Baltic Dry Index. 1474 +04 Brent Crude 78.28
"Can't anybody here play this
game?"
President Trump, with apologies
to Casey Stengel.
We open today with yet another red flag
signalling all’s not well in the global economy. But is anyone, other than me,
paying attention? Money is getting
tighter, if not tight, again. Have we
already passed peak Manhattan, peak cryptocurrency mania, peak stocks? A long
hot summer lies directly ahead. Will 2018 rhyme with 1987?
Price Cuts for Luxury NYC Condos Continue With Week's Top Deal
Oshrat
CarmielMay 14, 2018, 10:08 AM EDT
It’s tough to make a profit if you bought a Manhattan
condo at the height of Midtown’s luxury frenzy.
Consider the top apartment to go into contract last week: a 4,545-square-foot (422-square-meter), four-bedroom condo at the Baccarat Hotel & Residences that found a buyer after 388 days on the market, according to report today by Olshan Realty Inc. The asking price at the time of the contract was $18.75 million, after a reduction in January. The seller bought it in 2015 for $20.6 million.
Twenty-four luxury properties -- those priced at $4
million and above -- went into contract last week, at asking prices that were
11 percent less than what sellers had initially sought, according to the
report.
“The increasing negotiability is the single biggest
factor in motivating buyers off the sidelines,” Olshan Realty said in the
report. “It all comes down to price.”
A townhouse also listed at $18.75 million
tied the Baccarat condo for top deal of the week. The sellers of that property,
at 39 E. 67th St., didn’t do any better. They bought it in October 2014 for
$22.5 million, according to the report.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-14/price-cuts-for-luxury-nyc-condos-continue-with-week-s-top-dealAsian Stocks Drop; Dollar Gains as Yields Above 3%: Markets Wrap
By Andreea Papuc
Updated on 15 May 2018, 06:12 GMT+1
Stocks in Asia declined Tuesday, while the dollar strengthened and 10-year Treasury yields rose back above the 3 percent mark as investors assessed the outlook for global trade relations and increased tensions in the Middle East.
Equity benchmarks dropped in Hong Kong, Korea and Australia, and pared early gains in Japan. Chinese stocks fluctuated after a slew of data showed economic momentum broadly held up. U.S. futures pointed to a lower open. Treasury yields climbed above 3 percent after dipping below that level earlier and the dollar extended gains against a basket of its Group of 10 peers.
Investor focus returned to trade ahead of a meeting in Washington between U.S. and Chinese officials this week. While President Donald Trump’s move to get China’s beleaguered ZTE Corp. back on its feet provided a sign that he may be open to easing trade tensions, the messages from his administration appear to be mixed. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the U.S. is exploring alternatives to punish ZTE for breaking sanctions law separately from trade negotiations, a comment that later appeared to be contradicted by Trump.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-14/asia-futures-mixed-as-u-s-treasury-yield-tops-3-markets-wrap
Trump denies going soft on Beijing amid ‘make China great again’ mockery
President Trump fended off criticism Monday that he is going soft on
China’s unfair trade practice after he moved to cancel sanctions against a
cheating Chinese company out of concern for its workers, action that prompted
Democrats to mock the president for trying to “make China great again.”
The president made the startling reversal on ZTE Corp., China’s
second-largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment, as U.S. and
Chinese negotiators prepared to meet Tuesday in Washington for a second round
of trade talks.
After Mr. Trump said he wants to help ZTE “get back into business,
fast,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he would explore quickly
“alternative remedies” to a seven-year ban against the company for trade
violations.
Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida Republican, said the problem with ZTE “isn’t
jobs & trade, it’s national security & espionage.”
“Any telecomm firm in #China can be forced to act as tool of Chinese
espionage without any court order or any other review process. We are crazy to
allow them to operate in U.S. without tighter restrictions,” Mr. Rubio tweeted.
U.S. intelligence officials told Congress this year that Americans
should avoid products by ZTE and
its Chinese rival Huawei because of
cybersecurity concerns. The Pentagon two weeks ago banned the sale of both
companies’ phones on U.S. military bases, saying they “may pose an unacceptable
risk to Department’s personnel, information and mission.”
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/14/donald-trump-fends-china-trade-criticism-after-zte/
Where will crude oil top out, and what damage
are current prices already doing to the global economy, Russia and Saudi Arabia
excepted? With the great US summer driving season fast approaching, an epic
battle between the oil bulls and bears is just getting underway. But money
spent of high priced gasoline isn’t spent elsewhere. Have we already passed
peak retailing too?
May 15, 2018 / 6:05 AM
Investors see big oil surge, but physical markets suggest caution
NEW YORK/LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil futures prices have soared past three-year highs, OPEC’s deal has cut millions of barrels of inventory worldwide and investors are betting in record numbers that prices could rocket past $80 and even hit $90 a barrel this year.
But physical markets for oil shipments tell a different story. Spot
crude prices are at their steepest discounts to futures prices in years due to
weak demand from refiners in China and a backlog of cargoes in Europe. Sellers
are struggling to find buyers for West African, Russian and Kazakh cargoes,
while pipeline bottlenecks trap supply in west Texas and Canada.
The divergence is notable because traditionally, physical markets are
viewed as a better gauge of short-term fundamentals. Crude traders who peddle
cargoes to refineries worldwide say speculators are on shaky ground as they
drive futures markets above $70 a barrel, their highest levels for
three-and-a-half years, on concerns about tighter supply from Venezuela and the
potential impact of U.S. sanctions on supply from Iran.
Investors have piled millions of dollars in record wagers in the options
market, betting on a further rally on the back of rising geopolitical tensions,
particularly in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, and the global decline in
supply.
“Guys who are trading futures have a view that draws are coming and big draws are coming,” a U.S.-based crude trader at a global commodity merchant said, adding that demand could ramp up as global refinery maintenance ends.
“Over the next few weeks, we should start to see markets globally clean up, but if that doesn’t happen, I think we could be in trouble.”
Brent, the benchmark on which two-thirds of the world’s oil is priced, has surpassed $78 a barrel, the highest since November 2014. U.S. crude futures hit a high just short of $72.
Inventories in the developed world are now just 9 million barrels above the five-year average, down from 340 million barrels above the average in January 2017, after supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil-trading/investors-see-big-oil-surge-but-physical-markets-suggest-caution-idUKKCN1IG0GH?il=0
In other uncertain news for oil, America’s Iraq nemesis is about to get control in Bagdad. Does a settling of old scores come next? But will Sadr’s party be blocked from taking power by a combination of all others? What will be the effect on oil production, if any?
May 13, 2018 / 8:57 AM
Populist cleric Sadr all but wins Iraq election
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Populist cleric
Moqtada al-Sadr, a long-time adversary of the United States, has all but won
Iraq’s parliamentary election, the electoral commission said, in a surprise
turn of fortune for the Shi’ite leader.
In the first election since Islamic State was defeated in the country,
Iran-backed Shi’ite militia chief Hadi al-Amiri’s bloc was in second place,
while Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, once seen as the front-runner, trailed in
third.
The preliminary results were based on a count of more than 91 percent of
the votes cast in 16 of Iraq’s 18 provinces.
Sadr’s bloc did not run in the remaining two provinces, Kurdish Dohuk
and the ethnically-mixed oil province of Kirkuk. The results there, which may
be delayed due to tensions between local parties, will not affect Sadr’s
standing.
Unlike Abadi, a rare ally of both the United States and Iran, Sadr is an
opponent of both countries, which have wielded influence in Iraq since a
U.S.-led invasion toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003 and thrust the
Shi’ite majority into power.
Sadr has led two uprisings against U.S. forces in Iraq and is one of the
few Shi’ite leaders to distance himself from Iran.
---- Projecting himself as an Iraqi nationalist, Sadr has a zealous following among the young, poor and dispossessed, but he had been sidelined by influential Iran-backed figures.
He cannot become prime minister as he did not run in the election,
though his apparent victory puts him in a position to pick someone for the job.
But even then, his bloc might not necessarily form the next government.
Whoever wins the most seats must negotiate a coalition government in order to
have a majority in parliament. The government should be formed within 90 days
of the official results.
---- A similar fate could befall Sadr. Iran has publicly stated it will not allow his bloc to govern.
“We will not allow liberals and communists to govern in Iraq,” Ali Akbar
Velayati, top adviser to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, said in February.
His statement, which sparked criticism by Iraqi figures, was referring
to the electoral alliance between Sadr, the Iraqi Communist Party and other
secular groups which joined protests organised by Sadr in 2016 to press the
government to see through a move to stem endemic corruption.
More
In EUSSR Asylum news, the sky appears to be
falling in on Brussels, this week. First Italy, now Spain v Catalonia. While Brexit
gets nearer with each passing day, Brussels and London dither.
May 14, 2018 / 2:39 PM
Catalonia votes in hardline separatist as leader
BARCELONA (Reuters) - The Catalan
parliament voted in a hard-line separatist as leader on Monday, heralding an
end to seven months of direct rule from Madrid but also more political
uncertainty in a region that retains a mandate to seek a split from Spain.
The election of Quim Torra as regional leader will allow the wealthy
region to run its own affairs for the first time since October, when Madrid
imposed direct rule after sacking the previous administration after it declared
independence.
It should also lead to Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy securing the
backing he needs from regional parties to implement much-delayed central
government budget plans. But it is unlikely to ease tensions between Madrid and
Barcelona.
The deeply-divided Catalan parliament voted 66 in favour, 65 against and
4 abstentions for the election of Torra, a former lawyer and publisher with
little political experience. The simple majority was what he needed to be voted
leader after failing to get an absolute majority in a ballot on Saturday.
Following the vote, pro-independence lawmakers stood to sing the Catalan
anthem. Torra, who was hand-picked as candidate by former regional leader
Carles Puigdemont, then embraced members of parliament who formed a line to
congratulate him.
Many wore yellow ribbons in honour of Catalan politicians held in
custody in jail for their role in October’s illegal independence referendum.
In a speech to parliament on Saturday, Torra promised to work towards a
Catalan republic and referred to Puigdemont, who is in Berlin waiting for a
German court to rule on an extradition request from Spain, as the legitimate
leader of the region.
The Spanish government called the speech confrontational and a member of
the Catalan parliament for Rajoy’s People’s Party (PP), Andrea Levy, said on
Monday in a television interview that Madrid would apply direct rule again if
the new administration overstepped the law.
Fearing an investor backlash, over three thousand companies have moved
their registered headquarters out of Catalonia since October, while tourism
also dipped after the referendum.
But over the whole of 2017, visitor numbers to Catalonia rose and its
economy grew strongly, out-pacing the Spanish regional average.
More
Finally,
if it wasn’t for bad news Tesla wouldn’t have news at all.
May 14, 2018 / 10:03 PM
Tesla crash may have triggered battery fire: Swiss firefighters
ZURICH (Reuters) - Swiss firefighters said on Monday that the impact in
a fatal accident involving a Tesla electric car may have set off a fire in the
vehicle’s battery.
A 48-year-German driver died when his car hit the barrier in the central
reservation of a motorway in the southern Swiss canton of Ticino, turned over
and burst into flames.
The crash, which happened on Thursday, is one of several accidents to
affect Tesla Inc vehicles in recent days.
“The violent impact of Lithium-ion batteries could probably have caused
a phenomenon called ‘thermal runaway’, i.e. a rapid and unstoppable increase in
temperature,” Ticino fire brigade said on its Facebook page.
Lithium-ion batteries can, under very exceptional circumstances, have a
sudden and unstoppable increase in temperature, in a sort of chain reaction
that leads to the complete destruction of the batteries and the car, said fire
safety expert Guido Zaccarelli in an article quoted by the firefighters.
A Tesla spokesman said: “We are deeply saddened by this accident, and we
are working to establish the facts of the incident and offer our full
cooperation to local authorities.”
More
"Most ball games are lost, not
won."
Casey Stengel.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
In the Great Global Trump Trade War, China fights
dirty. Recycle your own trash, says China. But where and how and at what cost,
says Uncle Scam.
Recycling, Once Embraced by Businesses and Environmentalists, Now Under Siege
Local officials raise fees and send recyclables to landfills as economics erode
May 13, 2018 7:00 a.m. ET By Bob Tita
The U.S. recycling industry is breaking down.Prices for scrap paper and plastic have collapsed, leading local officials across the country to charge residents more to collect recyclables and send some to landfills. Used newspapers, cardboard boxes and plastic bottles are piling up at plants that can’t make a profit processing them for export or domestic markets.
“Recycling as we know it isn’t working,” said James Warner, chief executive of the Solid Waste Management Authority in Lancaster County, Pa. “There’s always been ups and downs in the market, but this is biggest disruption that I can recall.”
U.S. recycling programs took off in the 1990s as calls to bury less trash in landfills coincided with China’s demand for materials like corrugated cardboard to feed its economic boom. Ship lines eagerly filled containers that had brought manufactured goods to the U.S. with paper, scrap metal and plastic bottles for the return trip to China.
As cities aggressively expanded recycling programs to keep more discarded household items out of landfills, the purity of U.S. scrap deteriorated as more trash infiltrated the recyclables. Discarded food, liquid-soaked paper and other contaminants recently accounted for as much as 20% of the material shipped to China, according to Waste Management Inc.’s estimates, double from five years ago.
The tedious and sometimes dangerous work of separating out that detritus at processing plants in China prompted officials there to slash the contaminants limit this year to 0.5%. China last week suspended all imports of U.S. recycled materials until June 4, regardless of the quality. The recycling industry interpreted the move as part of the growing rift between the U.S. and China over trade policies and tariffs.
The changes have effectively cut off exports from the U.S., the world’s largest generator of scrap paper and plastic. Collectors, processors and the municipal governments that hire them are reconsidering what they will accept to recycle and how much homeowners pay for that service. Many trash haulers and city agencies that paid for curbside collection by selling scrap said they are now losing money on almost every ton they handle.
The upended economics are likely to permanently change the U.S. recycling business, said William Moore, president of Moore & Associates, a recycled paper consultancy in Atlanta.
Cal-Waste
Recovery Systems plans to invest more than $6 million on new sorting equipment
to produce cleaner bales of recyclables. Photo: Max Whittaker for The Wall
Street Journal
“It’s going to take domestic demand to replace what China was buying,”
he said. “It’s not going to be a quick turnaround. It’s going to be a long-term
issue.”
The waste-management authority in Lancaster County this spring more than
doubled the charge per ton that residential trash collectors must pay to
deposit recyclables at its transfer station starting June 1. The higher cost is
expected to be passed on to residents though a 3% increase in the fees that
haulers charge households for trash collection and disposal.
The additional transfer-station proceeds will help offset a $40-a-ton
fee that the authority will start paying this summer to a company to process
the county’s recyclables. Before China raised its quality standards at the
beginning of this year, that company was paying Lancaster County $4 for every
ton of recyclables.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Waterloo chemists create faster and more efficient way to process information
Moore's Law extended with the use of light
Date:
May 11, 2018
Source:
University of Waterloo
Summary:
Chemists have found a much faster and more efficient way to store and process
information by expanding the limitations of how the flow of electricity can be
used and managed.
University of Waterloo chemists have found a much faster and more
efficient way to store and process information by expanding the limitations of
how the flow of electricity can be used and managed.
In a recently released study, the chemists discovered that light can
induce magnetization in certain semiconductors -- the standard class of
materials at the heart of all computing devices today.
"These results could allow for a fundamentally new way to process,
transfer, and store information by electronic devices, that is much faster and
more efficient than conventional electronics."
For decades, computer chips have been shrinking thanks to a steady
stream of technological improvements in processing density. Experts have,
however, been warning that we'll soon reach the end of the trend known as
Moore's Law, in which the number of transistors per square inch on integrated
circuits double every year.
"Simply put, there's a physical limit to the performance of
conventional semiconductors as well as how dense you can build a chip,"
said Pavle Radovanovic, a professor of chemistry and a member of the Waterloo
Institute for Nanotechnology. "In order to continue improving chip
performance, you would either need to change the material transistors are made
of -- from silicon, say to carbon nanotubes or graphene -- or change how our
current materials store and process information."
Radovanovic's finding is made possible by magnetism and a field called
spintronics, which proposes to store binary information within an electron's
spin direction, in addition to its charge and plasmonics, which studies
collective oscillations of elements in a material.
"We've basically magnetized individual semiconducting nanocrystals
(tiny particles nearly 10,000 times smaller than the width of a human hair)
with light at room temperature," said Radovanovic. "It's the first
time someone's been able to use collective motion of electrons, known as
plasmon, to induce a stable magnetization within such a non-magnetic
semiconductor material."
In manipulating plasmon in doped indium oxide nanocrystals Radovanovic's
findings proves that the magnetic and semiconducting properties can indeed be
coupled, all without needing ultra-low temperatures (cryogens) to operate a
device.
He anticipates the findings could initially lead to highly sensitive
magneto-optical sensors for thermal imaging and chemical sensing. In the
future, he hopes to extend this approach to quantum sensing, data storage, and
quantum information processing.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April.
DJIA: 24,163 +255 Down. NASDAQ:
7,066 +282 Down. SP500: 2,648 +188 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and continued down in April. For some
a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal.
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