Thursday, 31 May 2018

Italy Sorted, Trade War Time. Resurrection Day.


Baltic Dry Index. 1042 -15    Brent Crude 77.31


Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, president of the European Commission. Scotch connoisseur.


Miraculously Italy was “sorted” yesterday as the official story became “crisis? what crisis?” Politics in Italy is ever in turmoil, Italy’s economy is underpinned by its black economy, and anyway while the ECB is still willing to buy Italy’s (now higher yielding,) bonds, there won’t be any Italian bank bond contagion. Italy, forget about it!

Besides, the panic over, Italy caused capital flight into US Treasuries lowering yields, so the Fedsters might get to hold off raising interest rates for a whole lot longer. Italy saved from itself, everyone else got back to the serious job of dressing up markets for today’s all-important month-end close. Ignore the BDI and oil.

Below, yesterday’s “don’t worry be happy, Italy’s unimportant” fake news. My take, Italy’s problems will grow all summer long, and Italy’s miracle will last just as long as it takes to dress up today’s stock market close.

May 31, 2018 / 1:44 AM

Asian stocks rebound, euro pulls off lows as anxiety over Italy recedes

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks rebounded from a two-month trough on Thursday and the euro enjoyed a respite after sinking to its lowest in 10 months as the political turmoil in Italy that roiled global financial markets showed signs of easing.

Spreadbetters expected European stocks to open slightly higher, with Britain's FTSE .FTSE edging up 0.05 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI adding 0.1 percent and France's CAC .FCHI rising 0.05 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI rose 0.75 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC gained 1.4 percent after news that growth in China's vast manufacturing sector accelerated strongly and well above forecasts in May to an eight-month high.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS gained 0.6 percent after slumping on Wednesday to its weakest since early April.

South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 added 0.5 percent and Japan's Nikkei .N225 advanced 0.8 percent.
Overnight, the Dow .DJI rose 1.25 percent and the S&P 500 .SPX climbed 1.27 percent.

Global stocks were battered, safe-haven government prices rose sharply, and the euro tumbled earlier in the week after Italy’s two anti-establishment parties scrapped plans to form a coalition.

That raised the prospect of a new general election, stoking fears such a vote would effectively be a referendum on Italy’s euro membership.

A degree of calm, however, returned with the two anti-establishment parties renewing efforts to form a coalition government rather than force Italy into holding elections for the second time this year.

“Experience shows that these ‘crises’ tend to settle down for long periods once the initial adjustment of market expectations has been effected,” Carl Weinberg, chief international economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

A successful auction of five- and 10-year government bonds also assuaged concerns about Italy’s ability to finance itself after the turbulence in its debt market sparked the biggest one-day spike in two-year bond yields in 26 years. Bond yields rise as prices fall.
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It was miracle time in Kiev too, or more accurately “resurrection time,” as yet another Russian murder went disastrously wrong, ala Salisbury England. You have to wonder who is scripting this western campaign against Russia and why?

Below, Radio Free Europe, America’s propaganda version of Russia’s RT, puts out its spin. Still who wants the Ukraine in NATO faking an incident Hitler v Poland style, triggering nuclear war with Russia?

Ukraine Says It Faked Journalist's Death To Thwart Russian Plot

Last Updated: May 30, 2018 16:50 GMT
KYIV -- Ukrainian security officials said they faked the death of a dissident Russian journalist in an effort to catch people it says were involved in a Russian plot to kill him.

Vasyl Hrytsak, the head of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), shocked reporters at the SBU headquarters in Kyiv on May 30 when he announced that journalist and Kremlin critic Arkady Babchenko was still alive, a day after Ukrainian authorities announced he had been killed by a gunman outside of his Kyiv apartment.

Hrytsak told reporters that Ukrainian intelligence sources learned that Russia's security services had ordered the killing of Babchenko several months earlier.

Hrytsak also said a suspected organizer of an attempted murder plot against Babchenko, identified as a Ukrainian national, was detained as a result of a "special operation" by the SBU.

"We have prevented an attempted murder of Babchenko by carrying out a special operation," Hrytsak said on May 30. "Thanks to this operation, we were able to foil a cynical plot and document how the Russian security service was planning for this crime."

Babchenko made a dramatic appearance at the live May 30 television briefing after Hrytsak's announcement, saying the fictitious reports of his death were part of an SBU operation that had been prepared for two months.
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Now back to real news and the Great Global Trump Trade War on the Rest of the World, due to start shortly after we dress up today’s close of the world’s stock markets. European bourbon drinkers, stock up now.

"We can also do stupid."

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. European Commission President. Scotch connoisseur.

May 30, 2018 / 10:36 PM

U.S. to slap tariffs soon on steel, aluminium from EU - sources

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States will announce plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium from the European Union as early as Thursday morning, two people briefed on the matter said, confirming a report in the Wall Street Journal.

The decision would land ahead of a Friday expiration deadline for exemptions to the planned metals tariffs amid stalled trade talks with the EU and would likely prompt retaliation from the bloc.

The two sources said an announcement was planned for Thursday morning in Washington but that the timing could still change.

The U.S. Commerce Department and U.S. Trade Representative’s Office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

President Donald Trump on March 23 imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminium, but granted temporary exemptions to the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia and Argentina.

Trump invoked a 1962 trade law to erect protections for U.S. steel and aluminium producers on national security grounds, amid a worldwide glut of both metals that is largely blamed on excess production in China.

The European Commission, which coordinates trade policy for the 28 EU members, has said the bloc should be permanently exempted from the tariffs since it was not the cause of overcapacity in steel and aluminium.

The Commission has said the EU will set duties on 2.8 billion euros (2.5 billion pounds) of U.S. exports, including peanut butter and denim jeans, if its metals exports to the United States worth 6.4 billion euros are subject to tariffs.
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May 29, 2018 / 1:27 PM

China vows to protect its interests from 'reckless' U.S. trade threats

BEIJING (Reuters) - China lashed out on Wednesday at renewed threats from the White House on trade, warning that it was ready to fight back if Washington was looking for a trade war, days ahead of a planned visit by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

In an unexpected change in tone, the United States said on Tuesday that it still held the threat of imposing tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China unless it addressed the issue of theft of American intellectual property.

Washington also said it will press ahead with restrictions on investment by Chinese companies in the United States as well as export controls for goods exported to China.

Its tougher stance comes as President Donald Trump prepares for a June 12 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, whose key diplomatic backer is China, and as Washington steps up efforts to counter what it sees as Beijing’s efforts to limit freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

The trade escalation came after the two sides had agreed during talks in Washington this month to find steps to narrow China’s $375 billion trade surplus. Ross is expected to try to get China to agree to firm numbers to buy more U.S. goods during a June 2-4 visit to the Chinese capital.

“We urge the United States to keep its promise, and meet China halfway in the spirit of the joint statement,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a daily news briefing, adding that China would take “resolute and forceful” measures to protect its interests if Washington insists upon acting in an “arbitrary and reckless manner”.

“When it comes to international relations, every time a country does an about face and contradicts itself, it’s another blow to, and a squandering of, its reputation,” Hua said.

China has said it will respond in kind to threats by Trump to impose tariffs on up to $150 billion of Chinese goods.

---- Trade war fears had receded after the Trump administration said it had reached a deal to put ZTE Corp back in business after banning China’s second-biggest telecoms equipment maker from buying U.S. technology parts for seven years.

The easing in tension had fueled optimism that agreement was imminent for Chinese antitrust clearance for San Diego-based Qualcomm Inc’s $44 billion purchase of Netherlands-based NXP Semiconductors NV, which has been hanging in the balance amid the trade dispute.

A team of Qualcomm lawyers that is expecting to meet with Chinese regulators ahead of Ross’s arrival remained in San Diego as of late Tuesday, a source familiar with the matter said.

---- The Global Times, an influential tabloid run by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, said the United States was suffering from a “delusion” and warned that the “trade renege could leave Washington dancing with itself”.

State news agency Xinhua said China hoped that the United States would not act impulsively but stood ready to fight to protect its own interests.

“China will continue to hold pragmatic consultations with the United States’ delegation and hope that the United States will act in accordance with the spirit of the joint statement.”
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May 29, 2018 / 1:27 PM

China says U.S. trade move contrary to bilateral consensuses

Source: Xinhua| 2018-05-30 01:49:24|Editor: Mu Xuequan
BEIJING, May 29 (Xinhua) -- China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Tuesday that the U.S. statement is contrary to the consensuses the two sides have previously reached in Washington.

The ministry said the White House tactical statement is both unexpected and within expectation.

"Whatever measures the United States takes, China has the confidence, capability and experience to defend the interests of Chinese people and the core interests of the country," the MOC said on its website.

China urged the United States to act in accordance with the spirit of recent bilateral joint statement, the MOC said.

Fantasy to link Ivanka trademark with ZTE

Source:Global Times Published: 2018/5/29 22:48:40
US President Donald Trump's daughter Ivanka received approval from the Chinese government for her trademark applications this month. But US media immediately connected this to Donald Trump's U-turn on Chinese telecom company ZTE.

In addition, 60 lawmakers wrote a letter Sunday demanding an investigation into the alleged connections between Chinese investments in a Trump organization project in Indonesia and the president's decision to allow ZTE to recover its business.

Apparently those who dislike Trump are finding fault with him. These accusations may exert little effect on Trump, but have jeopardized China's reputation. ZTE is the direct victim. The firm may have to see more twists and turns before being allowed to import parts from the US.

Ivanka Trump's trademark application, Washington's lifting of sanctions on ZTE and Chinese investment in a theme park in Indonesia are all entirely unrelated. The US is so imaginative to connect these separate issues together.

China often suffers losses interacting with the US. For China, it's nearly impossible to guard against all the traps the US sets. The deals China has reached with the US government may be wrecked by other US forces. In many cases, the country behaves like a hoodlum under the name of democracy.

Washington decided to sanction ZTE amid disputes over the firm's handling of bonuses for its 35 employees. All observers believe that the ZTE is a bargaining chip in the trade war. More precisely, the company is a hostage to the US.

Now that China and the US have agreed on a framework for stopping their trade war, it is reasonable for Washington to release the hostage, ZTE.

Putting the trade war on hold has gained widespread popularity in China. But things are much more complicated in the US. While US industries welcome the move, there are many voices against it among US political circles and media.

The Sino-US relationship is mutually beneficial. It is hard for Beijing to live without Washington and vice-versa. The US is witnessing an internal divide over its trade ties with China. This is no more than a game of US politicians.
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“I sometimes get the impression that many U.S. media outlets work according to a principle which was common in the Soviet Union. Back then, people used to joke that the newspaper Pravda [Truth] had no truth in it, and the Izvestia [News] paper has no news in it. I get the impression that many U.S. media operate in the same way.”

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Another day, and yes, another report of a Tesla autopilot crash. After taking out a CA fire truck back in January, this time it was time to take out a CA police car. Next up, a CA ambulance I suppose.

Tesla hits parked Calif. police vehicle; driver blames Autopilot

May 29, 2018 @ 9:36 pm  
WASHINGTON -- The driver of a Tesla Inc. Model S crashed into an unoccupied, parked police vehicle in Laguna Beach, Calif., on Tuesday and the driver told investigators the Tesla was in "Autopilot" mode at the time, police said.

The driver suffered minor injuries, Laguna Beach Sergeant Jim Cota said, who posted photos of the crash scene showing extensive damage to the front end of the Tesla and the rear side of the police vehicle.

Autopilot is a semi-autonomous technology that the company says is a form of advanced cruise control.

"Tesla has always been clear that Autopilot doesn’t make the car impervious to all accidents," the company said in a statement after the accident and could not immediately confirm the driver's report that the vehicle was in Autopilot mode.

Several crashes and fire incidents involving Tesla vehicles this year has been a near constant challenge for CEO Elon Musk, who boasts that the company's vehicles are among the safest in the industry.

Earlier this month, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it was sending a team to investigate the crash of a Tesla vehicle in South Jordan, Utah. The driver was traveling at 60 miles (97 km) per hour when the Model S smashed into a fire truck stopped at a red light, according to police.

Police in Utah said data from Tesla showed that the driver enabled Autopilot about 1 minute and 22 seconds before the crash. The report said she took her hands off the steering wheel “within two seconds” of engaging the system and then did not touch the steering wheel for the next 80 seconds, until the crash happened.

NHTSA is also investigating a fatal crash in March that involved a Tesla Model X using Autopilot that struck a highway divider. The agency is also probing the January crash of a Tesla vehicle apparently traveling in Autopilot that struck a parked fire truck. Both of those incidents were also in California.

The National Transportation Safety Board is also probing four Tesla crashes that have occurred since last year, including three under review by NHTSA.

Tesla's Model S owner's manual warns some Autopilot functions "cannot detect all objects and may not brake/decelerate for stationary vehicles or objects especially when traveling over 50 mph (80 kph)" and when a vehicle ahead of the driver "moves out of your driving path and a stationary vehicle or object is in front of you."
Milton Friedman once put it, if you’re spending your own money on yourself, you care about price and quality. If you’re spending someone else’s money on yourself, you only care about quality. If you’re spending your own money on someone else, you care only about price. And if you’re spending someone else’s money on someone else, you don’t care about either.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Germany Faces Gigawatt-Scale Loss of Onshore Wind Power

Feed-in tariffs will soon expire for many of Germany’s 28,000 onshore wind turbines. How many will be retired or replaced?
Justin Gerdes

Germany could be facing a gigawatt-scale “decommissioning wave” in its onshore wind sector.
Writing earlier this month for the German-language magazine Top Agrar, Hinrich Neumann reported that many of Germany’s 28,000 onshore wind turbines could be decommissioned beginning in 2020.

Under Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (EEG), which took effect in 2000, renewable energy sources, including onshore wind turbines, secured priority grid access and guaranteed above-market payment for each kilowatt-hour delivered to the grid. These feed-in tariff (FIT) payments lasted for 20 years.

In 2020, the first of those feed-in tariff contracts expire. The Institute for Integrated Production Hannover (IPH), a nonprofit industrial engineering company, estimates that 2.4 gigawatts of installed onshore wind capacity will lose eligibility for guaranteed payments each year. In 2020, up to 4,500 turbines could come down because they will have been rendered uneconomical without the guaranteed payments, IPH project engineer Martin Westbomke told Neumann.

Asked about the chances Germany will see gigawatt-scale onshore wind capacity go offline after 2020 and not be replaced, Andrea Scassola, Europe wind market analyst at MAKE Consulting, said they're “high, given the ownership structure, which is typically very fragmented across a broad range of individuals (farmers, cooperatives, etc.).”

Citizen ownership of renewable energy projects is one of the pillars of Germany’s energy transition, or Energiewende, with households and farms accounting for more than 40 percent of renewables investment.
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https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/germany-faces-a-gigawatt-scale-loss-of-onshore-wind-power?utm_source=Daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GTMDaily#gs.IaN6lVk
"We finished the year, and we reported that we had $17 billion of cash sitting at the bank's parent company as a liquidity cushion. As the year has gone on, that liquidity cushion has been virtually unchanged."
Alan Schwartz, CEO Bear Stearns, March 12, 2008. Bust March 16, 2008.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April.

DJIA: 24,163 +255 Down. NASDAQ: 7,066 +282 Down. SP500: 2,648 +188 Down.
All three slow indicators moved down in March and continued down in April. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 

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