Thursday, 24 November 2016

Thanksgiving Day In America.

Baltic Dry Index. 1224 -08   Brent Crude 48.98

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Eurasian Snow cover. (How bad will winter be?)

Some hae meat and canna eat,
   And some wad eat that want it;
But we hae meat, and we can eat,
   Sae let the Lord be thankit.

Robert Burns. The Selkirk Grace.

For Americans the great feast day has arrived. Swamp draining can await next week. For today it’s all about loading up on turkey and trimmings, to prepare for all out retail war tomorrow. To all celebrating Thanksgiving, have a wonderful day.

Below, more on Trumpmania. Hot air lifts all, but will an early cold winter crash Trumpmania?

The charts say hot air, and little else, is pushing these markets higher

By Sven Henrich Published: Nov 23, 2016 1:21 p.m. ET
On Nov. 4 I outlined the performance issues in the broader indexes and questioned whether we were actually in a bull market. On Monday, many indices made new all-time highs and I find myself raising the same question again. Before you question my sanity, let me outline the evidence.
First, note what actually happened. On the night of the election, S&P 500 SPX, +0.08% futures actually dropped below November 2014 highs. Futures were lock limit down, and circuit breakers stopped the descent. Yet, as with Brexit, overnight magic happened and all damage was erased by the open. The markets then proceeded onto a vertical up tear, pushing small-cap futures 18% off the lows in a mere nine days. An impressive feat by any standard, but if you think these are signs of stable markets, consider my thesis: Markets have been rising on hot air, and technical charts retain heavily bearish structures despite new highs.
The most common explanation for the rally was attributed to the conciliatory tone of Donald Trump's acceptance speech. But the real driver of the rally has been based on the same element that every single major rally since the 2009 lows has been based on: Government stimulus and/or central-bank intervention.
Consider: In 2009, president Obama came into office and immediately authorized a giant stimulus package. It was labeled the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and ended up costing over $800 billion. Fast forward eight years later with $10 trillion in additional debt and a $4.5 trillion FOMC balance sheet and here comes president-elect Donald Trump proposing measures (tax cuts, stimulus spending and expanding the military) that would exceed even the 2009 program. As a point of highlighting the magnitude of these programs: The 2009 stimulus package alone was larger than the 50-year running budget of NASA.

Black Friday Merchants Expect Americans to Exhale After Election

Lindsey Rupp and Sarah Very November 24, 2016 — 12:01 AM EST
Now that Election Tuesday is over, retailers are counting on Americans turning their attention to Black Friday.

The National Retail Federation projects that about 137.4 million consumers will make purchases in stores or online over the four-day weekend that starts on Thanksgiving, marking the kickoff to the holiday shopping season. The amount Americans have spent has declined in the last three years, slipping 26 percent from 2013 to an average of $299.60 per person last year, according to the trade group.

By most accounts, this holiday season is expected be a boon for retailers. Unemployment, gasoline prices and inflation are low, while wages, home values and the stock market continue to rise. Shoppers have the wherewithal to spend, and now retailers are hoping the holiday season will give them a reason to. Companies such as Kohl’s Corp., Gap Inc. and Barnes & Noble Inc. have said the U.S. presidential election was a major cause of consumers’ recent reluctance to open their wallets. With the outcome settled, they’re expecting the dollars to finally flow.

“We’ve had some, we believe, pent up demand -- just based on the economics of our consumer,” J.C. Penney Co. Chief Executive Officer Marvin Ellison said in an interview this month. “We’re anticipating we’ll see pent-up demand released, and it being post-election will only help that.”

U.S. retail spending is expected to rise 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion in November and December, the Washington-based NRF estimates. Retailers are poised to take full advantage of the Thanksgiving holiday period, now known by some as Black Week, which accounts for about 15 percent of holiday spending, according to the trade group.

Thanksgiving Openings

J.C. Penney will open its doors at 3 p.m. on Thursday to reach shoppers before they tuck into their Thanksgiving feasts. EBay Inc. is trying to push the selling even earlier: It rebranded the day before Thanksgiving as Mobile Wednesday, using discounts to target traveling Americans. The sales will stretch through the weekend, with online and brick-and-mortar companies offering deals for Cyber Monday.

Siberian Snow Theory Points to an Early and Cold Winter in U.S.

November 23, 2016 — 10:01 AM GMT
For those cursing the unseasonable November chill, there’s an ominous sign up north. It suggests this winter will be long and cold, according to one eminent scientist.

He’s the father of the “Siberian Snow Theory.” In a nutshell, he argues that the more snow covering the ground in northern Eurasia, the colder we can expect it down below. Sadly, Siberia is looking pretty white already.

Judah Cohen, a renowned MIT climatologist, has been working on this theory for 17 years, despite skepticism from some U.S. government weather experts. Cohen, who figures his theory has been right 75 percent of the time, spies all the makings of an early, cold winter.

“This year, we have had this very textbook situation,” Cohen said.

The first blast of Siberian-spurred cold could come in December this year, instead of the usual January, according to Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research,a unit of Verisk Analytics, which works with governments and financial-services and insurance companies.

While it isn’t certain where the frigid air will land -- North America, Asia or Europe -- Cohen is predicting cold will envelop more of the U.S. than government forecasters expect. Cold, rain and snow could extend from the upper Great Plains to Florida.

Holiday travelers will hope he is wrong, as will retailers who rely on last-minute shoppers who could be deterred by snow and slush. But those who make money from natural gas, whose price dropped because of warm weather, may be in for a treat.

“If he is right that would be terrific,” said Teri Viswanath, managing director for natural gas at Pira Energy Group in New York. “I hope he’s right."

Deficits don't matter until one day they do, but we are still far from that day. Since August 1971, when Nixon ended the dollar-gold link, we've all been operating on fiat money, communist money, and there's plenty more where that comes from. One day sometime ahead, we will hit fiat money revulsion, but there's little sign of that right now, especially since we just hit Trumpmania in the US stock markets. On fiat, all decisions are political. One day it fails but not now. The Great Pretence goes on.
Just keep on repeating "every day in every way I'm getting better and better." You’re sure to feel much better, more thankful.
This Thanksgiving Day, some food for thought. A glimpse of the future perhaps.

Solar-Panel Roads to Be Built Across Four Continents Next Year

November 24, 2016 — 4:00 AM GMT
Electric avenues that can transmit the sun’s energy onto power grids may be coming to a city near you.
A subsidiary of Bouygues SA has designed rugged solar panels, capable of withstand the weight of an 18-wheeler truck, that they’re now building into road surfaces. After nearly five years of research and laboratory tests, they’re constructing 100 outdoor test sites and plan to commercialize the technology in early 2018.

“We wanted to find a second life for a road,” said Philippe Harelle, the chief technology officer at Colas SA’s Wattway unit, owned by the French engineering group Bouygues. “Solar farms use land that could otherwise be for agriculture, while the roads are free.”

As solar costs plummet, panels are being increasingly integrated into everyday materials. Last month Tesla Motors Inc. surprised investors by unveiling roof shingles that double as solar panels. Other companies are integrating photovoltaics into building facades. Wattway joins groups including Sweden’s Scania and Solar Roadways in the U.S. seeking to integrate panels onto pavement.
To resist the weight of traffic, Wattway layers several types of plastics to create a clear and durable casing. The solar panel underneath is an ordinary model, similar to panels on rooftops. The electrical wiring is embedded in the road and the contraption is topped by an anti-slip surface made from crushed glass.

A kilometer-sized testing site began construction last month in the French village of Tourouvre in Normandy. The 2,800 square meters of solar panels are expected to generate 280 kilowatt-hours at peak, enough to power all the public lighting in a town of 5,000 for a year, according to the company.

The electricity generated by this stretch of solar road will feed directly into the grid. Another test site is being used to charge electric vehicles. A third will power a small hydrogen production plant. Wattway has also installed its panels to light electronic billboards and is working on links to street lights.

The next two sites will be in Calgary in Canada and in the U.S. state of Georgia. Wattway also plans to build them in Africa, Japan and throughout the European Union.

“We need to test for all kinds of different traffic and climate conditions,” Harelle said. “I want to find the limits of it. We think that maybe it will not be able to withstand a snow plow.”

The potential fragility joins cost as a potential hurdle.

Ye hypocrites! are these your pranks?
To murder men and give God thanks!
Desist, for shame!-proceed
no further;
God won't accept your thanks for Murther!

Robert Burns 1793.

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 30.90 Moz, Eligible 147.43 Moz, Total 178.33 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, is it all over for old Banca Three Card Monte di Siena? The world’s oldest bank is going once, going twice,…. If it does fail, watch for the Berlin Broadcasting Corporation’s Fake 24 Hour News to blame it on Brexit. On CNN in America, blame it on Putin.

Italy's Third-Biggest Bank Is Running Out of Time

Edward Robinson Sonia Sirletti  and Tom Beardsworth
November 22, 2016 — 7:01 PM EST November 23, 2016 — 5:01 AM EST
The end game may have finally arrived for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA.
For seven years, Italy’s third-biggest bank has repeatedly skidded to the edge of collapse, only to be bailed out by investors or the government. Now Chief Executive Officer Marco Morelli has until year-end to raise 5 billion euros ($5.3 billion) of capital -- seven times its current market value -- and offload almost 28 billion euros in soured loans to save the world’s oldest lender.
 “Time is running out,” said Stefano Girola, who helps manage about 40 billion euros at Syz Asset Management in Lugano, Switzerland. “It’s like a huge puzzle, and one missing piece will doom the whole project."
As part of the plan, Monte Paschi is proposing a voluntary swap of 4.3 billion euros of subordinated bonds to reduce the amount of stock it would need to sell. The bank expects holders of junior bonds to swap about a quarter of the available notes for equity in the first stage of its rescue plan. It may also announce an offer for deeply subordinated securities known as Fresh bonds at 23.2 percent of face value, subject to review by authorities, the bank said in a report Wednesday.
The offer and the wider plan need to be approved by shareholders on Thursday in a meeting at the lender’s headquarters in the Tuscan city of Siena. Investors are so frustrated with Monte Paschi’s recurrent crises that there’s concern that the bank may not muster the quorum of 20 percent of its stockholders required to call a vote.
"Given the terms of the swap -- or rather the fact the the terms are not really known -- I would consider 1 billion of turnout a quite successful result," said Jacopo Ceccatelli, CEO of Marzotto SIM SpA, a Milan-based broker-dealer. “At this point it’s really difficult to say whether this would be sufficient to successfully go through with the capital increase."
Once past that hurdle, Morelli will face the bigger challenge: persuading new investors to commit money to an institution that’s seen its stock fall by 99 percent since 2009, recorded 15 billion euros in losses and been branded Europe’s shakiest major bank by regulators. He can’t count on the state to come to the rescue should he fail, because new European Union rules require bondholders and stockholders to absorb losses in the event of a bailout, an outcome that could cause a political firestorm.
An official at Monte Paschi declined to comment on the capital raising plans.
If the bank fails to right itself, the shock would be felt through the Italian financial system and possibly beyond. The euro zone’s third-biggest economy is straining under some 360 billion euros in soured loans, the equivalent of a fifth of gross domestic product. In July, even the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled concern about Italian banks’ declining share prices, shrinking margins and deteriorating loan books.
Overhanging Monte Paschi’s deal is the Dec. 4 referendum backed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to streamline the nation’s sclerotic government. Renzi’s pledge to step down if the vote fails -- as polls suggest it might -- has heightened the atmosphere of uncertainty.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?

Graphene Solar Absorber Could Enable Cheap Thermal Desalination

Posted 21 Nov 2016 | 20:00 GMT
To those uninitiated to the costs of thermal desalination of water, the idea of simply vaporizing water to take out the impurities seems like it would offer a limitless supply of fresh water just by using it on the world’s oceans. However, the energy costs for thermal desalination has been estimated at around 80 megawatt-hours per megaliter of water produced, rendering it too costly for just about everyone except Gulf States rich in oil and desperate for fresh water.

One way around these high-energy costs has been thought to be solar-powered thermal desalination, which can help produce clean water in remote areas and developing countries. However, the solar approach to water desalination is rather limited in the amount of fresh water it can produce and is further hampered by the need for optical concentrators and for thermal insulation, both of which have limited the large-scale use of this approach.

Now researchers at Nanjing University in China have developed a solar absorber material made from graphene oxide that enables a solar approach to desalinating water without the need for solar concentrators and thermal insulation. The result could be a low-cost, portable water desalination solution ideally suited for developing countries and remote areas.

“It is the first time that high solar steam efficiency under one sun has been achieved without any external thermal insulation,” explains Jia Zhu, a researcher at Nanjing University, in an e-mail interview with IEEE Spectrum. “Plus it is highly foldable and low cost, feasible for large-scale deployment.”

Previous solar thermal desalination suffered from an almost paradoxical phenomenon: You want to have a solar absorber in direct contact with the water to ensure the most efficient transfer of energy between the two. However, in practice all that unheated water next to the water in contact with the absorber leads to a huge amount of thermal loss, requiring a lot of thermal insulation.

In research described in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the Nanjing researchers overcame this problem by not placing their graphene-oxide solar absorber in direct contact with the bulk of the water. Instead a thermal insulator made from polystyrene foam separates the water and solar absorber. A two-dimensional channel made from cellulose is wrapped around the thermal insulator with the bottom side of the cellulose in contact with the water and the solar absorber on the top. The water circulates around this 2D channel through capillary action and gets heated by the absorber without the rest of the water dissipating the heat.

 The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October

DJIA: 18142  +32 Up NASDAQ:  5189 +31 Up. SP500: 2126 +46 Up.

No comments:

Post a Comment