Baltic Dry Index. 1432 +48 Brent Crude 76.67
John Kenneth Galbraith.
The big story of the
week, President Trump renegs on a US freely signed international treaty with
Iran, that all agree, including President Trump, that Iran was in full
compliance with. If international treaties are now discretional, how long
before others start reneging on treaties in whole or part? A terrible precedent has just been set for the
21st century.
For now, Iran is to
explore with the EU, Russia and China, if they alone can make the international
treaty still work, but with Trump’s US Treasury threatening new sanctions
against firms still trading with Iran after 90 or 180 days, including US NATO
allies, it’s unlikely that the EU, Russia and China, can make the treaty still
work for Iran.
Below, how the rule
of international law just got trumped by Trump’s Might Makes Right, America
First, New Deal. How long before China
First, Russia First, Parts of Europe First, though not GB, takes hold? Not very
long, I’ll bet.
May 8, 2018 / 6:04 AM
Trump ignores European pleas and abandons 'defective' Iran nuclear deal
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Tuesday pulled the United States out of
an international nuclear deal with Iran, raising the risk of conflict in the
Middle East, upsetting European allies and casting uncertainty over global oil
supplies.
Trump said in a televised address from the White House that he would
reimpose U.S. economic sanctions on Iran to undermine
“a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made.”
The 2015 agreement, worked out by the United States, five other world
powers and Iran, lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran limiting its
nuclear programme. The pact was designed to prevent Iran from obtaining a
nuclear bomb.
But Trump complained that the accord, the signature foreign policy
achievement of his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, did not address Iran’s
ballistic missile programme, its nuclear activities beyond 2025 or its role in
conflicts in Yemen and Syria.
Trump’s decision intensifies the strain on the trans-Atlantic alliance
since he took office 16 months ago. One by one, European leaders came to
Washington and tried to meet his demands, while pleading with him to preserve
the deal.
By the middle of last week, however, it was becoming increasingly clear
to some diplomats that Trump would not be moved. “We felt like we were going
through the motions,” said a person close to the negotiations.
Even Trump’s top aides had not been seeking aggressively to talk Trump
out of withdrawing because his mind had been made up, a White House official
said.
The Trump administration kept the door open to negotiating another deal
with allies, but it is far from clear if the Europeans would go for that and if
they could convince Iran to accept it.
The leaders of Britain, Germany and France, which were signatories to
the deal along with China and Russia, said in a joint statement that Trump’s
decision was a cause for “regret and concern.”
A Western diplomat was more pointed.
“It announces sanctions for which the first victims will be Trump’s
European allies,” the diplomat said, adding that it was clear Trump did not
care about the alliance.
Abandoning
the Iran pact was one of the most consequential decisions of Trump’s
high-stakes “America First” policy, which has led him to withdraw the United
States from the Paris climate accord, come close to a trade war with China and
pull out of an Asian-Pacific trade deal.
More
May 8, 2018 / 7:14 PM
Syrian state media says Israel attacked just after U.S. quit Iran deal
JERUSALEM/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian state media accused Israel of
launching missiles at a target near Damascus on Tuesday, shortly after U.S.
President Donald Trump announced he was quitting the Iranian nuclear deal, a
move that had prompted Israel to go on high alert.
The Israeli military said that, upon identifying “irregular activity” by
Iranian forces in Syria, it instructed civic authorities on the Golan Heights
to ready bomb shelters, deployed new defences and mobilised some reservist
forces.
Israel’s top general, Gadi Eizenkott, cancelled a scheduled appearance
at an annual security conference and was conferring with Defence Minister
Avigdor Lieberman and other national security chiefs, officials said.
Trump’s hard tack against the nuclear deal, while welcomed by Israel,
has stirred fears of a possible regional flare-up.
Within two hours of the White House announcement, Syrian state news
agency SANA reported explosions in Kisweh, south of Damascus. Syrian air
defences fired at two Israeli missiles, destroying both, SANA said.
A commander in the regional alliance supporting Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad told Reuters that Israel’s air force had struck an army base at Kisweh
without causing casualties.
Asked about those statements, an Israeli military spokeswoman said: “We do
not respond to such foreign reports.”
More
Boeing will lose out on $20 billion in Iran deals as Airbus, GE impacted
Published: May 8, 2018 9:11 p.m. ET
Boeing Co., the world’s largest aerospace concern, stands to lose roughly
$20 billion in business with Iran after the U.S.’s controversial withdrawal
Tuesday from the 2015 nuclear agreement with the Middle East nation.Boeing has agreements to sell 110 planes worth roughly $20 billion to Iranian airlines, based on list prices. The U.S. withdrawal, which pledges punishment for banks and businesses doing transactions in Iran, stretches to Boeing’s French rival Airbus SE AIR, -0.18% , which had a multibillion-dollar sale planned, and to parts maker General Electric Co. GE, +1.42%
Licenses for Boeing BA, -0.61% and Airbus to sell passenger jets to Iran will be revoked, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said after President Trump made his announcement to pull the U.S. out of what he considers a “defective” Iranian nuclear deal, defying allies and despite warnings that it could ratchet up tensions in the volatile region.
While new contracts are banned, companies and banks will have 90 days or 180 days to wind down their ties before risking penalties, the administration said. It did not expand on what those penalties might entail.
IranAir had ordered 200 passenger aircraft: 100 from Airbus, 80 from Boeing and 20 from Franco-Italian turboprop maker ATR. All the deals are dependent on U.S. licenses because of the primary use of American parts in commercial planes.
Boeing hasn’t delivered any of the jets to Iran or logged them in its order book. Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg said last month that any deliveries had been deferred beyond 2018 and sales to Iran weren’t included in its production plans.
More
Finally, as always in
the past, does might still make right? Of course it does. Besides, supposing someone
cheats and doesn’t get rid of their nukes?
Trump decision on Iran nuclear treaty shows fragility of global nonproliferation efforts
Published: May 8, 2018 3:20 p.m. ET
CANBERRA, Australia (Project Syndicate) — This is crunch time for the global nuclear order. President Donald Trump announced
his decision today to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose
sanctions. Only a few weeks later, he is expected to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for a summit that will
have implications for that country’s nuclear program.With Trump surrounded by hawkish advisers — like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton — the odds are good that efforts to denuclearize will suffer setbacks before the month is out. For this reason, it is more important than ever that the international community upholds existing treaty obligations, starting with the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
But to do that, tough conversations must be had.
Multilateral agreements are always prone to gaps in application; the international nonproliferation regime is no different. For example, while neither Israel nor India have signed the NPT, both states are considered responsible members of the nuclear-weapons club. Israel has never been sanctioned for its bomb, and India has a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, as well as several civil nuclear agreements with the United States, Australia, Canada, and Japan.
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are tolerated but not accepted; North Korea’s de facto nuclearization is considered intolerable; and Iran’s nuclear program was curbed before a weapon could be developed.
Amid this imperfect framework, many countries have become frustrated by the refusal of NPT signatories to discuss their own disarmament. Article VI of the NPT obliges parties to pursue “in good faith” negotiations to disarm, but the nuclear-weapons states that have ratified the treaty do not interpret this as a prohibition on their possessing a nuclear arsenal. Rather, buoyed by the doctrine of deterrence, they argue that reductions would weaken global security.
Perhaps not surprisingly, non-nuclear-weapon states see things differently. And, last year, they committed their views to a supplementary treaty at the United Nations. Today, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) has been signed by 58 countries and ratified by eight, and if it ever comes into force will ban the use, threat of use, or possession of nuclear arms.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-decision-on-iran-nuclear-treaty-shows-fragility-of-global-nonproliferation-efforts-2018-05-08
Could withdrawing from the Iran deal bring down Trump?
Published: May 8, 2018 3:13 p.m. ET
Economic expansions end when something gets out of whack — a technology
stock bull market gone too far here, a housing bubble there. As
President Donald Trump pulls America out of the seven-nation deal to keep
Iran from developing nuclear weapons, it’s worth asking whether this move will
be the one that finally ends the second-longest recovery in U.S. history.The question is whether oil markets will react to the move by pushing prices still higher — and we know the answer, because they already have. Crude oil LCON8, +2.43% ` has risen $30 a barrel to about $75 a barrel just since last June.
It’s hard to overstate how much this matters. The falling cost of gasoline and stable-to-dipping electricity expenses were a big reason that middle-class Americans made up the inflation-adjusted income they lost during the 2008 recession and its aftermath.
In 2014 and 2015, workers were getting about the same hourly pay raises they are now. But annual inflation, which is 2.4% for the last 12 months including oil, was much lower (sometimes even negative) then. That’s how median-income families recouped the 10% drop in their household income from 2008 to 2011, and why real income growth has stagnated lately.
Ever since 2014, I’ve had a stock answer when oil prices rise: Whenever they reach $50 a barrel, it can’t last, because new supplies from U.S.-based frackers (who need higher prices to make money) will enter the market, which consumes about 100 million barrels of crude each day.
But that may not be true any more, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs, or at least it may take a long time for that pattern to assert itself. Goldman thinks oil will top $80 by July, (other analysts guess that an Iran-deal pullback may add $10 a barrel) and says it could take as long as 20 months for the price to come back down toward its longer-term stable levels around $60.
And it may even take a recession.
“There is no precedent of supply from OPEC or any other producer
overtaking demand this late in the business cycle to replenish inventories
before a recession occurs,” Goldman strategist Jeffrey Currie wrote May 1.
“Once current long-cycle investment bottlenecks are resolved, we will likely
return to a $60 per barrel long-term environment. It just may take longer than
the 20 months we currently forecast to get there. History, however, suggests it
will be a recession, potentially aided by the inflationary pressures created by
commodity prices.”
Morehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/could-withdrawing-from-the-iran-deal-bring-down-trump-2018-05-08
“It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."
John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
In Great Global Trump Trade War news, China opts to see if negotiating
in Washington DC will make any difference. But with Trump reneging on NAFTA and
the nuclear deal with Iran, is there any point in making a deal with
Washington?
Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He to go to Washington to continue talks to avert a trade war
The White House says the Chinese vice-premier will arrive next week ‘to continue the discussions with the president’s economic team’
PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 08 May, 2018, 5:39am UPDATED : Tuesday,
08 May, 2018, 2:39pm
China’s Vice-Premier Liu He will visit the US capital “to
continue the discussions with the president’s economic team”, White House press
secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said.
Word of the visit by Liu, China’s top economic adviser,
came three days after a US delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin left
Beijing after two days of talks that produced no apparent consensus, leaving
open the possibility that punitive tariffs on US$50 billion worth of imports
from China would take effect in the coming weeks.
In last week’s talks, the United States demanded that
China cut the trade deficit the US faced by at least US$200 billion by the end
of 2020. The US said its trade deficit with China was US$375.2 billion last
year.
Additionally, the US called on China to halt state
subsidies for industries under its “Made in China 2025” plan.
In the meantime, China’s trade surplus with the US continues to expand,
growing by US$6.76 billion – or nearly 44 per cent month on month – to US$28.78
billion in April, according to Chinese customs data released on Tuesday.
The surplus with the US was US$22.19 billion in April, up from US$15.43
billion in March.
In the first four months of this year, the surplus with the US amounted
to US$80.4 billion. The figure for the same time last year was US$70.9 billion,
according to calculations based on official data.
China’s overall trade surplus was US$28.78 billion in April, a stronger
rebound than expected after a surprise US$4.9 billion deficit in March.
In US dollar terms, China’s exports grew 12.9 per cent last month,
compared with the same time last year. At the same time, imports rose 21.5 per
cent year on year, faster than the 14.4 per cent increase in March and 16 per
cent growth forecast.
Analysts said the opening round of talks in Beijing last week served
only to communicate each side’s position.
The
Chinese government released a brief statement wrapping up the trade talks on
Friday, calling the negotiations “candid and efficient”. A statement from the
White House described the discussions as “frank”.
----Reactions to last week’s meeting in China’s state
media had suggested Beijing was open to continuing talks.
A commentary in the ruling Communist Party mouthpiece People’s
Daily on Saturday described the talks by saying the “clouds are starting to
part and the fog begins to disperse” after more than a month of “wind and
rain”.
More
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.J. K. Galbraith.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Wrap an electrode material for Li-ion battery into the inner spacing of carbon nanotube
Electrochemical characterization of a high capacitive electrode for lithium ion batteries using phosphorus-encapsulated carbon nanotubes
Date:
May 7, 2018
Source:
Toyohashi University of Technology
Summary:
Researchers have designed a unique lithium ion battery (LIB) electrode, where
red phosphorus is stuffed into carbon nanotubes (CNTs). They revealed
reversible electrochemical reactions and relatively high structural stability
of red phosphorus in the nanotubes even after the fiftieth charge-discharge
cycle. The charge-discharge capacities are twice or even higher than that of
graphite in commercial LIBs. Therefore, a new electrode material for LIBs with
high capacity is proposed
Researchers at the Toyohashi University of Technology have demonstrated
the electrochemical performance of lithium ion batteries (LIBs) using
phosphorus-encapsulated carbon nanotube electrodes, in which red phosphorus
with considerable high capacity is introduced into the inner spacing of carbon
nanotubes (CNTs) with a tubular structure. The electrodes indicated an
improvement in the electrochemical reactivity of red phosphorus when accessible
pathways of lithium ions, i.e., nanopores, were formed onto the sidewalls of
the CNTs where the red phosphorus was encapsulated. Furthermore, the
charge-discharge profiles and structural analysis revealed reversible
electrochemical reactions and the relatively high structural stability of red
phosphorus in the nanotubes even after the fiftieth charge-discharge cycle. The
charge-discharge capacities show a value two times or higher than that of
graphite used in commercial LIBs. Therefore, a new electrode material for LIBs
with high capacity is proposed.
Red phosphorus has attracted attention as a higher capacitive electrode
material for LIBs because it can deliver a theoretical capacity approximately
seven times higher than that of graphite used as a commercial electrode
material for LIBs. The large difference in the capacity is thought to be due to
an acceptable amount of lithium ions in the structures of graphite for LiC6 or
phosphorus for Li3P. However, red phosphorus suffers enormous volumetric
changes, pulverization, and peeling off during lithium ion insertion and extraction
processes, resulting in rapid capacity fading due to the decrement in the
amount of electrochemically reactive red phosphorus. Additionally, while
electrons move onto the electrode during lithium ion insertion/extraction, red
phosphorus has a disadvantage in terms of energy loss because of its low
electronic conductivity.
----We
have proposed phosphorus-encapsulated CNTs as an electrode material for LIBs
with high capacity, even though additional improvements in the structures are
required to achieve long-term cycling without capacity fading. Further studies
will be performed on the utilization of such electrodes.
If all
else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.
John Kenneth
Galbraith.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April.
DJIA: 24,163 +255 Down. NASDAQ:
7,066 +282 Down. SP500: 2,648 +188 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and continued down in April. For some
a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal.
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