Baltic Dry Index. 1341 -20 Brent Crude 74.80
“If
you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”
James
Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan,
and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President
George H. W. Bush.
The Great Global
Trump Trade War against NATO and other US allies is off again, at least for
another month. Taking a page out of China’s playbook, the EUSSR had threatened
retaliation against President Trump’s base in the Red States, causing President
Trump to blink for a second time. For now, steel and aluminium tariffs are
delayed until the start of June.
To say the least,
this is no way to run the global economy, and doing no favours to those trying
to run the steel and aluminium industries nor their shareholders. While delay
is far better than starting the trade war, from London, it also seems to be
generating a lot of populist anti-American ill will across Europe, all too
likely to be fanned by Russian and China’s miraculously successful internet
geniuses.
U.S. Extends Steel Tariffs Relief for EU and Other Allies
By Justin Sink and Andrew Mayeda
Updated on 1 May 2018, 04:27 GMT+1
President Donald Trump will delay imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on
the European Union, Mexico and Canada until June 1 as he finalizes deals with
them, the White House said in a statement.
The administration has reached agreements-in-principle with Argentina,
Australia and Brazil, according to the statement, which the White House
released late Monday night. The details "will be finalized shortly,"
the statement added. The U.S. will also extend exemptions for the EU, Canada
and Mexico for 30 days to allow for further talks.
”In all of these negotiations, the administration is focused on quotas
that will restrain imports, prevent transshipment, and protect the national
security,” the White House said. “These agreements underscore the Trump
administration’s successful strategy to reach fair outcomes with allies to
protect our national security and address global challenges to the steel and
aluminum industries.”
Trump in March imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10
percent duty on aluminum after a government report found that foreign shipments
of the metals imperil national-security interests. He directed U.S. Trade
Representative Robert Lighthizer to negotiate with countries seeking to turn
their temporary tariff exemptions into permanent ones. Exemptions for the EU
and the five other nations were due to expire May 1.
The president’s decision to delay the tariffs gives breathing room --
but also a new deadline -- for allies who have been scrambling to secure
permanent refuge from the metals duties. It could be seen as a gesture of
goodwill for Canadian and Mexican negotiators who are in talks with the U.S. to
revise the North American Free Trade Agreement.
More
Next, more on the Great Global Trump Trade War.
In Trade Talks, China Is Too Clever by Half
There’s only one winner
from Beijing’s economic reforms.
by Michael Schuman 30 April 2018, 02:26 GMT+1
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and a team of White House heavies are
expected to visit Beijing, possibly as early as this week, for talks aimed at
defusing a tense, U.S.-China trade standoff. The delegation comes amid optimism
in Washington that its get-tough strategy is working after Beijing announced a
slate of reforms to open up sectors including automobiles, finance and
aerospace.
But as is often the case in China, how things appear on the surface is
not actually how they are. That’s especially true with China’s recent market
reforms. Beijing isn’t groveling before a tariff-rattling Washington, nor
honestly addressing the frustrations of international CEOs. That’s just not how
China works.
The real beneficiary of China’s proposals is China. The goal is to
marshal foreign companies, foreign capital and foreign technology to help China
defeat foreign competitors in the global economy.
A classic example is the recently announced deregulation in the automobile sector. Beijing promised to eliminate a requirement that overseas carmakers form joint ventures with Chinese partners to manufacture cars locally. For electric vehicles, that restriction could be dropped as early as this year. Some international firms will benefit by being able to set up wholly owned operations, most of all Tesla Inc.
But that’s not the real purpose of the change. Electric vehicles are a targeted industry in China, marked for special support in the nation’s “Made in China 2025” industrial program. The Chinese want to dominate the production of electric vehicles, and this “reform” is a necessary step to get there.
I’ll let Bill Russo, founder of Shanghai consultancy Automobility, explain: The reform “eliminates the only reason that may block global EV manufacturers and suppliers from investing in China capacity, making China the odds-on winner in the global race to electric transportation.”
It’s notable that the joint-venture rule for regular cars will be lifted far more slowly. Unlike new energy vehicles, old-fashioned combustion engine cars aren’t a priority. And even when the reform actually happens, it won’t make much difference. The JVs have been so entrenched for so long that, at this stage, it probably isn’t in the interests of foreign companies to change the status quo.
More
Requests for Trump Tariff Exclusions Flood Commerce Department
By Mark Niquette
30 April 2018, 09:00 GMT+1
The U.S. Commerce Department is wrestling with a flood of requests to
exclude products from steel and aluminum import tariffs imposed by President
Donald Trump, creating a backlog that’s sparked calls for action from lawmakers
and trade groups.Senators Orrin Hatch of Utah and Ron Wyden of Oregon, as well as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and others, want the government to speed up the process and dedicate more resources to it.
The Commerce Department says it’s already boosted staff, and wants approval from Congress to use more of its budgeted funds to help solve the problem.
Companies that win exclusions will be granted refunds for the tariffs, which they are currently paying. But the delays could mean tying up millions of dollars that a business would rather invest in facilities and employees, said Ann Wilson, senior vice president of government affairs for theMotor & Equipment Manufacturers Association, which represents vehicle suppliers.
“This apparent backlog creates uncertainly for our members, which puts businesses –- and jobs -- at risk,” Wilson said in a statement.
Some 3,500 exclusion requests have yet to be reviewed, while about 550 had been processed as of April 27, according to the Commerce Department. No decision on a request can be made until it’s been reviewed and posted online for 30 days for any objections.
More
Next, more backtracking in DC?
Who knew Rusal was an important global player in aluminium? No one in
Washington District of Crooks, it seems. My tip, before shooting from the hip,
try checking with the CIA World Factbook, first.
Mnuchin Says U.S. Doesn't Seek to Put Rusal Out of Business
By Saleha Mohsin and Stephanie Flanders“The first aspect would be that he sells down below 50 percent,” Mnuchin told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday in Los Angeles, calling discussions with the company about avoiding U.S. sanctions “encouraging.”
“Our objective was not to put Rusal out of business and that’s why we extended the license,” Mnuchin said.
The U.S. announced sanctions April 6 against Rusal, targeting Deripaska under a law that ordered the Trump administration to punish Russia for its alleged meddling in the 2016 election. Deripaska was identified in a January Treasury report as a so-called Russian oligarch close to the country’s president, Vladimir Putin.
Rusal has applied to be delisted from the U.S. sanctions and last week the Treasury Department for the first time described a path for the company to escape the penalties. Deripaska has agreed “in principle” to cut his stake in London-based En+ Group Plc, the holding company through which he controls Rusal.
Treasury also extended the deadline for companies to wind-down dealings with Rusal by almost five months to October. The move sparked a plunge in aluminum prices as traders speculated that supply disruptions could ease. Washington’s clarification follows two weeks of chaos in global metals markets following the announcement of the sanctions.
More
CIA World Factbook.
In other news, some
people make things happen, some people at the Fed watch while things happen, while
other greater fool stock pickers ask what happened. Over to the Fedster’s and
their two day meeting. Will they dare to pull the trigger on interest rates
tomorrow?
Below, a billionaire
putting his money where his fear is
This Billionaire Has Put Half His Net Worth Into Gold
By Tamim Elyan and Manus CrannyHe said in an interview Monday that he believes gold prices will rally further, reaching $1,800 per ounce from just above $1,300 now, while “overvalued” stock markets crash.
“In the end you have China and they will not stop consuming. And people also tend to go to gold during crises and we are full of crises right now,” Sawiris said at his office in Cairo overlooking the Nile. “Look at the Middle East and the rest of the world and Mr. Trump doesn’t help.”
President Donald Trump is aiding Sawiris in one way, though: If a North Korean peace deal can be reached, the Egyptian’s investments there may finally pay off. After 10 years of waiting to repatriate all his profits easily and control his mobile-phone company, Egypt’s second-richest man says an accord would let him reap some of his returns.
“I am taking all the hits, I am being paid in a currency that doesn’t get exchanged very easily, I have put a lot of money and built a hotel and did a lot of good stuff there,” said Sawiris, who founded North Korea’s first telecom operator, Koryolink. The North Korean unit’s costs and revenues aren’t currently recognized on the financial statements of Sawiris’ Orascom Telecom Media & Technology Holding SAE.
Sawiris over the years has been pressured by “every single Western government in the world” for his presence in the country hit by international sanctions for its nuclear threats, he said, but he considered himself a “goodwill investor.” His advice for governments and to Trump ahead of his expected meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un: Don’t bully him, and promise prosperity in exchange for concessions on nuclear.
More
21st
century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, a hedge fund manager shamelessly talks up his book. $300 per barrel
oil within a few years, he posits. Well if Trump keeps devaluing the dollar
under his strong dollar policy, anything’s possible I suppose.
"How
often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever
remains, however improbable,
must be the truth?
Sherlock Holmes, stock promoter.
Oil Hedge Fund Manager Says $300 Oil ‘Not Impossible’
By Javier Blas
Updated on 30 April 2018, 10:31 GMT+1
Pierre Andurand, one of oil’s most prominent hedge fund managers, said
the current reluctance of energy companies to invest in new production meant
$300 a barrel was "not impossible" within a few years.Andurand, who’s often espoused bullish views, said in a series of tweets on Sunday that concern about the impact of electric vehicles on future demand was limiting investment in projects with long lead times.
"So paradoxically these peak demand fears might bring the largest supply shock ever," he wrote. "If oil prices do not rise fast enough, $300 oil in a few years is not impossible."
The hedge fund manager, who runs oil-focused Andurand Capital Management LLP, also went against the conventional view that triple-digit oil prices will dampen demand growth.
"So no, $100 oil will not kill the economy," he wrote. "And we need +$100 oil to encourage enough investments outside of the U.S."
A spokesman for Andurand declined to comment on the tweets, which were later removed from Andurand’s Twitter account.
His comments on demand echo those of Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih, who earlier this month suggested that prices could rise further from their current level close to $75 a barrel without doing economic damage.
“We have seen prices significantly higher in the past, twice as much as where we are today”, and the global economy has the ability to absorb costlier crude, Al-Falih said. In 2008 Brent crude rose to nearly $150 a barrel, before crashing.
Saudi Minister
Andurand was among top commodity hedge fund managers who met with Al-Falih in July in London to discuss the state of the oil market. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners plan to maintain their production cuts this year, which have helped to boost oil prices.Andurand posted a near 10 percent drop in the first two months of the year as his fund stumbled against a background of zig-zagging energy prices, according to people familiar with the matter. The fund made money in March, one of the people said, asking not to be named discussing private data.
He launched his hedge fund in 2013 and it has been positive every year since.
There
will be some innocent victims in this fight against Blairite agents. We are
launching a major attack on the Enemy; let there be no resentment if we bump
someone with an elbow. Better that ten innocent people should suffer than one Blairite
get away. When you chop wood, chips fly.
Comrade
Agent Cob, GB’s Prime Minister-in-waiting, with apologies to “Internationalist”
Comrade Yezhov.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they
get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s
future from the 21st century onwards?
New carbon-dioxide-adsorbing crystals could form the basis of future biomedical materials that rely on the shape-memory effect
Date:
April 27, 2018
Source:
Kyoto University
Summary:
Scientists are one step closer to designing porous materials that can change
and retain their shapes -- a function known as shape-memory effect.
Kyoto University scientists are one step closer to designing porous
materials that can change and retain their shapes -- a function known as
shape-memory effect.
Shape-memory materials have applications in many fields. For example,
they could be implanted in the body and then induced to change shape for a
specific function, such as serving as the scaffold for bone tissue
regeneration. The shape-memory effect is well documented in some materials,
including ceramics and metal alloys. But it is rare and poorly understood in
crystalline porous materials.
Now, Susumu Kitagawa of Kyoto University's Institute for Integrated
Cell-Material Sciences and colleagues in Japan, Ireland and the US have
demonstrated a shape-memory effect in a flexible metal organic material -- only
the second such observation ever reported. They describe their findings in the
journal Science Advances.
Crystals were made by dissolving a mixture of chemicals and zinc nitrate
hexahydrate in a common solvent called dimethylformamide at 120°C for 24 hours.
Using an X-ray technique called single-crystal X-ray diffraction, the team
studied the crystals' structure. They found they were formed of slightly
distorted paddlewheel-shaped lattices, which were made of central zinc ions
linked to surrounding organic molecules. This 'alpha phase' of the crystal had 46%
porosity, meaning that 46% of its volume was available for accepting new
molecules; the property that makes porous materials suitable for a variety of
applications.
----Adding nitrogen or carbon monoxide under varying temperatures also induced the transformation of the crystal from its beta to its gamma phase.
The team was able to revert the crystal's gamma phase back to its beta
phase by heating it at 130°C in a vacuum for two hours. To revert to the alpha
phase, the gamma phase of the crystal was soaked in dimethylformamide for five
minutes.
The team's analyses of the crystal allowed them to have a better
understanding of how its function changes along with structure. The researchers
note their work could provide the basis for designing more examples of
shape-memory porous materials.
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April.
DJIA: 24,163 +255 Down. NASDAQ:
7,066 +282 Down. SP500: 2,648 +188 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and continued down in April. For some
a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal.
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