuffs and agricultural commodities as well as goods and services required for the safety of civil aviation,” he said.
While
U.S. sanctions “in principle” exempt food and medical supplies, the court said
“it has become difficult if not impossible for Iran, Iranian nationals and
companies to engage in international financial transactions” to purchase such
goods.
More
Iran praises Europe for taking 'big step' to keep business with Tehran
October 3, 2018 / 11:40 AM
LONDON
(Reuters) - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani praised Europe on Wednesday for
taking a “big step” toward maintaining business with Iran after the unilateral
U.S. withdrawal from a 2015 nuclear deal and re-imposition of new sanctions on
the Islamic Republic.
Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also told the BBC on Wednesday that support from
Europe to preserve economic ties with the Islamic Republic in the face of U.S.
pressure was “better than expected”.
In
May, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement
with world powers which aims at stalling Tehran’s nuclear capabilities in
return for lifting some sanctions, and ordered the reimposition of U.S.
sanctions suspended under the deal.
European powers have been scrambling to salvage the accord. The European
Union announced last week a so-called Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) under
consideration to facilitate trade with Iran could be in place before November.
“To maintain financial and monetary relations in Iran, Europe has formed
a special body... Europe has taken a big step,” Rouhani was quoted as saying by
Tasnim news agency.
Rouhani, a pragmatist who engineered the nuclear accord and a
short-lived period of detente between Tehran and Washington, said the Trump
administration was “extremely angry” with Europe’s decision.
European diplomats have described the SPV proposal as a means to create
a barter system, similar to one used by the Soviet Union during the Cold War,
to exchange Iranian oil for European goods without money changing hands.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi said on Monday that the
EU’s proposed mechanism to pay Tehran the revenues from oil sales was not “an
oil for food programme”.
The U.N. Security Council started the Oil-for-Food Programme in 1996 to
allow Iraq to sell enough crude to pay for food and other necessities for its
population, which was suffering under strict U.N. sanctions imposed after the
first Gulf War.
Whoever speaks of Europe is
wrong: it is a geographical expression.
Count Otto von Bismarck
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Skeleton enters agreement with Wrights Group to install graphene-based supercapacitors on buses
Skeleton Technologies and British bus manufacturer Wrights Group have announced the signing of a high-volume, multi-million-euro contract for the next 5 years. Skeleton Technologies will supply graphene-based supercapacitors to the latest KERS enabled hybrid-electric double and single deck buses produced by the Wrights Group.The demand to reduce CO2 emissions in city centers is one of the key drivers for WrightBus to implement new technology which cuts such emissions by saving fuel. The integration of graphene-based supercapacitors into test WrightBus double deck buses reportedly enables a 36% fuel saving compared to a UK-based EuroVI diesel bus baseline. It also adds at least another 3 passengers to the capacity of these buses compared to a lithium battery-based hybrid equivalent.
With Skeleton Technologies’ supercapacitors, Wrightbus operators will also be cutting down on maintenance costs; While the lithium battery may last around 4 to 5 years, during their 1 million cycles, the supercapacitors will reportedly last for at least 7.5 years, with an estimated life of 12 to 15 years.
Mr. Taavi Madiberk, CEO of Skeleton Technologies commented: “Ultracapacitors have been integrated into buses before but the energy and power densities of our ultracapacitors have been key in the selection process. We are excited to be part of the CO2 reduction drive in cities onboard with Wrightbus.”
https://www.graphene-info.com/skeleton-enters-agreement-wrights-group-install-graphene-based-supercapacitors-buses
Graphene Supercapacitors: Introduction and News
Graphene is a thin layer of pure carbon, tightly packed and bonded together in a hexagonal honeycomb lattice. It is widely regarded as a “wonder material” because it is endowed with an abundance of astonishing traits: it is the thinnest compound known to man at one atom thick, as well as the best known conductor. It also has amazing strength and light absorption traits and is even considered ecologically friendly and sustainable as carbon is widespread in nature and part of the human body.Graphene is often suggested as a replacement for activated carbon in supercapacitors, in part due to its high relative surface area (which is even more substantial than that of activated carbon). The surface area is one of the limitations of capacitance and a higher surface area means a better electrostatic charge storage. In addition, graphene based supercapacitors will utilize its lightweight nature, elastic properties and mechanical strength.
Graphene-based supercapacitors are said to store almost as much energy as lithium-ion batteries, charge and discharge in seconds and maintain all this over tens of thousands of charging cycles. One of the ways to achieve this is by using a a highly porous form of graphene with a large internal surface area (made by packing graphene powder into a coin-shaped cell and then dry and press it).
What are supercapacitors?
Supercapacitors, also known as EDLC (electric double-layer capacitor) or Ultracapacitors, differ from regular capacitors in that they can store tremendous amounts of energy.A basic capacitor usually consists of two metal plates, separated by an insulator (like air or a plastic film). During charging, electrons accumulate on one conductor and depart from the other. One side gains a negative charge while the other side builds a positive one. The insulator disturbs the natural pull of the negative charge towards the positive one, and that tension creates an electric field. Once electrons are given a path to the other side, discharge occurs.
Supercapacitors also contain two metal plates, only coated with a porous material known as activated carbon. They are immersed in an electrolyte made of positive and negative ions dissolved in a solvent. One plate is positive and the other is negative. During charging, ions from the electrolyte accumulate on the surface of each carbon-coated plate. Supercapacitors also store energy in an electric field that is formed between two oppositely charged particles, only they have the electrolyte in which an equal number of positive and negative ions is uniformly dispersed. Thus, during charging, each electrode ends up having two layers of charge coating (electric double-layer).
More
Never believe anything in
politics until it has been officially denied.
Count Otto von Bismarck
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September.
DJIA: 26,458 +199 Down. NASDAQ:
8,046 +261 Down. SP500: 2,914 +166 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March, but the S&P and NASDAQ turned up in August. September will be critical for confirmation
of this change. All 3 slow indicators failed to confirm August’s positive
change making October very vulnerable to a sell off.
No comments:
Post a Comment