Baltic Dry Index. 1403 -65 Brent Crude 79.38
"When a President does it, that means that it is not
illegal."
President Richard Nixon.
Two weeks before the start of the Great Global
Trump Trade War on June 1, China and America resume their talks in Washington
today, in a last-ditch attempt at reaching a compromise averting the trade war.
But who will lose out in any compromise? But is the Baltic Dry Index already
signalling failure?
For NAFTA members Canada and Mexico, time for
renegotiating NAFTA has all but run out, if the new terms are to be passed by
the current US Congress in a lame duck session after November’s US mid-term
elections.
In the sclerotic EUSSR, EU leaders talked
tough on the issue of keeping the Iran deal alive, and thwarting any US
sanctions, but lacking any concrete plan to thwart any US sanctions, EU firms
started bolting from Iran. As of this morning, as reported by the extreme left
wing BBC news, Total, Maersk, and Allianz have all folded on deals with Iran. Crude
oil starts to flirt with an 80 handle.
Below, the global economy on the cusp of a coming
Summer Shock. Our global stock markets are
in dreamland.
"You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than
you can with a kind word alone."
Al Capone. Presidential Trade Consultant.
May 16, 2018 / 11:34 PM / Updated
6 hours ago
EU leaders struggle to save Iran economic ties from U.S. sanctions
SOFIA (Reuters) - European Union leaders agreed on Wednesday to try to
keep the Iran nuclear deal alive and maintain their reviving economic
cooperation with Tehran after U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the
pact.
But the 28 EU leaders did not make any quick decisions during their
first meeting on the matter since Trump quit the accord earlier this month,
highlighting how U.S. clout in international trade and finance limits the
Europeans’ scope for action.
That was quickly brought home by the French energy giant Total which
joined other European companies in signaling on Wednesday they could exit Iran.
“As long as Iran respects the provisions of the deal, the EU will also
respect it,” said Donald Tusk, president of the European Council and chairman
of the leaders’ gathering in the Bulgarian capital Sofia.
The leaders of Britain, France and Germany briefed their peers. The
three countries were EU signatories of the 2015 deal that gave Iran sanctions
relief in exchange for curbing its nuclear program but which Trump dismissed as
“the worst deal ever.”
The head of the bloc’s executive, Jean-Claude Juncker of the European
Commission, has also presented options the leaders have to shield European
investments in Iran and the slowly reviving economic cooperation, which many EU
states hope to benefit from.
An EU source said after the talks the leaders agreed to start “work to
protect European companies negatively affected by the U.S. decision.”
Options include allowing the European Investment Bank to invest there
and coordinating euro-denominated credit lines from EU states.
Foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain met their Iranian
counterpart in Brussels on Tuesday and tasked their experts to come up with
measures for a meeting of their deputies in Vienna next week.
But a senior EU official admitted there was no silver-bullet solution
and that it would “take some time” for the bloc to come up with what would be a
complex mix of national and joint steps.
The EU’s top energy and climate official, Commissioner Miguel Arias
Canete, is heading to Iran on May 18-21 for talks on energy cooperation, a
symbolic gesture from the EU that it wants to stay engaged despite the U.S.
withdrawal.
More
Total set to pull out of Iran gas deal without sanctions waiver
May 16, 2018 / 8:41 AM
Total
said it will unwind operations by November unless sanctions are waived.Washington is re-imposing strict sanctions on Iran, which were lifted under the 2015 deal to curb the country's nuclear ambitions.
German insurer Allianz and Danish tanker operator Maersk are also winding down their business in Iran.
Total signed a contract in 2017 to develop phase 11 of Iran's South Pars gas field, with an initial planned investment of $1bn (£750m).
"Total will not continue the SP11 (South Pars 11) project and will have to unwind all related operations before 4 November 2018, unless Total is granted a specific project waiver by US authorities with the support of the French and European authorities," the French oil and gas company said in a statement
----Total's announcement comes after Denmark's Maersk, which operates oil tankers globally, said it would fulfil commitments in Iran already on its books but would not enter into any new contracts.
Another Danish oil tanker operator Torm has said it would stop taking
new orders in Iran.
German insurer Allianz said its business in Iran was "totally
minimal" but while they were waiting for guidance from the EU and the
German government they would be winding down any business there.
Total said it had spent less than $47m on the Iran project so far and
that pulling out would not affect the company's production growth targets.
More
Merkel backs Iran deal, cautious on euro zone reform
BERLIN
(Reuters) - Germany’s Angela Merkel on Wednesday defended the Iran nuclear deal
following its rejection by Washington, arguing the pact is the best way to
tackle concerns about Tehran’s role in Syria and its ballistic missile
programme.
In a wide-ranging policy speech to the Bundestag lower house of
parliament, the chancellor of 12-1/2 years addressed a range of individual
issues from euro zone reform to digitalisation and defence, without laying out
a cohesive strategic vision.
A multilateral approach, including towards Iran, is the only option,
said Merkel, who with other European powers is struggling to keep alive the
nuclear deal without the United States.
Merkel described the deal as “everything other than ideal”, but argued
that international nuclear authorities said Iran was sticking to its
commitments.
“This does not mean we are happy about everything Iran is doing, we have
to talk about its role in Syria, its ballistic missile programme, other issues,
but the question is whether you can talk better if you terminate an agreement
or if you stay in it,” Merkel told lawmakers.
“We say you can talk better if you remain in it,” she added.
----“Despite
all the difficulties that we have these days, the transatlantic relationship is
and remains paramount,” Merkel, whose fourth term atop a coalition started in
March after her conservatives made big losses in a Sept. vote, told lawmakers.
“But
these transatlantic relationships also must be able to deal with
differences of opinion.”
More
May 17, 2018 / 2:09 AM
Asian shares inch higher; euro tries to shake off Italian political risk
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Asian shares edged higher on Thursday while the euro gained some
respite after hitting five-month lows a day earlier.
The common currency slumped on Wednesday following a report that Italian
populist parties trying to form a coalition government could ask the European
Central Bank to forgive 250 billion euros of Italian debt.
In equity markets, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside
Japan rose 0.1 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.7 percent.
The gains in Asian shares came after U.S. equities advanced on
Wednesday, led by retail and technology shares, even as a rise in U.S. 10-year
Treasury yields to an almost seven-year high suggested more competition for
equities.
“In general, Asian equities are buffered from rising U.S. yields by the
constructive tone of the U.S.-China trade talks as well as strong earnings
numbers,” said Heng Koon How, head of markets strategy for UOB in Singapore.
The United States and China start trade talks on Thursday intended to
avert a damaging tariff war, with the White House’s harshest China critic relegated
to a supporting role, senior Trump administration officials said on Wednesday.
----Worries about political risks jolted Italian markets and pressured the euro following reports that Italy’s anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and anti-immigrant League may ask the European Central Bank to forgive 250 billion euros of debt as the parties worked to draft a coalition program.
That was enough to spook Italian markets, even though the League’s
economic spokesman told Reuters that debt cancellation was never in an official
draft of a government program..
The two populist parties have been holding talks aimed at forming a
coalition government and ending 10 weeks of stalemate following an inconclusive
election on March 4.
On Wednesday, Italian stocks tumbled 2.3 percent while Italy’s 10-year
bond yield jumped nearly 19 basis points to 2.13 percent.
More
May 17, 2018 / 5:29 AM
China, HK stocks edge lower ahead of Sino-U.S. trade talks
SHANGHAI, May 17 (Reuters) - China and Hong Kong stocks edged lower on
Thursday as investors took a cautious stance ahead of the Sino-U.S. trade talks
to be held later in the day.
** The CSI300 index dropped 0.4 percent to 3,878.45 points at the end of
the morning session, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.2 percent to
3,162.23 points.
** The Hang Seng index was unchanged at 31,097.96 points, while the Hong
Kong China Enterprises Index lost 0.8 percent to 12,338.98. ** The United
States and China will launch trade talks on Thursday in a bid to avert a
damaging tariff war, with the White House’s harshest China critic relegated to
a supporting role, senior Trump administration officials said on Wednesday.
** China’s CSI300 financial sector sub-index was lower by 0.05 percent,
the consumer staples sector down 0.85 percent, the real estate index up 0.07
percent and healthcare sub-index down 1.22 percent.
** Chinese H-shares listed
in Hong Kong fell 0.81 percent to 12,338.98, while the Hang Seng Index dipped
0.04 percent to 31,097.96. ** The smaller Shenzhen index was down 0.29 percent
and the start-up board ChiNext Composite index was weaker by 0.58 percent.
More
Finally in US real news
rather than Trump news, with the US driving season set to get underway on May
28, Marketwatch covers high priced gasoline’s drag on the US economy. If the
trade war and US Iran sanctions are to be our future, a long hot summer of
economic shocks lies directly ahead.
Here’s how much $3-per-gallon gas will offset the tax cuts
Published: May 15, 2018 12:59 p.m. ET
It’s a question on everyone’s minds, as gas prices tip toward $3 a gallon
nationally and campaigning for midterm elections heats up — will the rise in
gas prices offset the benefit of the tax cuts?The general rule of thumb is that every 1 cent per gallon more results in $1 billion less in consumption per year.
At $3 per gallon — the nice, round number that’s been thrown around as OPEC has successfully restricted supply and the U.S. imposes sanctions on Iran — that’s 58 cents over the 2017 average, and therefore, $58 billion less in consumption.
Read: U.S. gasoline prices could top $3 this summer thanks to Iran and Venezuela
Of course there’s no guarantee a gallon of gas will average $3 for the full year, especially given that through four months of the year it’s averaged $2.62 per gallon. If gas averages $3 per gallon for the rest of 2018 — which isn’t far fetched — then the average price will be $2.87 per gallon, implying $45 billion less of consumption per year.
Then you have to look at the impact of the tax cuts. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that, on net, the U.S. government will bring in $122 billion less in taxes for individuals in calendar year 2018.
Using those numbers, gas averaging $3 per gallon the rest of the year would eat up 37% of the tax cuts.
Sell-side estimates are of similar magnitude. Morgan Stanley ran numbers assuming gas would average $2.96 per gallon, and said it would wipe out $38 billion in consumption or a third of the tax cuts, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Oxford Economics ran the numbers based on crude-oil prices CLM8, +0.31% — and included not just the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act but also the budget bill passed this year. They found if crude-oil prices averaged $70 a barrel this year, half of the fiscal boost would be eroded.
----One other factor to consider is that the distribution of the gasoline price rises and tax cuts are very different. Spending on gas accounts for a larger share of income for lower-income households, while the change in income from the tax cuts is skewed to upper income households.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that spending on gasoline and motor
oil in 2016 accounted for about 8% of total income for the average household in
the bottom 20% of the income distribution, more than five times that of
households in the highest 20% income quintile.
Put another way — for households at the bottom 20% of the income
distribution, the 30-cents-per-gallon increase from last year’s level that’s
already happened will offset the benefit from tax cuts.
More
“What do I care about the law ? Hain't I got the power."
Cornelius
Vanderbilt, 1794-1877. Presidential Trade Consultant.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, message to Trump’s Washington, District of Crooks, next time look
before you leap. How aluminium sanctions nearly brought much of global ali trade
to a screeching halt. It’s what passes for adult governance in Washington, in
2018.
May 16, 2018 / 12:09 AM
How Rusal escaped the noose of U.S. sanctions
LONDON/PARIS/WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - They were supposed to be the toughest sanctions the United States
had ever imposed on a Russian oligarch. Seventeen days later, Washington
watered them down.
On April 23, the U.S. Treasury eased restrictions on billionaire Oleg
Deripaska’s aluminium company Rusal (0486.HK).
Instead of barring Rusal from international markets, which is what the United
States originally intended to do, the Treasury suggested it might lift the
sanctions altogether. Washington’s change of course says a lot about the leverage held by the supply chain of a widely-used commodity such as aluminium. It also suggests the Trump administration is hard-pressed as it juggles international economic battles it has opened on various fronts, including with China and Iran.
Several European governments, including Germany and France, lobbied Washington to back down, according to more than a dozen U.S. and EU officials and industry sources who spoke to Reuters.
Multinationals Rio Tinto and Boeing also appealed to the U.S. Treasury, seeking a softening of the terms on Rusal.
All made the same argument, the sources said: a squeeze on the largest producer of aluminium outside China would hit businesses around the world, disrupting production of myriad goods from car and planes to cans and foil, and putting jobs at risk.
Unlike previous cases of sanctions on Russia, European countries did not have a chance to consult with Washington on punitive moves that would have ripple effects in the European economy, the sources said. One reason for the lack of dialogue: the U.S. State Department no longer has a Sanctions Policy Coordinator to liaise with other governments, according to three U.S. sources familiar with the matter and one European source.
The former coordinator, Daniel Fried, retired last year and has not been replaced because of a hiring freeze ordered by the Trump administration at the department.
Rusal, Rio Tinto and Boeing declined to comment.
----The sanctions were the toughest the United States has imposed on a
listed Russian company since Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. The notice on
April 6 gave buyers a deadline of 30 days to receive supplies from Rusal
before dealings in dollars were prohibited.
Any individual or company that failed to comply would themselves face
being shut out of the financial system, while the Treasury could seize any
dollars paid to Rusal.
The effect was immediate. Prices for aluminium surged 15 percent as
Rusal stopped supplying customers. As well as producing aluminium, the company
produces alumina, a raw material needed to make aluminium.
“They (the Treasury) destabilised the global aluminium industry. This is
unprecedented and a massive over-reach,” said Anders Aslund, senior fellow at
U.S. think-tank Atlantic Council.
Rusal told metals and mining conglomerate Rio Tinto that it was
suspending deliveries of alumina from its Irish plant in Aughinish to Rio’s
Dunkirk aluminium smelter in France, Europe’s biggest aluminium production
facility, according to the industry sources. The Russian company feared any
payment it received would be seized by U.S. authorities, the sources said.
Rusal also informed Trimet Aluminium it was halting alumina deliveries
to the German firm’s smelter in the French Alps and three factories in Germany,
in Essen, Hamburg and Voerde.
Trimet declined to comment.
The suspension of alumina deliveries risked halting Rio Tinto and
Trimet’s aluminium smelting operations and hitting businesses throughout the
metal’s supply chain.
More
"You can have your
cake and eat it too."
Stan Laurel. Presidential Trade Consultant.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
May 15, 2018 / 1:40 AM
Solar power could save water in thirsty Middle East, North Africa, analysis says
NEW YORK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Thirsty Middle Eastern and North
African countries could tap into their solar-energy potential to cope with
fresh water scarcity, according to resource experts.
Water could be saved by switching to renewable solar energy from fossil
fuel electricity generation that uses up water, said the World Resources
Institute (WRI).
The findings show moving to clean energy has benefits aside from cutting
planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, said Tianyi Luo, a senior WRI manager.
“A lot of times, the water savings, that kind of benefits from renewable
projects are overlooked,” Luo told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, the United Arab
Emirates and Jordan ranked among the top countries, measured by lack of
freshwater and solar energy potential, that could benefit from such a switch,
the WRI said.
“These countries have high-average resources for both solar and wind
that could be put to very productive uses, and it could potentially assist them
in their water-related challenges,” said Jordan Macknick, energy and water
analyst at the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
Fresh and sea water is often used in the process of cooling fossil-fuel
power plants, ubiquitous in the Middle East and North Africa, according to the
World Bank.
Put another way, powering one 60-watt incandescent light bulb for 12
hours over one a year can consume 3,000 to 6,000 gallons of water, according to
the U.S.-based Virginia Water Resources Research Center.
Solar panels, meanwhile, require little or no water to install and
maintain.
Yemen, an impoverished nation in the grip of civil war, topped the WRI
ranking in terms of water scarcity and how much potential electricity solar
farms could produce.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, ranked third.
Despite its wealth of oil, the kingdom recently stepped up its
involvement in expanding solar energy with an announcement in March of
investments to create the world’s biggest solar power project.
The project is expected to have the capacity to produce up to 200
gigawatts by 2030.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April.
DJIA: 24,163 +255 Down. NASDAQ:
7,066 +282 Down. SP500: 2,648 +188 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and continued down in April. For some
a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal.
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