Friday, 22 September 2017

Talking The World Into War.



Baltic Dry Index. 1470 +21    Brent Crude 56.44

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.

John Kenneth Galbraith.

Don’t look now, but war on the Korean peninsula seems to be back on again, with President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un both determined to talk themselves into war.  Time for a risk off weekend I think.

September 21, 2017 / 2:47 PM / Updated 15 minutes ago

North Korea may consider H-bomb test in Pacific, Kim calls Trump "deranged"

SEOUL/NEW YORK (Reuters) - North Korea said on Friday it might test a hydrogen bomb on the Pacific Ocean after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to destroy the country, with leader Kim Jong Un promising to make a “mentally deranged” Trump pay dearly for his threats.

Kim, who has traded ever-more heightened rhetoric with Trump, did not specify what his response would be. His comments were believed to be the first direct message ever issued by a North Korean leader.
However, Kim’s foreign minister, Ri Yong Ho, said North Korea could consider a hydrogen bomb test of an unprecedented scale on the Pacific Ocean, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported.

Ri, who was talking to reporters in New York ahead of a planned address later this week, however also said he did not know Kim’s exact thoughts, according to the report.

Japan, the only country ever to suffer an atomic attack, described the threat as “totally unacceptable”.

----Kim said the North would consider the “highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history” against the United States and that Trump’s comments had confirmed his own nuclear programme was “the correct path”.

Pyongyang conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test on Sept. 3 and has launched dozens of missiles this year as it accelerates a programme aimed at enabling it to target the United States with a nuclear-tipped missile.

“I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire,” Kim said in the statement carried by the KCNA state news agency, referring to Trump.
More

September 21, 2017 / 1:58 AM / Updated 2 hours ago

Asia stocks fall, yen and franc gain as North Korea moots H-bomb test

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell and the Japanese yen and Swiss franc gained on the mooted possibility of North Korea conducting another hydrogen bomb test, this time in the Pacific Ocean.
North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said on Friday he believes the North could consider a nuclear test on an “unprecedented scale” in the Pacific Ocean, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS handed back earlier gains and was down 0.4 percent after falling 0.7 percent the previous day.

The index had risen to a decade high on Tuesday, lifted as Wall Street advanced to record levels before falling back after the Fed heightened expectations for a third interest rate hike this year.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 slipped 0.2 percent and Australian stocks advanced 0.2 percent. South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 fell 0.5 percent on the latest bout of geopolitical tensions.

Shanghai .SSEC was down 0.5 percent after S&P Global Ratings downgraded China's long-term sovereign credit rating on Thursday, less than a month ahead of one of the country's most sensitive political gatherings, citing increasing risks from its rapid debt build-up.

----The S&P 500 .SPX lost 0.3 percent, snapping a four-day winning streak.

The Dow .DJI fell 0.25 percent and Nasdaq .IXIC dropped 0.5 percent on Thursday as the U.S. equity market braced for a third interest rate hike this year. The United States ordering new sanctions against North Korea was also seen to have weighed on Wall Street. [.N]
More

We close with the growing crisis in the EUSSR. Spain goes nuclear on Catalonia. The EUSSR remains irrelevant and impotent. Germany votes on Sunday, will the far right surge into parliament. France gets a warning from the IMF. Euros anyone?

September 21, 2017 / 8:21 PM / Updated 10 hours ago

Catalan leader says will proceed with October 1 independence referendum

MADRID (Reuters) - The leader of Catalonia’s regional government, Carles Puigdemont, said on Thursday his administration would push on with a banned Oct. 1 referendum on a split from Spain, in defiance of a court order banning the vote.

“We will do it because we have contingency plans in place to ensure it happens, but above all because it has the support of the immense majority of the population who are sick of the arrogance and abuse of the People’s Party (PP) government,” he said in a televised statement.

The ruling PP government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and major opposition parties in Madrid have declared an independence referendum illegal and against Spain’s constitution.

Spain Hires Cruise Liner to House Police in Rebel Catalonia

By Charles Penty and Maria Tadeo
Spain has discreetly hired ferries to be moored in the Port of Barcelona as temporary housing for possibly thousands of police specially deployed to keep order in rebel Catalonia and help suppress an illegal independence referendum.

The country’s interior ministry asked Catalan port authorities to provide a berth for one ship until Oct. 3 -- two days after the planned vote -- saying it was a matter of state, a spokeswoman for the port said by phone Wednesday. The vessel, known as “Rhapsody,” docked in the city about 9:30 a.m. Thursday, she said.

The aim is to amass more than 16,000 riot police and other security officers by the Oct. 1 referendum, El Correo newspaper reported on its website. That would exceed the number of Catalan police, the Mossos d’Esquadra, who serve both the Catalan and central governments.

Spain is putting more boots on the ground in the northeastern region as it arrests local officials, raids regional-government offices and takes control of payroll administration in the run-up to the referendum. The ballot initiative, passed by the Catalan Parliament and declared illegal by the country’s highest court, has escalated a years-long stand-off between pro-independence campaigners and Spain’s central administration in Madrid.

As well as the “Rhapsody,” with capacity for 2,448 people, the ministry also hired another vessel to dock in Barcelona with a third headed for the port of Tarragona, 100 kilometers (60 miles) west along the coast, El Confidencial website reported.
More

Spain responds to Scottish Government statement on Catalonia

Wednesday 20 September 2017

The Spanish Government has rejected a statement by Scottish ministers over the proposed Catalonian independence referendum. Amid tensions between Madrid and the Catalonian government, people gathered outside a government building in Barcelona after reports 12 officials were arrested (see video).

On October 1, registered voters in Catalonia are due go to the polls to decide whether the region should break away from the rest of Spain. The hugely controversial vote was called by the Catalan assembly - where a majority of representatives are pro-independence - and has not been officially sanctioned by the Spanish government. Cabinet secretary for external affairs Fiona Hyslop said on Sunday “that all peoples have the right to self-determination and to choose the form of government best suited to their needs, a principle which is enshrined in the UN Charter.” She added that the the Edinburgh Agreement was “an example of how two governments, with diametrically opposed views on whether or not Scotland should become independent, were able to come together to agree a process to allow the people to decide. It is essential that democracy and civil rights are respected in all countries.”

But the Spanish Government said the example of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum could not be applied to Catalonia. “Spain cannot apply the United Kingdom’s solution for the Scottish issue: our historical origins and our legal-political systems are different,” a spokesperson for Spain’s ministry of foreign affairs told Buzzfeed News. “Spain has a written constitution, submitted to the vote of all Spaniards in 1978 and approved by 87.7% (and 91.4% of the Catalonian voters), which makes the rules of the game clear. “The Spanish constitution enshrines the Spanish nation as a political and social reality prior to the constitution itself. Therefore, national unity is the basis of our constitution.

There are established procedures to amend the constitution. Therefore, in our legal framework, a referendum in the form proposed by the United Kingdom to Scotland would only be possible if the constitution were amended. “The British case is an exception to an overwhelming majority of written constitutions that do not recognise this possibility. Recent judicial decisions in Germany and Italy have underlined the same constitutional approach as Spain. More concretely, according to Germany’s Supreme Court ‘there is no room under the constitution for individual states to attempt to secede’.”

more
September 21, 2017 / 9:29 AM / Updated 7 hours ago

Fearing far-right surge, Merkel tells Germans to vote on Sunday

BERLIN (Reuters) - Fears in Germany that voter apathy could boost the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Sunday’s election have driven Chancellor Angela Merkel and her main rival in final days of the campaign to urge their backers to go out and vote.

With many voters viewing a fourth term for Merkel as almost inevitable and turned off by a turgid campaign - occasionally punctured by heckling and tomato hurling in protest at Merkel's refugee policy - pollsters say turnout may be low.

A GMS poll on Thursday said those not planning to vote or were undecided numbered 34 percent, higher than the 29 percent who did not vote in the last election in 2013.

“My request to everyone is that they vote, and vote for those parties that adhere 100 percent to our constitution,” Merkel told MDR radio on Thursday, pointing to the AfD which has been likened by some commentators to Hitler’s Nazis.

Some of its members have called for Germans to rewrite the history books on Nazi era and the party has been dogged by rows over Holocaust denial, a crime in Germany.

Although polls show conservative Merkel, trusted by stability-loving Germans to stand up to unpredictable leaders in the United States, Russia and Turkey, is on track to win, the shape of her coalition is wide open.

Most pollsters say a low turnout could boost the AfD which has gained popularity by focussing on migration and security.

Poised to be the first far-right party to enter Germany’s parliament in over half a century, comments by some top members have caused outrage. This month, one leader said Germany should be proud of its soldiers achievements in World War Two.
More

September 20, 2017 / 7:01 PM / a day ago

Vote plus marathon spells super-busy Sunday for Berlin police

BERLIN (Reuters) - More than 1,500 police will be on duty in Berlin on Sunday, when Germany’s capital faces the logistical challenge of organising an election expected to draw a large turnout - while ensuring its annual marathon also runs smoothly.

Police, election officials and race organisers have been in close consultations about security arrangements, especially following a deadly truck rampage on a Berlin Christmas market last December as well as an attack on the Boston marathon in 2013.

Officials with the Berlin police and the BKA Federal Criminal Police Office said they had no indications of any specific plots to attack either the race or the city’s 1,779 polling stations.

Berlin’s state election office said letters had been sent to around 44,000 of the city’s 2.5 million eligible voters warning that some 30 stations might be difficult to reach because of the marathon.

The marathon is expected to end in early afternoon, while polls close at 6 p.m. local time.

Voter participation is expected to exceed the 72.5 percent of 2013 largely due to a referendum about the fate of Berlin’s Tegel airport that served the city through the Cold War.

“Voter participation was already relatively high in 2013, but we think it will be even higher this year because of high interest in the Tegel referendum,” a spokesman said.

September 21, 2017 / 3:33 PM / Updated 15 hours ago

IMF tells France to spell out spending cuts

PARIS (Reuters) - France must lose no time spelling out detailed plans to rein in spending, which will make or break President Emmanuel Macron’s plans for overhauling the economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

The IMF will scrutinise the government’s 2018 budget due next Wednesday, the first of Macron’s presidency, for details on how it will cut spending and taxes at the same time, IMF France mission chief Christian Mumssen said.

“For the overall strategy to work you really need comprehensive spending reforms at all levels of government and you need to move on this very early,” Mumssen said on a conference call presenting an annual in-depth report on France.

The government has said it aims to cut spending by 16 billion euros (£14.12 billion) next year as a first instalment in 60 billion euros in savings over the duration of Macron’s five-year term.

However, the government also wants to move quickly on easing France’s considerable tax burden starting with tax cuts worth 10 billion euros also next year.

Helping to ease the difficult budget balancing act, the government can count on the strongest growth since 2011 with the IMF forecasting the economy would grow 1.6 percent this year and 1.8 percent next year.

The government has said that its budget will be based on a growth forecast both this year and next of 1.7 percent.

The IMF was less optimistic about the outlook for the public sector deficit, estimating that it would stand at 3.0 percent of economic output both this year and next.

Sipping scotch all day, He hated Mrs May, And simply got drunk and drunker.

Anon.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, more on China’s debt riddled wobbly economy. S&P loses faith in China’s plan.

S&P Cuts China’s Credit Rating, Citing Risk From Debt Growth

Bloomberg News
21 September 2017, 10:02 GMT+1 21 September 2017, 10:34 GMT+1
S&P Global Ratings cut China’s sovereign credit rating for the first time since 1999, citing the risks from soaring debt, and revised its outlook to stable from negative.

The sovereign rating was cut by one step, to A+ from AA-, the agency said in a statement late Thursday. The analysts also lowered their rating on three foreign banks that primarily operate in China, saying HSBC China, Hang Seng China and DBS Bank China Ltd. are unlikely to avoid default should the nation default on its sovereign debt.

“China’s prolonged period of strong credit growth has increased its economic and financial risks,” S&P said. “Although this credit growth had contributed to strong real GDP growth and higher asset prices, we believe it has also diminished financial stability to some extent.”

The downgrade, the second by a major ratings company this year, represents ebbing international confidence China can strike a balance between maintaining economic growth and cleaning up its financial sector. The move may also be uncomfortable for Communist Party officials, who are just weeks away from their twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle.

The cut will “have a relatively big impact on Chinese enterprises since corporate ratings can’t be higher than the sovereign rating,” said Xia Le, an economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Hong Kong. “It will affect corporate financing.”

Moody’s Investors Service cut its rating on the world’s second-biggest economy to A1 from Aa3 in May, citing similar concerns over economy-wide debt and effects on state finances.

“The market has already speculated S&P may cut soon after Moody’s downgraded,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. “This isn’t so surprising.”
September 22, 2017 / 3:52 AM / Updated 9 minutes ago

S&P says downgraded China as credit growth still too fast

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s attempts to reduce risks from its rapid buildup in debt are not working as quickly as expected and credit growth is still too fast, S&P Global Ratings said on Friday, a day after it downgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating.

While S&P warned months ago that a cut may be on the cards, it said it decided to make the call after concluding that China’s “de-risking” drive that started early this year was having less of an impact on credit growth than initially expected.

“Despite the fact that the government has shown greater resolve to implement the deleveraging policy, we continue to see overall credit in the corporate sector to stay at a 9 percent point”, Kim Eng Tan, an S&P senior director of sovereign ratings, said in a conference call to discuss the one-notch downgrade to A+ from AA-.

“We’ve now come to the conclusion that while we do expect some deleveraging in the next few years, this deleveraging is likely to be much more gradual than we thought could have been the case early this year.”

Tan said broader lending by all financial institutions, excluding equity fund-raising, has started to rise after growing by a relatively steady 12-13 percent in the last few years.

“That was the key metric that we look at in terms of assessing credit growth and we believe while this growth of aggregate debt financing could come down somewhat over the next few years, it’s not likely to come down very sharply.”

----China’s banks extended a record 12.65 trillion yuan ($1.84 trillion) of loans in 2016, roughly the size of Italy’s economy. TSF was a record 17.8 trillion yuan ($2.70 trillion).
More

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Solar storage home battery system sales rise in wake of power price hikes: report

KAREN COLLIER, CONSUMER REPORTER, Herald Sun September 19, 2017 11:00am
HOUSEHOLDS desperate to protect themselves from electricity price spikes are installing batteries to store solar power at rapidly rising rates.

About 7000 home battery systems were sold across Australia in the first half of this year — compared with 6500 for all of last year — a solar energy report estimates.

Batteries allow solar panelled homes to draw on stored energy at night when the sun is not shining, reducing reliance on the grid.

“It’s a way to give the middle finger to electricity companies,” SunWiz founder and report author Warwick Johnston said.

Victoria was the third-fastest hotspot with 12 per cent of installations, behind New South Wales and Queensland.

While the market had already doubled in two years, Mr Johnston said households were holding off until batteries became more affordable.

Typical costs now were $4500 to $12,000, depending on size. Currently in Melbourne, it takes about eight years to a decade for a combined battery and new solar panel system to pay for itself through lower power bills.

“It’s not economically viable for most people yet but that will soon change,” Mr Johnston said.

“There are predictions we are going to see the price coming down by 30 per cent in the next three years with more scale of operation and innovation.

“It’s like digital cameras. They were once the realm of the ultra rich, and now everyone has one on their phone.”

About half of all solar panel customers were expected to have batteries by 2030.
More

Another weekend and our world seems to have gone mad. The USA and North Korea seem determined to talk themselves into nuclear war. The EUSSR is in its usual state of disarray and rule bending, with Spain seemingly getting ready to tear itself apart in eight days time.  In Florence later today, HMG’s snake bit Prime Minister is to deliver a speech mostly irrelevant to the bureaucrats in Brussels intent on trying to wreck Brexit.  In the Atlantic we have hurricanes galore, likely wrecking much of the winter tourist season. But here in the northern hemisphere, we have reached the autumn equinox. It all gets darker and colder from here. Have a great weekend everyone.

Freedom is the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.

George Orwell.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August

DJIA: 21,948 +215 Up. NASDAQ:  6,429 +266 Up. SP500: 2,472 +174 Up.

No comments:

Post a Comment