Thursday, 7 September 2017

A Trifecta of Hurricanes.



Baltic Dry Index. 1250 +35    Brent Crude 54.05

We pay the debts of the last generation, by issuing bonds payable by the next generation."

Dr. Laurence J. Peter, author, The Peter Principle.

You wait months or even years for a hurricane to come along, and then four come along in quick succession. Right now the America’s have three to be concerned about.

We open today with the bad news that there are now two hurricanes in the Atlantic, and one in the Gulf of Mexico, though it’s hurricane Irma at present doing all the damage, and still on track to reach Florida late on Sunday. South Texas residents though will be closely watching Gulf of Mexico hurricane Katia, and praying it heads somewhere, anywhere, else.

Below, the story likely to dominate most of today’s mainstream news.

Hurricane Irma slams Caribbean islands as two other hurricanes churn in Atlantic

Published: Sept 6, 2017 11:41 p.m. ET

Irma hammers Puerto Rico; Katia, Jose upgraded to hurricanes on Wednesday

Hurricane Irma, one of the most powerful Atlantic storms on record, made its first landfall early Wednesday in the northeast Caribbean, hammered Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and remained on track to hit Florida on Sunday.

Irma, a Category 5 hurricane — the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson scale — came ashore with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and passed over St. Martin and Anguilla, the most northerly of the Leeward Islands.

At least three deaths have been blamed on the storm, including one on the small island of Barbuda, which suffered severe damage and saw 90% of its structures destroyed, Barbuda and Antigua Prime Minister Gaston Browne said Wednesday. One death each was confirmed on the nearby islands of St. Barts and St. Martin, though the death toll is likely to rise as recovery efforts begin.

Late Wednesday, powerful winds and rain lashed Puerto Rico, though the island avoided a direct hit as the eye moved northwest about 50 miles offshore. “There is pretty significant damage already done,” Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told CNN. Nearly 900,000 people were reportedly without power, and the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority gave a stunning warning Wednesday that parts of the island could be without electricity for up to six months.

The storm is expected to head toward the Bahamas and Cuba next.

Irma is still a threat to Florida and is expected to move west-northwestward in the next two days, said the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Computer models suggest the storm will track over and/or west of Florida.

“Direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and rainfall are possible in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula beginning later this week and this weekend,” the NHC said in an advisory. “However, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges, it is too soon to specify the location and magnitude of these impacts.”

---- Adding to the gloom, Tropical Storm Jose was upgraded to a hurricane on Wednesday, churning right behind Irma. Katia, churning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, was also upgraded to a hurricane on Wednesday.

Jose currently has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, according to the NHC, which is cautioning people in the Leeward Islands to monitor its progress.

Hurricane Katia also has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, according to the NHC, and Mexico has issued a hurricane watch for coast of parts of the state of Veracruz. Katia was expected to begin a southwest drift on Thursday, the NHC said.
More

In other news, with troubles piling up everywhere from North Korea to NAFTA, President Trump punted his debt ceiling problem out to mid-December. One problem too many in the circumstances. In reality though, any relief rally is likely to be overwhelmed by the hurricanes and North Korea, if President Trump goes through with his threat to punish states trading with North Korea, that is China.

South Korea leads gains in Asia as markets rebound

Published: Sept 6, 2017 10:57 p.m. ET

Investors encouraged by Trump’s debt-ceiling deal with Democrats

Asian equities bounced back on Thursday, tracking overnight U.S. gains following a deal to extend the federal government’s borrowing limit for three months.

Recent tensions in the Korean Peninsula were a trigger for investors to take profit from this year’s robust gains, with stock indexes in markets like Hong Kong, South Korea, India and Singapore notching double-digit increases.

Korea’s Kospi SEU, +1.10%   led gains, rising 1.2%, as attention — for now — shifted away from North Korea. The rebound came after five consecutive trading sessions in the red, to mark its longest losing streak since April. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.11%   was up 0.5% as trading began, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index STI, -0.01%   added 0.4%.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks rose after President Donald Trump backed a deal with congressional Democrats to attach hurricane relief money to a three-month extension of both government funding and the debt limit.

The surprise deal suggests Trump could show more flexibility on other spending initiatives with the Democrats, analysts say.

“Investors responded to the reduction in short-term uncertainty,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets. However, he said the deal is a short-term fix, and will add pressure on the government as the new deadline of Dec. 15 looms.
More

Next, the ECB is expected to announce later today, when it will start tightening and how. The Great Multi Decade Bond Bubble is coming to its long overdue end.

When Will the ECB Pull Its Trillions From the Markets?

By Jana Randow, Jeremy Scott Diamond and Hayley Warren
After three years of asset purchases, negative interest rates and cheap loans, the European Central Bank is finally confident that it has beaten the risk of deflation in the euro area. Now it’s time to start thinking about how to unwind those extraordinary measures.

It won’t be simple. The ECB’s mandate is to keep inflation just below 2 percent, but to judge its progress it looks at a range of key economic and market indicators.

Policy makers will start to discuss the future path of quantitative easing at their Sept. 7 meeting and are widely expected to announce in October that asset purchases will be reduced early next year. Click through the timeline to see how key indicators have weighed on the central bank.
More

Draghi Kicks Off the QE Exit Debate He Has Long Sought to Avoid

By Alessandro Speciale and Carolynn Look
Mario Draghi is finally having the talk he has long sought to avoid.

The European Central Bank president opened a debate about the future path of stimulus on Wednesday after the Governing Council was presented with various scenarios for winding down asset purchases, according to people familiar with the matter. 

For months, Draghi put off a discussion, concerned about low inflation and wary of market turmoil at any hint of an exit. Now, as the risk increases that leaving a decision too late makes investors jumpy, the challenge is to find a way to begin dialing down quantitative easing while providing assurance that any moves will be gradual.

In starting the debate on policy normalization, Draghi followed through on a July pledge to start talks in the fall. Still a formal announcement on the next step may not come before the October meeting.

“They are entering a decision-making phase,” said Bjoern Eberhardt, head of global macro analysis at Credit Suisse in Zurich. “There are a lot of aspects that need to be looked at -- there’s also the problem of bond scarcity, which will become an issue towards the middle of next year.”

The ECB will announce its decisions on interest rates and asset purchases at 1:45 p.m. Frankfurt time on Thursday. With economists predicting no change in those instruments, the focus will be on any alteration to forward guidance. Draghi will speak to reporters 45 minutes later, when he’ll elaborate on the decision and reveal updated economic forecasts.
More

Up next, better news for the UK’s North Sea oil sector. But “must try harder,” is the judgement of mega giants BP and Shell.

The North Sea must ‘earn its right to grow’, says Shell boss

 5 September 2017 • 12:20pm
The North Sea still has the support of supermajors BP and Royal Dutch Shell but the basin will need to earn its right to grow within a rapidly changing energy landscape, oil bosses have warned.
Oil industry heavyweights have converged on Aberdeen this week for a conference focused on the future of the North Sea as oil majors shift their portfolios towards low cost oil, petroleum products, gas and even renewables.

Ben Van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said the Anglo-Dutch group is still committed to the basin after its $3bn sell-off to private equity backed Chrysaor, but added that the North Sea needs to “earn its right to grow” amid “challenging times” for the oil and gas sector.
The North Sea was hard hit by the recent oil price crash due to higher costs. In the wake of the downturn oil producers in the region will need to adapt to a lower range of oil market prices and slow but steady shift towards lower carbon energy options.
BP boss Bob Dudley told the conference that “renewables are knocking at the door in terms of cost competitiveness”.

“Renewables have long been a part of the portfolio for a lot of international oil companies,
and that is expected to grow and diversify as new opportunities come along, particularly for
BP in terms of ‘bio’ for fuels and feedstocks,” he said.

Both the BP boss and Shell chief executive Ben Van Beurden said the shift towards lower carbon options will not rule out oil and gas in the years ahead, but the North Sea must innovate to earn a role within this energy future.

“The world needs renewables. But renewables produce electricity and electricity is less than 20pc of the world’s energy system,” said Mr Van Beurden.

“The world needs battery electric cars. They are on our roads already and we need many more of them. But batteries are not the answer for every road journey, let alone for shipping, freight or air travel,” he added.

“The energy transition to a low carbon future will happen. It has to. But it will take time to happen. It will take generations to happen. And the world still needs oil. It still needs gas,” he said.

Mr Dudley added that the North Sea will continue to have a bright future if it can follow the lead of the US shale industry which has a firm grasp on technological innovation which has helped the sector emerge from the oil market crash.

He said the North Sea will need to do the same in order to do “more with less”, focus on growth areas such as gas, fuels and lubricants, and develop closer industry partnerships.

“In recent years we’ve seen how the onshore industry in the US has reinvented itself.
More
In Asian war news, everyone but Bloomberg are watching North Korea. Bloomberg are watching the South China Sea. How many wars can President Trump fight at the same time? North Korea, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Venezuela, Russia and China?

As World Watches Kim, China Quietly Builds South China Sea Clout

By Jason Koutsoukis and Dan Murtaugh
As Kim Jong Un’s antics in North Korea capture global attention, China is quietly moving to bolster its grip on disputed territory in the South China Sea.

Last month, a Philippine lawmaker released photos he said showed Chinese fishing, coast guard and navy vessels surrounding a Philippine-occupied isle in the Spratly island chain, preventing planned repairs to a runway. Vietnam in July halted drilling in an area leased to Spain’s Repsol S.A, amid reports it did so under Chinese duress.

The incidents suggest China is taking advantage of a perceived U.S. vacuum on Southeast Asia under President Donald Trump, whose administration has focused on Chinese trade tensions and North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests.

While the U.S. is still doing what it calls "freedom of navigation" naval operations in the South China Sea, testing China’s claims to exclusive access -- it plans to conduct two to three such maneuvers in the next few months, according to the Wall Street Journal -- and a rear admiral publicly chiding Beijing for its behavior, the intensity of its actions and statements on the waters has faded since Trump took office.

Doubts over the future of U.S. commitment could leave some Southeast Asian states reluctant to publicly challenge China on their own. The risk is that while the U.S. is occupied further north, China expands its presence in the South China Sea in a way that becomes impossible to unwind, giving it the strategic advantage over time.

“China knows that Trump is very focused on North Korea, and not too worried about Southeast Asia,” said Jay L. Batongbacal, director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the University of the Philippines. “There is a willingness on their part to push things as far as they can.”

The recent actions are a far cry from the clashes at sea that occurred in mid-2014 when China dragged an oil rig into waters also claimed by Vietnam. After an international outcry, Beijing withdrew the rig several months later.

When a 2005 agreement to share the area’s resources expired in 2008, the Philippines and Vietnam opposed China’s so-called nine-dash line -- marks on a map covering more than 80 percent of the South China Sea -- as a basis for joint exploration.

Now, under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Beijing and Manila are negotiating a deal for the Sampaguita gas field at Reed Bank as a starting point. Without strong support from the U.S. or Southeast Asian nations, Vietnam could find itself less able to push back against China’s efforts to drill in other areas.
More

"It doesn't matter if you're rich or poor, as long as you've got money."

Joe E. Lewis

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, so you really want to go into politics, Brazil style.  Still it’s small change compared to the Clinton Foundation. I wonder what they all do with all of that money? More on the EUSSR.

Brazil Police in Largest-Ever Bust of ‘Lost Treasure’ Trove

By David Biller
Brazil’s federal police on Tuesday found a trove of money stashed in an apartment allegedly used by one of President Michel Temer’s former cabinet members, in the largest single cash seizure in the country’s history.
A photograph provided by the police as part of its operation called “Lost Treasure” showed suitcases and cardboard boxes overflowing with 100-real and 50-real banknotes, Brazil’s two largest currency denominations. By early evening, police were still counting the bills and the tally had already surpassed 33 million reais ($10.6 million), according to the press office of the federal police in Brasilia.

The police said that the apartment in Salvador, capital of the state of Bahia, was supposedly used by Geddel Vieira Lima, an ally of President Temer and formerly his top congressional liaison. Vieira Lima resigned last year amid allegations of influence trafficking. Vieira Lima’s lawyer did not immediately respond to calls and messages seeking comment.

Tuesday’s bust comes just weeks after lawmakers voted against putting Temer on trial to face corruption allegations, which allowed his government to return attention to its economic reform agenda. If Temer hopes to succeed, he will need to navigate further tempests including a second criminal charge expected in coming weeks.

Vieira Lima was arrested in July on suspicion he tried to obstruct investigations into the diversion of funds from a state bank, and has since been under house arrest. Earlier Tuesday, federal police also searched the home and questioned the head of Brazil’s Olympic Committee in connection to allegations of bribes paid to help secure 2016 hosting rights.

The police press office said counting will continue into the night.

‘We’re being ruled by LUXEMBOURG’ Sir Michael Caine rages at Brussels and EU boss Juncker

SIR Michael Caine has revealed he backed Brexit because he doesn’t want Britain to be controlled by EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker who “doesn’t seem to like us”.

By PUBLISHED: 10:57, Wed, Sep 6, 2017
The British film icon said Britain was being “run by a man called Mr Juncker” - the European Commission President, a former prime minister of Luxembourg. 

During the Venice Film festival, he said: “Up until up until I was 20, I thought Luxembourg was a radio station.

“I didn't even know it was a country and now he's running my country and he doesn't seem to like us”. 

He said his decision to leave the Brussels club was not based on economics or immigration, but because “I’d rarer be a poor master of my own fate than a rich servant someone else’s”. 

This is not the first time the Italian Job actor has waded into the Brexit debate.

Sir Michael, 84, told Sky News earlier this year: “I voted for Brexit… what it is with me, I’d rather be a poor master than a rich servant.

“It wasn’t about the racism, immigrants or anything - it was about freedom.”

He added: “Politics is always chaotic. In politics, you're always going into areas you've never been before, so you're going to get lost and then you're going to find your way, and then it'll be all right.”

Ahead of last year’s momentous European Union referendum, Sir Michael also hit out at Brussels’ “faceless civil servants”.

He added: “To me, you’ve not got in Europe a sort of government by-proxy of everybody, who has now got carried away.

“Unless there is some extremely significant changes we should get out. You cannot be dictated to by thousands of faceless civil servants.”

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Haydale announces proposed collaboration with Rogers Advanced Composites

Sep 06, 2017
Haydale recently announced that it has agreed heads of terms for a technical and commercial collaboration with Rogers Advanced Composites ("RAC”). RAC is developing a composites center in the UK, and this collaboration will aim to enable RAC to access Haydale’s extensive technical know-how in composites, polymers and resins and to incorporate the range of advanced graphene enhanced composites, developed by Haydale, into its existing and future projects.

RAC, which has roots in the marine and yachting world through its sister company Rogers Yacht Design, has built a strong reputation in the design and manufacture of advanced composite products. It is Haydale’s understanding that RAC is experiencing a strong demand for high quality composite solutions across a range of industrial sectors including marine, military and motor sport and that RAC is in the process of securing long term production contracts for an oil recovery project as well as several aerospace, military and motor racing projects.

Haydale has developed three specific graphene enhanced carbon fibre pre pregs that offer designers the ability to improve and optimize structural performance characteristics. Each pre preg utilizes functionalized graphene dispersed in epoxy resin formulations to deliver enhanced performance in a specific area (enhanced electrical conductivity, enhanced thermal conductivity, enhanced mechanical performance).

"Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt."

Herbert Hoover, 31st United States President.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August

DJIA: 21,948 +215 Up. NASDAQ:  6,429 +266 Up. SP500: 2,472 +174 Up.

1 comment:

  1. Irma said the latest advisor from the National Hurricane Center is still expected to move towards Florida and west-northwest westward within the next two days. Computer models will track the storm in Florida and / or the west.I agree with your post,This is good post... http://onedaytop.com/back-sms-messages-android-phone/

    ReplyDelete