Monday, 7 November 2016

D-Day Minus One.

Baltic Dry Index. 855  +06   Brent Crude 45.74

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will winter be?)

If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it.

Mark Twain

It is D-Day minus one, but is it Donald Day minus one? Not if the FBI can affect it. Anyway, the polls from America suggest that it isn’t. The polls suggest that Hillary Clinton should have an easy stroll to a majority in the Electoral College. If so, Wall Street, currencies, and Mexico will breathe a big sigh of relief. But it’s never over until it’s over, and so we all await Wednesday morning. In the interim, only the brave and foolhardy will enter the central banksters casinos. We long ago left capitalism for the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, communist money, and central bank rigged stock and commodity markets.

We stand today at a crossroads: One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other leads to total extinction. Let us hope we have the wisdom to make the right choice.

Woody Allen

FBI Absolves Clinton Again, Two Days Ahead of U.S. Election

 November 6, 2016 — 8:31 PM GMT Updated on November 7, 2016 — 12:58 AM GMT
The FBI’s decision to stick by its finding that Hillary Clinton didn’t commit a crime in her handling of e-mails as secretary of state again roiled the U.S. presidential race and markets, two days before the election. Rival Donald Trump implored his followers to overcome a “rigged system” that he said protected Clinton from prosecution.

FBI Director James Comey informed Congress in a letter on Oct. 28 that the agency, which had ended its probe in July, was examining new e-mails potentially related to its investigation of Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server. Since then, “the FBI investigative team has been working around the clock to process and review” the material, Comey said in a second letter to members of Congress, dated Sunday. The letter was released by Representative Adam Schiff, a California Democrat.

“During that process, we reviewed all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was Secretary of State,” Comey wrote. “Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.”

Comey’s initial announcement breathed new life into Trump’s candidacy at a time most polls showed Clinton with a wide lead. The race has since tightened, though Clinton maintains a 2.2 percentage-point lead, according to an average of polls by RealClearPolitics.

Mexican Peso Rises With Asian Stocks as FBI Gives Clinton a Pass

November 6, 2016 — 9:18 PM GMT Updated on November 7, 2016 — 6:23 AM GMT
Mexico’s peso gained with Asian equities and U.S. stock index futures after the Federal Bureau of Investigation said it maintains the view that Hillary Clinton’s handling of her e-mails wasn’t a crime. The yen and Swiss franc retreated with gold.

Mexico’s currency, which has tended to strengthen on signs Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s campaign is faltering, was set for its biggest jump since September and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rebounded from a seven-week low ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. The yen sank by the most in two months, U.S. Treasuries fell and gold dropped for the first time in eight days as investors shunned haven assets. Hong Kong’s property developers tumbled after the government stepped up efforts to cool the housing market, while nickel led a rally among industrial metals.

----“The market is viewing the latest Hillary Clinton news as a positive, at least in the short term,” said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $2 billion. “It may still be a close call in the end, but the market for the time being is acting as if some of the uncertainty is gone.”

Hillary Clinton’s Quebec ancestry dates back to New France

Clinton's family ties to Canada make her a distant relative of prominent Quebecers, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, genealogists have said.
Sun., Nov. 6, 2016
MONTREAL — If Hillary Clinton wins Tuesday’s election, Canada’s relationship with the White House could soon be cast as a family affair, thanks to the presidential candidate’s well-documented French-Canadian ancestry.

Clinton’s family ties to Canada stretch back to the days of New France, making her a distant relative of many prominent Quebecers, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Céline Dion, genealogists have noted.

Gail Moreau-Desharnais of the French-Canadian Heritage Society of Michigan has traced a branch of Clinton’s family tree all the way back to the Filles du Roi or “King’s Daughters,” a group of young women who were sent from France in the 17th century to help populate the colony.

Clinton briefly mentioned her maternal grandmother’s French-Canadian roots in her 2003 memoir, “Living History.” But as she researched the connection, Moreau-Desharnais says she was surprised by how deep those roots went.

“She really has a good French-Canadian line,” she said in an interview. “And when you trace her matrilineal line, or female to female to female, her ultimate female ancestor is Jeanne Ducorps, one of the Filles du Roi.”
Ducorps was one of more than 700 women sent to New France — often against their will — by King Louis XIV between 1663 and 1673 to serve as brides for the men in the colony.

Many were orphans or had been abandoned in refuge houses, and were sometimes unfairly labelled “women of ill repute,” according to the president of a historical society dedicated to studying them.

“For the most part (the King’s Daughters) were girls who didn’t have a lot of future in France,” Irene Belleau said in a telephone interview.

But while a small percentage had worked as prostitutes and many were poor, she said others arrived in New France with possessions or furniture, implying a slightly higher status.

What they had in common was a mission: all were given a sum of money and chosen or obligated to come to New France with a “royal mandate” to marry and help populate the colony, which was overwhelmingly male.
And populate they did: Belleau says most of the women found husbands quickly and had a total of 4,459 children, earning them the nickname “mothers of the nation.”

Ducorps is not the only King’s Daughter found in Clinton’s family tree. She also traces her ancestry back to Madeleine Niel, Madeleine Plouard and Catherine Paulo, who were also part of the group.

The tentative biographies compiled by Belleau provide a glimpse into their lives.

Ducorps, who arrived in 1667, married a blacksmith named Martin Masse and had eight children, including at least three who died before reaching adulthood.

Niel, a 16-year-old orphan when she arrived in 1667, married a soldier less than a month later. She and Etienne Charles went on to have 12 children. All but one survived and married.

Paulo, who was an illiterate 18-year old when she married Etienne Campeau, went on to have 15 children, one of whom is considered one of the founders of Fort Detroit.

Although Clinton’s Quebecois ancestry may be interesting, it’s not unique.

Belleau, herself a proud descendant of a King’s Daughter, says some 95 per cent of so-called “old stock” Quebecers can find at least one of the women in her family tree, as can a significant percentage of Canadians and Americans.

An article published in 2008 by the New England Historic Genealogical Society noted that most French-Canadians are distantly related thanks to a small group of 17th century French immigrants.

Author Gary Boyd Roberts pointed out that Clinton is a distant cousin of not only Pierre Elliott Trudeau (and by extension, Justin) but also Dion, writer Jack Kerouac, singer Madonna and actress Angelina Jolie.
Moreau-Desharnais says most of Clinton’s Quebec ancestors migrated to the United States through what is now Windsor, Ont., where many became “the stalwarts who were so prominent in Detroit and helped to make it what it is.”

Betting sites see record wagering on U.S. presidential election

Mon Nov 7, 2016 | 1:31am EST
The raucous, passionate and unpredictable 2016 U.S. presidential election is on track to notch another distinction: the most wagered-upon political event ever.

With many opinion polls showing a tight race just one day before Tuesday's election, record numbers of bettors are pouring millions into online platforms from Ireland to Iowa in the hope of capturing a financial windfall from a victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

UK-based internet betting exchange Betfair said on Sunday its "Next President" market was set to become the most traded it had ever seen and expected to surpass even Brexit, the contentious UK referendum to leave the European Union.

By Sunday, roughly $130 million had been traded on who will become the next U.S. president, compared with $159 million on the Brexit referendum, Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten said. The amount bet so far on the 2016 contest dwarfs the roughly $50 million laid on the 2012 race.

"We think it is because (of) how raw the Brexit (vote) is in people's minds - they're not convinced yet that it's a done deal," Totten said.

Most polls leading into Britain's June 23 referendum predicted Britons would choose to remain in the EU. Instead, they voted to leave by a 52 percent to 48 percent margin.

Betfair's "Next President" market was by far the largest of more than 70 markets on the site related to the U.S. election. As of Friday, some $140 million has been put into play on markets ranging from who will win the popular vote to how many states each party will carry.

On Ireland's Paddy Power, which merged with Betfair earlier this year, the U.S. presidential election "is definitely on course to be the biggest political event," said spokesman Féilim Mac An Iomaire. The site has had about $4.38 million bet on the race so far.

For Paddy Power, sporting events remain the site's "bread and butter," with politics more of a "niche market," Mac An Iomaire said. Nonetheless, he expects the 2016 race to be among the top 10-most-traded events on the site.

Even people with no knowledge of politics know who Trump is, said Mac An Iomaire said, explaining the runaway popularity of the U.S. election in betting markets. "Trump is such a huge celebrity."
Ladbrokes, a UK-based gambling company, said about 5 million pounds, or a little over $6 million, had been bet on the 2016 presidential election since its markets on the race opened four years ago. A Ladbrokes spokesman said that amount was "at least double" the amount wagered on the 2012 election.

The three sites all reported an 83 percent probability of a Clinton victory on Tuesday. Her probability shot up a few percentage points on Sunday after the FBI stood by its earlier recommendation that no criminal charges were warranted against Clinton in her use of a private email server.

Don’t buy a single vote more than necessary. I’ll be damned if I’m going to pay for a landslide.

Joseph P. Kennedy

At the Comex silver depositories Friday final figures were: Registered 30.46 Moz, Eligible 143.08 Moz, Total 173.54 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today Deutsche Bank, the poster child of what went wrong in global casino banking under disgraced fallen former guru Greenspan and his sidekick Bernocchio.  When the Ebenezer Squids took over banksterism. The whole long article is well worth the read. Here Part 7.
"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything.  We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."

Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.

The Deutsche Bank Downfall How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

By Ullrich Fichtner, Hauke Goos and Martin Hesse
October 28, 2016  11:02 AM
VII. Easy Come, Easy Go
Deutsche Bank's balance sheet and its total results as an investment bank: A sober look at the books.
Several million numbers flow into Deutsche Bank's balance sheet and the most recent annual report for 2015 is 500 pages long. But if you take a closer look at the bank's annual report over the years, you can find numbers that tell the tale of the institution's metamorphosis.
The bank has become much larger since 1994, but it has lost value. It began taking much greater risks, which ultimately proved not to be worth it. The final analysis of Operation "Deutsche Bank Rebirth" is rather sobering.
In 1994, the bank had 73,450 employees, three-quarters of them in Germany. But by 2001, there were 94,782 people working for Deutsche Bank, half of them abroad. In 2007, at the apex of the boom, fully two-thirds of the bank's employees were outside of Germany -- and not even one-third of the company's revenues came from Germany.
The balance sheet climbed from 573 billion deutsche marks in 1994 to 2.2 trillion euros in 2007, an unbelievable expansion. But size alone isn't necessarily indicative of value. The value of a financial institution is determined by its stock price and market capitalization. And here, the results aren't nearly as impressive. There was a time under Breuer and again under Ackermann when the bank's value had temporarily doubled relative to 1994, but today Deutsche Bank is worth less than it was before it completely revamped its approach.
Other numbers provide an indication for why that is. The bank has a completely different internal structure. In 1994, most of the bank's earnings came from traditional commercial banking. But by the 2007 peak of the speculation party, the investment division's share of the bank's earnings, often made with the help of particularly risky deals, had climbed to over 70 percent.
Ackermann's strategy initially seemed successful. At the peak of its success, the bank achieved a 31 percent pre-tax return on equity, which is estimated to be twice as high as it was in 1994. Return on equity measures the profit earned on the investment of the bank's own equity. It was Ackermann's longtime and oft-stated dream to achieve a return of 25 percent. At the time, he was unfairly berated as a greedy, unscrupulous shark. Before 2008, Ackermann's 25 percent wasn't an unusually high return.
What was unusual, and unsavory, were the tricks and the brutality Ackermann used to achieve his target. Return on investment climbs, of course, as profits rise -- but it also rises when the amount of equity invested is lowered. And if both happen at the same time, the bottom line becomes quite attractive indeed.
Ackermann continually demanded that his people buy back Deutsche Bank stock and destroy it. Doing so is not against the law; indeed stock corporations do it quite regularly to reduce their proprietary equity. But seen another way, Ackermann was hurting the company's long-term prospects for the sake of short-term balance sheet figures.
At the beginning of the Ackermann era, the bank's core capital quota stood at 10 percent. By the highpoint of the boom and the onset of the crisis, Ackermann had pushed it down below 9 percent. That means that the bank's capital buffer was shrinking, which increases risk. In the language of the branch, Deutsche Bank was highly leveraged, investing with more of other people's money (debt) and less of its own. At Deutsche, this debt-to-equity ratio would sometimes reach as high as 40:1 in those days.
An additional risk that the bank took on during this time can only be found in more recent annual reports: Penalties or damages accrued as a result of illegitimate or illegal deals. Such bombs only go off after a significant amount of time has passed and their effect can first be seen in an appendix to the 2012 annual report. There, one notices that the line item for "operational risks/litigation" exploded from 822 million to 2.6 billion euros. At the time, investigations into the Libor affair were ongoing and penalties were looming. But such risks continued to rise in subsequent years -- and continue to do so.
Ackermann has defended himself by saying that, until the financial crisis, he intentionally crept as close as possible to the line of what was permissible and prides himself on that approach. With capital, with leveraging, with risk, he took advantage of the full extent of his leeway. Otherwise, he says, the bank wouldn't have been competitive. But was the strategy worth it?
The numbers in the annual reports help provide an answer to that question too. Both the high profits and most of the legal problems were produced by the Global Markets division under the leadership of Anshu Jain. In the 15 years between 2001 and 2015, Global Markets earned 25 billion after taxes. But a majority of the more than 12 billion euros that have been paid out by the bank since 2012 due to the bank's legal troubles must be subtracted from this: fines, damages and penalties. The bank has set aside an additional 5.5 billion euros, but analysts believe that the bank could need up to 10 billion for the payments.
That, though, would mean that almost the entire profit earned by Global Markets would disappear. The huge investment bank experiment would result in a goose egg, or, even worse, a lasting burden. Because in order to keep the traders busy, other divisions were neglected. Investment in the bank's infrastructure, in its computer systems, was insufficient. It was only due to regulatory pressure that the bank recently invested a billion euros in improved control and security systems.

Why pay money to have your family tree traced; go into politics and your opponents will do it for you.


Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Adding hydrogen to graphene

Date: November 3, 2016

Source: Institute for Basic Science

Summary: Adding hydrogen to graphene could improve its future applicability in the semiconductor industry, when silicon leaves off. Researchers have recently gained further insight into this chemical reaction. These findings extend the knowledge of the fundamental chemistry of graphene and bring scientists perhaps closer to realizing new graphene-based materials.

Adding hydrogen to graphene could improve its future applicability in the semiconductor industry, when silicon leaves off. Researchers at the Center for Multidimensional Carbon Materials (CMCM), within the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) have recently gained further insight into this chemical reaction. Published in Journal of the American Chemical Society, these findings extend the knowledge of the fundamental chemistry of graphene and bring scientists perhaps closer to realizing new graphene-based materials.
Understanding how graphene can chemically react with a variety of chemicals will increase its utility. Indeed, graphene has superior conductivity properties, but it cannot be directly used as an alternative to silicon in semiconductor electronics because it does not have a bandgap, that is, its electrons can move without climbing any energy barrier. Hydrogenation of graphene opens a bandgap in graphene, so that it might serve as a semiconductor component in new devices.
While other reports describe the hydrogenation of bulk materials, this study focuses on hydrogenation of single and few-layers thick graphene. IBS scientists used a reaction based on lithium dissolved in ammonia, called the "Birch-type reaction," to introduce hydrogen onto graphene through the formation of C-H bonds.
The research team discovered that hydrogenation proceeds rapidly over the entire surface of single-layer graphene, while it proceeds slowly and from the edges in few-layer graphene. They also showed that defects or edges are actually necessary for the reaction to occur under the conditions used, because pristine graphene with the edges covered in gold does not undergo hydrogenation.
Using bilayer and trilayer graphene, IBS scientists also discovered that the reagents can pass between the layers, and hydrogenate each layer equally well. Finally, the scientists found that the hydrogenation significantly changed the optical and electric properties of the graphene.
"A primary goal of our Center is to undertake fundamental studies about reactions involving carbon materials. By building a deep understanding of the chemistry of single-layer graphene and a few layer graphene, I am confident that many new applications of chemically functionalized graphenes could be possible, in electronics, photonics, optoelectronics, sensors, composites, and other areas," notes Rodney Ruoff, corresponding author of this paper, CMCM director, and UNIST Distinguished Professor at the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST).

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October

DJIA: 18142  +32 Up NASDAQ:  5189 +31 Up. SP500: 2126 +46 Up.

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