Baltic Dry Index. 1470 +21 Brent Crude 56.80
"We
decide on something, leave it lying around, and wait and see what happens. If
no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don't understand what has been
decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back."
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of
Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. European Commission President. Scotch
connoisseur.
The EUSSR seems to be disintegrating before
our eyes. Great Britain is already in the door marked exit, leaving with or
without a deal. Yesterday in Germany, the two leading parties were trounced by
the voters, though for very different reasons. The anti-immigrant right wing
AfD party surged. Chancellor Merkel will continue on in office, but like Prime
Minister May in GB, barely in power.
Spain seems to be returning to Francoism, in
a doomed attempt to force Catalonia to remain a part of Spain. Spain might
succeed in forcing no referendum on secession on October 1, but at what cost?
Catalonia provides 20 percent of Spain’s GDP. Catalan’s can financially cripple
Spain in retaliation, and engage in a long term campaign of increasing civil
disobedience. Spain is heading down a lose-lose road.
In Italy, the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement
party, elected a new youthful leader and began preparing for next year’s
elections. The Party is currently leading in most of the polls.
Below, euros anyone? Will Germany even have a coalition government by the time Great Britain exits the insane asylum?
Merkel Lands Fourth Term, But at What Cost?
Angela Merkel will serve as Germany's chancellor for a fourth term, but Sunday's win comes at a high price. The right-wing populists are now the third-strongest party in parliament and her negotiations to create a new government are likely to be complicated.
September 25, 2017 12:02 AM
Angela
Merkel's election result four years ago was, to be sure, extraordinary. It was
clear from the surveys that her conservatives wouldn't be able to repeat it.
But a fall like this? Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its
Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union (CSU) saw their joint result fall
by more than eight percentage points -- their worst showing since 1949. During
her first appearance after the election at her party's headquarters, the
chancellor said she had, in fact, hoped for a somewhat better result. Those
gathered at the headquarters dutifully chanted, "Angie, Angie."
Then
things grew quiet again.
---- Merkel can keep her job as chancellor, the "strategic goal" has been achieved, as Merkel refers to it. But it comes at a high price. Voters have severely punished the parties of the current governing coalition, with Merkel's conservatives losing dozens of seats in parliament. The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) will now enter parliament with a strong, double-digit result. And it will be extremely difficult for Merkel to build a government coalition that will be stable for the next four years.
The AfD: There won't just be a sprinkling of renegades representing the AfD in
parliament. The right-wing populists will be the third-largest party in the
Bundestag and they have announced their intention to "chase down" the
chancellor as one of the party's two leading candidates expressed it on Sunday.
The election campaign already gave a taste of what might be coming, with AfD
supporters loudly venting their hatred and anger at events held by Merkel's
CDU.
Merkel, who
isn't known for being the world's best public speaker, will now be confronted
by them on a daily basis. And the conservatives will also have to ask
themselves what share of the responsibility they carry for the AfD's success.
What can they do to win back disappointed voters? More than a million voters
are believed to have flocked from the CDU and the CSU to the AfD. And most of
them say that it was the chancellor's refugee policies that led them to vote
for the right-wing competition.
More
September 23, 2017 / 11:31 PM /
Updated 6 hours ago
Merkel hangs on to power but bleeds support to surging far right
BERLIN (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel won a fourth term in
office on Sunday but Europe’s most powerful leader will have to govern with a
far less stable coalition in a fractured parliament after her conservatives
haemorrhaged support to a surging far right.
Two years after Merkel left German borders open to more than 1 million
migrants, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) stunned the
establishment by becoming the first far-right party to enter parliament in more
than half a century.
The AfD won 13.0 percent of the vote - more than expected and one of
many shocks on a night of drama that saw Merkel’s conservatives get their worst
result since 1949, and her main Social Democrat (SPD) rivals their worst since
1933.
Describing the far right’s
success as a test for Germans, Merkel insisted she had a mandate to govern - a
formidable challenge as she has little choice but to cobble together a
three-way coalition with a pro-business group and the Greens.
---- The euro EUR=E4 slipped around 0.4 percent in early Asian trading as it became clear the results would make forming a coalition tricky for Merkel.
Coalition building could take months as Merkel’s only straightforward
path to a majority in parliament would be a three-way tie-up with the liberal
Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens - an arrangement untested at national
level.
---- The Social Democrats, who have served with Merkel’s conservatives as junior partners in a “grand coalition” for the past four years, won just 20.6 percent of the vote, as nearly half of voters repudiated the two parties that have dominated Germany since World War Two.
SPD leader Martin Schulz said the party would refuse to rejoin a
coalition and instead take up its position as the main opposition. The Social
Democrats appear to have been hurt badly by being in government, making it
difficult to distinguish themselves from Merkel’s conservatives.
---- Sunday’s election, fought against the tense backdrop of surging support for far left and far right parties across Europe, delivered a fractured German parliament with six party groups, up from four previously.
Josef Joffe, publisher-editor of Germany weekly Die Zeit, said the vote
marked a “tectonic shift in German politics” and that the three-way coalition
Merkel looks likely to try to forge will be “highly unstable”.
More
Catalonia's Separatists Defy Spain With Ballots for Vote
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS (JOSEPH WILSON)
Barcelona, Spain (AP) -- The grassroots groups driving Catalonia's
separatist movement defied Spanish authorities on Sunday by distributing one
million ballots for an Oct. 1 independence vote that the central government in
Madrid has called illegal and vowed to halt.
Jordi Cuixart, president of the separatist group Omnium Cultural,
announced the ballots were being distributed during a rally in Barcelona.
"Here are the packs of ballots that we ask you to hand out across
Catalonia," Cuixart said.
Spanish police have confiscated millions of ballots in recent days as
part of a crackdown to stop the Oct. 1 vote, which has been suspended by Spain's
Constitutional Court. Around a dozen regional Catalan officials were arrested
Wednesday, provoking a wave of protests across the prosperous northeastern
region.
Catalonia's separatists have pledged to hold the vote regardless of the
central government's wishes and rallied Sunday in public squares in Barcelona
and other towns in the region. Many carried pro-independence flags and signs
calling for the independence vote and urging the "Yes" side to
victory.
The crowds were asked by secessionist politicians and grassroots groups
to also print and distribute posters supporting the vote.
"I ask you to go out and vote! Vote for the future of
Catalonia!" Carme Forcadell, the speaker of Catalonia's regional
parliament, told a Barcelona crowd.
Polls show the 7.5 million residents of Catalonia are roughly split on
breaking with the rest of Spain.
Spain ramps up efforts to quash Catalonia referendum
Madrid and Barcelona authorities battle over which of them
control of regional police force
Yesterday by Michael Stothard in
Madrid
Spain's central government and regional
Catalan authorities were battling at the weekend over control of the regional police
force in a dispute seen as central to the fate of the Catalonian independence
referendum on October 1. The Spanish courts have ruled the vote illegal, and
the Catalan police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra, is expected to work alongside
thousands of state police, brought especially to the region, to prevent it. The
Spanish interior ministry told all local and national police forces on Saturday
they had been temporarily placed under a single chain of command reporting
directly to the interior ministry in Madrid. The ministry would directly
co-ordinate all police operations in Catalonia as the government prepares to
forcibly prevent the referendum. But the pro-independence Catalan regional
government has said it will not comply with the ruling, opening up another
front in a rapidly escalating conflict between Madrid and Catalonia that
threatens to turn into an acute constitutional crisis.
“We do not accept this interference of the
state, jumping over all existing co-ordination mechanisms,” said Joaquim Forn,
Catalan interior minister, adding that the police “will not renounce exercising
their functions in loyalty to the Catalan people”. As thousands of Catalan
separatists rallied across Barcelona and other towns on Sunday, it was not
clear whether the regional administration could legally oppose the move.
Spanish law allows for state police to lead over local police in a joint
operation. But the rejection — and what Madrid does next — raises fundamental
questions about the influence the Spanish state has in Catalonia.
The Spanish interior ministry said the
prosecutor’s request did not mean the national government was “taking command”
of the Mossos but that the move was designed to enhance co-ordination. But in
Barcelona it was seen as a way of taking effective control of the autonomous
force, with some saying it echoed the move made by Spanish dictator Francisco
Franco to abolish it. Josep Lluis Trapero, Catalan police chief, had also
rejected giving up control to the central government, according to Mr Forn.
More
September 24, 2017 / 4:14 PM /
Updated 13 hours ago
I'm no populist, says new leader of Italy's 5-Star
RIMINI, Italy (Reuters) - The new leader of Italy’s anti-establishment
5-Star movement says it is not a populist party and will make cutting waste and
reducing debt its priority.
5-Star, which leads most opinion polls ahead of national elections due
early next year, has been trying to shed its maverick, populist image and
reassure foreign capitals that it can be trusted with power.
Luigi Di Maio, the 31-year-old lawmaker picked on Saturday to lead the
movement, told Reuters on Sunday that 5-Star stood for “post ideological”
common sense, and was opposed to right-wing and left-wing extremism.
“I reject populism as a label for 5-Star,” he said in an interview on
the sidelines of the party’s annual gathering in Rimini, on the Adriatic coast.
5-Star, founded by comedian Beppe Grillo nine years ago as a protest
movement, bases its appeal mainly on opposition to corruption and vested
interests.
Boyish-looking and usually immaculately turned out in suit and tie, Di
Maio presents a more moderate image than Grillo, who is famous for raucous
tirades against the ruling elite.
He had been groomed for the leadership by Grillo, who is 69 and now
plans to withdraw gradually from his figurehead role.
Di Maio said many of the party’s proposals, such as a public bank to
fund investments, had been adopted with success by mainstream parties in
Northern Europe which he wanted to emulate.
----
Asked to name three priorities that would mark his leadership of the party, Di
Maio listed universal income support for the poor, cutting wasteful public
spending and increasing forms of direct democracy.
More
In bubble markets news, we all know how it ends, just
not when or why.
One chart shows all the bubbles that are about to pop
Published: Sept 22, 2017 10:17 a.m. ET
The Everything Bubble is about to deflate, says Jared Dillian
It wasn’t always this way. We never used to get a giant, speculative bubble every seven to eight years. We really didn’t.In 2000, we had the dot-com bubble.
In 2007, we had the housing bubble.
In 2017, we have the everything bubble.
I did not coin the term “the everything bubble.” I do not know who did. Apologies (and much respect) to the person I stole it from.
Why do we call it the everything bubble? Well, there is a bubble in a bunch of asset classes simultaneously.
And the infographic below that my colleagues at Mauldin Economics created paints the picture best.
I don’t usually predict downturns, but this time I bet my reputation that a downturn is coming. And soon.
When there’s nothing left but systemic risk, everyone’s portfolio is on the line. To that end, I’ve put together a FREE actionable special, Investing in the Age of the Everything Bubble, in which I discuss ways to prepare for the coming bloodbath. Download it.
Jared Dillian is a former Lehman Brothers head of ETF trading
who has traded through two bear markets. He says a downturn is coming soon and
elaborates in this free special report.
We end with GB’s communist unions threatening
travel chaos. Few will see this as another unintended consequence of the Great
Nixonian Error of fiat money, which destroyed hard money, replaced by soft
printable money on demand. Under gambling mad, crony bankster capitalism, the
one percent thrived or got bailed out. Much of the 99 percent got austerity,
whether they approved of gambling bankster capitalism or not. Now the New
Communist Labour Party’s backers, want their pound of flesh. After all, it’s
not real money any more, merely fiat money created at the push of a central
bankster button, and there’s plenty more where that comes from.
Graeme.
Transport chaos looms as rail unions widen strikes over driver-only trains
Carefully planned walkouts will cause commuter misery next month, as the government and train operators try to save money
Saturday 23 September 2017 16.00 BST
Pity British commuters this autumn. In southern England, Merseyside, East Anglia and the east coast main line they will face a wave of disruption after strikes were announced for Tuesday 3 October and Thursday 5 October. London Underground will also face disruption on the later date.
Privately, the rail workers’ union, the RMT, and drivers’ union Aslef believe they can win improved pay and conditions for their members and ensure the safety of the travelling public as rail firms attempt to introduce trains without guards.
This could all be in place by now, they argue, if the government – and in particular, transport secretary Chris Grayling – had given rail firms a free hand to negotiate. But according to the RMT, the rail workers’ union, the “dead hand” of Grayling has halted progress.
RMT and Aslef are used to fighting disputes in the public eye and the walkouts have been meticulously planned for maximum political effect. They will coincide with the Conservative party’s annual conference in Manchester and follow proposed action by public sector unions including the PCS and the POA over the government’s refusal to lift the pay cap.
These disputes also underline how difficult it is to modernise industries when technological progress appears to pose a direct threat to jobs. Industrial action is planned at Southern Rail, Merseyrail, Arriva Rail North and Greater Anglia in a row over the introduction of driver-only operated trains. The abolition of conductors is deemed unacceptable by rail unions, who are well aware that driverless trains could be the next development.
An RMT spokesman said that after Southern Rail, Merseyrail, Arriva Rail North and Greater Anglia failed to engage properly in talks, he suspected the involvement of the transport secretary: “We believe that the dead hand of Chris Grayling has been at work. This is not normal in terms of industrial relations. Our belief is that it is politically driven by the DfT.”
More
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today the people’s paradise of Europe.
The Official European Joke
European paradise:
You are invited to an official lunch. You are welcomed by an Englishman.
Food is prepared by a Frenchman and an Italian puts you in the mood and
everything is organised by a German.
European hell:
You are invited to an official lunch. You are welcomed by a Frenchman.
Food is prepared by an Englishman, German puts you in the mood but, don’t
worry, everything is organised by an Italian.
That joke was proposed by a Belgian as the Official European Joke, the
joke that every single European pupil should learn at school. The Joke will
improve the relationship between the nations as well as promote our self humour
and our culture.
The European Council met in order to make a decision. Should the joke be
the Official European Joke or not?
The British representative announced, with a very serious face and
without moving his jaw, that the joke was absolutely hilarious.
The French one protested because France was depicted in a bad way in the
joke. He explained that a joke cannot be funny if it is against France.
Poland also protested because they were not depicted in the joke.
Luxembourg asked who would hold the copyright on the joke. The Swedish
representative didn’t say a word, but looked at everyone with a twisted smile.
Denmark asked where the explicit sexual reference was. If it is a joke,
there should be one, shouldn’t there?
Holland didn’t get the joke, while Portugal didn’t understand what a
« joke » was. Was it a new concept?
Spain explained that the joke is funny only if you know that the lunch
was at 13h, which is normally breakfast time. Greece complained that they were
not aware of that lunch, that they missed an occasion to have some free food,
that they were always forgotten. Romania then asked what a « lunch »
was.
Lithuania et Latvia complained that their translations were inverted,
which is unacceptable even if it happens all the time. Slovenia told them that
its own translation was completely forgotten and that they do not make a fuss.
Slovakia announced that, unless the joke was about a little duck and a plumber,
there was a mistake in their translation. The British representative said that
the duck and plumber story seemed very funny too.
Hungary had not finished reading the 120 pages of its own translation
yet.
Then, the Belgian representative asked if the Belgian who proposed the
joke was a Dutch speaking or a French speaking Belgian. Because, in one case,
he would of course support a compatriot but, in the other case, he would have
to refuse it, regardless of the quality of the joke.
To close the meeting, the German representative announced that it was
nice to have the debate here in Brussels but that, now, they all had to make
the train to Strasbourg in order to take a decision. He asked that someone to
wake up the Italian, so as not to miss the train, so they can come back to
Brussels and announce the decision to the press before the end of the day.
« What decision? » asked the Irish representative.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
September 21, 2017 / 5:11 PM
Daimler to invest $1 billion in Alabama plant, create over 600 jobs
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s Daimler (DAIGn.DE) said it will invest $1 billion to expand its U.S.-based Mercedes-Benz plant in Alabama to start building electric sport-utility vehicles there from about 2020.More than 600 new jobs will be created as part of the investment, which includes plans to build a facility in 2018 near the factory in Tuscaloosa to produce batteries for zero-emission vehicles, Daimler said on Thursday, confirming a Reuters story.
Stuttgart-based Daimler is joining a rush to add car-making capacity in the world’s most profitable vehicle market that most analysts and industry executives expect to contract moderately over the next several years.
How Electric Cars Can Create the Biggest Disruption Since the iPhone
By Jess Shankleman and Hayley Warren
22 September 2017, 00:01 GMT+1 22 September 2017, 13:00
GMT+1
It’s been 10 years since Apple Inc. unleashed a surge of
innovation that upended the mobile phone industry. Electric cars, with a little
help from ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could be about to pull the
same trick on Big Oil.The rise of Tesla Inc. and its rivals could be turbo charged by complementary services from Uber Technologies Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo unit, just as the iPhone rode the app economy and fast mobile internet to decimate mobile phone giants like Nokia Oyj.
The culmination of these technologies — autonomous electric cars available on demand — could transform how people travel and confound predictions that battery-powered vehicles will have a limited impact on oil demand in the coming decades.
“Electric cars on their own may not add up to much,” David Eyton, head of technology at London-based oil giant BP Plc, said in an interview. “But when you add in car sharing, ride pooling, the numbers can get significantly greater.”
Most forecasters see the shift away from oil in transport as an incremental process guided by slow improvements in the cost and capacity of batteries and progressive tightening of emissions standards. But big economic shifts are rarely that straightforward, said Tim Harford, the economist behind a book and BBC radio series on historic innovations that disrupted the economy.
Systemic Change
“These things are a lot more complicated,” he said. Rather than electric motors gradually replacing internal combustion engines within the existing model, there’s probably going to be “some degree of systemic change.”That’s what happened 10 years ago. The iPhone didn’t just offer people a new way to make phone calls; it created an entirely new economy for multibillion-dollar companies like Angry Birds maker Rovio Entertainment Oy or WhatsApp Inc. The fundamental nature of the mobile phone business changed and incumbents like Nokia and BlackBerry Ltd. were replaced by Apple and makers of Android handsets like Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
----One key advantage of electric cars is the lack of mechanical complexity, which makes them more suitable for the heavy use allowed by driverless technology, Francesco Starace, chief executive officer of Enel SpA, Italy’s largest utility, said in an interview. “I don’t see driverless being pushed into internal combustion engine” vehicles, he said.
After disassembling General Motors’s Chevrolet Bolt, UBS Group AG concluded it required almost no maintenance, with the electric motor having just three moving parts compared with 133 in a four-cylinder internal combustion engine.
“Competitiveness very much depends on the utilization of the car,” Laszlo Varro, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, said in an interview. The average Uber vehicle covers a third more distance than the typical middle-class family car in Europe, amplifying the benefit of lower running costs to the point that “the oil price at which it makes sense to switch to electric is $30 per barrel lower,” he said.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 21,948 +215 Up. NASDAQ: 6,429 +266 Up. SP500: 2,472 +174 Up.
Hello,
ReplyDeleteIf no one kicks up a fuss, because most people don't understand what has been decided, we continue step by step until there is no turning back."
Catalan’s can financially cripple Spain in retaliation, and engage in a long term campaign of increasing civil disobedience. Spain is heading down a lose-lose road.Iwith agree your post .Thanks for sharing your post...
http://onedaytop.com/leonardo-dicaprio-promises-20m-handle-environmental-change/