Friday, 29 September 2017

A Sea Change Underway.



Baltic Dry Index. 1391 -38    Brent Crude 58.50

But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.
Ben Bernanke. 2002.


The big stories of the next few days will be what happens next in Spain and Catalonia, how much of continuing disaster Puerto Rico will turn out to be, and of course, what happens next in North Korea. 

But while we await developments over the weekend, a sea change seems to be under way in the west’s democracies. Voters from the UK to Japan seem to have woken up to the wonders of the fiat money “money-tree.”  On the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, communist money, voters are being seduced by populist political parties that you can have your cake and eat it too. All paid for by the modern day goose that lays golden eggs, the incredible free money wonders, of the central banksters’ money-trees.

Below, Japan’s politicians get on Comrade Corbyn’s, New Communist Labour Party, “money-tree” band waggon. If crooked gambling banksters can be bailed out, why not me? If it’s good enough for Japan, why not Britain, France, Spain and Italy?  Since there’s no free lunch on planet Earth, we all know how this illusion ends, just not when. For now though This old dinosaur market follower thinks an unstoppable sea change is underway. Time to stock up on under priced tangible assets with real intrinsic value. A 21st century repeat of the profligate 1970s is about to get underway.

"In politics stupidity is not a handicap."
 
Napoleon Bonaparte, Dictator.


September 29, 2017 / 5:41 AM / Updated 24 minutes ago

Looming election may be nail in coffin for Japan's fiscal reform

TOKYO (Reuters) - Even as a new party under a populist female leader scrambles the outlook for Japan’s general election next month, one thing is clear: the winner will loosen a grip on the government’s runaway debt as lawmakers forego higher taxes or boost spending. 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to use the revenue from a planned sales-tax hike not to pay down debt but to spend more on education and other popular programmers. 

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, whose “Party of Hope” is challenging Abe’s ruling coalition by effectively absorbing Japan’s largest opposition party, wants to put off the tax hike altogether. 

“Japan has yet to emerge from deflation as consumption, which makes up a large portion of the economy, remains weak,” she told a briefing on Thursday, criticising Abe for doing little to prop up household income.
The debate is shifting to how much more to spend and in what areas, rather than on what is acceptable within the limits set by Japan’s public debt, which at well over twice the size of its economy is the biggest among industrialised nations. 

“Regardless of who wins, there will be increased spending because that’s how you win votes,” said Koichi Haji, chief economist at NLI Research Institute. 

“Very few lawmakers call for fiscal reform,” Haji added. “That may be fine now, but there’s no telling when loss of market trust in Japan’s finances could trigger a spike in bond yields.” 

Japan’s ballooning public debt has not bothered the bond market much so far, as investors trust the country can repay public debt with its huge current account surplus and abundant domestic savings. 

But the long-term risk is that snowballing social security spending for a fast-ageing population will strain government finances, making it more vulnerable to a sudden spike in borrowing costs that would hurt the economy. 

Japanese government bond (JGB) prices tumbled on Thursday, with the benchmark futures posting their biggest fall in three months, as investors braced for bigger spending.
More

Below, eventually how it all ends, in higher interest rates, though not in the baby step interest rate increases anticipated now. With the voters universally tired of austerity and debt, I sense we are on the threshold of another chapter in the Madness of Crowds. Led by Japan, we are all about to electronically print up people’s QE to “prosperity.”

Europe's Biggest Fund Manager Expects Higher Interest Rates to Spread

By Cecile Gutscher
Regardless of central bankers’ assurances, higher interest rates are set to spread in Europe, according to its biggest fund manager.

Sergei Strigo, the London-based head of emerging-market debt at Amundi Asset Management, is betting that central-bank rates in east Europe’s biggest economies are more likely to follow the Czech National Bank than the European Central Bank on the path toward tighter policy.

Strigo, whose firm oversees 1.3 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion), has been paring positions in the region’s government debt since 2016 based on his view that central bankers will move to raise rates before the European Central Bank eventually does. He’s betting rate setters in Poland and Hungary will have to abandon pledges to keep borrowing costs at record-low levels until as late as 2019 as their economies heat up.

“Going into next year we see these central banks thinking about interest rate hikes as inflationary pressures build up and growth surprises on the upside,” said Strigo. His Global Emerging Local Currency fund has outperformed 92 percent of peers this year with gains of 15 percent.

With growth gathering pace and consumption on the rise, a growing chorus of investors are seeing a surge in wages feeding through to inflation in the region battered by a labor shortage. Strigo says he’s keeping bond duration lower than the benchmark and using interest-rate swaps to hedge against the possible increases.
The Czech National Bank, which delivered Europe’s first rate hike in August, is debating the timing for its next move to tighten as faster-than-expected economic growth and a shortage of workers drive up salaries and prices. Policy makers voted four to three to keep the benchmark rate at 0.25 percent on Wednesday
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-29/amundi-braces-for-higher-rates-in-europe-but-not-from-draghi

"Someone must stand up to those who say, "Here's the key, there's the Treasury, just take as many of those hard-earned tax dollars as you want.”

Ronald Reagan. So old fashioned, last century, in our new age of money-trees.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner


The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Puerto Rico, an island in deep distress. Misled by Hollywood disaster movies and modern superficial media, things take longer than most people’s unrealistic expectations. I was in Florida when hurricane Andrew hit, and saw just how long it took to revive a relatively small, if wrecked, part of south Florida. And the rest of Florida was still connected by working Interstates and turnpikes. Puerto Rico was an island already in financial and other distress before the hurricanes hit, sorting out Puerto Rico will not be quick or easy, and hurricane season still has two more months to run.
Below, how the modern media shamelessly uses tragedy for political purposes. Reminds me of the Grenfell Tower tragedy recently in London.
“I sometimes get the impression that many U.S. media outlets work according to a principle which was common in the Soviet Union. Back then, people used to joke that the newspaper Pravda [Truth] had no truth in it, and the Izvestia [News] paper has no news in it. I get the impression that many U.S. media operate in the same way.”

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.

So many storms: After Harvey and Irma, can a thinly stretched FEMA come through for Puerto Rico?

September 27, 2017
Nibbling on dwindling food stocks, lacking crucial medications, sweltering in half-wrecked homes with only tainted water for washing and barely any for drinking: For many in Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria’s aftermath has been even more harrowing than the mighty storm itself.

Amid growing warnings of a potential humanitarian crisis in the Caribbean island territory that is home to 3.4 million U.S. citizens, federal relief efforts were ramping up Wednesday, even as criticism mounted. Among the most urgent priorities were food and water deliveries for isolated, storm-pounded rural communities and distribution of diesel for generators to power vital services such as hospital equipment and sanitation systems.
About 97% of the island's residents still lacked power Wednesday, Gov. Ricardo Rossello said, and about half remain without running water.

On his Facebook page, Rossello posted a photo of a street intersection in the southeast coastal town of Humacao where someone had painted a huge SOS sign with the words, “Necesitamos agua/comida!” — “We need water and food.”

Increasingly desperate local officials have demanded more help from the federal government, and faster delivery of what aid is coming.

“They’re going very slowly, the aid isn’t getting to people fast enough. We seem to be losing a lot of time in jurisdictional trifles,” San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz said in an interview Wednesday.
“People are dying,” she said. “We don’t have time for that.”

The White House has fought back hard against complaints that the federal government’s response in Puerto Rico has been less robust than in hurricane-hammered Texas and Florida.

“We’ve gotten A-pluses on Texas and on Florida,” Trump told reporters this week. “And we will also on Puerto Rico.”

Federal officials have cited logistical and geographical challenges in rushing aid to an island territory 1,000 miles from the U.S. mainland. And they have not discounted the difficulty of trying to mount simultaneous disaster operations across two states and two U.S. territories.

----Hurricane Maria, with winds just a whisper short of Category 5 status, tore through the island Sept. 20, less than two weeks after Puerto Rico was sideswiped by monster Hurricane Irma. The already faltering power grid collapsed.

Since then, relief supplies have begun to arrive at the port, but getting them where they’re needed is difficult. Unloading cranes, operating on generators, move at only half-speed. Shipping containers stuffed with disaster relief items have sat at the port because of a lack of truck drivers. The Puerto Rico Fire Department took to social media requesting licensed truck and bus drivers to come forward on Wednesday.
In the meantime, daily life has become an unceasing struggle. Banks across the island remain closed, so people are cash-strapped. A dusk-to-dawn curfew is supposed to help restore order, but people are sometimes forced to break the law as they wait in long gas lines.

Mayor Cruz said two people died because their life support was shut off when the generator at a San Juan hospital ran out of fuel.

“People in the street are doing what they can to survive,” said U.S. service member Orlando Sanchez-Matos, part of a San Juan-based military contingent getting ready to help build a shelter in the capital’s Hato Rey neighborhood.

About 1.5 million people remained without drinking water, the Pentagon said. Fifty-nine of the island’s 69 hospitals were operational, it said, but communications problems have hampered status reporting.
Hospitals, like other institutions, were using couriers to send and receive information.

San Juan’s Luis Munoz Marin International Airport and nine other airports were storm-damaged but operating, and three seaports were open as well, with five more ports in limited use, according to the Pentagon. The military said it was moving from a sea-based rescue effort to a land-based one, concentrating on route clearance and aid distribution.
More
September 28, 2017 / 1:49 PM / Updated 2 hours ago

U.S. appoints general to oversee military response to Puerto Rico disaster

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (Reuters) - The Pentagon named a senior general to command military relief operations in hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico on Thursday and the Trump administration sent a Cabinet emissary to the island as U.S. lawmakers called for a more robust response to the crisis. 

The U.S. territory of 3.4 million people struggled through a ninth day with virtually no electricity, patchy communications and shortages of fuel, clean water and other essentials in the wake of Hurricane Maria, the most powerful storm to hit the island in nearly 90 years. 

The storm struck on Sept. 20 with lethal, roof-ripping force and torrential rains that caused widespread flooding and heavily damaged homes, roads and other infrastructure. 

The storm killed more than 30 people across the Caribbean, including at least 16 in Puerto Rico. Governor Ricardo Rossello has called the island’s devastation unprecedented. 

The U.S. military, which has poured thousands of troops into the relief effort, named Lieutenant General Jeffrey Buchanan on Thursday to oversee its response on the island. 

Buchanan, Army chief for the military’s U.S. Northern Command, was expected to arrive in Puerto Rico later on Thursday. He will be the Pentagon’s main liaison with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. government’s lead agency on the island, and focus on aid distribution, the Pentagon said in a statement. 

FEMA has already placed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in charge of rebuilding the island’s crippled power grid, which has posed one of the island’s biggest challenges after the storm. 

In yet another move raising the administration’s profile in the crisis, acting U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Elaine Duke, whose department includes FEMA, will visit Puerto Rico on Friday with other senior government officials to meet the governor, Puerto Rican authorities and federal relief workers, her office announced. 

President Donald Trump again praised the government’s performance, saying on Twitter FEMA and other first responders were “doing a GREAT job,” but he complained about media coverage, adding: “Wish press would treat fairly!”
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Graphene forged into three-dimensional shapes

Date: September 26, 2017

Source: Suomen Akatemia (Academy of Finland)

Summary: Researchers have discovered how graphene, a single-atom-thin layer of carbon, can be forged into three-dimensional objects by using laser light. A striking illustration was provided when the researchers fabricated a pyramid with a height of 60 nm, which is about 200 times larger than the thickness of a graphene sheet. The pyramid was so small that it would easily fit on a single strand of hair. 

Researchers from Finland and Taiwan have discovered how graphene, a single-atom-thin layer of carbon, can be forged into three-dimensional objects by using laser light. A striking illustration was provided when the researchers fabricated a pyramid with a height of 60 nm, which is about 200 times larger than the thickness of a graphene sheet. The pyramid was so small that it would easily fit on a single strand of hair. The research was supported by the Academy of Finland and the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of China.

Graphene is a close relative to graphite, which consists of millions of layers of graphene and can be found in common pencil tips. After graphene was first isolated in 2004, researchers have learned to routinely produce and handle it. Graphene can be used to make electronic and optoelectronic devices, such as transistors, photodetectors and sensors. In future, we will probably see an increasing number of products containing graphene.

"We call this technique optical forging, since the process resembles forging metals into 3D shapes with a hammer. In our case, a laser beam is the hammer that forges graphene into 3D shapes," explains Professor Mika Pettersson, who led the experimental team at the Nanoscience Center of the University of Jyväskylä, Finland. "The beauty of the technique is that it's fast and easy to use; it doesn't require any additional chemicals or processing. Despite the simplicity of the technique, we were very surprised initially when we observed that the laser beam induced such substantial changes on graphene. It took a while to understand what was happening."

"At first, we were flabbergasted. The experimental data simply made no sense," says Dr Pekka Koskinen, who was responsible for the theory. "But gradually, by close interplay between experiments and computer simulations, the actuality of 3D shapes and their formation mechanism started to become clear."

"When we first examined the irradiated graphene, we were expecting to find traces of chemical species incorporated into the graphene, but we couldn't find any. After some more careful inspections, we concluded that it must be purely structural defects, rather than chemical doping, that are responsible for such dramatic changes on graphene," explains Associate Professor Wei Yen Woon from Taiwan, who led the experimental group that carried out X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy at the synchrotron facility.

The novel 3D graphene is stable and it has electronic and optical properties that differ from normal 2D graphene. Optically forged graphene can help in fabricating 3D architectures for graphene-based devices.

Another weekend and a dramatic one in Spain and Puerto Rico. We will not have to wait very long for news of the drama. Have a great weekend everyone.

"In economics, hope and faith coexist with great scientific pretension."

John Kenneth Galbraith

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August

DJIA: 21,948 +215 Up. NASDAQ:  6,429 +266 Up. SP500: 2,472 +174 Up.

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