Baltic Dry Index. 1183 -01 Brent Crude 52.34
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but
World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
Albert Einstein
This week it will mostly all be about the latest threat from
North Korea, and how quickly or not, the US petro-chemical industry can recover
from the flooding and destruction of hurricane Harvey. By the end of the week it
might be focused on where Atlantic hurricane Irma might be headed, but for
today, North Korea dominates, while the USA celebrates its Labor Day holiday.
How to respond to a nuclear armed North Korea.
Below, Rupert Murdoch’s
London “Thunderer” gets on President Trump’s case. But short of starting a new
war, that all too easily might bring in China, and possibly Russia, and devastate
much of East Asia, it’s hard to see what President Trump can do. And the South
Korean’s, though increasingly vocal, aren’t exactly volunteering for a new war.
No one in Tokyo, thinks swapping Tokyo for Pyongyang makes any sense. Whether
we like it or not, our world has just entered a new very dangerous phase.
September 4 2017, 12:01am, The Times
Kim Jong-un has been emboldened by American incoherence
You don’t have to harbour any admiration for Kim Jong-un to be struck by
the brazenness of North Korea’s latest nuclear test.
Only a few weeks ago the president of the United States was threatening North
Korea with “fire and fury like the world has never seen” for no more than
“threats”. Last week Kim fired a missile over Japan. Yesterday he set off what
appears to be a bomb up to eight times bigger than the device dropped on
Hiroshima. What accounts for the headlong pace of Kim’s actions? Why doesn’t he
take it more slowly, as his late father did, to avoid humiliating Mr Trump and
potentially provoking him into military action?
The answer lies in the increasingly obvious weakness of the US leadership.
After President Obama’s “strategic patience”, which amounted to ignoring Kim
and piling on ineffective sanctions when he did something unforgivable, Mr
Trump had a new, more businesslike approach — tough talk alternated with hints
of rewards for good behaviour. One moment he was dispatching “armadas” to
Korea. The next he was calling Mr Kim “a pretty smart cookie”.
“If it would be appropriate for me to meet with him, I would
absolutely,” he told one interviewer. “I would be honoured to do it.”
More recently, however, with the president’s aides contradicting him
regularly, what might have been strategic ambiguity appears merely incoherent.
Worse than that, Mr Trump’s threats have proved hollow. No sign of fire and
fury so far.
Kim knows what Mr Trump’s generals have told him: that any full-scale
war in Korea would end in US and South Korean victory but that it would also
cost so many lives, do such damage to the economies of east Asia and run such a
risk of conflict with China, that it would be unbearably harmful to US
interests.
Hence the rather less bellicose tone of Mr Trump’s early morning tweets
on yesterday’s nuclear test. North Korea’s “words and actions continue to be
very hostile and dangerous to the United States”, he wrote.
His critics say he is giving Kim the impression of not knowing what he
wants or how to get it, other than by complaining at China for being unwilling
to do the job for him.
North Korea, on the other hand, has a clear strategy and goal: to
acquire the ability to threaten the US mainland with nuclear attack, as an
insurance policy against an attack upon itself.
It needs to do this as fast as possible. Once the line is crossed, the
strategic calculus will alter, and Kim will find himself in a position of
greater prestige and security than North Korea has enjoyed for years.
Not only will he have a powerful deterrent, he will also undermine the
US alliances with South Korea and Japan. Not all North Korean leaders have
enjoyed the luxury of incoherence in the White House. Kim intends to exploit it
quickly for as long as it lasts.
Power of North Korea bomb blast dwarfed Hiroshima
September 4 2017, 12:01am, The Times
It began with what felt like a medium-sized earthquake, shaking
buildings along the Chinese border and in South Korea. The timing, at the
strike of noon in North Korea, was peculiarly precise for a natural phenomenon.
Three hours later the confirmation came. Ri Chun-hee, North Korea’s
veteran newsreader, jubilantly announced a successful nuclear test, its sixth
and most powerful by far, with what she described as a thermonuclear warhead —
a hydrogen bomb — capable of being fitted to an intercontinental ballistic
missile.
Foreign seismologists analysing the earthquake estimated that the
underground test had a yield of as much as 120 kilotons, eight times larger
than the American bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
The test was a further demonstration of Kim Jong-un’s determination to
acquire the means for a nuclear attack on the United States, and a violent
challenge to the government of President Trump.
“The perfect success of the test of the H-bomb for ICBM clearly proved
that the . . . nuclear weapons of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
have been put on a highly precise basis,” a statement read out by Ms Ri said.
“It also marked a very significant occasion in . . . completing the state
nuclear force.”
Seismic monitors across the world detected an earthquake estimated at
5.8-6.3 magnitude close to North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site.
American and Chinese seismologists detected a second, lesser earthquake
soon after the first, and suggested that it was caused by the collapse of the
cave and tunnel in which the underground test had been carried out. Such a
cave-in could lead to the release of radiation into the atmosphere.
North Korea denied that there had been any environmental impact, and
South Korean scientists reported no secondary tremor. The Chinese government
dispatched monitors to scan for radiation along its border with North Korea but
did not indicate whether any had been detected.
As after North Korea’s five previous nuclear tests, immediate estimates
of its size and yield varied, but scientists agreed that this was the biggest
test so far. South Korea’s meteorological agency estimated that it was five or
six times more powerful than the last test a year ago, and almost 12 times
bigger than the fourth test in January last year.
----“The H-bomb, the explosive power of which is adjustable from tens [of] kilotons to hundreds [of] kilotons, is a multifunctional thermonuclear nuclear weapon with great destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes,” the report accompanying the photographs said.
“All components of the H-bomb were made domestically . . . thus enabling
the country to produce powerful nuclear weapons as many as it wants.”
The consensus among scientists is that North Korea’s first three tests,
in 2006, 2009 and 2013, were of relatively small atomic weapons of the fission
type dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Hydrogen, or thermonuclear, warheads,
which make up most of the world’s nuclear arsenals, use nuclear fusion to
create a far more powerful explosion.
More
Nuclear weapon yield
The explosive yield of a nuclear weapon is the amount of energy released when that particular nuclear weapon is detonated, usually expressed as a TNT equivalent (the standardized equivalent mass of trinitrotoluene which, if detonated, would produce the same energy discharge), either in kilotons (kt—thousands of tons of TNT), in megatons (Mt—millions of tons of TNT), or sometimes in terajoules (TJ). An explosive yield of one terajoule is 0.239 kt of TNT. Because the accuracy of any measurement of the energy released by TNT has always been problematic, the conventional definition is that one kiloton of TNT is held simply to be equivalent to 1012 calories.The yield-to-weight ratio is the amount of weapon yield compared to the mass of the weapon. The practical maximum yield-to-weight ratio for fusion weapons (thermonuclear weapons) has been estimated to six megatons of TNT per metric ton of bomb mass (25 TJ/kg). Yields of 5.2 megatons/ton and higher have been reported for large weapons constructed for single-warhead use in the early 1960s.[1] Since then, the smaller warheads needed to achieve the increased net damage efficiency (bomb damage/bomb weight) of multiple warhead systems, has resulted in decreases in the yield/weight ratio for single modern warheads.
More
Houston braces for more flooding, chemical plant fires out
September 3 2017
HOUSTON (AP) — Authorities carried out a controlled burn Sunday at a
chemical plant damaged by Harvey, sending small flames and gray smoke into the
sky, after saying the highly unstable compounds that had caused previous
explosions needed to be neutralized.
Small flames burning in charred structures were seen, with a limited
amount of the smoke, from the Arkema plant in Crosby, outside Houston. Sam
Mannan, a chemical safety expert at Texas A&M University, said the gray
smoke indicated a more complete burn with fewer harmful chemicals remaining. By
Sunday night, officials said all fires at the plant were out.
Officials said the “proactive measures” to ignite six remaining trailers
didn’t pose additional risks to the community. People living within a mile and
a half of the site are still evacuated, and the fire marshal’s office says
state, federal and local agencies will keep monitoring the air.
Three trailers containing unstable compounds had previously caught fire
at the plant after backup generators were engulfed by Harvey’s floodwaters,
which knocked out the refrigeration necessary to keep them from degrading and
igniting.
Some Houston officials stressed that the recovery from Harvey was
beginning, and Mayor Sylvester Turner proclaimed America’s fourth-largest city
“open for business.” But the on-the-ground reality varied by place.
Utility crews went door-to-door shutting off power and warning those
still in some waterlogged homes in western parts of the city that still more
flooding could be heading their way — not from rain but from releases of water
in overtaxed reservoirs. Thousands of Houston dwellings were under new, mandatory
evacuation orders, though about 300 people were thought to be refusing to
leave.
Some homes in the area, which included brick two-story and ranch homes
with manicured lawns bordering Buffalo Bayou, remained evacuated but people
briefly returned Sunday to try to salvage valuables like family photos.
“I called 911 for 15 minutes; no one answered. My neighbor had a canoe
and saved us,” said Gaston Kirby, who evacuated Aug. 27 with his two young
children. When they left, he said, their home had about 2 inches of water and
got another 2 feet from Harvey. But the reservoir releases added at least
another 3 feet.
Contradictions could be seen as well in some people taking a break from
their cleanup efforts in the sweltering heat to worship on a “National Day of
Prayer,” while others worried about thefts in storm-ravaged neighborhoods.
More
Hurricane Irma looks set to strengthen
Parts of the Caribbean on watch
Posted: Sep 03, 2017 11:44 PM CDT Updated:
Sep 03, 2017 11:44 PM CDT
CNN) - Hurricane Irma is churning west across the Atlantic, putting
parts of the Caribbean on watch and prompting warnings for the US mainland to
be prepared should the storm head that way.
Sunday evening Irma was traversing the ocean as Category 3 hurricane,
with winds nearing 115 mph (185 kmh). It is expected to pick up strength over
the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
Irma's center was about 760 miles east of the Leeward Islands, a group
of islands in the West Indies that start east of Puerto Rico, the NHC said.
Hurricane watches have been issued for the Leeward Islands of Antigua,
Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. Additional hurricane or
tropical storm watches may come as soon as Monday for the British and US Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.
"Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday
night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday," the NHC
said.
"Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islands by the
middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by dangerous wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip currents," the
agency said.
More
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, so you think you know how to beat the stock
market. If it was easy, everyone would do it.
Why every investor should print out these charts and hang them on their wall
Published: Sept 2, 2017 9:41 a.m. ET
Think your investments can’t go to zero? Then this is the chart for you...
Time for some reflection.
Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners, just dropped
a treasure trove of fantastic charts this week that should have investors
questioning every bit of advice they ever received and every market “truism”
they’ve ever come across.
“They say a picture is worth a thousand words but in investing it is
worth so much more,” Bilello wrote in a post. “The market doesn’t have to do
anything, and certainly not what you think it should do. The market doesn’t
abide by any hard and fast rules; it does what it wants to do, when it wants to
do it.”
With that in mind here are just some of the charts Bilello says you
should put “on your wall” and reference the next time...
... you think, “Something is ‘oversold’ or ‘at support’ and has to go
back up.”
---... you find yourself saying
something is “overbought” and can’t go higher. Remember the Nasdaq COMP,
+0.10% circa 1999?
----.. the words come out of your mouth, “It can’t go to 0.”
----... you hear, “Housing prices only go up.”
More. Click for charts.
“If we knew what it was
we were doing, it would not be called research, would it?”
Albert Einstein
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Toward a smart graphene membrane to desalinate water
Date:
August 30, 2017
Source:
Penn State Materials Research Institute
Summary:
A simple, sturdy graphene-based hybrid desalination membrane can provide clean
water for agriculture and possibly human consumption.
An international team of researchers, including scientists from Shinshu
University (Japan) and the director of Penn State's ATOMIC Center, has
developed a graphene-based coating for desalination membranes that is more
robust and scalable than current nanofiltration membrane technologies. The
result could be a sturdy and practical membrane for clean water solutions as
well as protein separation, wastewater treatment and pharmaceutical and food
industry applications.
"Our dream is to create a smart membrane that combines high flow
rates, high efficiency, long lifetime, self-healing and eliminates bio and
inorganic fouling in order to provide clean water solutions for the many parts
of the world where clean water is scarce," says Mauricio Terrones,
professor of physics, chemistry and materials science and engineering, Penn
State. "This work is taking us in that direction."
The hybrid membrane the team developed uses a simple spray-on technology
to coat a mixture of graphene oxide and few-layered graphene in solution onto a
backbone support membrane of polysulfone modified with polyvinyl alcohol. The
support membrane increased the robustness of the hybrid membrane, which was
able to stand up to intense cross-flow, high pressure and chlorine exposure.
Even in early stages of development, the membrane rejects 85 percent of salt,
adequate for agricultural purposes though not for drinking, and 96 percent of
dye molecules. Highly polluting dyes from textile manufacturing is commonly
discharged into rivers in some areas of the world.
Chlorine is generally used to mitigate biofouling in membranes, but
chlorine rapidly degrades the performance of current polymer membranes. The
addition of few-layer graphene makes the new membrane highly resistant to
chlorine.
Graphene is known to have high mechanical strength, and porous graphene
is predicted to have 100 percent salt rejection, making it a potentially ideal
material for desalination membranes. However, there are many challenges with
scaling up graphene to industrial quantities including controlling defects and
the need for complex transfer techniques required to handle the two-dimensional
material. The current work attempts to overcome the scalability issues and
provide an inexpensive, high quality membrane at manufacturing scale.
The work was performed in the Global Aqua Innovation Center and the
Institute of Carbon Science and Technology at Shinshu University, Nagano,
Japan, where Terrones is also a Distinguished Invited Professor. The team
includes researchers Aaron Morelos-Gomez, Josue Ortiz-Medina and Rodolfo
Cruz-Silva, former Ph.D. students of Terrones. Morelos-Gomez is lead author on
a paper published online on August 28 in Nature Nanotechnology describing their
work titled "Effective NaCL and dye rejection of hybrid graphene
oxide/graphene layered membranes." The Japanese researchers, Hiroyuki
Muramatsu, Takumi Araki, Tomoyuki Fukuyo, Syogo Tejima, Kenji Takeuchi, and
Takuya Hayashi, were also led by Professor Morinobu Endo.
More
"When
a man sits with a pretty girl for an hour, it seems like a minute. But let him
sit on a hot stove for a minute — and it's longer than any hour. That's
relativity."
Albert
Einstein.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 21,948 +215 Up. NASDAQ: 6,429 +266 Up. SP500: 2,472 +174 Up.
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