Baltic Dry Index. 1232 -08 Brent Crude
48.97
Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will
winter be?)
There can be few
fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world
of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is
dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to
appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
We have entered the Kafkaesque world of
Trumpmania. Black is the new white where it comes to stock speculation. Another
real 21st century mania is underway. In America, Donald James Trump,
is the new Klondike. The speculative wisdom of the new order is that you got to
jump in with both feet and grab your share now. Get while the getting’s good.
The new counter revolution against the
liberal elite, Hollywood “stars” and Silly-con valley moguls peddling social
media electrons, has been usurped by Wall Street’s never ending supply of
Squids and Banksters. “Buy your tulips now,” because tomorrow they’ll be double
the price. It may not have quite the drama of the late 1979 January 1980 gold bubble,
nor the excitement of the great Hunt brothers silver corner, but we have
entered our second mania of the 21st century. Remind me again of how
fallen former guru Greenspan’s real estate mania worked out last decade.
Below, the latest on Trumpmania. I
suspect that it has a few more weeks to run until the reality of the inauguration. Buy the rumour, sell the fact.
Dow closes above 19,000 as stocks log second straight record session
By Wallace Witkowski and Ryan
Vlastelica Published: Nov 22, 2016 5:47 p.m. ET
Major U.S. stock indexes closed at record highs for a second
straight session Tuesday, with the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 also
clearing noteworthy psychological barriers.
U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday as the Dow industrials and S&P 500
cleared psychological milestones but major indexes simultaneously reached
record highs for a second straight day.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.35% rose 67.18 points, or 0.4%,
to finish at 19,023.87, its first session of surpassing and closing above
19,000. The average was led higher by more than 2% gains in both Verizon
Communications Inc. VZ, +2.44% and Home Depot Inc. HD, +2.15%
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.22% finished up 4.76 points, or
0.2%, at a record 2,202.94, with nine out of 11 sectors closing higher, led by
gains in telecom and real-estate stocks. Additionally, consumer-discretionary
names were among the biggest outperformers, lifted by retailers.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.33% gained 17.49 points, or
0.3%, to finish at a record 5,386.35.
As all three indexes hit
new records, so did the Russell 2000 RUT, +0.92% index of small-cap stocks.
The Tuesday session marked the first time that all four indexes hit intraday
records consecutive days since April 1998. The last time all four closed at
records for two session in a row was March 18 and 19, 1998.
More
These Charts Show That Trump Is Bringing the 1990s Back to Markets
We've seen this before, sort of.
Narae Kim November 22, 2016 — 8:34 PM EST
Donald
Trump's election as U.S. president is driving global markets to levels not seen
in nearly two decades — but in completely different directions. And the
"polarization'" of emerging and developed markets is all part of
"Trump reflation,'' argues Divya Devesh, a foreign-exchange strategist at
Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore.
In
the post-Trump era, emerging markets have been feeling the heat. Malaysia's ringgit plunged on Tuesday to be less than 1
percent from the 4.48 per dollar it reached in September of last year, the weakest level since the Asian
financial crisis in the late 1990s. Sentiment is little different in the
country's equities market, where investors sold 1.1 billion ringgit ($248
million) of shares through Friday in the biggest weekly exodus since June.
However,
things are looking better across the Pacific. All four major U.S. equity
benchmarks — the S&P 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the
Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 2000 Index — climbed together to record peaks this week. The surge,
which was helped by rallies in commodities, has taken place simultaneously for
the first time since 1999.
It's
all feeling a lot like the last time the Clintons were having to step away from
power — oil is again struggling to climb from multi-year lows as OPEC
seeks to corral crude producers inside and outside the organization to curb
supply, the yen is again (for now) the best-performing G-10 currency for the
year.
Not only that, the greenback recorded 10 days of gains that were its longest winning streak against the euro since the eurozone currency was first introduced back in 1999. And the dollar's rally is being driven by the resuscitation of the bond vigilantes — the ones Bill Clinton adviser James Carville said could intimidate everybody — as surging Treasury yields threaten to cloud the outlook for ambitious presidential spending plans.
More
Big Western Companies Are Pumping Cash Into Russia
November 23, 2016 — 2:00 AM GMT
Even before the U.S. presidential election raised hopes of warmer ties with
the Kremlin, some big Western companies were betting Russia’s economy will soon
come out of the deep freeze.Big retailers like Sweden’s Ikea Group and France’s Leroy Merlin SA have begun pumping billions of dollars in new stores and factories, counting on Russia’s consumers to start emerging from hibernation after two years of recession.
Ikea is putting $1.6 billion into new stores over the next five years or so. Leroy Merlin in September announced a 2-billion-euro plan to more than double the number of outlets in Russia over the same period. Pfizer Inc. is building a new drug factory, while Mars Inc. is expanding plants for chewing gum and pet food.
“This is the moment for investment,” said Walter Kadnar, country head for Ikea, which last launched a new store in Russia five years ago but this fall opened a $60 million furniture factory near St. Petersburg and acquired land for a third Mega mall near the city. “I strongly believe in the potential of the Russian market long-term.”
Foreign investment all but ground to a halt as the country sunk into recession and conflict with the West over the last two years. Companies including General Motors Co. slashed local operations. For many of those who stayed, now is the time to reopen their wallets to get a jump on rivals. The ruble’s plunge, though it decimated the value of local earnings in dollars and euros, has driven production costs in Russia down sharply. By some estimates, they’re now lower than those in China.
“The last 2-3 years have been a disaster,” said Frank Schauff, head of
the Association of European Businesses in Moscow. “Now, the situation is
changing as the ruble exchange rate has stabilized and the Russian economy is
forecast to return to growth soon.”
The government said its annual meeting of foreign investors in September
drew the most top executives in a decade. Foreign direct investment surged to
$8.3 billion in the first nine months of this year, more than the $5.9 billion
reported for all of 2015, according to central bank data.
More
Elsewhere, in the wealth and jobs destroying EUSSR,
wealth destruction has become the only game in town.
Investor pain plan could hold key to Monte dei Paschi's future
The threat of political and market turmoil from a Dec. 4 referendum on constitutional reform, expected to go against Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, has cast further doubt over the world's oldest bank and its bid for 5 billion euros ($5.3 billion) of fresh capital.
The wider threat to Italy's banks and economy, the euro zone's third largest, has prompted Italy and European regulators to prepare a fall-back plan - possibly taking a softer stance on imposing losses on all bondholders, allowing the state to help, said the sources.
"There is flexibility in the rules," said one official of the
procedure of asking for European Union approval for state support, which first
requires such bondholders to take losses.
Earlier this year, Rome sought approval from Brussels to support Monte
dei Paschi, but the EU's antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager wanted investors to
share the cost, in keeping with stricter post financial crisis rules known as
'bail-in'.
Rome refused, arguing that Italian pensioners would be hit and investors
would shun the country's debt, and Monte dei Paschi was forced to launch its
third recapitalization in as many years -- planned for immediately after the
referendum.
Italy's third biggest bank, which emerged as Europe's weakest lender in
regional stress tests this summer, is trying to fill a 5 billion euro capital
hole.
That begins with a 'voluntary' debt swap, which analysts estimate could
raise 1 to 1.5 billion euros, and continues with a share sale. In practice,
with the bank in a fragile state, they have little choice but to accept.
Now European officials believe the debt-for-equity swap later this month
could unlock the earlier impasse over state aid, if the bid for investor cash
fails.
Uncertainties remain, including whether Italy would offer guarantees to
underpin the bank or inject capital.
It is unclear what would happen to retail investors who are the main owners
of 2.1 billion euros of the bank's subordinated bonds and whose vulnerability
is a key concern for the Italian government.
"If Monte dei Paschi needs state aid, its junior bondholders will
be hit before the state puts public funds in the bank," said one official
with knowledge of the bank's plans.
"The hit will surely target institutional bondholders, while there
is a chance that retail bondholders could be spared to avoid perverse effects
on the other banks and shield small investors," the official added.
Italy, the European Commission, and Germany, which has argued for strict
enforcement of bank rescue rules, may ultimately fail to agree.
More
To Understand Europe’s Political Tremors, Take a Look at Italy
A Dec. 4 vote gives a foretaste of ballots across the region.
November 23, 2016 — 5:01 AM GMT
To get a sense of Europe’s political weather, take a look at Italy: For
the past century, it’s served as a barometer of the continent’s mood. In the
1920s, Mussolini’s fascism presaged Hitler and the Nazis. In the ’70s, Italy’s
extreme left- and right-wing terrorist movements heralded armed groups in the
rest of Europe. Curious about the future of a country run by a media-savvy
billionaire with hair issues? Check out how Silvio Berlusconi destroyed
traditional parties with TV slogans, anti-Establishment rhetoric, and garish
displays of wealth.
That’s why Europe will closely watch a Dec. 4 referendum over arcane
details of Italian parliamentary procedure. The ballot could indicate whether
the populism sweeping the world (think Brexit and Trump) is still ascendant or
poised to abate. “Italy is like a seismograph,” says Marc Lazar, a professor at
Sciences Po University in Paris. “It registers tiny political tremors that then
spread to Europe and the rest of the world as bigger shocks.”
Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has staked his future on the vote, a
constitutional reform aimed at shrinking the senate to make Italy more
governable. He says the referendum would hit the old guard of Italian politics
that’s paralyzed the country for decades, cutting the number of senators from
315 to 100, eliminating their ability to bring down the government with
no-confidence votes, and reining in their power to block legislation. Although
Renzi swept into office in 2014 as a fresh face pledging to make difficult
choices, he’s now considered part of the Establishment, so many voters see the
referendum as a chance to “drain the swamp,” Italian-style. And he’s threatened
to quit if it’s rejected, so the ballot has become more of a plebiscite on
Renzi himself than on the new senate rules. “This government was born to enact
reforms,” says Lorenzo Guerini, deputy-secretary of Renzi’s Democratic Party.
“If Italians reject the most important changes, we’ll have to deal with the
consequences.”
Austria, France, the Netherlands, and Germany face presidential or
parliamentary elections in the coming year, and Spain is expecting a referendum
on independence for the region of Catalonia. As governments and mainstream
parties struggle to counter the virulent denunciations by insurgents on
everything from poor economic growth to the influx of immigrants, there’s a big
chance of further gains by nationalists and populists. Next year “gives me the
shivers,” Marco Buti, the European Commission’s director general for economic
and financial affairs, said in a Nov. 17 speech in Rome.
More
"We finished the
year, and we reported that we had $17 billion of cash sitting at the bank's
parent company as a liquidity cushion. As the year has gone on, that liquidity
cushion has been virtually unchanged."
Alan Schwartz, CEO Bear Stearns,
March 12, 2008. Bust March 16, 2008.
At the Comex silver depositories
Tuesday final figures were: Registered 30.90 Moz, Eligible 146.29 Moz,
Total 177.19 Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Below, a trend that I am watching with growing
scepticism. A glass of water one or two years away, doesn’t slake a thirst
today. Today’s Brexit update.
We hold these
truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are
endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights; that among these are
life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness outside of the EUSSR.”
With grateful
thanks to the writers of the US Declaration of Independence.
Baltic Dry index surges to two-year high on Trump's infrastructure plans as pound spikes above $1.25
Tara Cunningham, Business Reporter 21 November 2016 •
5:35pm
The Baltic Dry Index, which is seen by many as a
leading indicator of the state of the world economy, has surged to its highest
level in almost two years. The index measures shipping costs for commodities
including iron ore, copper and steel. It is comprised of three-sub indexes that
measure different sizes of merchant ships, and is based on a daily survey of
agents all over the world.
It hit a peak level of 11,793 in May 2008 but since
hitting a nadir in February it has rallied by 333pc. The latest surge in the
index comes following Donald Trump’s shock victory on November 8. Since then it
has soared 50pc to 1,257.
During his campaign trail, Trump pledged to launch
a $1 trillion infrastructure package. The spending would be a boon for owners
of vessels ferrying iron ore and other commodities around the world,
accelerating the Baltic index’s recovery in the past two weeks.
Verhofstadt Says U.K. Agrees Brexit Talks Should End by Mid-2019
November 22,
2016 — 10:50 AM GMT
The European Union and the U.K. should begin negotiations quickly on the
U.K.’s exit from the EU so that the departure can be concluded before
mid-2019 when Europe holds its next legislative elections, according to
Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s representative on Brexit matters.
“We agreed on the need that this process needs to start as early as
possible and needs to finish, in any case, before the next European elections,”
Verhofstadt told reporters in Strasbourg, France, after meeting with British
Brexit Secretary David Davis.
Davis
has been visiting Brussels and Strasbourg this week, meeting with his
counterparts in the European Commission and EU Parliament before formal
discussions on the U.K.’s departure begin. British Prime Minister Theresa May,
who said she will trigger the U.K.’s exit procedure by the end of March, had
her preparations thrown into turmoil earlier this month when a court said she
couldn’t unilaterally begin the exit process and instead would require a vote
in parliament.
The other 27 members of the EU have insisted that if Britain wants to
curb immigration -- a central tenet of the campaign to leave -- then it won’t
get access to the EU’s single market. At a hearing in September, the U.K.’s
Davis was asked about comments by Verhofstadt on the need for Britain to accept
free movement of labor to stay in the single market. Davis responded: “Get thee
behind me, Satan.”
Verhofstadt reiterated the EU position on Tuesday. “These four freedoms
are key; they are a basic element of the European Union -- the freedom of
movement of goods, of services, of capital and of people,” he said. “We will
certainly never accept whatever development where these four freedoms are put
at risk.”
"Those
entrapped by the herd instinct are drowned in the deluges of history. But there
are always the few who observe, reason, and take precautions, and thus escape
the flood. For these few gold has been the asset of last resort." Antony C. Sutton
Solar & Related Update.
With events
happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap
AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC?
A quantum computer next?
China wants to turn Chernobyl exclusion zone into solar power plant
Published time: 22 Nov, 2016 03:21
Two Chinese companies have announced plans to build a one
gigawatt solar photovoltaic plant in the exclusion zone surrounding the
Chernobyl nuclear reactor, reviving the site after the worst nuclear power
plant disaster in history.
Thirty years after a catastrophic meltdown in 1986 forced the
authorities to evacuate all people and create an exclusion zone within a 30
kilometer radius of the Soviet nuclear plant located on the territory of modern
Ukraine, Chinese clean energy giant Golden Concord Holdings Limited (GCL)
embraced the ambitious project of reviving the area by building a solar plant
within the exclusion zone’s confines.
GCL System Integration Technology (GCL-SI), a subsidiary of the GCL
Group, announced that it would cooperate with the China National Complete
Engineering Corp (CCEC) on plant construction, which is expected to be started
in 2017.
CCEC, a subsidiary of state-owned China National Machinery Industry
Corp, will be the general constructor of the facility and will run the project
while the GCL-SI will provide and install solar components. The total cost of
the project has not yet been revealed.
Plans to revive the exclusion zone were previously voiced by the
Ukrainian government. In October, Ukraine’s Ministry of Environment and Natural
Resources announced a plan to build a solar plant not far from the abandoned
nuclear reactor.
“It is cheap land and abundant sunlight constitutes a solid foundation
for the project. In addition, the remaining electric transmission facilities
are ready for reuse,” Ostap Semerak, Ukraine’s minister of environment and natural resources,
said at that time.
The project is also a key part of the GCL’s plan to build up its
international presence.
"There will be remarkable social benefits and economic ones as we
try to renovate the once damaged area with green and renewable energy,"
Shu Hua, the chairman of GCL-SI, said in a press release.“We have been dedicated to providing integrated solar services and will take diverse approaches this year to drive penetration and achieve global presence. The Chernobyl project is also one of our key steps to approach abroad,” he added.
The exact location of the future plant has not been disclosed, although the GCL manager told Reuters that the place was deemed safe by Ukrainian authorities and underwent several inspections by GCL technicians.
“Ukraine has passed a law allowing the site to be developed for agriculture and other things, so that means [the radiation] is under control,” he told Reuters.
China is now trying to encourage the use of damaged or contaminated areas within its own territory for solar and wind power projects. Such plants are particularly built in the subsidence-hit regions of Shanxi, the country’s top coal mining province.
https://www.rt.com/news/367747-chernobyl-china-solar-power/
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: 18142
+32 Up NASDAQ: 5189 +31 Up. SP500: 2126 +46 Up.
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