Thursday, 10 May 2018

Economic War, EU v USA? USA War On Iran?


Baltic Dry Index. 1465 +33     Brent Crude 77.77

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the United States should not consider itself the world’s “economic policeman”.

In fallout from President Trump’s decision to reneg on America’s commitment to the international nuclear deal with Iran, the EU led by Macron and Merkel, talked up a storm about saving the deal without the USA.  For now a war of words has broken out between France, Germany and the USA, but will it lead on to an economic war between the EU and USA? Will the EU really go on the line for far away Islamic dictatorship Iran?

Iran for its part remained sceptical that the EU can do more than talk, rather than deliver anything meaningful, and threatened to resume its nuclear activity.  For his part, President Trump stepped up his bluster against Iran. Israel got on with its undeclared war on Iran in Syria. But can a real USA war on Iran be far away?

The danger of a misstep is rising virtually by the hour. The soaring oil price only benefits Russia and Saudi Arabia, (and Scotland,) but soon will severely stress test much of the west.  The rising dollar will hurt US farm exports irrespective of the Great Global Trump Trade War.

Best to keep the car fully topped up with fuel, get out early from stocks, and add to holdings of fully paid up physical gold and silver.

Below, more on Trump’s bull in Europe’s china shop.

May 8, 2018 / 6:04 AM

Europeans work to save Iran deal, and business, after Trump pulls out

WASHINGTON/PARIS (Reuters) - Dismayed European allies sought on Wednesday to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and preserve their Iranian trade after President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the landmark accord and ordered sanctions reimposed on Tehran.

“The deal is not dead. There’s an American withdrawal from the deal but the deal is still there,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said.

But Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a pragmatist who helped engineer the 2015 deal to ease Iran’s economically crippling isolation, told French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in a phone call that Europe had only a “limited opportunity” to preserve the pact, the Iranian Students’ News Agency reported.

“(Europe)... must, as quickly as possible, clarify its position and specify and announce its intentions with regard to its obligations,” ISNA quoted Rouhani as telling Macron.

Macron, who like other European leaders had lobbied Trump to keep the agreement that was struck before the Republican president took office in January 2017, urged Rouhani to adhere to the deal and to consider broader negotiations.

Trump said on Tuesday he would revive U.S. economic sanctions, which would penalize foreign firms doing business with Tehran, to undermine what he called “a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made”.

On Wednesday, he said Iran would now either negotiate or “something will happen.” It was not immediately clear what actions he was suggesting would take place.

The White House said later that Trump was preparing to impose new sanctions on Iran, perhaps as early as next week, but gave no details.

----The U.S. pullout could strengthen hardliners in Iranian politics at the expense of moderates like Rouhani who had pinned their hopes on the deal to boost living standards in Iran, with limited success so far.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a hardliner, said: “Mr Trump, I tell you on behalf of the Iranian people: You’ve made a mistake. ... I said many times from the first day: Don’t trust America.”

Le Drian, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) all said Iran was honouring its commitments under the accord.

“The region deserves better than further destabilisation provoked by American withdrawal,” Le Drian said.

----The European Union said it would ensure sanctions on Iran remain lifted, as long as Tehran meets its commitments.

The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “deeply concerned” by the withdrawal, the RIA news agency said.

Merkel said that while the existing deal should not be called into question, there should be discussion of “a broader deal that goes beyond it”.

British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson spoke of a “follow-on agreement,” but said it was up to Washington to come up with concrete proposals. Macron said he wanted a broader discussion with all relevant parties on the development of Iran’s nuclear programme after 2025, when key elements of the current deal start to expire, as well as Iran’s ballistic missile programme and wider Middle East issues.

Iranian officials will next week meet counterparts from France, Britain and Germany. Khamenei appeared sceptical whether they could deliver: “I don’t trust these three countries.”

----In a sign of what may be in store, Trump’s ambassador to Berlin tweeted within hours of taking up his post that German businesses should halt activities in Iran at once.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the United States should not consider itself the world’s “economic policeman”.

Britain, France and Germany said they would do all they could to protect their business interests in Iran, yet it was unclear how much they can shield firms from U.S. sanctions.

Brussels has a “blocking statute” at its disposal that bans any EU company from complying with U.S. sanctions and does not recognise any court rulings that enforce American penalties.
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Oil rallies by 3% a day after the U.S. announces its exit from the Iran deal

Published: May 9, 2018 3:30 p.m. ET

EIA reports first weekly fall in U.S. crude stocks in 3 weeks

Oil futures jumped nearly 3% on Wednesday, notching another 3 1/2-year high, buoyed by expectations that the U.S. decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions will disrupt the flow of crude in the Middle East.

Adding to bullish sentiment, a government report released Wednesday revealed the first decline in U.S. crude supplies in three weeks.

June West Texas Intermediate crude oil CLM8, +0.80% rallied $2.08, or 3%, to settle at $71.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange—the highest for a front-month contract November 2014. The day’s percentage gain was the largest such rise since April 10, according to FactSet data.

International benchmark July Brent crude LCON8, +0.73% climbed $2.36, or nearly 3.2%, to $77.21 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, also ending at a level last seen in November 2014.

Crude prices have swung wildly in recent days, as investors anticipated U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision on Iran. On Tuesday, Trump said the U.S. will withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimpose “the highest level of economic sanctions” against the country.
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May 9, 2018 / 10:30 PM

Iran targets Israeli bases across Syrian frontier, Israel pounds Syria

JERUSALEM/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Iranian forces in Syria launched a rocket attack on Israeli army bases in the Golan Heights early on Thursday, Israel said, prompting one of the heaviest Israeli barrages in Syria since the conflict there began in 2011.

The attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, just past midnight, marked the first time Iranian forces have hit Israel from Syria, where they have deployed along with Iran-backed Shi’ite militias and Russian troops to support President Bashar al-Assad in the seven-year-old civil war.

Syrian state media said dozens of Israeli missile strikes hit a radar station, Syrian air defence positions and an ammunition dump, underscoring the risks of a wider escalation involving Iran and its regional allies.

Israel said the Iranian salvo of 20 Grad and Fajr rockets were shot down by its Iron Dome air defence system or fell short of the Golan targets. The Quds Force, an external arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, carried out the launch, Israel said.

“It was commanded and ordered by (Quds Force chief General) Qassem Soleimani and its has not achieved its purpose,” military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Jonathan Conricus told reporters.

Israel struck back by destroying dozens of Iranian military sites in Syria, Conricus said, as well as Syrian anti-aircraft units that tried unsuccessfully to shoot down Israeli planes.

“We do not know yet the (Iranian) casualty count,” he said.

“But I can say that in terms of our purpose, we focussed less on personnel and more on capabilities and hardware ... to inflict long-term damage on the Iranian military establishment in Syria. We assess it will take substantial time to replenish.”

Tensions between Israel and Iran had already spilt over in Syria, worrying Russia, which want to stabilise Assad’s rule.

Iran vowed retaliation after a suspected Israeli air strike last month killed seven of its military personnel in a Syrian air base. Israel regards Iran as its biggest threat, and has repeatedly targeted Iranian forces and allied militia in Syria.

Elsewhere, in Tesla car crash news, yet another fatal crash for the financially stressed electric vehicle maker.

Another fatal Tesla crash is subject of U.S. safety probe

Published: May 9, 2018 10:34 p.m. ET

No immediate signs that auto-pilot system was engaged in what is the fourth open federal probe involving one of the company’s vehicles

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla.—A U.S. traffic-safety agency said it would begin examining the fiery crash of a Tesla Inc. Model S car that killed two teenagers here Tuesday evening, marking the fourth active federal probe involving the company’s vehicles.

The National Transportation Safety Board said Wednesday it is initially focusing its latest investigation on the emergency response to the fire created by the electric car’s lithium-ion battery. The agency added that at this time it doesn’t anticipate Tesla’s TSLA, +1.62%   driver-assistance system Autopilot being part of the investigation.

The driver and front-seat passenger of the 2014 Model S sedan were killed after the car veered off the roadway and into a concrete wall, bursting into flames, local police said. A third passenger was ejected from the car and taken to the hospital.

Tesla said it is working with local authorities. It noted that high-speed collisions can result in fire “regardless of the type of car.”

The NTSB, which has no regulatory mandate but has influence over transportation safety, is investigating three other traffic incidents involving Tesla vehicles, including a fatal crash on March 23 that fueled questions about the safety of Autopilot.

Finally, in Brexit news, where there’s a will there’s a way. But is there any will in Dublin and Brussels?

Wednesday 9 May 2018 12:13am

Irish border can be solved with max fac customs proposal, claims Policy Exchange think tank

The Irish border problem can be solved with the "max fac" customs proposal favoured by Brexiters, according to a new paper endorsed by former Northern Ireland minister Lord Trimble.

The “maximum facilitation” - or "max fac" - option would allow so-called trusted traders to cross the Northern Ireland and other EU borders freely, aided by technology. It would reduce customs controls and barriers, making it as frictionless as possible. Goods would be electronically tracked and pre-cleared with tax authorities.

Critics have warned there would need to be tariff checks, meaning it would not solve the thorny Irish border question.

But a new paper published by the Policy Exchange think tank argues that is not the case. A frictionless border "can be achieved by the use of new technology and in the context of a Free Trade Agreement between the UK and EU, in an arrangement that goes beyond the Customs Partnership and in no way threatens the Good Friday Agreement", the report by chief economic adviser Graham Gudgin and former Irish diplomat Ray Bassett argues.

In a foreward to the report, Trimble writes: “Fears over a ‘hard border’ are only as strong as the refusal of those who do not engage with a workable technological solution. Anyone interested in the welfare of the people of Northern Ireland, and indeed the welfare of those in the Republic and EU, should be urging Brussels to seek a free trade agreement with the UK and develop a smart border process.

“Thirty years ago, we found that where there was a will to succeed, to build something better, all obstacles could be overcome. As the heartfelt disappointment of some in response to the Brexit result dissipates, I hope that true friends of Northern Ireland – including the partners in peace all those years ago – will cease the scaremongering and work for a practical, prosperous future.”

Calling for "a recognition of the economic and political reality, and a little good faith", Gudgin stressed there was no reason to believe the Good Friday Agreement would be undermined by such an approach.

“A solution that respects the Brexit referendum and maintains a light-touch border is achievable," he said. "Modern technology means that physical customs posts, or even cameras, are no longer essential at borders. This is the case made by the EU’s own customs expert, Lars Karlsson, who envisages the use of mobile phone and GPS technology to track HGVs, together with the computer-based customs clearing which is the norm across much of the world.
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“You are a slow learner, Winston."
"How can I help it? How can I help but see what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four."
"Sometimes, Winston. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder.

George Orwell 1984.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, no crooks today, we’re taking a break from covering Washington, Westminster, and Brussels.  Today something a little different. While we await the start of the Pacific hurricane season next week, and the Atlantic hurricane season on June one, does planet earth go around in circles or ellipses? The answer is yes.

Rock-solid evidence shows how Earth's eccentric orbit affects climate change

Michael Irving  May 9, 2018
You probably picture the Earth's annual journey around the Sun as being more or less a circle, but that's only true some of the time. Models have long suggested that our home planet's orbit shifts from circular to elliptical and back again over hundreds of thousands of years, which plays a part in natural climate swings. Now, scientists have found the first physical evidence for the cycle, and traced it back to before the dinosaurs.
The Earth goes through regular, large-scale cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, driven by a whole range of factors. Some of the main contributors are what are known as Milankovitch Cycles, along with variations in the Earth's orbital path (cycling every 100,000 years), its axial tilt (on a 41,000-year cycle) and the "wobble" of its spin (on a 23,000-year cycle). These affect how much solar energy hits the Northern Hemisphere at different times of the year, and in turn affect the planet's long-term climate.

But scientists have long suspected another, much longer cycle sits over the top of them. Every 405,000 years or so, the shape of the Earth's orbit shifts from almost perfectly circular to slightly elliptical, thanks to the complex interactions between Earth and other planets, particularly our closest neighbor Venus and the huge gravitational influence of Jupiter. This has been traced back about 50 million years, but with so many moving parts it all gets a bit murky the further back you look.
"There are other, shorter, orbital cycles, but when you look into the past, it's very difficult to know which one you're dealing with at any one time, because they change over time," says Dennis Kent, lead author Dennis Kent, lead author of the study. "The beauty of this one is that it stands alone. It doesn't change. All the other ones move over it."
Previously, this longer cycle has been hypothesized based on calculations of the movements of planets, but now researchers from Columbia University and Rutgers University have found the first physical evidence for it. The team drilled rock cores 1,500 ft (457 m) deep from the Petrified Forest National Park in Arizona, and compared them to similar deep cores from New York and New Jersey.---
----The researchers compared the Arizona cores to those from New York and New Jersey, and lined up the points of pole reversals. Combining both sets of data also showed that they formed at the same time and had similar characteristics that pointed to the influence of a longer-term cycle.

The cycle reared its head in the rocks in the form of alternating, extreme wet and dry periods. Darker layers indicate black shale, formed at the bottom of deep lakes as a result of wetter seasons, while lighter-colored rock indicates much drier conditions. These conditions cycled through every 405,000 years, with the darker/wetter times suggesting the Earth was in a highly-eccentric orbit, while the lighter/drier times represent a smoother, circular path.

The researchers say that this larger-scale cycle doesn't directly affect the Earth's climate – instead, it either strengthens or weakens the effects of the smaller Milankovitch Cycles.

"It's an astonishing result because this long cycle, which had been predicted from planetary motions through about 50 million years ago, has been confirmed through at least 215 million years ago," says Kent. "Scientists can now link changes in the climate, environment, dinosaurs, mammals and fossils around the world to this 405,000-year cycle in a very precise way."

The research was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“Orthodoxy means not thinking–not needing to think. Orthodoxy is unconsciousness.”

George Orwell 1984.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Scientists make strong, super-tough carbon sheets at low temperature

Material's properties exceed those of carbon fiber composites used in aircraft bodies, sports equipment

Date: May 7, 2018

Source: University of Texas at Dallas

Summary: Scientists have developed high-strength, super-tough sheets of carbon that can be inexpensively fabricated at low temperatures. The team made the sheets by chemically stitching together platelets of graphitic carbon, which is in certain ways similar to the graphite found in the soft 'lead' of an ordinary pencil.

An international research team led by scientists at Beihang University in China and The University of Texas at Dallas has developed high-strength, super-tough sheets of carbon that can be inexpensively fabricated at low temperatures.

The team made the sheets by chemically stitching together platelets of graphitic carbon, which is similar to the graphite found in the soft lead of an ordinary pencil. The fabrication process resulted in a material whose mechanical properties exceed those of carbon fiber composites that are currently used in diverse commercial products.

"These sheets might eventually replace the expensive carbon fiber composites that are used for everything from aircraft and automobile bodies to windmill blades and sports equipment," said Dr. Ray Baughman, the Robert A. Welch Distinguished Chair in Chemistry at UT Dallas and director of the Alan G. MacDiarmid NanoTech Institute. Baughman is a corresponding author of an article describing the material published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Today's carbon fiber composites are expensive in part because the carbon fibers are produced at extremely high temperatures, which can exceed 2,500 degrees Celsius (about 4,500 degrees Fahrenheit).

"In contrast, our process can use graphite that is cheaply dug from the ground and processed at temperatures below 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit)," said Dr. Qunfeng Cheng, professor of chemistry at Beihang University and a corresponding author. "The strengths of these sheets in all in-plane directions match that of plied carbon fiber composites, and they can absorb much higher mechanical energy before failing than carbon fiber composites."
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April.

DJIA: 24,163 +255 Down. NASDAQ: 7,066 +282 Down. SP500: 2,648 +188 Down.
All three slow indicators moved down in March and continued down in April. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 

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